YOU VOTE: Predict the Oscar Noms – Best Picture to Best Director
What five films will compete for the top spot of 2008?
The final "You Vote" category is upon us as you now have the chance to vote on the Best Picture category as well as all previous five categories in this one post.
In terms of Best Picture, it is one that could either be exciting and filled with snubs and deserving picks or it could be boring and the Academy could go with the five films that seem to have found their way to the top of the pack over the past few weeks. Taking a look back at my first predictions for the category back on November 20 my take on Best Picture looked like this:
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Milk
- Revolutionary Road
- Slumdog Millionaire
- The Dark Knight
My most recent predictions look like this:
- Slumdog Millionaire
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Milk
- The Dark Knight
- Frost/Nixon
Only one film has changed as Frost/Nixon replaced Revolutionary Road, but I am still not convinced things are going to turn out as simple as they look. Although the five films I have predicted most recently are certainly the safe bet as they are the five films the majority of film pundits most agree will be at the top of the pack. Just check out Gold Derby's latest Buzzmeter poll. But is it really this easy?
I want to save some of my views on this category for my Wednesday Oscar Prediction article and I don't want to sway your opinion too much so let me just throw a few questions to consider at you before you place your votes:
- Why does Frost/Nixon deserve a Best Picture nomination?
- When was the last time you heard any Oscar pundit actually talk or dedicate any real time to Milk?
- Is The Reader making a late season run?
- Will the Academy be the one group to recognize Revolutionary Road?
- Is it possible for both The Dark Knight and WALL•E to be nominated for Best Picture?
Now those are just questions to get you thinking, nothing I particularly believe, but a few thoughts that have been running through my head as I get ready to make my final predictions tomorrow.
As for your predictions below, remember, the picks you make below are for who you THINK will be nominated and NOT who you want to be nominated. I have also included the previous Best Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Director polls in this post so you have one place to return to check the results and get your votes in if you haven't done so already. The voting ends on January 22 at 2 AM, the nominees will be announced shortly thereafter right here on RopeofSilicon.com.
| BEST PICTURE PLEASE SELECT FIVE NAMES IN EACH POLL |
Best Picture
Total Voters: 743  Loading ... |
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| BEST ACTOR & ACTRESS PLEASE SELECT FIVE NAMES IN EACH POLL | |
Best Actor
Total Voters: 1,239 Loading ... | Best Actress
Total Voters: 1,249 Loading ... |
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| BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR & ACTRESS PLEASE SELECT FIVE NAMES IN EACH POLL | |
Supporting Actor
Total Voters: 1,340 Loading ... | Supporting Actress
Total Voters: 1,239 Loading ... |
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| BEST DIRECTOR PLEASE SELECT FIVE NAMES IN EACH POLL |
Best Director
Total Voters: 1,077 Loading ... |
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Previous articles for each category can be found using the links below:
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In all likelihood, it'll be:
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
Frost Nixon
The Dark Knight
I won't bet against any surprises though. Frost Nixon and The Dark Knight are the ones on thin ice, while the other three I believe are solid locks. I'm holding out hope that many voting members will be able to overcome their bias against animation, because that is pretty much sole reason that will keep Wall-E out of a spot in the big table.
I would love nothing more than to see both TDK and Wall-E in the best picture category. There's no questioning the fact that both are worthy candidates and their inclusion would bring praise, while the exclusion of one-maybe both-will incite the masses to loathe the Academy even more. It pretty much comes down to whether many voters will be able to look at both of them as FILMS, rather than a COMIC BOOK FILM and an ANIMATED FILM.
In the end, I think it'll be: Slumdog, Button, Milk, Doubt, and TDK. But I won't be surprised if TDK is edged out by Frost/Nixon or The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
Frost Nixon
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
The Reader
Doubt
Slumdog
Benjamin Button
Milk
TDK
Wall-E
however, if bias towards certain genres persists(which I think will be the case)..it'll be
Slumdog
Benjamin
Milk
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL•E
but I hope that the reader get nominated to…
If the academy have still credibility will nominate revolutionary road and likely will win.It's the best movie this year along with slumdog.The others is something we've seen over and over again.
There will be a plethora of surprises once the nominations are announced. It has been a crazy 2008 with all sorts of barriers and walls coming down, and I see the Oscar Nominations this Thurs to follow suit. Slumdog, Button, and Milk are definite locks. The remaining 2 slots I believe will come down to these 4 films: Wall-E, TDK, The Reader, and Frost/Nixon. I'm hoping it'll be TDK and Wall-E. If one of those two misses out (mainly because of to inherent biases), expect the director of the film that misses out to get a spot as a best director nominee.
I think the final five will be:
Slumdog
Button
Milk
The Reader
Frost/Nixon
I won't be surprised though If Wall-E and TDK crashes the party, and I will salute the Academy if they do
I think it will be Slumdog, Button, The Reader, Frost/Nixon, and Milk. That in all likelihood will be the nominees. I hope Wall-E does make it and if it does, the cork is coming off this bottle of 20yr old scotch in my wine cabinet. Unfortunately, I think it won't come to that.
I surprised that so many of you think The Dark Knight is going to lose its spot to the Reader. Yes The Reader is the more oscar friendly on the surface but The Dark Knight's 94% on rotten tomatoes and $531 million box office take is going to mean something to the academy. The Dark Knight is not going to win per say but will get nominate like genre films with lot of critical and commercial support (The Sixth Sense, Ghost, Lord of The Rings trilogy.) If anything Frost/Nixon will be replaced by The Wrestler but the five frontrunners are pretty solid as far as support goes.
Here is what should be the top 5:
1. Gran Torino
2. The Dark Knight
3. Slumdog Millionaire
4. Milk
5. Revolutionary Road
Here is what WILL be the top 5:
1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. Milk
4. Revolutionary Road
5. Gran Torino
Yeah – James Franco in Milk for the final spot in supporting.
This year is incredibly diffucult to predict. With all snf my gut feelings here is what I think we'll be the final 5…
BEST PICTURE
-Slumdog Millionarie
-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
-Milk
-Frost/Nixon
-The Dark Knight
Slumdog and Benjamin are locks. Milk has edged over and is ALMOST a lock, but im a little worried about that one. Frost/Nixon was brillant and theres always almost a political movie in there ex: The Queen. TDK is because of LOTR, Titanic, etc. The Dark Knight is a rare movie and the academy is likely to recognize it. The question is…will The Reader boot TDK out of the last slot?????? I hope Doubt will be in there…but DOUBT it…:-)
If I were part of the academy this would be my 5 picks
-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
-Revoluntary Road
-Doubt
-The Dark Knight
-Slumdog Millionarie
*Haven't seen MILK or THE READER
I LOVVVVVEEEEEDDD Doubt and really wish it'd be in the final 5. That movie was my best pic of 2008. Ben Button I think deserves it due the magic that movie brought to the audience. Road was just amazing and great acting. TDK is TDK. Slumdog is a great underdog movie
One more question:
Do you think Slumdog is AMAZING? I mean I thought it was one of the best and extremely well done…but i dont understand how it is winning every award and pleasing everyone. Great movie but i mean come on…its not a masterpiece. I just dont understand it
Tell me your thoughts on my predictions/choices and my questions
Here's what will happen:
Button
Slumdog
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
What should happen if it was my call:
Slumdog
The Reader
Wall-E
TDK
Doubt
Everyone is talking about how there's only that "5th spot" up for grabs. The way I see it, only 3 are sure locks and those are Slumdog, Button,and Milk. The others are in a free-for-all for those last two. I'm calling it and in a year of breakthroughs, TDK and Wall-E will land those 2 "up for grabs" spots, and the executives in ABC will be doing cartwheels all day Thursday.
Christian Bale should be in the race for best actor. Heath did an amazing job…however so good that Christian's work is often overlooked.
BP:
I'd say these three are locks:
Slumdog
Button
Milk
May take the other two spots:
TDK (got nom. for DAG and WAG awards so it has a chance)
Frost/Nixon (also nom. for SAG, DAG and WAG also)
My edge other two out:
Doubt (strong acting, SAG and WAG award noms )
Walle (although animation, it has one the 2nd most BP's this year)
As for Sup. Actor the locks are:
Heath Ledger
Most likely:
Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Josh Brolin
Robert downing Jr.
Battle for the 5th spot:
James Franco (great role but the disadvantage is that Josh Brolin had a stronger role making Franco slightly left behind, rare 2 from the same movie nom. in the same spot)
Dev Patel (movie getting a lot of hype, won many "breakout" awards, disadvantage is that its technically a lead part and its not a super-challenging role)
Shoo-in predictions (I think the SAG/Producer/Director's Guild Awards are always good bellweathers for nominations, if not wins)
Winners (or close calls) are markedwith an asterisik
Picture:
Slumdog *
Frost/Nixon
Doubt
Benjamin Button
Milk
(and if Doubt doesn't make the cut, then Vicki Christina Barcelona will)
Actor:
Rourke *
Penn *
Eastwood
Langella
Pitt
Actress:
Streep *
Winslet *
Hathaway
Jolie
Leo
Supporting Actor:
Ledger *
PS Hoffman
Downey
Brolin
Patel
Supporting Actress:
Winslet *
Cruz *
Davis
Adams
Henson
Director:
Boyle *
Van Zant
Howard
Fincher
Nolan
Hey Brad: After the nominations, if Winslet DOES grab a nod in both of the actress slots, you should check to see what the percentage is for Actresses nominated for leading and supporting in the same year WITHOUT winning either (the only one I remember is Signourney Weaver. And while I'd like to say she was robbed, Jodie Foster and Geena Davis did great jobs and were equally deserving. It will be interesting to see how many actresses or actors nominated for two categories actually lost both times (talk about tough).
Perhaps the Academy should think about just changing the nominee status to winner status and give all 5 final contenders (in each category) and award — after all, they DID gain significant notice from out of thousands of films released each year.
Did I just read a post above correctly? Christian Bale for best actor in TDK? It's a good thing Heath was great in that film, and it more than made one forget about Bale's atrocious Batman. And don't even get me started with his "worse than fingernails on chalkboard" Batman voice.
Anyway, the BP noms I believe will be:
Slumdog, Button, Milk, Frost/Nixon, and Doubt.
Frost/Nixon and Doubt I believe are on shaky ground because The Reader, Wall-E, and TDK are right there. I expect a handful of BIG surprises on Thursday
In went on the "other" cathegory because I think "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" can have a bigger appearance than your prediction of only a nod in screenplay and supporting actress.
I believe Javier Bardem has a chance (even if remote) and that Woody Allen may get a nod in Director.
It was out a few weeks ago, but then came the Globes and that best picture win can carry some last minute waves.
I predict…..
Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Director
David Fincher
Christopher Nolan
Ron Howard
Gus Van Sant
Danny Boyle
Actor
Clint Eastwood
Frank Langella
Sean Penn
Brad Pitt
Mickey Rourke
Actress
Anne Hathaway
Sally Hawkins
Angelina Jolie
Meryl Streep
Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)
Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin
Robert Downey, Jr.
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Heath Ledger
Dev Patel
Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz
Viola Davis
Taraji P. Henson
Marisa Tomei
Kate Winslet (The Reader)
Original Screenplay
Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wall-E
Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
& I expect a few surprises that very few called. [ like Laura Linney last year ]
Picture: I think that The Dark Knight will get left out (too genre) and that Doubt will squeak in over Revolutionary Road, but maybe I'm crazy.
I think there will be two nominated Directors whose films didn't make Best Picture: Clint Eastwood and Chris Nolan.
I think that Eastwood will also get a Best Actor nom, and that Brad Pitt will be left out.
I somehow can't see either Jolie or Hawkins getting Best Actress noms; I go with Blanchett (for BB), Hathaway, Leo, Streep and Winslet (for RR).
For Supporting Actor, I go with Ledger, Hoffman, Downey Jr, Brolin and Patel.
For Supporting Actress, I go for Druz, Davis, Henson, Tomei and Winslet (for Reader).
Probably going to happen:
Button
Slumdog
TDK
Milk
Fros/Nixon
I HOPE HAPPENS:
TDK
Button
Gran Torino
Frost/Nixon
WALL-E
(doubt it though)
I really don't think slumdog is as great as everyone says. I almost despise it now hearing so much from ppl saying "Its AMAZING! BEST PICTURE!" I mean come one, Button and TDK, I atleast thought were better made films that had art, contrast, and a really moving emotional story. Slumdog was weird for me. I don't know that is my opinion.
JOE: Waitaminute: Let me get this straight. A movie about a boy and his brother growing up in poverty, which involves the attempt to escape said poverty (via bad choices and/or a twist of good fortune) and an ongoing romantic fixation with a beautiful woman strikes you as weird…but a movie in which a vigilante runs around in a batsuit and fights criminals who dress in equally odd fashion (Scarecrow, the Joker) and a movie about a guy aging backwards _doesn't_ strike you as odd and out of the ordinary. Okay. Got it. Where do you live again (universe number one, or number two)?
Dt Shindler ur too harsh on poor joe…I mean he is a true holywood follower…realife stories which give hope and tell a story of chance to find a true following and not money will be weird for him…dont blame him blame the blind following for the vigilante that has plagued everyone in 2008…
Well, the nominees are out! I did see TDK being left out and the reader squeezing in. I am a little disappointed with some choices…here they are:
1. Kate Winslet for The Reader in a leading role not supporting
-I know she was more of a lead in that movie but now she is up
with Meryl Streep and Hataway which i wanted them to win..and
she will. I would of also like to see her get nominated for her
performance in Rev. Road
2. Rev. Road ONLY 3 nominees!!!! That is heart-breaking…
tho i am happy Michael Shannon got in there for supp. nod!!!
But come on…NO production design and NO score!!! AND Leo
got screwed…he was unbelivable in this movie.
3. The Wrestler
-HAPPY for Rourke and Tomei…
BUT NO screenplay nod? NO director nod? NO BRUCE SPRINGSTEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
HIS SONG WAS THE BEST OF THE YEAR! WHAT THE HELL?
4. Doubt
-5 nods is good…but no score nod? and although i knew it
NO BEST PIC!!!
5. Clint-Gran Torino
AHhhhhh…saw it coming but he was amazing in that movie.
I guess the academy is sick of Clint.
6. No screenplay nod for Vicky OR burn after reading OR rachel getting married????
AND REV. ROAD!!!
7. TDK-no need to comment