What Will be Summer 2008's Big Box-Office Winner?
A couple of guesses at the top five...
So what's that leave us? By my estimation we have four real contenders: Iron Man, Indiana Jones, Narnia and the dark horse Hancock. If I was to wager a guess, I would say it's gonna look like this:
Trying to pick a fifth film is a bit tough, but if I had to I would say rounding out the top five would be The Dark Knight.
However, seeing how I am not the RopeofSilicon Box-Office Oracle I decided to turn to our resident "expert" Laremy Legel and get his opinion. Here's what he had to say:
The truth is I've been terrible at Oraclin' lately; but in my defense it's been a real pig grading contest. Films like 88 Minutes, Street Kings, and Drillbit Taylor have made me very bitter and sapped all my accuracy. However, I just need to look at May and I get happy again. But therein lies the problem for my May contenders… the month is PACKED!
Which is why I can't take a May movie to triumph. Let's start at the bottom though…
#5 Batman Begins opened at around $50m against Mr. and Mrs. Smith back in 2005. The competition this time? Mamma Mia! and Space Chimps. No, I don't think they're too worried over at Warner Bros. That, plus the extremely effective viral marketing and Ledger buzz will launch The Dark Knight to a $65m opening weekend. From there it should hit $260m domestically; up 20% from the '05 version. That will be enough to finish 5th because the May movies are going to clobber each other. Which leads me to…
#4 Sex and the City. Brad didn't mention it, and he has his reasons. It's rated R. It won't get the theater counts. These are both valid points and I'm not feeling great about this prediction. However, this is legitimate counterprogramming and it comes at the tail end of May when the sailing is smooth and easy. You could make a case that it's only competition comes three weeks later in the form of Get Smart. No, girl dollars are not as sought after as the gents but in a summer loaded with action sequels and superheroes the one true blue date movie will thrive to the tune of $280m.
#3 In third place I've got Iron Man. Am I worried that Indy Jones will hurt it? Yes. They should have moved Jones to June. However, the one HUGE thing Iron Man has going for it is the fact that no one has seen a real movie in five months. I kid you not; it has been a long national nightmare. People are going to be swinging from the rafters to see this one. I see a very nice $315m domestic future.
#2 Our silver medalist this summer is Indiana Jones and the Longest Title Ever. Unlike Iron Man which has industry buzz (those of us who went to the CON) Indiana Jones has old man buzz. And guess who buys the tickets for the family? Yep, old fellas. Wait, check that, the mom's take the kids to a ton of movies too (Hi Horton Hears a Who) – what I mean to say here is that this is the one that everyone over the age of 40 is aware of and won't miss. There, fixed, my rep stays intact. I think $350m is a safe bet here… but it would have done even better if they'd bumped it a few weekends.
#1 My winner? Hancock. It's perfectly placed in July. Yes, The Dark Knight will hurt it but it's far more family friendly at this point. I compare this to Men in Black back in 1997 which easily cleared $300m (when adjusted for inflation). Hellboy II, while boasting an extremely vocal fangroup isn't a nationally important movie. Hancock comes out over the 4th of July weekend and will have a solid month of strong box office. I think it will finish around $375m when the dust clears.
Okay, okay, I admit Brad is probably right and Narnia might foil everything. But something about Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull the very next weekend scares me. I can't shake it.
Regardless, talking about this stuff is still way better than the couple dozen films I've had to endure the past four months. Let the games begin!
Put your anticipation aside and look at it closely. What do you think will take home the top spot at the Summer 2008 box-office?
* The record was beaten the following weekend by Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (4,362).
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1. Hancock
2. The Dark Knight
3. Indiana Jones
4. Iron Man
5. Narnia
I want to play
5.Narnia-THe last film did well and it's more for the kiddies
4.Hancock- I could be underestimating Will, but he gets 4th for now
3.Iron Man- Okay I haven't been to the movies at all this year and Iron Man can't come soon enough, remember how well the original Spiderman did?
2.Indy 4- Honestly after the trailer, not that excited anymore, but the franchise has loyal fans.
1. The Dark Knight- Maybe this is just wishful thinking, definitely my most anticipated, everyone wants to see Ledger's portrayal of the Joker.
But a CGI flick could ruin this Kung FU Panda or Wall E, we'll see.
Hey BeautifulM, I do think it is wishful thinking for Dark Knight, but if it were to come in #1 that would only mean it is better than we expect it to be, which is definitely something to wish for. I just think both Iron Man and Dark Knight will be a little too adult to bring in enough of the kiddie money. We'll see though. :)
Let's cross our fingers.lol
:My Prediction:
1. Narnia 2
2. Indy 4
3. TDK
4. Wall – E
5. Hancock
Peace Out !
1. Indy
It has the broadest fanbase especially age-wise.
2. The Dark Knight
Younger croud than Indy but still in great numbers.
3. Iron Man
Something new whithin the marvel-based movies is what the fans crave.
4. Narnia
The books have many fans and the first movie was pretty good.
5. Hancock
Dont know if its justified but this might disappoint at the box-office unless it gets good PR beforehand.
I wasn't sure whether to put in Wall-E, it might be a contender for the number 4 or 5 spot, never underestimate the consumer power of small children. And the trailers got ME interested as well.
Let me join the fun.
My crystal ball shows…
1. Dark Knight (may be dark, but I predict parents will take their kids anyway; and everyone will be wanting to check out Heath's performance)
2. Indiana Jones 4 (broader audience, but it's second because the last two weren't HUGE box office successes.)
3. Narnia: Prince Caspian
4. Iron Man (I'm hesitant on this one, because I'm one of the few not overly excited about this opening… never was a big Iron Man cartoon fan. )
5. Wall-E (I think this one will sneak in, because as an adult I'm looking forward to this one.)
I'm adding Hancock as a possible threat to knock one of the five above off the list. It's Will Smith and set for a much broader audience; and with a little more "pr" it just might be a bigger hit.
The hardest part about guessing this year's top five is that last year's top four all made over $300 million and #5 (Order of the Phoenix) made $292. I just don't see those kinds of numbers this year for individual films, but I do think several of the films will do quite well ($250+ million). That's what makes it hard.
WALL-E doesn't really appeal to me, but not many Pixar films do in advance. It's always afterwards that I start to love them. However, based on what I see it looks like the most of us have decided on six clear contenders… and then there's Laremy who thinks Sex and the City will have a shot (not likely). :)
All my kids (23 & 15), his male cousins, friends and classmates talk about is the blasted Dark Knight. So there u have it: from where I'm sitting, males 15-25 can't wait to see the Bat. My personal opinion? I think Hancock is the dark horse and can give Indy and Iron Man a run for their money. But, as my husband so well puts it, I'll watch anything starring Will Smith (true that). As far as Narnia, I'll wait until it comes to video so I can watch it with 3 billion kids around.
I meant "without" kids in my previous posting. In my perfect world, all movies would be NC17. But I'm just a mean ol' bat…
Hey Brad, Romin 2003 just gave me an idea.
How about a baby-sitter service in that 35 dollar ticket.
I don't have kids yet but I might pay to keep out other peoples noise-makers.