Box Office Predictions

Box Office Predictions: 'The Croods' and 'OIympus Has Fallen' Target Top of the Box Office

The first big animation of 2013 hits theaters!

Weekend Box-Office Predictions

The CroodsThe Croods will be the runaway winner this weekend, the only real drama is how high will it soar? This could be a case where the tracking is actually a bit low, there's likely some family dollars out there that don't know their spring break plans just yet. The budget looks to be an unconfirmed $145 million, which is passable, but How to Train Your Dragon only managed a 1.3x multiplier overseas, and if The Croods can't put up more than that, this will need home video and television residuals to thrive. Still, I feel great about a $50 million prediction, if anything I could see going higher, it's a quality movie that will draw positive word-of-mouth and a pleasant CinemaScore.

Olympus Has Fallen looks to be another breakout candidate, getting over 3,000 theaters and able to take on Oz the Great and Powerful during its third weekend. One potential sticking point is that R rating, will young adults flock to this? And what do you make of the international prospects? It's the biggest mystery of the weekend, and my $27 million prediction could very easily be off by seven million dollars in either direction.

The two smaller films of the weekend seem to be headed in opposite directions. First up, Admission is doomed, only drawing 2,100 theaters and offering a marketing promotion that looks to be trading entirely on audiences goodwill toward Paul Rudd and Tina Fey. Still, the tracking is abysmal, and there's little reason to think $7 million isn't the number.

Gaining steam is Spring Breakers. It's only getting 1,000 theaters, but the anecdotal buzz is there, as is the risque poster situation. This will likely be the young male call of the weekend, and it wouldn't surprise me to see it hit double digits and grab a top five finish.

How say you? A nice cornucopia of new releases to consider, anyone who can get dialed in on all four will earn my unending respect.

Current Streak: Six weekends in a row.
Chances of Streak Being Broken: Zero percent.
Reason: The tracking is there, children are on spring break, and this will be a slam-dunk win.

Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
The Croods: $45 million
Olympus Has Fallen: $22 million
Admission: $7 million
Spring Breakers: $6 million

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We'll have the actual counts in Sunday's wrap-up article.

Laremy's Box-Office Predictions for March 22 - March 24, 2013

  1. The Croods was #1 at the box-office
  2. Olympus Has Fallen () - $27 million
    Playing in 3,000 theaters ($9,000 avg.) / $130 million budget / 47%
  3. Oz the Great and Powerful () - $23.9 million
    Playing in 3,912 theaters ($6,109 avg.) / $215 million budget / 60%
  4. The Call () - $9.6 million
    Playing in 2,507 theaters ($3,829 avg.) / $13 million budget / 41%
  5. The Call () - $9.6 million
    Playing in 2,507 theaters ($3,829 avg.) / $13 million budget / 41%
  6. Admission () - $7.4 million
    Playing in 2,100 theaters ($3,524 avg.) / 43%
  7. Spring Breakers () - $6 million
    Playing in 1,000 theaters ($6,000 avg.) / 65%
  8. The Incredible Burt Wonderstone () - $5.4 million
    Playing in 3,160 theaters ($1,709 avg.) / $30 million budget / 37%
  9. Jack the Giant Slayer () - $3.2 million
    Playing in 2,800 theaters ($1,143 avg.) / $195 million budget / 52%
  10. Identity Thief () - $2.5 million
    Playing in 2,400 theaters ($1,042 avg.) / $35 million budget / 20%
Click here to browse our box-office charts and compare Laremy's predictions
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  • Xarnis

    1. The Croods - $47.4 million
    2. Olympus Has Fallen - $29.2 million
    3. Oz: the Great and Powerful - $25.5 million
    4. The Call - 8.5 million
    5. Spring Breakers - $7.1 million
    6. Admission - $5.4 million
    7. The Incredible Burt Wonderstone - $4.7 million
    8. Identity Thief - $3.6 million
    9. Jack the Giant Slayer - $3.3 million
    10. Snitch - $2.1 million

  • Corbin

    1. The Croods- $32.4 million
    2. Oz: the Great and Powerful-$24.8 million
    3. Olympus Has Fallen- $19.6 million
    4. The Call- $11.5 million
    5. Admission- $9.4 million

  • Chris Etrata

    The Croods: 41.6 million
    Olympus: 15.3 million
    Spring Breakers: 12.3 million
    Admission: 4.5 million

  • Chris Etrata

    By the way, I saw The Croods in a preview screening, and compared to the praise form critics, I feel it's overrated. It's okay but underdeveloped plot and characters drag this down for me. It has its moments in comedy and drama but these are inconsistent.

    • Susan

      Chris, not to be a stickler, but critics are giving it pretty average scores. It's sitting at 59 on Metacritic and Brad's B- is by no means a rave.

      • Chris Etrata

        I know the reviews aren't acclaiming but more of these critics gave it positive reviews than negative reviews according to rotten tomatoes. Of course, its still early and the score can change but the tone of these reviews are more positive than my tone right now.

        • Susan

          Fair enough. I stopped going to RT some time ago because I think their system is too flawed.

          • Chris Etrata

            Besides, a film could have 100% rating and you can still find it just okay. Did you see The Croods?

    • GregDinskisk

      I saw it about a month ago (writing a review now) and I'd say that yeah, it's pretty inconsistent, but still pretty good. A very watchable film. Better than most anything animated released last year (I didn't see that many animated ones, but I only really liked Wreck-it Ralph).

      • Chris Etrata

        Don't get me wrong. Its definitely watachable. It's just that for me, it's okay but disappointing. What I meant by inconsistent is that the film has scenes of comedy which are hit and miss for me, and dramatic scenes which I found to be a bit rushed. These tonal shifts feel a bit jarring for me. If it had gone more as a comedy or more as a drama, these scenes would be more consistent and the film would be better. It's a shame because Chris Sanders made one of Dreamworks's best movies, How To Train Your Dragon. I also loved Lilo and Stitch. This just doesn't deliver the same impact for me.

  • Jack

    1. The Croods- $35 million
    2. Oz- $21 million
    3. Olympus Has Fallen- $18 million
    4. The Call- $8 million
    5. Spring Breakers- $5.5 million
    6. Admission- $4.5 million
    7. Burt Wonderstone- $4 million
    8. Jack the Giant Slayer- $3 million
    9. Identity Thief- $2 million
    10. Snitch- $1.5 million

  • gerberzy

    The Croods- 48.8 million
    Olympus- 26.3 million
    Admission- 6.4 million
    Spring Breakers- 5.9 million

  • João Costa

    The Croods - 37.7M
    Olympus Has Fallen - 16.4M
    Spring Breakers - 6.2M

  • Austin G.

    The Croods - $40.3 million
    Olympus Has Fallen - $28.8 million
    Admission - $7.4 million
    Spring Breakers - $5.9 million

  • Athar

    1. The Croods - $ 44.1 million
    2. Olympus Has Fallen - $ 31.5 million
    3. Oz The Great & Powerful - $ 20.2 million
    4. Spring Breakers - $ 10.3 million

  • Arthur Carlson

    1. The Croods - $42M
    2. Olympus Has Fallen - $25.5M
    3. Oz The Great and Powerful - $22.1M
    4. Spring Breakers - $11.5M
    5. Admission - $9.2M

  • John Debono

    1. The Croods: $53.6 million
    2. Oz The Great and Powerful: $23.7 million
    3. Olympus Has Fallen: $21.1 million
    4. The Call: $8.3 million
    5. Admission: $6.8 million
    6. Spring Breakers: $6.2 million

  • coltonhaynes22

    1. The Croods: $44.7 million
    2. Olympus Has Fallen : $24.1 million
    3. Oz: $21.8 million
    4. The Call: $9.2 million
    5. Spring Breakers: $7.7 million
    6. Admission: $6.3 million
    7. Burt Wonderstone: $5.5 million
    8. Jack the Giant Slayer: $4.3 million
    9. Snitch: $2.1 million
    10. Identity Thief: $2.0 million


    The Croods' budget is actually $135 million. Olympus Has Fallen's budget is actually $70 million. The Croods' is actually being released in a little over 4,000 theaters. Just letting you know.

  • Dennis

    Croods 34m
    Olympus 26m
    Spring 10.4m

  • Dennis

    Admission 5m

  • andyluvsfilms

    Croods 33.3m
    Olympus 23.5m
    Spring 9.8m

  • Mario Ludwinski

    Admission -- 4,41 mln (2100 theaters, $2100 per theather)
    Olympus Has Fallen -- 11,76 mln (2800 theaters, $4200 per theater)
    Spring Breakers (wide) -- 10 mln (2000 theaters, $5000 per theater)
    The Croods -- 19,2 mln (3200 theaters, $6000 per theater)

  • Mykael

    1. The Croods - $40.9 million
    2. Olympus Has Fallen - $23.4 million
    3. Oz: The Great and Powerful - $21.5 million
    4. The Call - $10.4 million
    5 Admission - $8.3 million
    6. Spring Breakers - $6.8million