UPDATED: 'Shutter Island' Holds On To #1 with Early Friday Box-Office Numbers
Tight race for number two
Box-Office Mojo has updated the Friday box-office estimates and it looks like Martin Scorsese's Shutter Island (read my review here) holds a larger lead than previously estimated $6.6 million on Friday. But this slightly lower number than previously reported makes me think it won't crack $20 million for the weekend. Looking at the film's performance in its opening frame it is more likely to end around $19 million. However, my once thought competition at the top looks to be dashed as Cop Out's numbers are much lower than previously thought.
Last night Nikki Finke's early estimates had Cop Out (read my review here) securing $6.2 million on Friday but it is now down to $5.975 million for Friday. This is likely to translate to about $16-17 million for the weekend, much lower than the $23 million predicted by RopeofSilicon Box-Office Oracle Laremy Legel. I still wouldn't be surprised if Smith's dedicated fanbase helps it to slighlty larger nuimbers over the weekend, but I'm not holding my breath.
Interesting enough, the weekend's other wide opener was Overture's The Crazies (read my review here), an excellent action-horror feature that so far has earned a 71% from critics at RottenTomatoes and managed an estimated $5.970 million on Friday. I now wonder if it's possible for this film to leap frog Cop Out and take second. However, my assumption is we are looking at something like a $15 million weekend.
The updated numbers are listed directly below and Laremy will be here on Sunday with a complete wrap-up. You can read his Box-Office predictions for this week right here and browse the RopeofSilicon box-office charts here.
- Shutter Island – $6.6 million
- Cop Out – $5.975 million
- The Crazies – $5.970 million
- Avatar – $3.1 million
- Valentine's Day – $2.9 million
- Percy Jackson – $2.4 million
- Dear John – $1.5 million
- The Wolfman – $1.1 million
- Tooth Fairy – $730,000
- Crazy Heart – $610,000
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Good for SI and Crazies, don't care much about Cop Out
You think Laremy still has a chance of being right about Cop Out for the weekend?
I suspect not. Nikki is nearly never wrong about how Friday numbers translate into Weekend numbers. Of course, this could be the exception, but she has it down to a science
The Crazies did better per theater, but didn't have enough of them.
I enjoyed the hell out of the Crazies, I hope it does well. Cop Out was awful.
Ha, ha, ha. Nikki Finke is ALWAYS wrong about her numbers. Although she often goes back and edits her material to make it look like she was correct.
She is a good self promoter, however. Which is the only thing that matters these days.
Always wrong compared to whom? No one else has reasonably accurate numbers at 3am on Friday night.
And the edits are absolutely not to make it look like she was correct: everyone knows that she edits them everytime she gets new, updated information, which usually occurs 3-4 times over a weekend. What do you want? For her to also post the previous 4 estimates, just for kicks and giggles?
But yes, she is a good self-promoter. Nikki's ma girl.
Nickki's weekend extrapolations are often wrong based on her initial friday estimate, but a quick estimate is what we want. To see if our predictions are in the ballpark. I have the feeling she is reporting those extrapolations from her sources instead of working them up herself.
exactly – without a comparison, what is "wrong". technically Laremy's bo wrap-up is wrong every week because Sunday hasn't occured yet, and the estimation is only good to 0.1 million or so. Accurate is relative, and at 3am on Friday night, Nikki's the most accurate gal around.
Even on an absolute scale, she's not bad: her Friday early morning predictions were off by <2 mil for Crazies, <1 mil for Shutter, and exactly correct for Cop Out
Man, Crazy Heart just keeps hanging in there. Good to see.
Alice in Wonderland will take 1st place at $73. The week after that, either Alice in Wonderland, Green Zone, or She's Out of My League will take #1.
I doubt Alice in Wonderland will go THAT far on open weekend. 300's $72.1 million open weekend was dependent on fanboys. Wonderland would have to be female driven to overtake 300.
Fast and Furious' $72.9 million open weekend was dependent on Latin Americans. Wonderland will have trouble getting that Spring record held by Fast & Furious.
I'd say Alice would be lucky to go past $60.
Lets not forget that Alice is the first 3D movie since Avatar, and that Alice's quite good trailers were attached to Avatar. I think Alice should get atleast 70 million$ Plus, its Disney and its Alice frickin Wonderland. It should get atleast 70 million$, and could approach 80 depending on theater count etc.
Given that Wonderland is showing on an estimated 3,400 screens, it's open weekend will likely to be no bigger than $60 million. It would need 4,000+ screens to have a chance of $73 million+.
Crazies really deserves to beat the god awful Cop Out. I'm a fan of Smith's, but Jesus, is that flick bad. And wasn't the screenplay on the black list?
Of course in general blacklists are bad, but when talking about scripts, isn't the blacklist the list of good scripts that weren't made into films?
I agree, they keep talking about this blacklist of great screenplays but yet i still haven't seen one come out there that are any good. Such as the "cop comedy" with Ashton and jamie Fox, another crap movie from the blacklist.. Hollywrd has no clue to movies