Weekend Box-Office: 'Sherlock' Wins a Weekend in Which 'Mission: Impossible 4' is the Bigger Story

Still not a great weekend at the box-office, but it does have one of the top 15 December openings ever and a few impressive limited releases. So let's take a look.
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 2 Weeks In A Row

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
Laremy predicted $70.64 million. I think I can safely say that was wrong, as the one major thing he didn't take into account was the fact Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows opened approximately one week earlier than its predecessor, which opened on Christmas Day two years ago. Therefore, the verdict is still out on this one as it could have a nice pair of legs over the next three weeks and with an opening this low and a reported A- CinemaScore I wouldn't be surprised if the next three weekends are pretty good for Sherlock, though there is going to be some stiff competition ahead.

As far as user predictions go, Chris Etrata continues an impressive streak of solid number crunching and this week predicted Sherlock 2 at $36 million for the closest pick on the board, just edging out a few mid-$40 million predictions.

How well do you see this one carrying over? 25% dip? 35%? After all, it was the fifteenth highest December opening ever, not like that actually means very much.

Weekend: $40 million
RottenTomatoes Score: 62%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 and his prediction of $70.64 million was $30.64m off for a percentage error of 76.6%.
While Laremy was pretty far off with his Sherlock prediction, I think this is the more surprising result as Alvin and the Chipmunks - Chipwrecked! opened in 3,723 (23 more than the Squeakquel) and brought in $25 million less. The other thing to consider, Chipwrecked was in 3D, the Squeakquel wasn't.
Weekend: $23.5 million
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $40.7 million, which is $17.2m off for a 73.19% error.
Aided by the prologue for The Dark Knight Rises in 42 of its 425 IMAX theaters Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol is certainly the most impressive opener of the weekend with a $30,588 per theater average and people seem to be really enjoying it as I believe seeing a film in 70mm IMAX bests any 3D presentation I've ever seen.

What will be interesting is to see just how high this film ends up going as it opens wide on December 21. It received the highest RottenTomatoes rating of all four films in the franchise (the first one only received a 61% rating) and may signal audiences aren't ready for Ethan Hunt to hang up his shoes just yet.

Weekend: $13 million / RottenTomatoes: 95%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $10 million, which is $3m off for a 23.08% error.
I simply cannot believe how poorly this film performed. Will it be able to even top Valentine's Day's $56.2 million opening before it's out of theaters and announced for DVD and Blu-ray?
Weekend: $7.4 million (-43.1% drop) / Cume: $24.8 million / RottenTomatoes: 7%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $6.2 million, which is $1.2m off for a 16.22% error.
This film is actually funny, but based on the box-office receipts not many people have given it a chance to find out and from the CinemaScore, which I believe was a C+, and the RottenTomatoes score not many people agree with me. Oh well.
Weekend: $4.4 million (-55.1% drop) / Cume: $9.8 million / RottenTomatoes: 25%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $5.31 million, which is $0.91m off for a 20.68% error.
This movie was really funny as well.
Weekend: $4.2 million (-46.2% drop) / Cume: $266.4 million / RottenTomatoes: 26%
Laremy's rank: Not Ranked
Young Adult expanded into a total of 986 theaters and say its per theater average come in at $3,702, though I have a feeling Paramount wishes it would have done better. I actually watched this film again this weekend as well and can tell you right now, it's a film best seen in the theater with a responsive audience for your first time seeing it. Don't wait to see this film on DVD and Blu-ray, it just won't have the same effect at home.
Weekend: $3.65 million / Cume: $4 million / RottenTomatoes: 81%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $6 million, which is $2.35m off for a 64.38% error.
8. Hugo
Up to $39 million and now looking at a likely Best Picture nomination thanks to a strong critical response, some critical award recognition and decent box-office considering expectations. Nice work Marty, maybe keep the budget down a bit next time though.
Weekend: $3.62 million (-39.7% drop) / Cume: $39 million / RottenTomatoes: 93%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $5.95 million, which is $2.33m off for a 64.36% error.
I wish this film was doing better because I think we need more animated Christmas films. How many feature-length animated Christmas films that were good can you actually name?
Weekend: $3.6 million (-44.6% drop) / Cume: $38.5 million / RottenTomatoes: 92%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $4.68 million, which is $1.08m off for a 30% error.
Did you go see The Muppets? Did you like it? Do you want to see more Muppet movies? Made on a $45 million budget, The Muppets aren't exactly lighting the box-office on fire and it may take a serious Christmas miracle to see another Muppet feature film any time soon.
Weekend: $3.4 million (-50.7% drop) / Cume: $70.9 million / RottenTomatoes: 97%
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $4.089 million, which is $0.689m off for a 20.26% error.

There are still a few films to discuss as we'll first look at Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, which pulled in $452,000 from 16 theaters for a $28,250 per theater average and The Artist managed $287,000 from 17 theaters for a $16,882 per theater average.

The Weinsteins have The Artist on a slightly diminished roll-out when compared to The King's Speech last year. Both films slowly hit theaters in December, but by Christmas The King's Speech was in 700 theaters while The Artist expands to 170 next weekend.

Finally, Roman Polanski's Carnage opened in five theaters this weekend and brought in $85,696 for a $17,139 per theater average.

In case you weren't aware things begin really picking up this week starting with 7PM screenings of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo on Tuesday, followed by The Adventures of Tintin and the full roll-out of Mission: Impossible on Wednesday then We Bought a Zoo opens on Friday, followed by wide releases of The Darkest Hour and War Horse on Christmas Day.

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  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Anthony-Caban/100001822623450 Anthony Caban

    Next Weekend
    1.the adventures of tintin $179.78 million
    2.mission impossible ghost protocol $98.7 million
    3.sherlock holmes a game of shadows $96.4 million
    4.the girl with the dragon tattoo $85.5 million
    5.the darkest hour $83.2 million
    6.we bought a zoo $74.3 million
    7.war horse $69.4 million
    8.the twilight saga:breaking dawn part 1 $8.8 million
    9.young adult $2.1 million
    10.arthur christmas $1.4 million

    • Colin

      Do you always manage to hit the crack pipe before you get online?

      • http://www.facebook.com/people/Anthony-Caban/100001822623450 Anthony Caban

        Do you shut up before you get online.why cant you just leave me alone and stop bullying me

      • anthony caban

        shut up

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Alex-Leonardis/1092967130 Alex Leonardis

      You're not serious are you?

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Anthony-Caban/100001822623450 Anthony Caban

    im happy that sherlock holmes 2 won the weekend at box office.sherlock holmes 2 saves christmas.

  • Jimmy B

    I don't think Chipwrecked was in 3D. And Mission Impossible will dominate next weekend.

  • Casper

    Mission Impossible 4 will be number 1 next weekend based on great reviews, most theaters. I'm curious if The Girls With Dragon Tattoo could top MI4 for New Year's weekend.

  • Winchester

    The cinemascore for Sherlock at least bodes potentially well for it's future holds but who can really say right now. December is the long play month.

    I'd think passing $200 million is now a question mark though and it won't happen at all for Alvin.

    'Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol' seems now to be poised to have the most potentially surprising run at the box office - especially since it blinked originally with Sherlock 2 a few months back. Of course it depends to what degree TDKR boosted it, but if it was only on ten percent of the screen count plus the good reviews it's obvious that the film itself is working to some degree then this has the potential to one of the bigger hits of the season. The full rollout will tell though, I suppose.

    'Girl' seems hard to predict. The Fincher fanboys will be out for the debut but I'm still not sure how much more widely appealing the film is because of the content.

    'TinTin' is a bit of a tough call as well. I personally really enjoyed it, thought it was a good family targeted film and wished I could have seen it a second time in theatres but that didn't work out. If Alvin tanks then it could position itself as the only other real kids film out there at the moment. I'd still expect a relatively soft open as TinTin isn't really a character widely known in the US, but potential word of mouth could then push it.

    However, I read on Deadline that supposedly the Thanksgiving sneaks of 'We Bought A Zoo' went very well, and that should play well to families and young kids too. It may be a dark horse for the season as well. But then I never saw that reported anywhere else.

    'War Horse' seems to have Christmas Day virtually to itself since 'Extremely' only opens on 6 screens, but after that I don't know who might go to see it over and over. Maybe the older crowd?

  • MKing

    Am I The only one who notices that M:I:4 might bomb? It went limited release this week. If it had gone wide this week and limited the previous week, i think it would've scored king of the box-office 2 weeks in a row. I think people would much rather see this more than New Year's Eve and Sherlock. With it going wide next week, it has to go up against Tin Tin Which has the kid factor involved and Sherlock.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      There's a definite risk there, that's for sure, but this start is very promising considering it's an action film and not your traditional art house film that opens in limited release. On top of that, people seem to be really liking it. It's the best reviewed of the franchise.

      • MKing

        Yeah I looked at the reviews for it on RT and I definitely want it to do good. Either way, it will top 100 million for sure. Thanks for the reply.

      • Rocketman

        I saw MI4 on the weekend and I really enjoyed it. I still preferred MI3 as it gave Ethan a little more of a 'non spy' life and I thought JJ does a good job in ratcheting up the tension, especially in the interrogation scenes, but I still had a blast with this one - the scenes on the skyscraper are epic fun! The action scenes are the best of the year. Brad Bird needs to be handed a Bond or Bourne film!

        • MKing

          Yeah, I'm not close to any IMAX theaters so I have to wait till Monday. I'm still so excited.

  • John PT

    Chipwrecked wasn't in 3D.

    And Carnage tanked, IMO.

  • Ben

    2 brilliant animated xmas films are The Snowman and The Nightmare Before Christmas.

  • Ian

    I didn't get any predictions in on Thursday, but I was thinking around $60 million for Sherlock and $40-45 for Alvin. So yeah, definitely a pair of underperformers, though I can't say it bothers me as I didn't like the first Sherlock and have no interest in this one. And anytime a movie as dreadful as Alvin performs badly, I'm happy.

    That's a seriously impressive start for M:I-4 though. I'm curious as to how well it will do when it goes wide. Next weekend will be a nightmare to predict with three Wednesday releases, one on Friday, and two on Sunday. And with Christmas falling on a Sunday, grosses will be down compared to normal as theatres won't be that busy on Friday and especially Saturday. New Year's weekend should see across-the-board increases though. I really don't know what to expect out of Tintin, but M:I-4 could hit $50 million, though it'll probably do less and then maybe hit $50 over New Year's. Dragon Tattoo will be lucky to hit $25 million.

    I saw Young Adult Friday night and thought it was quite good. The audience was decent, 40 people or so (and I was one of probably five guys), but they didn't laugh all that much. Maybe I'd have enjoyed it even better with a more active audience.

  • Vince (Not Vance)

    Yeah, Alvin wasn't in 3D, but when it was first announced, it was supposed to be. Not sure what happened between then and now.

    Breaking Dawn was a pretty funny movie. Definitely funnier than Young Adult, that's for sure.

    I hadn't realized how packed the Christmas movie season is this year. Truly is something for everyone, but I think Dragon Tattoo, MI 4, & Sherlock are sure things.

    Honestly won't be surprised if We Bought a Zoo breaks out though. Reminds me of when Marley & Me exceeded expectations against Benjamin Button & Bedtime Stories. Zoo seems like the feel-good family movie of the year, moreso than something like War Horse.

  • Rocketman

    I'm curious about your comments for Young Adult. I know you gave it a good review, but if I have to see it in a cinema with an appreciative audience, is it really that good?

    • Jenni

      I thought it was one of the best films of the year. It's certainly polarizing but you have to give MAJOR kudos to everyone involved (especially Paramount for picking up this film) because it takes major balls to get a film like this made. I think Young Adult is truly the "feel-bad" film of the year... but in a good way if that makes sense. It really makes you think and in many ways put a mirror up to yourself. Hollywood hates that stuff! And most people go to the movies to escape, so I can see why it's struggling. But with stellar reviews + pretty small budget, I can see this film ending its BO run on a high note... not a blockbuster by any means, but it will be fine. I think.

  • Jenni

    Young Adult will easily make its budget back. It was made for only 12 million, so within the next few weeks it should be fine. What do you think Brad? I like this movie so much, and I want to see it do well. Moreover, I want Theron and Oswalt nominated! Sadly, I can see the former happening more than the latter but I would be happy with either way!!

  • chriscarmichael

    Tintin and the Darkest Hour are both going to bomb big time

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Anthony-Caban/100001822623450 Anthony Caban

      tintin wont bomb because tintin is a big film.let's see how tintin and mission impossible IV and girl with the dragon tattoo performs.