Friday Estimates

'Unstoppable' and 'Megamind' Tangle for Box-Office Supremacy after a Close Friday Finish

It's going to be a close one

The Friday box-office estimates are in and it's a close race at the top with Fox's Unstoppable edging out DreamWorks's Megamind at the moment, but if history tells us anything, the family toon typically performs better over Saturday and Sunday, which means Megamind is likely to take the top spot for a second weekend in a row.

Opening with $8.1 million, the well-reviewed Unstoppable should amass approximately $24 million for the weekend, a number that doesn't necessarily bode well for the film's profitability. If you'll remember, Unstoppable had some serious bumps along the way to getting made as Denzel Washington was on and off the project over salary disputes and ultimately the once $107 million budgeted feature was trimmed down to $100 million. Still a hefty number for a film that looks like it will make only $24 million its opening weekend.

As for Megamind, in its second weekend it has already taken in $7.9 million on Friday, which should amount to approximately $26-27 million for the weekend. This is still about $6 million off Laremy's predictions, and this one has a hefty $130 million budget to make back. However, it's already on track, taking in over $81 million worldwide in its first week. If Megamind drops the anticipated 41% this weekend it will be interesting to see how it holds on in the coming weeks with Disney's Tangled waiting in the wings.

Also in its second weekend is Todd Phillips's R-rated comedy, Due Date, taking in $5.5 million on Friday for a likely $14 million weekend, a 57% drop from last weekend. This isn't exactly stellar for a film budgeted at $65 million, but by the time the weekend is through it will have earned approximately $57 million domestically and with already $22 million in foreign receipts, this one should do just fine.

The weekend's next newcomer is Universal's Skyline from the brothers that directed Alien vs. Predator - Requiem and drenched it in absolute darkness to the point you couldn't actually see what was going on. I'm not sure if Skyline enjoyed a similar blackout as it wasn't screened for press here in Seattle, but reviews from those that did go see it haven't been kind. Skyline took in $4.7 million on Friday, and I expect that number will drop significantly over the next two days for a total somewhere around $9-10 million for the weekend. Nikki Finke at Deadline disagrees and thinks it will total $14 million, but I'm just not seeing it.

Finally, at #5 is Paramount's dramedy Morning Glory, which opened on Wednesday and in its first two days brought in a meager $2.6 million. The film, which split critics but I personally enjoyed, managed $3.1 million on Friday, which should continue over the next two days for an approximate $9 million three-day total. Not exactly knocking it out the box.

I have included Friday's top ten directly below and will be back on Sunday with a complete wrap-up of the weekend.

  1. Unstoppable - $8.1 million
  2. Megamind - $7.9 million
  3. Due Date - $5.5 million
  4. Skyline - $4.7 million
  5. Morning Glory - $3.1 million
  6. For Colored Girls - $2 million
  7. Red - $1.6 million
  8. Paranormal Activity 2 - $1 million
  9. Saw 3D - $968,000
  10. Jackass 3D - $787,000
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  • Winchester

    Scott's last film Pelham opened to about the same amount and also cost about $100 million and from what I can tell likely didn't make much money overall once it's disappointing theatrical run ended.

    I'll be mildly curious to see if Unstoppable has better legs at the box office.

    • BIENVENIDOSAHAVOK

      Yeah but Pelham had middling reviews and opened in more robust summertime. Unstoppable has solid reviews and has at least a couple good weeks to make money (I don't think The Next Three Days will do all that well). It should probably make more money than Scott's last few films, probably somewhere in the $70 million range.

      • Winchester

        I think The Next Three Days will get stomped by Harry Potter (at least in it's first weekend - why anything is even trying to open against it I'm not sure) that's true. It depends how it does internationally, but I wouldn't have thought that $70 million US on a $100 million budget was anything to be delighted about.

        Which is a shame, because I'm actually more interested in 3 Days than Unstoppable anyway.

        But I was looking at Tony Scott's results over his last few films. His movies are pretty costly, and they don't really make very impressive amounts of money.

  • Steve J

    Why does a film like "Morning Glory" come out on Wednesday? Curious to hear answers.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      Get a jump on the weekend thanks to Veterans Day... It just didn't really work out.

      • Stiggy

        Surely you'd think that Unstoppable and Skyline whould have gotten the jump on the weekend as well.

  • m1

    It's really sad that Skyline made more than Morning Glory.

    • Stiggy

      It just goes to show that concept trumps star-power.

  • Danny

    Skyline is not a good movie... and this is coming from a guy who generally enjoys most films, even ones that a lot of critics don't like... The whole movie was all build up and then nothing but a rediculous ending... that seemed to be for a completely different movie... avoid the movie at all costs... in my opinion anyway

  • Stiggy

    Next week 2 things are almost certain.

    1. Deathly Hallows part 1 will be frontloaded
    2. Made in Dagenham will be the biggest flop since MacGruber.

    • Winchester

      'Flop' is entirely relative when discussing modest UK films released in the US.

      If 'The Boat That Rocked' couldn't make many inroads into the US, 'Dagenham' sure as hell has no chance since no-one in the US will have the slightest clue what or where Dagenham is anyway.

      • Stiggy

        The only way that Made in Dagenham will find an audience is dependent on whether or not it gets Independent Spirit Award nominations.

        Made in Dagenham will flop because it's award season chances are next to zero.

        MacGruber flopped because
        A. Nobody outside of America knows about Saturday Night Live
        B. Hardly anybody remembers MacGyver, which of course MacGruber is a spoof of.