USER POLL: Predict the 2013 Screen Actors Guild Award Winners

2013 SAG Awards Predictions

This Sunday, January 27, the 2013 Screen Actors Guild Awards will be held and we will once again be live-blogging the event with up-to-the-minute commentary and winners, but before we get to all that, let's see if we can predict the winners.

Of course, I didn't really do all that well predicting the Golden Globes a couple weeks back, where I went six-for-14 and in the top six categories I only got three right. The reader polls didn't do much better, though they bested me, with four out of six... Let's see if we can all do a little better this time around.

Below I have included my predictions in the five motion picture categories along with a few comments and a poll for you to vote on the winner. I believe we will all get at least two right as Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) and Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) are essentially locks for a victory, but the other three categories aren't so easy.

Argo seems to be the film that's surging at the moment, while Dreamworks is continuing to push the Lincoln vote hard and you know the Weinstein Co. is hoping to come away with an ensemble victory for Silver Linings Playbook and a win for Jennifer Lawrence in Best Actress over Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty). They don't have Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained) to push in Best Supporting Actor, which really opens that field up, but I'll talk more on that down below.

Let's have a look at the five motion picture categories and also get your votes on each.

I will leave the polls open until midday Sunday, when I will close all five and post the results of each on the site before the start of our live-blogging event of the 2012 SAG Awards starting sometime around 3:30 PST.

MY PICK: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

Daniel Day-LewisThis is a lay-up, we all know how this one is going to turn out unless someone hacked the results.

Best Actor

  • Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) (681 Votes)
  • Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables) (68 Votes)
  • Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) (64 Votes)
  • John Hawkes (The Sessions) (10 Votes)
  • Denzel Washington (Flight) (6 Votes)

Total Voters: 829

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MY PICK: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)

Jennifer LawrenceI am still confidently predicting Jennifer Lawrence is going to beat Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) at the Oscars and that confidence comes from an expectation that Lawrence will also be taking home the SAG Award. The two actresses were both awarded at the Globes and the last time they went head-to-head, at the Critics' Choice Awards, Chastain came out on top. That said, I see the critics going one way and the actors going another. How about you?

Best Actress

  • Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) (450 Votes)
  • Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) (322 Votes)
  • Naomi Watts (The Impossible) (39 Votes)
  • Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone) (25 Votes)
  • Helen Mirren (Hitchcock) (9 Votes)

Total Voters: 845

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MY PICK: Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)

Philip Seymour HoffmanProbably the hardest prediction on the board to make. I'm going wth Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), largely because the love for Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) doesn't really seem to be there and I don't think Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook) has enough juice just yet. Crstoph Waltz (Django Unchained) won the Golden Globe, but he isn't eligible here and Hoffman won the Critics' Choice Award, which I don't really think gives him too much of an edge, but the fact he's won something and Jones has so far won nothing (outside of the Las Vegas Critics Award), I have to go with Hoffman here.

Best Supporting Actor

  • Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook) (274 Votes)
  • Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) (231 Votes)
  • Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) (212 Votes)
  • Javier Bardem (Skyfall) (46 Votes)
  • Alan Arkin (Argo) (40 Votes)

Total Voters: 803

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MY PICK: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

Anne HathawayOkay, every bit as much as Daniel Day-Lewis is a sure-thing, so is Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) and I'm sure we'll all be treated to some sort of "Oh my, I never expected it speech" as she preps for her Oscar crowning, but that's the price of admission folks.

Best Supporting Actress

  • Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) (658 Votes)
  • Sally Field (Lincoln) (63 Votes)
  • Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy) (19 Votes)
  • Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel) (19 Votes)
  • Helen Hunt (The Sessions) (15 Votes)

Total Voters: 774

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MY PICK: Silver Linings Playbook

Silver Linings PlaybookThe year Shakespeare in Love beat Saving Private Ryan at the Oscars for Best Picture, Shakespeare also won the SAG Award for Best Ensemble as well as Best Actress (Gwyneth Paltrow), which means at this point you have to either decide history is going to repeat itself or the times they are a changin'. My prediction is in.

Best Ensemble

  • Silver Linings Playbook (416 Votes)
  • Les Miserables (132 Votes)
  • Lincoln (125 Votes)
  • Argo (99 Votes)
  • The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (10 Votes)

Total Voters: 782

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And that does it for my predictions, but on top of the voting above be sure to add your thoughts in the comments below.

I will see you here this Sunday for the 2013 Screen Actors Guild Awards. The show begins at 6 p.m. (ET)/ 3 p.m. (PT) and the live blog wll probably begin 30 minutes or so before the show starts. I will be blogging with my partner in crime Laremy Legel, and we will be using a new format that should make following the action much, much easier. We can't wait!

If you're interested you can check out our previous SAG live blogs at the following links: 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | Live Blog Home.

  • Xarnis

    My Predictions

    Daniel Day-Lewis

    Jessica Chastain
    This is a tough one, but I think Chastain will win the SAG but lose th Oscar
    I wouldn't be surprised if Lawrence won

    Supporting Actor
    Tommy Lee Jones
    This is the toughest category in my opinion, but I went with Jones just because its a bit of a toss up, and I think Jones has a good chance. Hoffman and De Niro wouldn't be surprises

    Supporting Actress
    Anne Hathaway

    I still think Lincoln is the Best Picture frontrunner and this will confirm my beliefs. Hopefully.

    • Brad Brevet

      I think the PGA on Sunday will be deciding Best Picture. Whatever film wins that will take Best Pic no matter what happens at the SAGs, at least in my opinion.

      • David Gaillardetz

        Ya, I am with you there, Brad. Friends keep asking my predictions, but it is so hard to say anything until the SAG and PGA awards. With so many possibilities right now, I am thinking the winner of PGA is getting Best Picture. There just wont be anything really from then until the Oscars to shift that momentum.

      • Aleonardis

        PGA is so weird though. It could handily go to Les Mis, Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, or Silver Linings. Then again they could also give it to Skyfall which I think would technically be the best choice. It was easily the "best produced," whatever that means, of the nominations.

      • Xarnis

        Lincoln is definitely a lock if it wins Ensemble and the PGA. But if Silver Linings takes one or the other, it could go to a 1999. It seems that these two are determining factors. If one film wins both then it's a lock for best picture.

        Unless the Producers throw a curveball an give the PGA to Skyfall or Argo or something.
        And the Academy could throw a curveball as well and name Argo Best Picture.

        I like this chaos.

      • lalecture

        Agreed. Do you think the PGA will also affect sag winners in the acting categories if a film wins ensemble? If so, what might you lean toward?

    • Fox

      I agree. I see a win for Lincoln ensemble, DDL, and Tommy Lee Jones. I think this is where they start to take control of the race.

      I don't think there's going to be a question come Oscar night.

      • Chris

        I don't know. Nothing points to Lincoln winning anything big besides Best Actor. When people talk about Lincoln, all they talk about is DDL, not the film. I think DDL's powerful performance hurts Jones' chances and even the films. He overshadows the film.

        Then Silver Linings Playbook's gameplan has been expertly executed. Harvey let Lincoln have its 2-3 months of buzz and then attacked when the time was right. Then Argo is fortunate for being unfortunate. Affleck's snub was the best thing that could happen for Argo's chances. Now everyone is talking about Playbook and Ben Affleck's snub. I'd say Silver Linings and Argo both have better chances than Lincoln in taking Best Ensemble. Lincoln is just an afterthought now.

  • RagingTaxiDriver

    Whoever wins best ensemble here, will win Best Picture @ the Oscars. (Except TBEMH)

  • MajorFilmFan

    I do think Lincoln and Les Mis have a chance at winning Best Ensemble, with Lincoln most likely winning. To me, Playbook didn't have ENOUGH characters to really warrant a win for Best Ensemble. The film is really Pat, Tiffany, Pat Sr., Pat's mother, Dr. Patel, and to some extent, Nicki. Lincoln had a much larger cast.

    • Brad Brevet

      Yeah, I considered that... what kind of ensemble is most likely to stand out? By comparison, though, this is a very similar race to Saving Private Ryan vs. Shakespeare in Love even on that leve.

      • lalecture

        Gg results have me leaning toward a "non-sweep" for Lincoln. But hfpa does tend to be unique in some of its awards.
        As far as ensemble goes, I think linings has a well knit cast. If sag votes for quality vs quantity for cast, I'd go for sl. The Lincoln cast was more all star surrounding the overpowering ddl (who was indeed miles beyond his competitors).

    • cady

      It's not the size of the cast that determines the best ensemble, it's the quality of the cast. Getting Oscar nominations in all four acting categories bodes well for SLP.

    • Jordan B.

      I agree with Cady, it's certainly quality over quantity. Each of the characters in Silver Linings Playbook stands out to me, from Pat (Cooper) and Tiffany (Lawrence) to Pat's parents (De Niro and Weaver) to Danny (Tucker) to Dr. Patel (Anupham Kher). And then there are other actors not included in the SAG Ensemble nomination -- John Ortiz and Julia Stiles (as Ronnie and Veronica), Dash Mihok (as Officer Keogh), and yes, even Brea Bee (as Nikki) -- that do something memorable to move the story along. This is a true team of actors working together. Though it may have fewer total characters than Lincoln, its characters are far more memorable.

      Lincoln, on the other hand, is built around Day-Lewis' performance as Lincoln, sort of how sports teams try to build their franchise around one star player. Day-Lewis is that star, and while his supporting cast contains some good actors -- namely Jones as Thaddeus Stevens, Spader as W.N. Bilbo, and David Straithairn as William Seward -- many of the characters in Lincoln don't really stand out to me. It's a big cast, with lots of moving parts, but many of the actors and their characters are extremely one note. Joseph Gordon-Levitt was severely underutilized, and frankly I would have liked the movie better if his character were pretty much excised from the final product, and while everyone seems to love Sally Field's performance, I didn't find anything special about it. Day-Lewis is the driver here, with decent supporting cast members but not a truly memorable team built around him.

      Of course, that's just my opinion, and certainly a strong case could be made for Lincoln or even Les Mis or Argo for that matter, but if we are truly talking about the Best Ensemble, I don't think there's even a debate to be had: Silver Linings Playbook should be the film to come out victorious.

  • MajorFilmFan

    I Love how Bradley Cooper got zero votes in the user poll. If anyone OTHER than DDL is going to win, my vote is for either Hugh Jackman or Cooper. But we ALL KNOW DDL is going to win.

  • MajorFilmFan

    PSH gave a BREATHTAKING performance as The Master, so he absolutely deserves the love he's getting. De Niro and Jones were also fantastic, although I did enjoy Lee Pace's performance as Fernando Wood a little bit more than Jones'

    • Chris

      Really? I found Pace to be overdramatic and almost cartoonish. I've noticed that his performance has divided a lot of people.

      • Newbourne

        DDL's performance was the cartooniest of the bunch, and yet, it has garnered universal praise.

        • Jake17

          Really? I'm interested as to why you'd think that.

          • Newbourne

            While people debated around him, he would smile, tell jokes and laugh in a silly voice. He was a caricature. I'm not the only person to describe his performance as such.

            • Central Ohio

              Maybe you should read a history book. If you knew anything about the real lincoln you would know that's the way his voice was, that's the way his demeanor and mannerisms were also. DDL nailed it! Anyone who argue's otherwise, I would say they were looking for Henry Fonda.

              • Newbourne

                If DDL had played Bugs Bunny on film and I called it "cartoony", would you also protest? It's not my fault the source material (in this case, Abraham Lincoln himself) was cartoony.

  • Jack

    Tommy Lee Jones isn't winning. He has no momentum, no awards, nothing. Plus he doesn'y even deserve the nomination. Same goes for Field, if she upsets Hathaway, I would be livid.

    DeNiro is my alternate, but I still don't see him pulling it off.

    Hoffman wins, i hope at least. He deserves it.

    Arkin is the dark horse, surprise. If he wins, i think Argo wins ensemble.

  • Kessler

    My Predictions:

    Best Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis. I'll be shocked if anyone else wins.

    Best Actress - Jessica Chastain. Only because I feel that Chastain has more momentum than Lawrence right now.

    Best Supporting Actor - Tommy Lee Jones. Tough category, but I'm sticking with TLJ because I think he has a better shot than Hoffman or De Niro. There's no favorite in this category, but how crazy would it be if Javier Bardem won?

    Best Supporting Actress - Anne Hathaway. Same with DDL

    Best Ensemble - Lincoln. It's either this or SLP. I'm still going with Lincoln only because I think it's more of an acting ensemble than SLP is.

    • lalecture

      As far as best actress, I think you may be right. Chastain will beat out Lawrence because of momentum. Not because she had a better overall performance. That said, I'd love to see Lawrence awarded for her talented portrayal. At such a young age, I am very impressed with Jennifer's natural talent.

  • Winchester

    Went with Lewis, Watts, Hoffman, Hathaway and Argo for ensemble.

    • Aleonardis

      Your Watts choice is interesting. I don't think the SAG category here is going to have any sway in the Oscars but Watts isn't out of the race even if she doesn't win here. That category is REALLY up in the air. I'm thinking Riva takes it though.

  • William

    It's tough for me to say with Best Actress, because Chastain really has more momentum on her side at this time (even though both of them won the Golden Globe); but Lawrence still has Harvey Weinstein on her side.

  • AS

    It sucks that this is on at 6 P.M. I have somewhere to be at 7 so I'll only able to watch half of it live.

    • Travis

      It starts at 8. 6 is when the red caper and live blog start

      • Travis

        Although I'm just remembering east vs. west coast, so just kind of ignore that unless it is pertinent

      • AS

        By EST, the actual show starts at 6 P.M. (which is unusual, since most award shows start at 8).

  • jessied44

    DDL will probably win. Hugh Jackman deserves to win for a role where he aged thirty years with four distinct faces while singing and acting each age to perfection - a totally multilayered performance. All of it was done while up to his chest in icy water, climbing through snow-covered mountains in threadbare robes, slogging through watered peat sludge and physically changing in order to achieve the correct look for each stage of the role. No one but no one else could have done what he did for this role or even came close to doing that this year. (Yes that goes for Daniel Day-Lewis)

    • Xarnis

      Daniel Day-Lewis took a year to fully be one his character and never broke it once during filming.

      As for Hugh Jackman on icy mountain tops, that was one shot of the movie, and on the other side of the camera was some hot chocolate and and a nice warm jacket waiting for him. And his aging can be attributed to the makeup department. He was good, but Day-Lewis fully BECAME Lincoln and crushed his role. That's my opinion.

      • jessied44

        Sorry - My opinion - More than three months of rehearsal, three months of filming, singing live 10-12 hours a day. Losing and gaining more than 30 pounds to "become" Val Jean. DDL didn't deliver his best for Lincoln, and there is no way he could have even attempted what Jackman did.

  • Manny

    Jennifer Lawrence all the way to the Oscars. Her performance was both riveting and refreshing; the best among the five nominees.

  • Travis

    I'm calling Les Mis here, but I have Silver Linings for my pool, so we'll see. I liked Les Mis in terms of ensemble, but I Silver Linings' small cast meshed well

  • Ian

    Daniel Day-Lewis, Jessica Chastain, Alan Arkin, Anne Hathaway, Silver Linings.

    I'm starting to get a bizarre feeling that Arkin will be the one to make the move in supporting actor. The best rationale I have is that Argo has been making waves lately, but the guilds / Academy are clearly far more in love with Silver Linings and Lincoln. No one in this category really has any buzz and it seems like the only place to award Argo.

    The PGAs will be interesting...I honestly have no idea which way they go, with Lincoln, Silver Linings, and Argo all looking like co-frontrunners. If forced to make a choice, I'd have to go with Silver Linings. I think this is 2010-11 all over again and this is when Silver Linings starts to make its move.

  • Dj

    I think your underestimateing how much people LOVE chastain within the industry. I mean the screeners went out late for Zero and django so thats why they didn't qualify for anything but even still they voted chastain in that is love. Its the same with kidman and streep if they're in something remotely dramatic they'll get a nod chastain's in that automatic nom club or well on her way.

  • Abhishek

    After watching DJANGO twice..i think this is high time for Academy to make a Tarantino film win the Best Picture...with all respect to Argo and Lincoln..they are brilliant films..but Tarantino has to be given credit for handling a subject so sensitive like Slavery and even though the film is the top entertainer of the could still feel the horror of slavery in this film...its brutal..and it deserves the top prize...Spike Lee says that he doesnot want to watch this film for his own so called ideologies and all and believes Slavery is equivalent to Holocaust and not so some blockbuster material...but i think tat scenario is visible in Unchained....for me Best Pic-PGA, BAFTA and Oscars..Django is the pick..!!!! I havent seen PTA's The i wont be able to say anything about Hoffman..but for me Arkin pulled out quite a performance...

  • chriscarmichael

    Well I did have this set to record on the DVR. After seeing Django Unchained isnt nominated I will be taking this off of programs scheduled to record. I wont support this when they ignored the best film of the year and nominated a bunch of crap

    • Jack

      One man's crap is another's treasure.

  • Zoey

    Daniel Day-Lewis is a lock, and I think Jessica Chastain deserves to win. Her performance in 'Zero Dark Thirty' made that movie, and she was nominated last awards season. She's the proven talent and a box office draw, whereas Jennifer Lawrence has maybe two performances that are worth considering.

    • Ellen

      ‘’Jennifer Lawrence has maybe two performances that are worth considering’’???????????
      *The Poker House (Los Angeles Film Festival – Outstanding Performance Award)
      *The Burning Plain (Venice Film Festival – Marcello Mastroianni Award)
      *Winter's Bone (Nominated—Academy Award for Best Actress)
      *The Hunger Games (Broadcast Film Critics Association Award for Best Actress in an Action Movie)
      *Silver Linings Playbook (Pending—Academy Award for Best Actress)

      • Zoey

        Case in point: Her acting in 'The Hunger Games' is horrid. It goes to show you that awards do not always reflect the quality of the performance.

        By the way, your overly emotional response makes poor representation of female cinephiles.

        • lalecture

          Emotions aside, Lawrence has done some amazing work in the past several years. Ellen has listed them. Certainly everyone has a reason for their opinions. If you have the gumption to see her in these, it's likely you might change your opinion about her acting abilities.
          Chastain is also quite talented. But side by side, looking at their performances in zdt and slp respectively, my thoughts are that Lawrence comes out on top.

          • Zoey

            I saw 'Winter's Bone' when it first came out. Jennifer Lawrence impressed audiences in it because she was relatively unknown. I feel that the hype surrounding 'Silver Linings Playbook' is unwarranted. It's an overrated film, in my opinion.

            Yes, Jennifer Lawrence is a capable actress. Amazing? Not in my book. With Jessica Chastain, not only do you get performances that are widely different from one character to another ('Take Shelter', 'Zero Dark Thirty', 'Lawless' & 'Mama' are examples that I've seen), but she's selective in her roles.

            Clear and simple: I feel that Chastain's performance in 'Zero Dark Thirty' is better than Lawrence's in 'Silver Linings Playbook'. A restrained and nuanced performance is more difficult than one where you let it all out. But the political controversy has hindered 'Zero Dark Thirty's award chances, because Hollywood has ties to Congress.

            • lalecture

              Actually, I agree with you in that restrained and nuanced characters are more challenging.
              I haven't seen Jessica in anything else besides the help and zdt. I'll take a look at take shelter and lawless so I can get a better feel for her range.
              We are like two sides of the same coin, it seems!
              And I also agree with the issue of politics coming into play which seems unfair.
              And I disagree with the eval of Jens character being narrowed down to "one where you let it all hang out"!but I can agree to disagree!
              I like your input!

              • Zoey

                One of the reasons why I love movies, is because I enjoy the experience of sharing different viewpoints afterwards. Just because two people disagree about something, doesn't mean that one of them has to be wrong, while the other is right. It simply means that there's a difference in taste, and this is what makes life infinitely interesting.

                On my blog in one of my posts, I described it as such: "Movies are a completely subjective experience. This is true of any art form. An audience can watch the same film, and then walk away with different opinions, insights and varied levels of enjoyment. We each bring our own expectations, and everything that we see and hear in a movie is filtered through our unique scope of experience."

                Thank you for sharing your thoughts with me. I enjoyed our conversation. If you'd like, you can contact me through Twitter @zen4zoey or on my film blog with the link above.

    • Manny

      Jessica was okay in Zero Dark Thirty. The performance is not awards worthy. Others were better. Lawrence's performance was refreshing; she deserves to win. And she will.

      • Zoey

        Just a difference of opinion. I grew up with a father who worked in the intelligence community, and Jessica Chastain's performance did justice to the real life CIA targeting analyst.

        As for Jennifer Lawrence in 'Silver Linings Playbook', it's easy for any actress to play an unhinged or crazy character. Look at Angelina Jolie. She won a Best Supporting Actress Oscar for doing that, and she was just being herself.

        • lalecture

          In reference to your above post, zoey, Id be interested in a few of your favorite performances of this year-male and female.
          Also, can you post a link to your blog?