Weekend Box-Office: 'Twilight: Breaking Dawn' Takes #1 While Independents Score Big Numbers
COMMENTS
Descendants, Marilyn, Artist and Dangerous Method all impress
Well, I guess to expect The Muppets to compete with The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1 after Friday's results was folly as Jim Henson's creations were no match for the human vs. vampire story with Kermit and friends hardly making a dent over Saturday and Sunday. Let's look a little closer.
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 2 Weeks In A Row
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1
The fourth film in the Twilight franchise is now over $220 million domestically and $489 million worldwide. It's a success and I really have nothing more to say.
Weekend: $42.0 million (-69.6% drop)
Cummulative Total: $221.3 million
RottenTomatoes Score: 27%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 and his prediction of $46.05 million was $4.05m off for a percentage error of 9.64%.
Cummulative Total: $221.3 million
RottenTomatoes Score: 27%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 and his prediction of $46.05 million was $4.05m off for a percentage error of 9.64%.
2. The Muppets
I was being a knucklehead expecting The Muppets to take their $12.3 million Friday and turning it into $40 million. However, with an A CinemaScore, a 98% RottenTomatoes rating and $42 million in their first five days this one should show solid legs and hold on well next weekend. I'm curious, though, will holding on be a 28% dip or 35+%?
As for predictions, Laremy wanted it to go high as I did, but it just couldn't manage. John PT, however, was close with a $31.6 million prediction.
Weekend: $29.5 million / Cume: $42 million / RottenTomatoes: 98%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $44.07 million, which is $14.57m off for a 49.39% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $44.07 million, which is $14.57m off for a 49.39% error.
Only a 36.8% tumble isn't actually too bad for this film considering how bad it actually is and considering the fact it was opening against two other films aimed at children and it even managed to beat Arthur Christmas, the MUCH better film.
Weekend: $13.4 million (-36.8% drop) / Cume: $43.7 million / RottenTomatoes: 42%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $15.92 million, which is $2.52m off for a 18.81% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $15.92 million, which is $2.52m off for a 18.81% error.
Familiarity is obviously key as audiences would rather go see dreck like Happy Feet Two in its second miserable weekend than go see something fresh like Arthur Christmas. I'll never understand.
Laremy was high on this one as well were most of the readers with gripmonster's $15 million ended up being closest.
Weekend: $12.7 million / Cume: $17 million / RottenTomatoes: 92%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $16.88 million, which is $4.18m off for a 32.91% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $16.88 million, which is $4.18m off for a 32.91% error.
5. Hugo
Outside of the big boys there were still some success stories this weekend. Of course, Hugo's success depends on how you look at it. Carrying a budget I've seen pegged from $130-170+ million, this film is going to lose a lot of money unless it scores major numbers overseas. However, opening in only 1,277 it almost managed to beat Arthur Christmas which was in 3,376 theaters.
It's the one new release able to top Laremy's prediction though John Debono was on it with his $13.1 million prediction.
Weekend: $11.3 million / Cume: $15.3 million / RottenTomatoes: 97%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $7.66 million, which is $3.64m off for a 32.21% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $7.66 million, which is $3.64m off for a 32.21% error.
Only a 12% drop and it's now up to $57.4 million. It would make me laugh so hard if this was able to crack $100 million.
Weekend: $10.3 million (-12% drop) / Cume: $57.4 million / RottenTomatoes: 4%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $6.2 million, which is $4.1m off for a 39.81% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $6.2 million, which is $4.1m off for a 39.81% error.
7. Immortals
A solid movie and one I would recommend to people. My only suggestion is to enjoy it for what it is and don't go in looking for too much.
Weekend: $8.8 million (-28.5% drop) / Cume: $68.6 million / RottenTomatoes: 35%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $6.35 million, which is $2.45m off for a 27.84% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $6.35 million, which is $2.45m off for a 27.84% error.
Do you see Puss in Boots as one of the five animated feature film Oscar nominees?
Weekend: $7.4 million (-31.5% drop) / Cume: $135.3 million / RottenTomatoes: 82%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $7.6 million, which is $0.2m off for a 2.7% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $7.6 million, which is $0.2m off for a 2.7% error.
9. Tower Heist
I received my For Your Consideration screener of Tower Heist this weekend. I don't think I'll be watching that one, but what are the best Comedy and Musicals this year? What will the Golden Globes nominate beyond Bridesmaids? Probably The Muppets, but what else?
Weekend: $7.3 million (2.8% increase) / Cume: $65.3 million / RottenTomatoes: 69%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $4.18 million, which is $3.12m off for a 42.74% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $4.18 million, which is $3.12m off for a 42.74% error.
10. The Descendants
Boom! Look at that percentage increase from last weekend. From 29 theaters last weekend to 433 theaters this weekend, The Descendants scored $7.2 million and a $16,628 per theater average. Are we looking at the Best Picture front-runner?
Weekend: $7.2 million (505% increase) / Cume: $10.7 million / RottenTomatoes: 91%
Laremy's rank: Not Ranked
Laremy's rank: Not Ranked
The success stories don't end there as My Week With Marilyn opened in 244 theaters and brought in $1.77 million ($7,266 pta), The Artist opened in four theaters and took home $210,000 ($52,500 pta) and A Dangerous Method also opened in four theaters and brought in $182,000 ($45,500).
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I saw The Descendants on Friday night and it was sold out. Everyone really seemed to love it, myself included. I definitely consider it the BP Frontrunner at this point.
I hope that Muppets take next weekend which is very likely. Here are my predictions for number 1 movies:
DECEMBER 2-MUPPETS
DECEMBER 9-NEW YEAR'S EVE
DECEMBER 16-SHERLOCK HOLMES: A GAME OF SHADOWS
DECEMBER 23-MISSION IMPOSSIBLE-GHOST PROTOCOL
Won't Ghost protocal burn off demand with those previews?
I hope. I want Dragon tattoo or Tintin on top but….
Don't you yanks get Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy on December 9th? You'd think it's award season buzz would make TTSS a high profile release.
Yes! Yes! Yes! OMG, Breaking Dawn is No. 1 two weeks in a row! I can't wait for Part 2! It'll be even bigger! Woooo!
Even my hardcore Twilight-loving girlfriend said this one sucked.
Concerning your comment of Happy Feet 2 (dreck)) versus Arthur Christmas. Children will definitely be more inclined to push their parents to see a follow-up to a movie they have seen several times versus new material. And parents will gravitate towards a known product versus unknown. Word of mouth between parents *should* help for future weeks. However for opening weekend – they will play safe … IMHO
Obviously, nearly everything will drop 40%+ next week because of the post-Thanksgiving slump that always occurs. The Descendants will probably go wide next week ($10 million seems reasonable) and Breaking Dawn will drop off a cliff.
Family films usually drop at least 50% also. That seems to likely happen for Puss In Boots, Jack and Jill, and Happy Feet 2 as they were released before Thanksgiving.
I'm surprised that The Muppets didn't at least hit $35 million for the three-day. Oh well, it should still play solidly and should have little trouble winning next weekend.
I think The Artist is easily the Best Picture frontrunner right now, but the National Board of Review awards are due out in a week or so, and then things will really get going. As far as the comedy / musical category at the Globes, I'd expect The Descendents to end up there even though it's not a comedy. I saw it Friday (in a 400ish seat auditorium that was nearly sold out) and I think it's one of the best films of the year, along with Drive, Midnight in Paris, and maybe The Help. I thought Hugo and The Muppets were both good, but not spectacular. The Muppets played things really safe (though you couldn't really expect anything else), while Hugo got a bit preachy near the end I thought, though the acting was terrific and it was seriously impressive visually.
As far as Puss in Boots…I think it's pretty much a lock for an animated feature nomination, and it could possibly win.
I should add that those are seriously impressive starts for The Artist and A Dangerous Method. I'm not sure how wide they'll be able to go, but the Weinsteins seem intent on giving it a shot with The Artist.
On "The Muppets" and its future holds:
Any family film, in the weekend after Thanksgiving, is exceedingly lucky to have a drop below 50%. This is because they get the most business on Black Friday, and thus the biggest drops in comparison on the following Friday. Look at past smash hits amongst the family demographic:
"The Blind Side" -50.0%
"Tangled" -55.7%
"Bolt" -63.1%
The only family films that hold better than -50% are normally Christmas-themed ones like "How the Grinch Stole Christmas" or, more recently, "Four Christmases," which experienced drops in the -40s.
So "Arthur Christmas" may see a drop in the -40s, but "The Muppets" will be very lucky to experience the same. HOWEVER, after next weekend, I expect it to hold really well. And, maybe with its low start, it has a chance at a drop in the very low -50s.
It's a shame that both The Muppets and Arthur Christmas lost their prospective 1st and 3rd place spots to terrible films. At least 60% of the top 10 were FRESH though. Only 4 bad movies on there!
May i just ask as to what the main picture means? :)
It's a movie still from The Descendants with Kermit and Jacob Photoshopped in.
Oh i see xD Nice!
No new releases during the Post Thanksgiving release date graveyard is probably the model for the future. Releasing a wide release practically guarantees you won't make more than around $40 million in total for your film. Could be a gold mine weekend for future indie releases that can just coast through an uncompetitive weekend.
I would imagine Best Comedy/Musical would be:
The Artist
Midnight In Paris
The Muppets
Bridesmaids
50/50
Depends if The Inbetweeners Movie is elegible or not.
With regard to HAPPY FEET II and TWILIGHT: BD 1, this is the second time this year a studio has used a big animation sequel as counter-programming and had it back fire. (KUNG-FU PANDA 2 against HANGOVER II was the first one.)
This type of distribution method is wrong and dangerous. Have the studios got a bunch of monkeys working in their distribution depts.?
I'm just happy to see the Twilight Saga waning. BD1 isn't performing as well as New Moon and neither did Eclipse. I really want Part 2 to bomb. Would serve Summit right, and short change that huge loan payment they have coming up. They purposely went cheap on these movies, drug the whole thing out for another year, and I'd love for it to bite them in the ass.
Skyfall might just slay Breaking Dawn next year. (And a good thing too)
Breaking Dawn is 'waning' by about 5% off where New Moon was at the same point.
Summit ain't shaking in their boots.
And teenage girls won't care about Skyfall next year (heck, I barely do and I loathe Twilight), so it's no threat on that score.
Well shit, then. I thought it was off by more than that.
At least next year is the end of it. And I am actually a fan of the books.
Maybe not girls. But teenage boys might.
Plus if Blond Bond goes shirtless a couple of times, some females might flock to Skyfall for that reason.
Jesus, Happy Feet Two was not dreck and it was not a bad movie. I normally wouldn't leap to defend it but there is way too much bashing of it here. It was just as good, if not better, than Arthur Christmas. It tanked for the critics because it was not your typical light-weight or simple animated movie and the expectations were too high given the first one won an Oscar and it lost the novelty. Many critics were just off-base in its trashing by claiming it was the same movie when it had a different plotline as well as claiming it too many things going on when it all inter-connected & tied together at the end. Certain people just didn't embrace the original movie or characters which is why they hate it. It was more ambitious in scope and far more complex than most animated movies. It had great music, engaging characters, and brilliant animation. I was shocked that Arthur Christmas had such high reviews when it almost seems they were biased against Happy Feet Two when they were both of the same quality to me.
In fact, I thought Arthur Christmas and Happy Feet Two had the same issues. They made a relatively simple plot premise a dozen times more complicated and it could be tedious because it would run in circles by adding too many obstacles. The dialogue could sometimes be mediocre for Happy Feet Two and also Arthur Christmas. Both movies could have used much sharper scripts and a more stream-lined pace or plot. The people who read horrible reviews of Happy Feet Two will be pleased when they watch it because it is not a bad movie at all. The people who read the raves for Arthur Christmas will be disappointed because it is not as wonderful as the press claims. They were both relatively equal for me in quality except Arthur Christmas has novelty going for me. I would consider both to be B-grade movies when compared to Disney/Pixar.
Happy Feet Two only bombed badly in its opening because it was competing against Twilight which was suicide. If it had opened on a different weekend, it would have opened much higher to $40 mil. The low dropoff proves that. We saw the same trend where Winnie the Pooh crashed in its opening because it was up against Harry Potter. Kung Fu Panda 2 had a disappointing opening which was way below high expectations because it was competing with The Hangover 2.
I personally would reccomend Happy Feet Two, Arthur Christmas, and especially Hugo. Happy Feet Two was not a terrible movie and I do not understand why some people are just frothing at the mouth when it comes to it. Happy Feet Two had way more heart and soul than Arthur Christmas. I actually felt the bond between the characters much more and
the penguins were adorable/irresistable. Happy Feet Two was a lot better than Immortals which I found almost unwatchable.
I am just upset that The Muppets didn't have a bigger debut but it is a great accomplishment for the entire franchise and will hold over well. I am angry Twilight held over so well because that is dreck! Also, Jack & Jill, Tower Heist, Immortals, and other mediocre movies had good holdovers while the new releases had disappointing debuts.
I hope my opinions do not upset anybody but I just had to comment on it because I think people should give certain movies that are getting a really bad name,another chance. I liked Arthur Christmas but was really disappointed because it got such glowing reviews. I enjoyed Happy Feet Two and the reviews were almost unreasonably bad which lowered my expectations and I ended up being more impressed by the movie. Personally, I thought Arthur Christmas, Happy Feet Two, and Puss & Boots were in the same league. Gnomeo & Juliet was slightly below that but I still enjoyed it. Mars without Moms, Cars 2, and Rango were the true disappointments for me. Just my opinions but I thought people should read it.
I felt the critics were spot-on with Hugo because it truly is an amazing masterpiece and will be considered a modern classic. The effects were spectacular, a truly magical storyline,tied in to the book nicely, and had impressive acting. I was blown away. I cried and it had more sentiment that I expected from a Scorsese film. I think it will hold over well because it has Oscar buzz. However, the main drawback is that younger children may not understand or like it because the emotional elements are more subversive and it is not as humorous as other family movies.
The distributors for all animated movies need to re-evaluate its release date strategy because that is why they all underperformed this year. Hugo had a much lower theater count than Arthur Christmas yet its difference was not that huge in the box office.
As for the Thanksgiving slump, I think the fact that there are no new major releases scheduled for the upcoming weekend
will balance that out with the older releases having a chance to hold over well. That may counter the slump because these movies are not really competing with anything significant. Twilight movies usually taper off by the third weekend anyway. I think the drop-offs will be small.
1. The Muppets ($20 mil range)
2. Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn ($15-20)
3. Happy Feet Two ( $9-12 range)
4. Arthur Christmas( $8-12 range)
5. Hugo( $8-12 range)
6. The Descendants ( If it releases wide, next weekend).
Then Immortals, Jack and Jill, Tower Heist, J.Edgar and other adult movies except for The Descendants will have big drops. The slump is more likely to affect adult movies. Jack and Jill is not adult but it falls into real dreck that is getting a bad worth of mouth among kids and adults.
I ain't so sure about Muppets being #1. If Hugo expands big-time, it's Hugo's to lose.
I am the most curious about how The Adventures of Tintin will perform because it is competing against Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocal, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and We Bought a Zoo. The Darkest Hour and War Horse are opening only on Sunday and it will also be competing with Chipwrecked and Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows in its second weekend. Ouch. However, Tintin is already a huge hit overseas and it has the benefit of the Christmas Rush. It could be the biggest animated movie this year or tank.
I think it is the awards/Oscar frontrunner. As long as the weather is not bad on Christmas Weekend, it should be fine.
I'm also very curious about the Adventures of Tin Tin. And thanks to reading this blog and the comments, I will be going to see Hugo. I wasn't initially planning on it, but people are speaking highly of it.