Oscar Contenders

Three Scenarios for Tonight's 2013 Screen Actors Guild Awards and Your Prediction Results

'Argo' vs. 'Lincoln' vs. 'Silver Linings Playbook'

2013 SAG Awards Predictions

In just over an hour we will be live blogging tonight's 2013 Screen Actors Guild Awards beginning around 3 PM PST, but first I thought we could take a look at the results of your predictions as well as what it might mean for the Oscar race depending on which films win tonight.

First off, I don't think it's any secret Argo has the momentum after wins at the Critics' Choice Awards, Golden Globes and last night's Producers Guild Awards. A couple days ago it seemed the race for SAG's Best Ensemble category was between Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook with an outside chance for Les Miserables, but now it would be silly not to include Argo in that horse race leaving The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel nominees to drink as much as they want without fear they'll have to go up and give an acceptance speech.

The question, however, is to ask Can Argo actually win Best Ensemble?

When my SAG predictions were posted on Thursday I picked Silver Linings to win Ensemble, but last night in my write up of the results of the Producer Guild Awards I said I "would change that vote to Argo in a heartbeat." That was a knee-jerk reaction and one I can't stand by today.

I still think we're looking at a race between Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook and I don't expect either Les Mis or Argo to play spoiler. Even further, I still think Silver Linings is the likely winner.

What does this mean for the Oscar race? Well, here are three scenarios I can see coming out of tonight.

Scenario #1: Argo wins Best Ensemble and goes on to win Best Picture.

Scenario #2: Silver Linings Playbook wins Best Ensemble and Best Picture becomes a race between Argo, Silver Linings and Lincoln, though I think Silver Linings is going to need a little more help than just one win, but more on that after...

Scenario #3: Lincoln wins Best Ensemble and the race for Best Picture is between Argo and Lincoln with Argo the narrow front-runner.

If you're wondering how often Best Picture matches up with Best Ensemble each year, the answer is, not often. Only eight times in the 17 years the award has been handed out (the award didn't exist the first year the SAGs were held) have the winners matched up. It's the reason for the three scenarios above, and for Silver Linings to get a big bump not only will it need to win Best Actress for Jennifer Lawrence, but Robert De Niro better win as well. In fact, Supporting Actor could be a good category to keep an eye on as it's a wide open field down there with contenders from all three major Best Picture contenders looking to win.

Now for the results of your predictions, and I can't help but wonder how those Best Ensemble votes would have turned out had Argo won at the Producers Guild last weekend instead of last night. Either way, we're locked in and the show is beginning shortly. Have a look at the poll results and a second peek at my thoughts as to who will win in each of the five motion picture categories directly below.

You can find the full list of movie and television nominees right here, and I will be back shortly as we will be live-blogging the red carpet, starting sometime around 3 PM PST.

BEST ACTOR
MY PICK: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

Daniel Day-LewisThis is a lay-up, we all know how this one is going to turn out unless someone hacked the results.

Best Actor

  • Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) (681 Votes)
  • Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables) (68 Votes)
  • Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) (64 Votes)
  • John Hawkes (The Sessions) (10 Votes)
  • Denzel Washington (Flight) (6 Votes)

Total Voters: 829

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BEST ACTRESS
MY PICK: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)

Jennifer LawrenceI am still confidently predicting Jennifer Lawrence is going to beat Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) at the Oscars and that confidence comes from an expectation that Lawrence will also be taking home the SAG Award. The two actresses were both awarded at the Globes and the last time they went head-to-head, at the Critics' Choice Awards, Chastain came out on top. That said, I see the critics going one way and the actors going another. How about you?

Best Actress

  • Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) (450 Votes)
  • Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) (322 Votes)
  • Naomi Watts (The Impossible) (39 Votes)
  • Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone) (25 Votes)
  • Helen Mirren (Hitchcock) (9 Votes)

Total Voters: 845

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
MY PICK: Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)

Philip Seymour HoffmanProbably the hardest prediction on the board to make. I'm going wth Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), largely because the love for Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) doesn't really seem to be there and I don't think Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook) has enough juice just yet. Crstoph Waltz (Django Unchained) won the Golden Globe, but he isn't eligible here and Hoffman won the Critics' Choice Award, which I don't really think gives him too much of an edge, but the fact he's won something and Jones has so far won nothing (outside of the Las Vegas Critics Award), I have to go with Hoffman here.

Best Supporting Actor

  • Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook) (274 Votes)
  • Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) (231 Votes)
  • Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) (212 Votes)
  • Javier Bardem (Skyfall) (46 Votes)
  • Alan Arkin (Argo) (40 Votes)

Total Voters: 803

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
MY PICK: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

Anne HathawayOkay, every bit as much as Daniel Day-Lewis is a sure-thing, so is Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) and I'm sure we'll all be treated to some sort of "Oh my, I never expected it speech" as she preps for her Oscar crowning, but that's the price of admission folks.

Best Supporting Actress

  • Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) (658 Votes)
  • Sally Field (Lincoln) (63 Votes)
  • Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy) (19 Votes)
  • Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel) (19 Votes)
  • Helen Hunt (The Sessions) (15 Votes)

Total Voters: 774

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BEST ENSEMBLE
MY PICK: Silver Linings Playbook

Silver Linings PlaybookThe year Shakespeare in Love beat Saving Private Ryan at the Oscars for Best Picture, Shakespeare also won the SAG Award for Best Ensemble as well as Best Actress (Gwyneth Paltrow), which means at this point you have to either decide history is going to repeat itself or the times they are a changin'. My prediction is in.

Best Ensemble

  • Silver Linings Playbook (416 Votes)
  • Les Miserables (132 Votes)
  • Lincoln (125 Votes)
  • Argo (99 Votes)
  • The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (10 Votes)

Total Voters: 782

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And that does it, I will see you here tonight for the 2013 Screen Actors Guild Awards. The show begins at 6 p.m. (ET)/ 3 p.m. (PT) and can be seen on TNT. I will be blogging with my podcast partner in crime Laremy Legel, and we will be using a new format that should make following the action much, much easier. We can't wait!

If you're interested you can check out our previous SAG live blogs at the following links: 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | Live Blog Home.

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  • Chris

    After seeing all the Best Pic noms, I'm pulling for Silver Linings. Needs to win big tonight to have a shot. Saw Zero Dark today as well and now I think Lawrence has it. Zero Dark is too cold of a film for the voters.

  • Jack

    ENSEMBELE: Best Exotic hotel
    ACTOR: John Hawkes
    ACTRESS: Marion Cotillard
    SUPPORTING ACTOR: Javier Bardem
    SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Nicole Kidman

    Could you imagine how bananas things would get? LOL

    But in all seriousness:
    ENSEMBLE: Silver Linings Playbook
    ACTOR: Daniel Day Lewis
    ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence
    SUPPORTING ACTOR: Philip Seymour Hoffman
    SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway

    If Silver Linings goes home empty handed, what does that mean for its Oscars chances?

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

    Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
    Same prediction as before

    Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
    I've changed my vote in this category, because I think Silver Linings is very much an "actor's movie"

    Supporting Actor: Robert De Niro
    I changed my vote here, too for the same reason as with Lawrence. This is the most wide open field however, and everyone has a shot, including Alan Arkin with all the momentum for Argo

    Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
    Same as before

    Ensemble: Silver Linings Playbook
    I agree with Brad's second scenario, but even if Lincoln or Argo wins Ensemble, Harvey Weinstein still might be able to get Silver Linings the Best Picture win.

    However, if Argo wins ensemble and Affleck win the DGA, Argo will have a very good chance of winning. If Lincoln wins the DGA and Ensemble, then it as Argo will be pretty close, with the edge going to Lincoln, since it has a Best Director Oscar nomination.

  • John Doe Snow

    If Argo wins ensemble that would be weird...

  • Harold

    Does everyone really think that daniel day Lewis is that amazing -- to get an unprecedented third award???? He's nowhere as good as his last two wins. He's not that great in Lincoln.

    • Jack

      He deserves to get nominated definetely, though personally I think Joaquin Phoenix should be winning every awar there is.

    • Newbourne

      Completely agree with you. If it were up to me, I'd let Cooper have it.