USER POLL: No 'Dark Knight' or 'WALL-E' – Let's Talk Bottom of the Best Picture Crop
No bat, no bot, what does that leave us?
I am just about ready to write The Dark Knight out of the top five contenders for the Oscar Best Picture, but I can't seem to figure out exactly what film to replace it with. As the headline implies, it won't be with WALL•E, a film that has earned some definite sympathy after many critics groups named it Best Picture of 2008. However, as much as those critical nods helped WALL•E isn't it likely they also may have hurt it by giving it its due so the Academy didn't have to? Not necessarily a theory I subscribe to, but a theory nonetheless.
As a matter of fact, as I am pushing Batman and the robot out of contention for this hypothetical, how about all the assurance that Ron Howard's Frost/Nixon has secured a spot among the top five. Where is the confidence in this picture coming from? Sure, Frost/Nixon was a perfectly fine film, but Best Picture? Was it really one of the five Best Pictures released in 2008? What about that film makes it extraordinary?
Of course, for this scenario I am going to subscribe to the notion that Frost/Nixon is in and the following films make up the list of "locked" Best Picture nominees:
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Frost/Nixon
- Milk
- Slumdog Millionaire
With that in mind, what film takes that fifth and final spot?
We all know the Oscars aren't about giving the award to the actual best motion picture of the year. If it were, we would be talking about films like The Class, Ballast and I've Loved You So Long. Nope, instead we are talking about generally accepted good films that have received a healthy dose of buzz, are traditional Oscar bait and have done a good job of getting in the face of the voters. The critics' kudos, reviews and Oscar punditry certainly helps matters as the 5,819 voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences sit down to make their decision.
However, when this group of actors (1,243), producers (454), executives (440), sound technicians (412), writers (396), directors (374), art directors (373), public relation specialists (369), animation artists (330), visual effects artists (264), members at large (254), musicians (235), editors (223), cinematographers (195), documentarians (141) and makeup artists (116) and they are left to decide between a robot, a man that dresses up as a bat to battle a maniacal clown and a professional wrestler passed his prime and trying to pick up the pieces which direction do you think they will be leaning? I don't say this as a pessimist, but as a realist.
So what films are left?
In my opinion it comes down to Revolutionary Road, The Wrestler, Doubt and if someone gets really lucky and Harvey Weinstein agrees to pay all the Academy members' bills in 2009 The Reader.
Now, if you subscribe to my "Frost/Nixon is not worthy" campaign that would imply two of the above films have a chance of worming their way into the Best Picture slot, but I am asking you to pick only one.
In the poll below, pick one of those four films, or the "Other" column, you believe has the best chance of taking that fifth and final slot should neither The Dark Knight or WALL•E get the nod.
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That's a very good question, Brad. I'm going to have to say Revolutionary Road, with Doubt close on its trails. The Wrestler definitely deserves to be nominated, but I can't see it making the final cut.
I also think that after the Golden Globe nomination for Best Picture, the SAG nomination for Best Ensemble and now the PGA award, Frost/Nixon is certainly in, and if Ron Howard manages to grab a nod from the DGA, it will definitely be a lock.
I can't see any of them getting head of Wall*E or The Dark Knight. Regardless, I picked "The Wrestler".
Revolutionary Road thoroughly disturbed me and I loved the Wrestler!
I picked Doubt.
The only one of these I haven't seen is The Reader (which hopefully I will get to see this weekend but it's about a 50/50 shot at this point).
Revolutionary Road seemed like a missed chance. The characters seemed a little too generic and needed to be fleshed out more. On the Filmspotting podcast they say (and I agree) that the two main actors hit every note they need to hit, but you just never buy into their characters.
The Wrestler……that's a tricky one. I really like the ending, and Mickey Rourke is pretty great (although not on my short list for Best Actor), but there were so many contrived story points, and Evan Rachel Wood's performance (and character in general) was awful. I wouldn't push for it for Best Picture, but I'll agree with a Best Actor nod (and maybe a Best Supporting Actress nod).
Doubt was the strongest to me of the films on this list, and I'd rather see it in the hunt than Ben Button or Frost/Nixon.
My predictions:
– The Dark Knight
– Milk
– Doubt
– Slumdog Millionaire
– Frost/Nixon or Revolutionary Road
I still think Ben Button isn't gonna make it.
I've seen this on multiple blogs, so I don't doubt that it's accurate speculation, but why is everyone doubting that TDK will be given a Best Picture nom?
@Dan: For me it's a gut feeling. However, as you can tell from the article it's a decision that has my gut torn, which means I probably won't be changing my picks…
@Scott: That's a big limb you are out there on Scott, but gotta respect you for it and you have obviously thought about it. Your points on The Wrestler are definitely why I think it will miss out and Rev Road is such a strange film to gauge… Watching it a second time I think it would have been great on the stage, just not on the big screen.
It will be "The Dark Knight." And I don't think "Frost/Nixon" is as assured as you believe it to be. It's not scoring hot per-theater averages right now despite its limited release. "Wall-E" still has a fighting chance.
Wait, I'm confused. What made you suddenly write off TDK and Wall-e? I didn't notice any big motion happening. If anything, Wall-e's and TDK's buzz only increased. Both appeared on almost every 'top 10' list of the year. Both scored victories for best picture. Both are immensely popular and commercially successful.
I don't see any reason why they would drop out of contention. So, I'm going to stick to my assumption that the nominees will be:
-Milk
-Slumdog Millionaire
-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
-Frost/Nixon
-The Dark Knight
For a win, it's beween Slumdog and Benjamin Button. Maybe one will pick up 'director' and the other 'picture'. I don't know.
@Mozzerrella: Since when did box office determine Oscar chances? History shows that it doesn't.
@Ethan: It's all hypothetical, just like I said in the article. I haven't written off anything and actually just two comments above yours I say how Dark Knight probably will remain in my top five.
I really think The Wrestler was an incredible film, so if The Dark Knight (which I also loved) isn't nominated, I think The Wrestler should get that 5th spot.
I have a feeling that Revolutionary Road is going to get the spot just because this is the first time Winslett and DiCaprio have been in a movie together since Titanic (which was hyped up enough to begin with), it was based off of a respected book, and Sam Medes is Winslett's husband, this being the first time they've worked together. These may sound like weak arguements, sure, but often it seems like this is the stuff the Academy cares most about. That was my vote.
I would like to see The Dark Knight take that fifth spot because I honestly believe it was one of the best movies of the year. I held off saying that until I saw the "big" movies that were "Oscar worthy", but now I really do think it should have a spot.
Seeing as how the Academy will most likely look down on The Dark Knight because it's a comic book movie, my hope is that Doubt will take number five. I wasn't sure how good/bad that would be, but I was pretty impressed with it.
I am also of the belief that Frost/Nixon shouldn't be in the Best Picture category. It was a good film, but I didn't think it was great. In fact I'm usually on the opposite side of things when it comes to that movie, the biggest instance being that I think Michael Sheen should be nominated for Leading Actor as opposed to Frank Langella, because I found Sheen to give a better performance.
So ideally, I would like to see Frost/Nixon out and then see The Dark Knight and Doubt as the fourth and fifth spots. But if F/N IS taken out, I still think Revolutionary Road will take the fourth and then it comes down to (hopefull) either TDK or Doubt for number five.
I think the Academy are mindful of their tv ratings and will nominate The Dark Knight purely on the fact that their viewership will surge, granted I think it should win Best Picture. It will definitely win a bunch of technical awards.
Wall-e, on the other hand, I think is definitely going to lose out simply because of the Animated Feature category, which is one of the same reasons why documentaries never get nominated for Best Picture either.
With that said, I agree with Ethan's predictions:
-Milk
-Slumdog Millionaire
-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
-Frost/Nixon
-The Dark Knight
I think Revolutionary Road will lose out simply because it's disappointing considering the talent behind it, although I did find it to be a very good movie anyway. Also, I think The Wrestler will definitely get an actor nod, but I don't think it will get a picture nod because the Academy is definitely rooted in a Modernistic mindset that the movies should be a reflection of the elite (i.e. "artsy"), and The Wrestler is a very postmodern, gritty movie. As for Doubt and The Reader, I haven't seen either of them but they are getting more mixed review than the others on that list so we'll see.
The Oscars NEED to nominate The Dark Knight. Why, so ask? Well, TDK is like LoTR was 5 years ago. Ratings were at an all time high for the telecast. Fans of the trilogy were finally able to see it win the Best Picture, but even a nod was good enough for them. Now, LoTR 3 didnt make as much MONEY as TDK did. Think about if all the LoTR, and even more tuned in to the telecast…that would be the biggest turn-out for the Oscars in years. I mean, people I would have never thought would watch the Oscars are keeping up with it. The Oscars need a boost. The Dark Knight could give it to them. I think also that The Dark Knight is superior to all the others Brad suggested. And the academy better watch it if they piss off the fanboys like they did with the GGs and the SAGs. See how the ratings go for those. Heath Ledger isn't enough. If the Oscars are smart…TDK will get a nod….and if not…well, we will see the results…TDK all the way!
also…here are the reasons why Doubt, Rev. Road, The Wrestler, and The Reader WONT be nominated
Dobut-The movie was good, but it never clearly gives you a definate answer, and the ending might leave a bad taste in one's mouth, and Amy Adam's performance was okay, but not great.
Rev. Road-This movie is just too sad and depressing for these days. Nobody wants to sit through 2 hours of people arguing about home issues. People do that enough in their own lives anyway. The performances were good, but I mean, this movie is not one that Oscars shoud nominate.
The Wrestler-I loved the Wrestler. I mean, I'm talkin top 10 of the year…I wouldn't mind a nod for this one, but….this film might not have the affect on some voters as it did on me. The film rests heavily on Mickey Rourke. The edgeiness of the film might turn some voters away too. I could see a nod, but I doubt it.
The Reader-This film seems to me like The Great Debators was last year. No body even cared before it got a Golden Globe nomination, but thats the thing. It has just gotten a Golden Globe nomination. Nothing else besides honors for Winslet, and a GG for Daldry. This film hasn't done good anywhere else, and didn't do hot with the critics either.
So TDK and Wall-e have a better chance than these few.
This is why I can't watch the Oscars. The movies that are nominated are done so beacuse why?
Not because people went to see the movies and enjoyed them but because a few critics think it's good but obviously the public doesn't.
The Ironman, Dark Knight, WALL-E, Hancock. These were all great movies and the public thought so. Guess what. These 4 movies are in the top 5 of all grossing movies in 2008 with the least making over 200 million domestically. Those movies should win awards for Best Picture because they were.
Give best actor and stuff to whoever but best picture should truly be, "Best Picture".
@David: WRONG. I believe the point of nominating films like that is so that they will receive a wider audience. This process has proven to work.
Also, how can you justify saying that they majority prefers films like Iron Man, The Dark Knight and Hancock when you've clearly pointed out that the public hasn't seen the smaller, independent films that aren't lucky enough to get a wide release.
The fact that critics get behind these smaller films is also a positive indication of their worth when it comes to finding an audience.
I think that Australia should be winning, at least nominated, for this years best picture. It's the best film I have ever seen, even better then Titanic, without any doubt. I loved the story, the acting by the actors a specially by Brendan Walters who really deserves a Oscar nod for his perfomence. 5 of 5 and 10 of 10. I hope it will rule the Oscars.
Lots of love: Ilir from sweden!
I clicked on 'other' … and my choice is a film that has no chance of being nominated. As ludicrous as it sounds, this film has a rottentomatoes rating of 60 percent which is way to low!
i (and a whole bunch of my friends, family, neighbors, relatives, colleagues) absolutely fell in love with this film. I personally liked it more than Doubt, Revolutionary road or Reader.
I'm talking about 'The Fall'.
The correct order is:
The Dark Knight
Revolutionary Road
Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
I only know because I have seen the voting. So no Wall-E, No Doubt, no Frost/Nixon.
Sorry, but those are just facts.
I would like to see In Bruges make it – Definitely for Original screenplay at least.
I really do not think Slumdog is as good as everyone says it is although I really did enjoy – I just like enjoyed Ironman but I still wouldn't put them in Best Picture talk. That being said your four shoe ins are probably correct and for the fifth I would lean towards TDK
The Dark Knight anyday (should be number one), but to be honest your probably right about it missing the top five because critics simply don't know what there talking about.
(Specifically the ones who deal with that kind of thing).
I like to be entertained when I see a movie. If I want my brain stimulated, I read a good long novel and immerse myself in that. I can't be bothered watching some of the academy loving borefest material.
While I was sick and tired of hearing about The Dark Knight because some guy who played some cowboy in a movie and OD'd was so good (He was alright but by no means what critics made him out to be) the movie was really good. It was entertaining. IronMan the same. I can't stand Downy movies from before this but Ironman was great.
they'll put TDK in contention, but ill be surprised if it won(even though it was the most entertaining and mind blowing out of all of them). They just want ratings.
I… haven't seen any of those four movies yet. *sob* I'm so ashamed…
I picked Doubt because the play is my favourite play, and John Patrick Shanley would seriously have to do something completely stupid to not get an Oscar nom for it. But if any other film should get an nom, it should be In Bruges. It damn well deserves a nomination, but it won't get one because it's small and foul-mouthed and British.
I dont care who the five are, I picked Wrestler as the fifth, as long as Frost/Nixon misses out. It is not great by any means, just as Brad put it. That is just how I felt about Micheal Clayton last year. Both films dont deserve a nomination in my opinion.
Dammit – being a Brit I haven't seen any of the contenders because there not out here yet! Both Frost/Nixon & Slumdog Millionaire are on my "to watch" list though. And maybe Button, since my love of David Fincher just about cancels out my dislike of Brad Pitt.
That said, I can see CCOBB and/or TDK being nominated for the TV ratings. Honestly, if it's stupid o'clock in the morning, are you going to bother staying up to find out which one of 5 films you haven't seen are going to be voted Best Picture?
Oh, and Milk will win, if only so everyone can prove how non-homophobic they are after all the fuss about Brokeback Mountain being robbed.
I don't believe that movies that are just 'fun' should be viable for a best picture win. Making a movie fun is very simple- best picture is reserved for movies that are MORE than just that. Bigger, more important, more influential, more provoking, more revolutionary.
You want to know why the masses rarely take to 'Oscar movies'? That's because the masses have repeatedly shown to go to movies for the purpose of dumb escapism. Oscar movies are generally weightier and heavier. I mean no offense to the 'masses' ('blockbuster' being used as an insult is pathetic), but most people simply aren't willing to face a movie that features entertainment on the cerebral level.
TDK is so great because it manages to be a movie that can be enjoyed for its entertainment value and its intellectual power. The former makes it popular with the masses, the latter makes it an oscar-worthy movie.
I predict that it will be:
Benjamin Button
Doubt
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Frost/Nixon was ok, but for me, it didn't have "it" to be among the best picture nominees. Besides, I feel that id doesn't figure to be one that will have as passionate support from voters that will make it their no.1 or no.2 in their nominating ballots. Wall-E and TDK seemingly has that kind of strong passionate support and I see both garnering plenty of no.1's and no.2's. I give the edge to Wall-E. It helps that the film is getting unprecedented momentum for an animated film, being on every top 10 of critics groups and film groups, and actually winning a handful of best picture accolades already. The only thing that I see keeping it from the best picture arena is if some voters can't see it in them to view it as a film, and sees it as a cartoon through and through-which would be a damn shame.
oh, and if Wall-E and TDK are take out as this hypothetical suggests, I think it would be Doubt and Revolutionary Road-though I would prefer the wrestler-joining sure bets Button, Milk, and Slumdog.
Button
Milk
Slumdog
Frost Nixon
Doubt (in place of Wall-E)
@Garrett: I did not intend that the boxoffice was the end-all for determining the nominees. But I do believe it can play a slight factor. What about when "Atonement" got nominated over "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"? Or when "Chocolat" was nominated over the critically acclaimed "Almost Famous"? It's never absolute and frequently is not the end-all, but it can happen.
If they were smart theyd nominate the dark knight theyd get so much more viewers but it doesnt work like that.
I think they WILL nominate the dark knight and after it gets nominated it will open everrone's eyes to something new. Even if the movie is animated of based off a comic book it can still be a great movie. It probably wont win but id be very happy if it get a nod.
I have a great feeling that Christopher Nolan might WIN an oscar for using imax cameras and stuff like that but thats just me
@Michael: Perhaps the worst reason to nominate a movie would be based on television ratings.
I voted for "Doubt." I think the "The Wrestler" is very, very likely. However, I hope it doesn't get nominated, because then it means I'll have to watch it. I really like Darren Aronofsky, and I know "The Wrestler" has gotten some good reviews, but it all boils down to the fact that I have absolutely no interest in wrestling. Nada. Name one other sports film that got nominated for Best Picture and received the most praise due to its lead actor. If you're on the same page as me, you're saying: "Raging Bull." Yup. Awful film. Simply awful. Well-made, well-acted, but effing awful. Jake Lamotta was an ignorant, boorish man who never deserved to have a film made about him. I don't care how much talent went into that movie–it all fell apart because we were supposed to sympathize with a character who deserved no sympathy.
From what I see in the trailers for "The Wrestler," Mickey Rourke seems to be playing another down-on-his-luck sports person who's estranged his daughter and is trying to make a comeback. Red flags are going up all around. Sure, it won't be as bad as "Raging Bull," and sure Darren Aronofsky is a damn sight better at directing than Martin Scorsese, but I still don't want to watch "The Wrestler." But if it gets nominated for Best Picture, I'll feel obligated to, because I've promised myself to watch all the Best Picture nominees, just like I did last year,
Anyway, back to "Doubt." It's just a great film. I has an extremely good chance of being nominated for Best Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay, and maybe even Best Actor. That's three of the five major academy awards. With that many, the chance of also being nominated for Best Picture increase exponentially. It'll also probably get a nom for Best Supporting Actress and Best Musical Score.
1. Milk
2. The Dark Knight
3. The Reader
4. Doubt
5. The Wrestler/Frost-Nixon
Mind you oscars does have the animated movie category for this specific dilema… Wall-E is going to win it hands down.. but i too think Wall-E deserves a special mention in the main category… it was a breathe of fresh air in a year where most movies focused on despair and other ugly human emotions… i hope its either Milk or The Dark Knight
I think it will be…
Button
Milk
Slumdog
Wall-E
Frost Nixon
but hypothetically, if Wall-E is out along with The Dark Knight, I think it'll be…
Button
Milk
Slumdog
Frost Nixon
Doubt
I loved TDK but I think it'll fall into the same boat as The Diving Bell and the Butterfly last year, which got a PGA nomination but missed out on best picture. I didn't think Wall-E would stand a chance at gaining even a little momentum for the big prize this awards season considering the bias against animation, but boy was I dead wrong. I'm hoping it makes it.
I hope Wall-E and TDK makes it along with the 3 sure things, Slumdog, Milk, and Button. However, if both are taken out of the equation, I think it'll be Frost/Nixon and Doubt taking the 2 spots. I'll only be happy if both Wall-E and TDK makes it, if one gets left out, then you're not gonna want to be around me for a couple of weeks.
The Reader
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Button or Milk FTW; could easily replace Milk with Dark Knight; simply because Milk has more of a performance buzz going for it; or even The Reader could be replaced because there really hasn't been that big of a buzz around that one.
Plus, I have a feeling Slumdog would be nominated and win the Best Foreign Film prize.
Gran Torino
I didn´t saw "the reader" yet but if I think about the story of the book and the performances by Kate and David I have to give that movie my vote.