Weekend Box-Office: 'Rio' is the Current 2011 Opening Weekend Champ While 'Scream 4' Sags in Second
There are, however, some strong holdovers
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| Laremy may have been way off on Scream 4 for the #1 prediction, but as far as the numbers go he did pretty well with Rio, which people are already gushing over as it now has the largest opening of any film in 2011. On top of the $40 million it took in domestically, it also took in another $93 million worldwide giving it a massive global cume of $168 million after ten days in release. As far as user predictions go, I'd have to say it's going to be tough for anyone to do better than Antonio A, whose $40 million was right on the money. Result: $40 million Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 and his prediction of $36.1 million was $3.9m off for a percentage error of 9.75%. | |
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As for user predictions, well, you all followed Laremy's lead and some of you went even higher so no kudos this week as Scream 4 duped us all. Question now is, will it be able to holdover a little better after such a minimal opening? On a budget of $40 million it should be fine, but I'm not willing to bet on a Scream 5 at the moment.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 with $44.55 million, which is $25.35m off for a 132.03% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $13.42 million, which is $2.32m off for a 20.9% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $6.89 million, which is $0.51m off for a 6.89% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $9.51 million, which is $2.21m off for a 30.27% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $7.58 million, which is $0.68m off for a 9.86% error.
I will remind you again this film was made for only $1.5 million and has now managed over $35 million domestically with international dollars yet to be accounted for. Between this and Soul Surfer, FilmDistrict is enjoying the success of their first two releases.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $7.5 million, which is $0.7m off for a 10.29% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $5.62 million, which is $0.68m off for a 10.79% error.
Only a few readers predicted a return for The Conspirator so I guess that means John PT's $2.2 million prediction takes the cake.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $2.82 million, which is $1.08m off for a 27.69% error.
Laremy's rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $5.15 million, which is $1.35m off for a 35.53% error.
Outside of the top ten a couple new releases are worth talking about. Atlas Shrugged: Part I took in a solid $1.6 million from 300 theaters and IFC's The Princess of Montpensier earned $23,400 from three theaters, the latter of which has received rather good reviews, which tells me people must be seeing a different film than I saw at Cannes last year. Because that movie was a redundant bore.
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next weekend. I'll still ask, can Rio hold off against Madea? I think no. Where will Water for Elephants fall? And will Hop get a surge from Easter? So many questions…
Rio could hold off Madea. In this economy, people might not be flocking to Madea as much as some think they will.
Based on Big Momma's: Like Father Like Son's B.O performance, Madea is f@cked!
It will be like when How to Train your Dragon held off The Back-Up Plan.
Stiggy, I'm sorry, but honestly, you once again aren't making a bit of sense.
Probably not. Rio should finish in the 25-30 million range, while Madea has a good chance to land $10 million above that. The popularity of Madea films in particular has only been growing (from $22m to $30m to $41m) and who knows how high Big Happy Family could soar.
Madea will bring in most of the TP fans for its first weekend. But I expect it to plunge sharply in its next weekend.
Regardless how popular TP's films are, they are incredibly front-loaded.
Wow, Scream 4 really underperformed. Maybe is one of those cases where the internet buzz is big, but the actual anticipation isn't. I was trying to convince some friends to watch it yesterday and nobody wanted to, I was surprised!
I'm very upset that "Scream 4" opened so low, but I'm not really surprised looking back at how people reacted to it this week. So many people I talked to this week were saying "I don't get it is it a horror film or a comedy?" I don't see why that turns so many people off.
People will run to see Madea just like they always do. Next Friday being good Friday too. Madea should be number 1 next weekend with 35-40 million.
Poor Scream 4. Deserved to do better!
Unbeliveable that Scream 3 did 35 million opening 11 years ago, which was a blockbuster number, and Scream 4 settled for such a mediocre comeback.
Come on, people went back for Star Wars and Indiana Jones after a decade of hiatus.
What happened to the Scream fans??
Scream fans became uninterested adults, while old Star Wars and Indy films never stopped being a first-class family entertainment.
Maybe. There were a lot of adults at my session, but maybe most of previous fans got bored of horror movies.
Well, it must suck to be an 'uninterested adult' anyway. Losing the interest is, well, a bad thing.
Glad I didn't missed it. 11 years later, I still had fun.
I don't have much to add to what I said yesterday. Next weekend Madea *should* win, but Easter is a pretty family heavy weekend so I could see Rio pulling down another $30 million perhaps (and Hop might even increase due to the holiday). Of course TP is reliable and Madea is his biggest cash cow. I think the last Madea hit over $40 million and I'd expect similar results with this one. Not sure on Water for Elephants yet.
I never thought Scream would do anything above 25 mil. Water for elephants is the dark horse next week. Madea movies, which causes me to puke just looking at the posters, may rule the roost with around 25 mil.
Good for Rio. Awful for Scream 4. As for next week. The first Madea movie made 25. The 2nd one made 30 million opening weekend. The 3rd made 41 opening weekend so I am thinking with next Friday being good Friday this one should make between 35-45 next weekend.
I am surprised by Atlas Shrugged's numbers. It got 10% on Rotten Tomatoes and still earned $1.6M. Imagine how well it could've done if it actually got good reviews!
I CANNOT wait for Water for Elephants next weekend. The book was absolutely fantastic and it can be made into a fantastic film as well. Will you be reviewing it, Brad?
I have to day I'm personally finding Scream 4's debut very, very unfortunate. I really don't think it deserved to open as lowly as that.
However, not a lot can be done now. Given the competition over the next few weeks I don't expect it will hang around long either, even with a good cinemascore. At least it wasn't an open ended sequel baiting conclusion to it though, since I can't see any more Screams coming along any time soon.
As for week I couldn't even use the Hubble telescope to locate my interest in any of the big releases, so I have no call to make on who will win out.
Agree with no no new releases next week, but I did hit a Blockbuster fire-sale and bought some movies I want to see again, "Control", "Slipstream" and "In The Loop" so that will keep be busy for a week or two.
Control is a fantastic film. This shocking considering that I was born in 1982, but I had never heard of Ian Curtis or Joy Division until I happened upon a review of this film over at RogerEbert.com
This is easily in my Top-25 films of 2000-2010 and likewise, Joy Division (and subsequently, New Order) is now one of my favorite bands. Great performances, great music and a tragic story make this a phenomenal film. Enjoy
Thems the facts
Scream 4's result is shocking. Where the hell was the core audience this weekend??? I was there…damn you traitors!!!!!
Opening weekend of the NBA and NHL playoffs couldn't have helped Scream 4 as far as the male demographic
I think Scream 4 will have legs
And YH drops like rapidly off the charts. Good riddance. Universal is being saved by it's animation division. Maybe they should dump all live action so the can make a profit! The junk they have been putting out borders on suicidal.
FilmDistrict is doing much better than CBS Films
I don't see how a B- cinemascore is a good thing. Sucker Punch had the same score and the same $19 mil opening weekend and it won't hit $40 mil, which is Scream 4's budget. I can't see this making too much money, if any at all.
Yeah, a B- is actually a pretty bad Cinemascore. Cinemascore's ratings are super inflated because the moviegoing audience polled isn't strict. Basically, it works like this.
A+ to A-= Exceeded expectations, will definitely watch again or recommend to others.
B+ to B= Met expectations
B- to C+= Average movie at best
C to D- = This movie's garbage.
F= This movie has less worth than garbage.
I think for a horror film it is actually a pretty good CinemaScore. All a matter of perception I guess.
I don't get how CinemaScore is a useful thing at all. Scream 4 got a B- but Let Me In got a C+? JOKE.
I got exactly what I expected from Scream 4. It was just like all the other films in the saga: It's all connected to Sydney, there's plenty of creepy phone calls from Ghostface, everyone constantly chatters about horror films and the rules that govern them (be they cheesy or not)…then of course proceed to violate the rules which would ensure their survival. And you know what? It was a lot of good ol' fashioned 90s slasher fun.
My friend and I (who were both in our early teens when the first Scream debuted in 1996 – yes, we both snuck in) got to the screening about 30 minutes early – it was a Scream film after all. Boy were we shocked to discover (on a Friday night no-less) a screening room that was only half full. By films start, it was only 3/4 full. I knew, right then and there that this wasn't going to be a successful film.
Needless to say, until some studio chief decides to reinvent the franchise a decade from now, this is the end of the "Wes Craven-directed" Scream films. Shame, I would have enjoyed a fifth film. They are what they are: B-movie fun.
Them the facts
Brad, will you be uploading a Paul review soon? I'd like to see your opinion.