Your Box Office Predictions for 'The Wolverine', 'The Conjuring', 'Turbo' and 'Fruitvale Station'

your-preds-wolverineDue to a minor glitch, the predictions went live a little late yesterday and it turns out only 102 of you got your predictions in. What, you didn't like the new leaderboard? That's 34 fewer predictions than the week before, what gives?

Anyhow, I was actually a little surprised to see the reader predictions a little higher than Laremy's for The Wolverine, though it seems $67.2 million is the current forecast for the film so perhaps it will manage to go that high, though that still has to be a little disappointing compared to the $85 million X-Men Origins: Wolverine made in 2009 and it didn't have 3-D to inflate its box-office total.

Otherwise, only $300,000 separates the reader predictions from Laremy's for all three of the other films on the prediction board -- The Conjuring, Turbo and Fruitvale Station.

If you haven't had a chance to do so yet, check out the new leaderboard page right here where you'll see the current point standings as well as the accuracy rankings.

I have included Laremy's predictions and the average reader predictions directly below and I'll be back on Sunday with box office estimates.

Laremy's Predictions

  • The Wolverine - $66 million
  • The Conjuring - $22.5 million
  • Turbo - $11.9 million
  • Fruitvale Station - $4.5 million

Your Predictions

  • The Wolverine - $67.9 million
  • The Conjuring - $22.2 million
  • Turbo - $12.1 million
  • Fruitvale Station - $4.8 million
  • andyluvsfilms

    Maybe people thought they had participated without realising there was a glitch, when i initially submitted my figures the script error message didn't exactly stand out. I'm sure next week things will return to normal and then some.

    • Django

      Ah, was that what that 'Oops!' message was?

      • andyluvsfilms

        You got 'Oops!'? Mine happened late at night so the language was slightly stronger ;-)

        • Django

          0_0 Haha, yeah mine had a Forrest Gump picture, no bad language.

  • Josh McLaughlin

    I figure that an $80 million opening for "The Wolverine" would be a safe estimate.

  • Stephen Jay

    I was interested in the range of the predictions (lowest and highest for each film), so I wrote some code to go through the predictions. Here's what I came up with:

    Fruitvale Station: 2.1 to 9
    The Conjuring: 16.7 to 34.8
    The Wolverine: 52 to 83.3
    Turbo: 4.0 to 19.5

  • Ian

    I didn't run into any issues posting predictions, but my guess for the reduced numbers would be that the fanboy crowd predicting Wolverine numbers doesn't give two shits about Fruitvale Station and didn't care to predict anything for it (I'm the opposite; I'm definitely seeing Fruitvale and have no interest in The Wolverine). The holdovers were also really blah this week too. Obviously you have to include all the wide releases, and it's fun to include high profile limited releases too (predicting a PTA for Blue Jasmine this week would have been interesting since Woody's movies always open extremely well in limited release), but it might be worth considering ignoring the holdovers when they aren't very compelling. It will be interesting to see how The Conjuring holds up this week considering the nature of horror, but I don't care whatsoever what Turbo does in its second weekend and to be honest I can't imagine many do unless they work for Fox or DWA. Just something to consider especially once we get into August and September where most of the opening numbers (and the movies themselves) will be ugly to begin with.

  • Winchester

    Looks like I went too bullish on Wolverine. I had thought maybe after a few weeks of animated fare a (relatively) star driven franchise film might have drawn in some extra folks who were fed up with animation and looking for some Tentpole type stuff.

    But early indications are I was slightly wrong. Hey, after the reception the first Wolverine film got though I think anything over $60 probably qualifies it as a 'win' since it apparently also was cheaper to produce than the 2009 film anyway.

    I did have issues the first time I tried to post numbers though but came back later and it was fine. As to the differing range it maybe that limited openings and expansions are so potentially wide ranging. I think it's harder to guess limited than wide myself and limited expansions. Several films have made recors and near record small limited openings and then withered on the vine when they try to go beyond that.