Box Office Predictions

Box-Office Predictions: Will 'Die Hard' Win Over 'Beautiful Creatures' and 'Safe Haven' this Valentine's?

Will you dare bet against the actioner for a bit of romance?

Weekend Box-Office Predictions

Current Streak: Three weekends in a row.
Threat Level to Streak Being Broken: Seven percent.
Reason: The "event" film of the weekend is A Good Day to Die Hard, it should win easily over the classic "no one wins" battle of Safe Haven vs. Beautiful Creatures.

MTC Tracking
A Good Day to Die Hard: $39 million
Safe Haven: $20 million
Beautiful Creatures: $14 million
Escape from Planet Earth: $13 million

A Good Day to Die HardA Good Day to Die Hard looks to be the clear demographic winner, even though it's Valentine's Day Weekend. There are four new contenders for the crown, but none of the others have 25 years of marketing and fandom built up. That said, this will be a great test of social media. It's not a mistake that this film currently stands at zero percent on RottenTomatoes, going o-fer for its first nine reviews.

Will this be one of the first films to be sunk by Twitter? Or will artificially lowered expectations help assuage the audience's ire? It will be fascinating to watch play out.

As far as predictions go, I've got it topping out at $34.1 million with tracking suggesting $39 million, but I have a feeling word of mouth is going to kill this one as the weekend wears on.

The contenders aren't really contenders at all, mostly due to poor timing. Side Effects, Warm Bodies, Safe Haven and Beautiful Creatures will all be competing for the same date night dollars. The quality on these projects is all over the board, but I liked three out of four (sorry, Julianne Hough).

I've got both of the romantic new releases, Safe Haven and Beautiful Creatures, performing over tracking at $24 million and $18 million, respectively. Still, if you're looking for monetary slippage that's a nice place to start.

The oddest release of the weekend is Escape from Planet Earth, which didn't screen for critics and looks to have been left for dead by The Weinstein Company. In fact, a lawsuit alleging mishandling of the film was only recently settled, proof positive that something strange is happening here. At just under $12 million I have it slightly under-performing, I'm paying to see it tomorrow so you can hear my take on the film itself on Friday's
podcast.

How say you? It's nice to have four new releases to predict, we're finally headed the right direction at the box office. Give it your best shot!

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We'll have the actual counts in Sunday's wrap-up article.

Laremy's Box-Office Predictions for February 15 - February 17, 2013

  1. A Good Day To Die Hard was #1 at the box-office
  2. Safe Haven () - $24 million
    Playing in 3,000 theaters ($8,000 avg.) / 13%
  3. Beautiful Creatures () - $18 million
    Playing in 3,000 theaters ($6,000 avg.) / $55 million budget / 45%
  4. Identity Thief () - $17.9 million
    Playing in 3,141 theaters ($5,699 avg.) / $35 million budget / 20%
  5. Escape from Planet Earth () - $11.6 million
    Playing in 3,100 theaters ($3,742 avg.)
  6. Warm Bodies () - $7.4 million
    Playing in 3,009 theaters ($2,459 avg.) / $30 million budget / 80%
  7. Side Effects () - $5 million
    Playing in 2,605 theaters ($1,919 avg.) / $30 million budget / 85%
  8. Silver Linings Playbook () - $4.4 million
    Playing in 2,500 theaters ($1,760 avg.) / $21 million budget / 92%
  9. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters () - $2.6 million
    Playing in 2,000 theaters ($1,300 avg.) / $50 million budget / 15%
  10. Zero Dark Thirty () - $2.4 million
    Playing in 2,000 theaters ($1,200 avg.) / $40 million budget / 93%
Click here to browse our box-office charts and compare Laremy's predictions
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  • Arthur Carlson

    1. A Good Day to Die Hard - $30M - Even die hard Die Hard fans are hating this one, so may have best day on Thursday.

    2. Safe Haven - $19.4M

    3. Identity Thief - $19M

    4. Beautiful Creatures - $15.6M

    5. Escape From Planet Earth - $12.8M

  • Chris Etrata

    Good Day to Die Hard: 28 million over friday through sunday
    Safe Haven: 20.2 million
    Beautiful Creatures: 13.2 million
    Escape From Planet Earth: 7.8 million

  • Ganondorf

    1. Safe Haven - $27.5M
    2. A Good Day to Die Hard - $19M
    3. Identity Thief - $15M
    4. Beautiful Creatures - $14.5
    5. Escape From Planet Earth - $11.6M

  • Gerberzy

    A Good Day To Die Hard- 33.1 million
    Safe Haven- 26.7 million
    Beautiful Creatures- 17.5 million
    Escape From Planet Earth- 6.2 million

  • http://usbopredictions2013.blogspot.com/ Mario

    A Good Day to Die Hard -- 63 mln
    Beautiful Creatures -- 29,7 mln
    Escape from Planet Earth -- 15,75 mln
    Safe Haven -- 21,2 mln

  • Athar

    1. A Good Day to Die Hard - $ 42.5 million
    2. Safe Haven - $ 33 million
    3. Beautiful Creatures - $ 19.5 million

    Escape from Planet Earth - $ 12 million

  • http://letterboxd.com/austin/ Austin G.

    A Good Day to Die Hard - $36.1 million
    Safe Haven - $24.9 million
    Identity Thief - $18.1 million
    Beautiful Creatures- $15.5 million
    Escape from Planet Earth- $7.2 million

  • Movie Fan

    A Good Day to Die Hard- $25 million
    Safe Havens- $17 million
    Beautiful Creatures- $16 million

  • Paige

    At first I thought that Die Hard would make over $40 mil and nothing less, but after seeing the endless amount of bad reviews, I have a feeling word of mouth will set in before the weekend is over and weaken the numbers. So now I'm going to say AT LEAST $30 mil. Definitely more than 30, but maybe struggling to get to 40. I may be completely wrong.

    Beautiful Creatures and Safe Haven are the two romance movies for Valentine's Day. I believe they will do relatively the same as each other but with different demographics. Teens will see Beautiful Creatures; adults and young adults will see Safe Haven.

    Escape from Planet Earth is an oddball. It's an animated movie and those are virtually popular with families, but I doubt many families will be interested in seeing it. I can just see them coming up to my box office (I work at a theater myself), seeing the movie on our title board, and going "Eh, we'll just go with Monsters Inc." (yes we still have that movie) It'll do the worst out of them all, especially without Valentine's Day on its belt. Anyway, I ramble.

    Die Hard: $36 mil
    Safe Haven: $20 mil
    Beautiful Creatures: $18 mil
    Escape from Planet Earth: $9 mil

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Andrew13/ Andrew13

    1. A Good Day to Die Hard - 37.3 million
    2. Safe Haven - 23.7 million
    3. Beautiful Creatures - 19.3 million
    4. Identity Thief - 16.2 million
    5. Escape from Planet Earth - 13.1 million
    6. Warm Bodies - 7.5 million
    7. Side Effects - 5.8 million
    8. Silver Linings Playbook - 5.5 million
    9. Zero Dark Thirty - 2.8 million
    10. Hansel & Gretal - 2.5 million

  • CJohn

    A Good Day to Die Hard - 29.2/34.5M
    Safe Heaven - 17.1/19.4M
    Beautiful Creatures - 12.2/13.9M
    Escape From Planet Earth - 12.0M/14.3M

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lawhs89/ lawhs89

    I am looking the the list for worst box office opening weekends for movies with 3,000+ screens, I think Escape from Planet Earth can be top 10, at 4M, maybe worse.

  • Jack

    1. Good Day to Die Hard- $28 million
    2. Identity Thief- $14 million
    3. Safe Haven- $13.5 million
    4. Beautiful Creatures- $12.5 million
    5. Escape from Planet Earth- $8 million
    6. Warm Bodies- $5.5 million
    7. Side Effects- $4 million
    8. Silver Linings Playbook- $3 million
    9. Hansel and Gretel- $2 million
    10. Zero Dark Thirty- $1.5 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Corbin/ Corbin

    Good Day to Die Hard- $35.7 million
    Beautiful Creatures- $24.6 million
    Safe Haven- $18.5 million
    Escape from Planet Earth- $6 million

  • Dennis

    Beautiful Creatures 28.8
    Die Hard 4 26.7
    Safe Haven 13.5

    Escape Planet Earth 2.9

  • John Debono

    1. Die Hard 5: $28.9 million
    2. Beautiful Creatures: $20.2 million
    3. Identity Thief: $17.5 million
    4. Safe Haven: $13.3 million
    5. Escape From Planet Earth: $10 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/coltonhaynes22/ coltonhaynes22

    1. Die Hard 5 32.4/37.1
    2. Beautiful Creatures 23.6/26.2
    3. Safe Haven 21.3/24.5
    4. Identity Thief 15.2/17.2
    5. Warm Bodies 7.4/8.5

  • m1

    I think Silver Linings Playbook might have a slight Valentine's Day bump. At least, that's what I'm hoping.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Will-E/ Will-E

    Die Hard - 29
    Safe Haven - 18.75
    Creatures - 17
    Identity Thief - 16.2
    Planet Earth - 11.5
    Warm Bodies - 5.4
    Side Effects - 5.25
    Playbook - 4.8
    Zero Dark 30 - 2.5
    Hansel Gretel/Mama - 2

  • Jake B

    Die Hard- 36.6 million
    Safe Haven- 25 million
    Beautiful Creatures- 19.5 million
    Escape From planet earth- 7 million