Oscar Predictions

The 2013 Oscar Shuffle: Is Riva the One to Beat? De Niro for Supporting? Lee for Director?

Another look at the 2013 Oscars as some contenders are on the move

Robert De Niro / Ang Lee / Emmanuelle Riva
Photo: The Weinstein Co. / 20th Century Fox / Sony Pictures Classics

No matter how you slice it, this year's Oscar race could certainly have plenty of fireworks come February 24. Yes, the Argo win for Best Picture, should it come to pass, would be looked at by many as reactionary following the lack of a Best Director nomination for Ben Affleck. And, yes, should Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook win instead, the lack of forward thinking by the Academy would probably become the conversation. However, once you look beyond the Best Picture race there are some interesting races to take into consideration.

At this point we'll just all agree Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) and Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) will be taking home an Oscar. I respect anyone that disagrees and I'm sure a valid argument could be made as to why one of them may lose, but in a general sense let's just agree those two are going to win and move on.

We'll begin with Best Actress where, for the longest time, it's been thought to be a race between Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) and Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) with Lawrence getting the edge more recently following her win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. A shift in the winds has taken place, however, and it's becoming a growing storm as Jeff Wells pointed out this morning.

Over at Gold Derby many Oscar pundits are still predicting a Lawrence win, but the six that aren't all have Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) on their top line. Surprised? I have to admit, I am a little, but then again I'm up here in Seattle while a lot of these pundits have their ear to the ground in Los Angeles and New York. It's why I pay attention to their picks, but can I really move Riva to #1?

To date Riva's biggest victory came recently with a Best Actress win at the BAFTA Awards where both Lawrence and Chastain were nominated. Additionally, the Los Angeles Film Critics and National Society of Film Critics named her Best Actress. Otherwise, Lawrence and Chastain have been running the show.

The story took a personal turn recently when TheWrap (via Awards Daily) spoke with Riva about attending the Oscars when she said, "I am very calm in the face of all of this. I am 85 years old. I am not going to flop about like a fish. What makes me nervous is these hours on the plane. Frankly, it seems like a hell of a journey to me. It's so long. But I will do things to the end. I will fall in someone’s arms if I need to."

Will she make the plane flight for nothing?

Continuing the Amour thread line, I recently updated my Best Original Screenplay predictions, moving Quentin Tarantino's script for Django Unchained to #1 followed by Michael Haneke's script for Amour. Is it time to move Amour to #1 there as well? I'm beginning to think it may be.

And speaking of Haneke, why not Best Director? Is it so inconceivable? Amour is the clear front-runner for Best Foreign Language Film and with it nominated for Best Picture and strong chances at both Actress and Screenplay doesn't it stand a chance Haneke could move up the directorial ranks? After all, it's not like the Directors Guild winner is going to match this year, so why not offer up a winner that wasn't even nominated by the DGA?

Best Director, as it turns out, is one hell of a compelling category where I've had Steven Spielberg (Lincoln) on my top line for the longest time and now chatter is turning toward Ang Lee (Life of Pi). Could Lee snag a victory out of Spielberg's assuming hands? DreamWorks has been running a rather desperate campaign to get Lincoln as many awards as possible and yet Spielberg has not been able to win a single major award for the film. Certainly Lee seems just as likely a possibility as Haneke or even David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook), but given Pi's 11 nominations (second only to Lincoln) perhaps the love we all perceived the Academy felt for the film once the nominations were announced is about to become even more of a reality.

Finally, how about that Best Supporting Actor category? Following the BAFTAs, I moved Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained) to my top line, replacing Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), but as the Lincoln star continues to fall it seems Robert De Niro is on the rise for his work in Silver Linings Playbook.

As many of the commenters pointed out, Jones winning the SAG award is a bit of a big deal, but it was the first major award he won while the rest have gone to Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) and Waltz. Not to mention Waltz wasn't even nominated for a SAG Award as many blamed the lack of screeners as a result. So with that argument in mind, why would De Niro, who hasn't won a single major award yet this year, be the front-runner?

My only answer is to say the Weinstein Co. got a late start this year and they've been pushing Silver Linings like crazy including a screening and stump speech in Santa Monica as well as De Niro getting his star on the Walk of Fame.

What's fascinating about this category is there absolutely is no front-runner. Just look at the predictions over at Gold Derby. At first it looks like De Niro has the edge, the next batch favors Waltz and then Jones becomes the favorite after that. It's anyone's guess at this point and these are just a few of the categories that will either make or break your night when it comes to predictions.

Care to weigh in with your thoughts on the matter? Head on down to the comments below. And, yes, I have updated some predictions for the categories mentioned here. You can find all of my current predictions right here.

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  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

    I still think it's a two horse race between Chastain & Lawrence. The Academy will give Amour Best Foreign Language Film so I don't think they'll feel the need to give it another major award (such as Director or Screenplay). As of now, I have Chastain at No. 1 and I think it would be foolish to discount SAG.

    To me, the real question is whether or not Django will win Screenplay. Because I could easily see ZDT win. The QT fan in me wishes it was QT, but I tend to be pessimistic and go with the other choice.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

      Since everyone seems to be posting their predictions:

      Best Picture: Argo
      Best Director: Steven Spielberg
      Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
      Best Actress: Jessica Chastain
      Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
      Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
      Best Original Screenplay: Zero Dark Thirty
      Best Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln
      Best Documentary: The Gatekeepers
      Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
      Best Animated Film: Brave
      Best Cinematography: Skyfall
      Best Editing: Argo
      Best Original Score: John Williams
      Best Original Song: Skyfall
      Best Sound Mixing: Life of Pi
      Best Sound Editing: Life of Pi
      Best Production Design: Anna Karenina
      Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
      Best Costumes: Anna Karenina
      Best Makeup: The Hobbit

      • Newbourne

        In the past 20 years, only 4 times has the Best Original Screenplay award been given to a film that wasn't nominated for Best Director (The Usual Suspects, Almost Famous, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind & Little Miss Sunshine).

        That means that Zero Dark Thirty has a really uphill battle if it wants to take it, especially considering that only 4 people have won it twice, and most of their movies were completely different. Zero Dark Thirty is just way too similar to The Hurt Locker for Boal to take it again.

        It's either Tarantino or Haneke, and I'm leaning Haneke.

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

          I just feel like they're going to give ZDT something, so if its not Best Actress, it'll be screenplay. This seems to be the year of trend-setting.

          • http://www.myfilmreview.nl Reindeer

            I think a statement like "The Academy will give Amour Best Foreign Language Film so I don't think they'll feel the need to give it another major award (such as Director or Screenplay)" is kind of a risk, for two reasons.

            First of all because watching a DVD screener for Foreign Language Film is not allowed if you want to vote, you have to attend a screening for all 5 films. Many voters will not do so, therefore calling it "The Academy" should be read as "a very small part of The Academy" considering this particular award.

            Second, because of the reason above, I think it is not 100% sure they will go with Amour (even though I do agree with you they probably will). People who want to vote for Amour in Foreign Language Film need to see the other 4 films, which they may not do. I think people loving another Foreign Language Film will see the 4 other films sooner, because only then they can vote for their film with only 1 nomination (in Foreign Language Film).

            • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

              Valid point.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/chewbaca38/ Baca

    This is so confusing. I am going to lose money. Damnit.

  • Jack

    PICTURE: Argo
    DIRECTOR: Michael Haneke, yes, I'm going there. ALT: David O. Russell
    ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis
    ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence. ALT: Emmanuelle Riva
    SUPPORTING ACTOR: Robert DeNiro
    SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway
    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Amour
    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Whatever wins WGA, Silver Linings Playbook or Argo for now

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

    I can only see Amour winning Best Foreign Language film and possibly screenplay. I still think the SAG for Jones puts him slightly over Waltz, only because Waltz won in 2010. I think Lawrence is almost a lock for Best Actress, and Chastain being the possible upset. Ang Lee doesn't have enough momentum for an Oscar, as he has won zilch.

    Best Picture
    1. Argo
    2. Lincoln
    3. Silver Linings Playbook
    4. Life of Pi
    5. Les Miserables
    6. Amour
    7. Beasts of the Southern Wild
    8. Zero Dark Thirty
    9. Django Unchained

    Best Director
    1. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
    2. David O. Russel, Silver Linings Playbook
    3. Ang Lee, Life of Pi
    4. Michael Haneke, Amour
    5. Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

    Best Actor
    Daniel Day-Lewis = Lock

    Best Actress
    1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
    2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
    3. Emmanuele Riva, Amour
    4. Quvenzhaine Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
    5. Naomi Watts, The Impossible

    Best Supporting Actor
    1. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
    2. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
    3. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
    4. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
    5. Alan Arkin, Argo

    Best Supporting Actress
    Anne Hathaway = Lock

    Best Original Screenplay
    1. Django Unchained
    2. Zero Dark Thirty
    3. Amour
    4. Moonrise Kingdom
    5. Flight

    Best Adapted Screenplay - (This will be decided by the WGA)
    1. Argo
    2. Lincoln
    3. Silver Linings Playbook
    4. Life of Pi
    5. Beasts of the Southern Wild

    Best Film Editing
    1. Argo
    2. Life of Pi
    3. Silver Linings Playbook
    4. Lincoln
    5. Zero Dark Thirty

    Best Cinematography - this one is a bit shaky
    1. Life of Pi
    2. Skyfall
    3. Anna Karenina
    4. Lincoln
    5. Django Unchained

    Best Animated Film
    1. Wreck-It Ralph
    2. Brave
    3. Frankenweenie
    4. ParaNorman
    5. The Pirates! Band of Misfits

    Best Foreign Language FIlm
    Amour - Lock

    Best Documentary
    1. Searching for Sugar Man
    2. The Invisible War
    3. The Gatekeepers
    4. How to Survive A Plague
    5. 5 Broken Cameras

    Best Production Design
    1. Life of Pi
    2. Anna Karenina
    3. Les Miserables
    4. Lincoln
    5. The Hobbit

    Best Original Score
    1. Life of Pi
    2. Lincoln
    3. Anna Karenina
    4. Argo
    5. Skyfall

    Best Original Song
    1. "Skyfall" from Skyfall
    2. "Suddenly" from Les Miserables
    3. "Pi's Lullaby" from Life of Pi
    4. "Before My Time" from Chasing Ice
    5. "Everybody Needs a Best Friend" fro Ted

    Best Costume Design
    1. Les Miserables
    2. Anna Karenina
    3. Lincoln
    4. Mirror Mirror
    5. Snow White and the Huntsman

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling
    1. Les Miserables
    2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
    3. Hitchcock

    Best Sound Mixing
    1. Argo
    2. Skyfall
    3. Life of Pi
    4. Les Miserables
    5. Lincoln

    Best Sound Editing
    1. Argo
    2. Skyfall
    3. Life of Pi
    4. Zero Dark Thirty
    5. Django Unchained

    Best Visual Effects
    1. Life of Pi
    2. The Hobbit: An unexpected Journey
    3. The Avengers
    4. Prometheus
    5. Snow White And the Huntsman
    (If you read all this, I'm proud of you)

    • http://timeforafilm.com Alex Thomas

      Yeah, so I agree with you on basically all the categories!!!

      Still almost undecided on Animation though.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

      Several of the nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay were not eligible for the WGA, so the winners won't necessarily be determined by the WGA (although, if Lincoln isn't a lock, nothing is).

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

        Well, it seems to be a two horse race between Lincoln and Argo and I believe that the WGA will decide that.

    • Mykael

      Brother, your predictions for Editing category is bothering.
      Zero Dark Thirty should be at least at no2/no3 position.
      Zero Dark Thirty is certainly a better edited film than the 4 other contenders.
      Last 30 minutes' editing should itself indicate its legitimacy.
      As you know, 4 time nominee Goldenberg(Heat, Seabiscuit, Insider) who edited Argo, is co-editor in Zero Dark Thirty, joined by Tichenor(There will be blood, Magnolia, Brokeback Mountain) who have altogether won(ICFS, BFCA, CFCA, LVFCA, LAFCA, BFCA, BOFCA) 7 editing wins. BAFTA's eiditng win for Argo is the only major win, with crtics group wins from PFCA, SFFCC, SDFC.
      Its Zero Dark Thirty vs Argo in all likelyhood.
      WIth Argo's momentum, you can place it on top but the 2nd place must be Zero Dark Thirty. And it has viable chance at winning this category , with the trancending nature seen last year in rewarding the deserved Girl With The Dragon tattoo, the best editing without the best picture nomination.
      Silver Linings Playbook's editing nomination should be only seen as best picture/ best director additional boosters similar to The Descendants in 2012 and The Fighter in 2011, showing the inscrutable adoration of the above movies in the most important technical category by the AMPAS. Don't take the egregious IPA Golden Satellite's editing win for Silver Linings Playbook for consideration. It's least likely to sweep.
      Seeing the oscar history, the 3rd favorite should be beloved Michael Kahn who is the most-nominated editor in Academy Awards history with eight nominations with 3 wins. If Lincoln sweeps, he is in for a big spoiler.
      Placing mediocre editing of Silver Linings Playbook above the accomplished work Zero Dark Thirty and auteur Mr.Kahn is displeasing and incomprehensible.
      With all due respect, brother, little respect towards already tarnished image of Zero Dark Thirty would be appreciated.
      My sincere apologies, if my comment in anyway was offensive/ has made you uncomfortable.
      Sorry.

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

        Don't get me wrong, I loved Zero Dark Thirty and it was my favorite of 2012. I thought the Editing was superb.
        It seems Argo is a lock in this category and Life of Pi is the one to look out for, in my opinion, because it could very well sweep the technical categories.
        I would be delighted if Zero Dark Thirty won Best Editing, but I just don't see it happening.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/navaneethks/ navaneethks

    I hope it's Ang Lee for Director, Lawrence or Riva for actress, Waltz for supporting actor and QT for original screenplay.

    Although I am very glad we are past the days when one movie took home almost all the awards that it was nominated for like LOTR 3, Titanic etc., this shows there is some real competition and lot of talent out there.

    • http://www.criterion.com/my_criterion/27913-criterion10 Criterion10

      Agreed. I hate sweeps (i.e. Titanic, LOTR 3). I mean, the night just becomes so boring. And most of the time, even if I could say that the given film was my favorite of the year, it doesn't deserve all of the awards that the Academy awards it.

  • http://www.criterion.com/my_criterion/27913-criterion10 Criterion10

    Hmm, so maybe my early talk of a Riva win could be somewhat foretelling after all. =)

    I'm obviously keeping my fingers double and triple crossed that Amour heads home with some big awards on Oscar night (i.e. Actress, Director, and Picture). And I've actually started to convince myself that it is still possible after all.

    The truth of the matter is that when predicting the Oscars, the best thing to do is not to go with instinct, but rather with the facts as they have been presented all awards season. But, in the case of this year, considering the fact that they Oscars have already nominated a somewhat unlikely group of films, I'm starting to think that the awards ceremony could truly be full of surprises, with the Oscars ignoring entirely the past awards of the season and simply giving out a handful of surprises.

    Amour is a film to keep an eye on. Life of Pi too. Lincoln is out as far as I'm concerned, same with Zero Dark Thirty (sadly) and the two front runners are Argo and Silver Linings Playbook. But, I'm still not so convinced that either of those two films will win. Part of me just doesn't feel right about predicting either of those films to win.

    The screenplay category is an odd one. Maybe they will feel the need to award Tarantino over Boal, since Boal beat out Tarantino for The Hurt Locker. But, if Amour shows strong, then it wouldn't surprise me for Haneke to win an award.

    The Oscars really couldn't come any sooner. It will be one of the most interesting and exciting Academy Awards in years.

    BTW, if Amour does pull of some massive and unexpected sweep, I encourage everyone to check out the fake Michael Haneke twitter account, which I'm sure will be full of tweets bashing the other nominees (most definitely Ben Affleck).

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

      "It will be one of the most interesting and exciting Academy Awards in years." - Normally, I'd agree. But the inevitable Argo win sours the whole affair.

      • http://www.criterion.com/my_criterion/27913-criterion10 Criterion10

        Well, I wouldn't say Argo's win is an inevitable as you may think. And even so, while it is the most important category of the night, there are still many other categories that are highly open ended and unpredictable, as evidenced by this article.

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

          I'm most interested to see what happens with Best Cinematography. Do they all get together and decide that it's finally Deakins time? Or will they go with Pi?

          • http://www.criterion.com/my_criterion/27913-criterion10 Criterion10

            Yeah, should be interesting. I'm actually ashamed to admit that I still haven't seen Life of Pi. I'll probably be rooting for either Django or Skyfall in that category.

            • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/HarryFuertes/ Harry Fuertes

              Life of Pi had gorgeous visuals. I almost loved that movie. It was really great but if there is something everyone agrees on, it is the visuals. However, I don't mind who wins if it's either Skyfall, Life of Pi, or Django.

  • http://timeforafilm.com Alex Thomas

    I think many are perhaps to reactionary to some of the precursor awards. That being said, Lawrence is certainly in danger to Riva but I think she still has it wrapped up. Argo and Spielberg should almost certainly win too.

    It's that Supporting Actor category which is just insane. I don't see Deniro with much of a chance (15%) but it's TLJ (45%) and Waltz (40%) which I can barely split!

  • http://cinemaconfessions.com Gautam

    I feel Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor are actually connected. I will explain why.
    If Riva wins Best Actress, De Niro is going to nab Best Supporting Actor and vice versa. And this is due the fact that with 4 Acting nominations, Silver Linings in not going to go empty handed. Voters ticking Riva on the ballot list might be tempted to reward Silver Linings in some other acting category and the only one that falls in line is Best Supporting Actor. So, here is some Oscar watching tips, if you see Best Supporting Actor going to anyone other than De Niro, Lawrence gets Best Actress but if De Niro manages to win Supporting, don't be surprised to see Riva walking away with Actress trophy.

    Brad and everyone, what do you think of my theory ? Anyone agrees ?

    • http://www.criterion.com/my_criterion/27913-criterion10 Criterion10

      That's actually a very good theory that I feel could occur.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      I completely agree with this theory. From all of the things I have heard and read, the academy tends to resist the "sweeps" In recent years. And they also seem to like to spread the love.
      One thing to add to the equation is the Harvey factor, which seems to have proven itself to be very real.
      But Lawrence my very well benefit from amour basically a lock for foreign film. I think she has enough momentum to keep her at the top with the best odds. But I will not be shocked if riva does win. Just disappointed.

    • Matt

      This makes sense, can't see Silver Linings go without an acting win when it's in all 4 categories.

    • http://cinemaconfessions.com Gautam Anand

      Embrace yourself for Silver Linings shock. Whatever few filled ballots [obviously without revealing any information about the member] I have seen online Silver Linings Playbook is scoring hugely in all of them. I won't be surprised if it ends up the night with 3 or 4 wins. Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and even Director are all within realms of possibility,

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Manu/ Manu

      Also agree with your theory. This is one of the most exciting and unpredictable races of the past few years so I'm interested in seeing how it plays out. Another commentator mentioned two French actor winning in recent years (so that is something that Lawrence and Chastain "can look forward to" in their favor)

      Since Dujardin is a presenter, presumably for Best Actress, a French actor awarding another French actor in Hollywood?!

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/DavidG/ David Gaillardetz

    Best Picture
    1. Argo
    2. Lincoln
    3. Silver Linings Playbook

    Best Director
    1. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
    2. David O. Russel, Silver Linings Playbook
    3. Ang Lee, Life of Pi
    4. Michael Haneke, Amour
    5. Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

    Best Actor
    Daniel Day-Lewis

    Best Actress
    1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
    2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
    3. Emmanuele Riva, Amour

    Best Supporting Actor
    1. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
    2. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
    3. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

    Best Supporting Actress
    Anne Hathaway

    Best Original Screenplay
    1. Django Unchained
    2. Zero Dark Thirty
    3. Amour

    Best Adapted Screenplay -
    1. Lincoln
    2. Argo

    Best Film Editing
    1. Argo
    2. Lincoln
    3. Zero Dark Thirty

    Best Cinematography -
    1. Life of Pi
    2. Skyfall
    3. Lincoln

    Best Animated Film
    1. Wreck-It Ralph
    2. Brave
    3. Frankenweenie

    Best Foreign Language FIlm
    Amour

    Best Documentary
    1. Searching for Sugar Man
    2. The Gatekeepers
    3. How to Survive A Plague

    Best Production Design -hard to predict-
    1. Anna Karenina
    2. Life of Pi
    3. Les Miserables
    4. Lincoln
    5. The Hobbit

    Best Original Score
    1. Life of Pi
    2. Lincoln

    Best Original Song
    1. "Skyfall" from Skyfall

    Best Costume Design
    1. Anna Karenina
    2. Les Miserables
    3. Lincoln
    4. Mirror Mirror
    5. Snow White and the Huntsman

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling
    1. Les Miserables
    2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
    3. Hitchcock

    Best Sound Mixing
    1. Les Miserables
    2. Argo
    3. Skyfall
    4. Life of Pi
    5. Lincoln

    Best Sound Editing
    1. Zero Dark Thirty
    2. Argo
    3. Skyfall

    Best Visual Effects
    1. Life of Pi

    Thanks to those of you who actually looked through all of that, haha

  • Dale

    I agree that Day-Lewis and Hathaway are locks, though I have always thought Hathaway's performance consisted of little more than looking emaciated and sobbing through "I Dreamed a Dream" before disappearing for the rest of the movie, while Helen Hunt's front-and-center performance in "The Sessions" was far more demanding and the one deserving the Oscar. Concerning Riva, the Academy might feel two Oscars to French actors during the past few years (Jean Dujardin last year and Marion Cotillard in 2007) might be enough for awhile and believe Jennifer Lawrence will take the best actress prize. Finally, I think Christoph Waltz will be awarded the supporting actor statuette, partly because his was the best performance and partly because of the BAFTA win. I don't think the fact that he won his first Oscar so recently (2009) should hurt his chances - look at Sean Penn's win in 2003 and 2009, and there have been instances of the same actor winning Oscars two years in a row (i.e., Tom Hanks, Spencer Tracy, Jason Robards, and Katharine Hepburn).

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Jennifer/ Jennifer

    I'm still hoping Best Actress will go to Jessica Chastain.

    I loved Silver Linings and Lawrence in that role, but Chastain's character has stayed with me (much like her character in The Help stayed with me for a while).

    I think Chastain was able to do so much with a role that's really quiet, which I believe to be a challenging thing to do. There was also just one instance during Silver Linings that I didn't believe Lawrence, and for some reason it still irks me (though I loved the movie and Lawrence in it).

    • NY

      What scene was it in SLP?

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      Yes, I too am curious which scene you are referring to that "irks" you!

  • Thornsy

    Hm, I think the momentum has been shifting toward David O. Russell for Director lately. Lee is in a solid second place lately. Poor Spielberg, he's been pretty much a non-factor this year.

  • http://www.criterion.com/my_criterion/27913-criterion10 Criterion10

    Hope it's okay if I post this here since it is relevant to the conversation. Found this online today: David O. Russell's reaction to Emanuelle Riva winning at the BAFTAs over Jennifer Lawrence. Pretty rude, to be honest.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=we6LEHiejFs&list=FLeYX_8VjyZIsTOQk1xhideQ&index=1

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      Yes, I watched this several times. It does seem he is really surprised that jen didn't win.
      Truth is-and I've learned this the hard way-we never really know what a person is thinking or feeling. Thus the saying "when you assume, you make an ass out of you and me"!!!
      I had picked riva to win the bafta all along even though I like Lawrence. But I am hoping for Jennifer to win the Oscar. And I won't be shocked if riva pulls it off. At least this category has some intrigue.

    • Jake17

      Russell doesn't exactly have a great reputation anyways.

  • Arielle

    Well, lets not forget Jessica Chastain did her final performance of her Broadway show, and left immediately after to catch a helicopter, plane and get dressed and barely make it time for the red carpet of the BAFTAs. Not only that, her performance is just so Academy esque and was so powerful and fearless and transformed from the geeky quirky vegan to the robotic and merciless servant of our nation.

    Don't knock her out just yet!

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      I agree it is extremely impressive that she has managed her show AND run all over everywhere to participate in the award season hoopla. That may be just what will help her chances. It is such a moody game

  • William

    Please no to Riva, that's what I was afraid of when the nominations were announced.

    Either Lawrence or Chastain for me, I liked both very much. At least Lawrence has Weinstein on her side; it's always a bit more enjoyable when I'm routing for the Weinstein buy out. Just please, no boring Riva win.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      I just wonder if the Weinstein card holds as much value as it has in years past. If perhaps the academy is tired of honoring his protégés? I am certain he will get a win out of them somewhere in this years oscars.. Thoughts?

      • William

        I think he still does; there were awards the past few years where the winner outright thanks Harvey with a wink and a remark about them winning. Wasn't anything "The King's Speech" Harvey? Or Meryl Streep last year? I believe she thanked him and made the joke of calling him "God".

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Matt/ Matt

    I won't post my full predictions (mostly because I haven't thought much about the categories outside the big 8). But I will say that I still see Best Actress going to Lawrence (especially with the Weinsteins behind her), and Amour taking home original screenplay and, obviously, Best Foreign Film. As for supporting actor, a part of me could see De Niro taking it home but my gut is telling me it'll go to Waltz. It's a tough category to predict regardless. And I truly have no idea about director, it could go to anyone. Definitely a crazy year for the Academy, but that makes watching it more exciting.

  • JN Films

    Best Picture: Lincoln (Surprise)
    Best Director: Steven Spielberg
    Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
    Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
    Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
    Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
    Best Original Screenplay: Django Unchained
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln
    Best Documentary: Searching for Sugarman
    Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
    Best Animated Film: Wreck-It Ralph

  • art

    Best Actress is a great race, I hope Lawrence still takes it. She gave one of my favorite performances of the year in one of my favorite films of the year. The only comfort that I have is that Lawrence is still besting Riva in terms of important award wins. Lawrence got the Globe and the SAG, while Riva only has the BAFTA, which is a ceremony that is usually biased towards Europeans. Also Riva did not even get a Globe nomination, which was easier to make due to the category split.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      I read a prior post where the bafta almost always predicts the Oscar award. But isn't also the case that the sag winner ends up with the golden statue? I'm not clear on which is a stronger predictor.
      I concur with the bias if the baftas toward Europeans, which is why I picked riva to win that golden mask. And riva has some momentum going into these last days of Oscar voting. Here is a visual:

      http://www.goldderby.com/stats/experts/oscars-2012/best-actress.html

      It makes me anxious because I have been in the Lawrence corner all along. I can say that with an informed place as I have seen all of these performances.

      • Art

        Thanks for the link lalecture, I already do keep up with Goldderby. I had noticed that Riva did gain some momentum surpassing Chastain, but am glad Lawrence kept her #1 spot. I gotta admit I was surprised as Chastain got Critics Choice and the Globe, and the latter a race Riva didn't even make the nominees. I like you am in Lawrence's corner, hope that she bests Riva and Chastain.

  • john matrix

    I really don't get all the love for Lincoln, and especially Spielberg. What is so great about his direction in Lincoln? Practically the entire movie is talking heads, often in darkly lit enclosed spaces. DDL giving a great performance is a given, and nothing to do with Spielberg. Ditto, Tommy Lee Jones.

    For me, Lincoln was an incredibly dry, by-the-numbers, oscar-begging 'epic'. It's overly reverent and earnest tone was off-putting, and Spielberg's 'direction' almost killed it in the final few minutes with the unnecessary final scenes.

    Seriously, I'd be really grateful is someone could outline exactly why Spielberg deserves an oscar for directing Lincoln. What is so great about his work?

    It will be such an anti-climax if a film as unremarkable as Lincoln wins any major oscars.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      Agreed! A heart warming reflection on an incredibly powerful time in our countries history,yes. And ddl is an obvious lock for best actor.
      But the film is dry and slow. I'd never watch it again and I don't see what is so special about the direction either.
      Jones performance is also unremarkable. Especially compared to walz.

  • Chris

    I met some old college pals last weekend. They work in the industry and have either spoken to or heard of many Oscar voters - especially the older ones - changing their ballots in favor for Emmanuelle Riva.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      Im not surprised but Say it's not so! Question is, whether those changes put her on the stage with the award. ANOTHER French winner in the past few years? I have a hard time swallowing that. Maybe it's because I am in the Lawrence corner.

  • GARY JAMES

    best supporting actor will be robert de niro as the thought that day lewis will stand all on his own with 3 oscars will be just too much for many and they'll want de niro to get his 3rd as well.
    All very political but that wouldnt b ethe firast time would it. I suggest you put some money on him at nice odds because he's going to get it.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

    http://www.goldderby.com/stats/experts/oscars-2012/best-supp.-actor.html

    I'm with you. I think deniro has momentum and a VERY good chance of winning. Jones performance is mediocre in light of walz and deniro.

  • MagicMikeToo

    Me thinks Riva and De Niro are both on upward trajectories to victory. There's so much backstory for both. She has never been to LA before, her birthday is the day of the awards, will be oldest Best Actress winner ever. He ... oh come on, who doesn't want him to be up on stage clinching his Oscar and saying to him: "YOU TALKING TO ME?!?"

  • Kiwi

    Lee winning best director would make me very happy. Pi is by far the most difficult material (so called "unfilmable") to make it into a movie. And what did he do? He made a beautiful, flawless film that is also thought provoking and entertaining ("but Columbus was looking for India!") such achievement deserves the award.

  • Dave

    I think it is time to remember that there is no RIGHT or WRONG. Everyone is entitled to his or her view on who is best.

    Nevertheless, as a bona fide voter, let me assure you that I had just moments ago voted for Riva. Her performance deserves nothing less than the Oscar. The fact that she is not campaigning simply adds to her charm and passion for her craft. Something that cannot be said of the other candidates who are falling over one another to be seen at this movie premiere, or dinner party or TV show - it just smacks of DESPERATION. Really uncool.

  • Ari

    Or it's because she's older and can't move around as well. And those campaigning have major studios backing them, hence they want publicity. But to each their own.

    This, however, goes to show you how seriously some take their craft. Hope the Academy doesn't forget that:

    http://new.livestream.com/nytimes/jessicachastain

  • dodrade

    I'd take the De Niro "push" with a large pinch of salt. Remember last year when Viola Davis was supposed to have the "big mo" over Meryl Streep going into the ceremony?

    • GARY JAMES

      Viola Who ?? This is robert de niro we're talking about,he's an american icon and doesnt bear any comparison with viola davis

  • Yaz

    Ah the Oscars... It's funny, now that I've seen most of the films, I have so many mixed feelings on who I think will win, as opposed to who I think should win.

    Despite the directing snub, I do feel Argo will take Best Picture. The Academy f'd up, but to deny it this honour when it's receiving praise everywhere else would be silly.

    Spielberg will likely take Best Director - but it should go to Lee.

    DDL will take actor, but I feel Jackman should get it.

    Lawrence will take actress, but Watts is ever so overlooked.

    Hathway will take supporting actress - and that's fine.

    Watts should take supporting actor... But this category is a toss up. I can definitely see Jones squeezing in. Despite the De Niro push, I don't see it happening for him. Smoke and mirrors here.

    Oh yeah, and QT should get screenplay. ZDT could pick up technical awards for sound and or editing I feel.

    It should be an interesting race! Can't wait to be wrong on so many counts!

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

    The whole "want" vs "should" win is sometimes such an emotional conversation. This year is filled with such parody. I have made some predictions(bets actually) that are based on my calculated outcome. And others I have made on my hopes. It's like I won't bet against my favorite because it would be bad juju!