'Shrek 4' Dominates Friday Box-Office While 'MacGruber' Bombs
Universal is in desperate need of a hit
Nikki Finke at Deadline has some very early Friday box-office numbers that don't look too favorable for yet another Universal release following Robin Hood last weekend, which fell behind Iron Man 2 in its opening frame and will do so again this weekend. But first to the top…
Dreamworks has another animated hit (as expected) with Shrek Forever After, the fourth and what I understand to be final, film in the Shrek storyline although there is the Puss in Boots movie due November 4, 2011. As for Shrek Forever After's numbers, it's looking at $20.8 million for Friday and Finke has it pegged for an estimated $70 million for the weekend, which may prove a low estimate if the families come out in full force. As stated elsewhere, ticket prices are reaching as high as $20 per ticket for Shrek in 3D and the weekend box-office will certainly reflect that bump.
The other new wide release this week is Universal/Rogue's "Saturday Night Live" spin-off MacGruber, which started off well on RottenTomatoes but has been slowly hammered down to a 57% rating. So critics warn folks away and audiences are either listening or weren't interested in the first place as it has managed an estimated $1.6 million on Friday, which will cause it to struggle to reach a mere $4.5 million for the weekend. Ouch!
Personally I though MacGruber looked pretty good based on the one trailer I saw and this is despite the fact I think the "SNL" skit is awful. I still plan on seeing it once I get home from Cannes, but I guess my expectations have now been lowered.
One thing is for certain, Universal is having a hard time as of late. Of course, they will say MacGruber is a Rogue Pictures release, but in my mind that still falls under the Universal banner. So far this year, Universal related titles such as Green Zone, Repo Men, The Wolfman and Robin Hood have severely underperformed. Not much of a surprise to me considering the "C+" I gave Repo Men was the highest grade I awarded to any of those four films. However, I've seen the upcoming Russell Brand comedy, Get Him to the Greek and it's solid. Also, the animated Despicable Me looks good as well, so hopefully the tide will turn for the U.
I have included Finke's early estimates below and will update as time permits. Right now I am off to my final screening of the Cannes Film Festival and then hopefully a little time off for rest and relaxation.
- Shrek Forever After – $20.8 million
- Iron Man 2 – $7.5 million
- Robin Hood – $5.6 million
- Letters To Juliet – $3 million
- MacGruber – $1.6 million
- Just Wright – $1.3 million
- Date Night – $925,000
- A Nightmare on Elm Street – $765,000
- How to Train Your Dragon – $438,000
- Kites – $341,000
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Well if Shrek4 follows the path of Shrek1 it will reach $73.17 million. If it follows Shrek2 it will reach $76.25 million. If it follwos Shrek3 it will reach $63.29 million. Assuming the $20 million estimate is on the nose.
Macgruber's downfall was probably it's R rating, which kept out most teens; it's release date, which turned out to be a bad date for the college students who were espressing an interest; and it's budget of $10 million, which probably made some wonder why they should pay the same for a cheapo pick that MIGHT be funny when many big budget films were coming up for the same price of admission.
Letters To Juliet seems to actually be tracking a little worse than The Backup Plan for my own weekend estimate of about $8.8 million but we'll see.
Shrek 4's 20M Friday doesn't come as much of a surprise. The franchise wore out its welcome after the third. Not a lot of people were begging for a fourth.
I have said all along that MacGruber will bomb since they announced the film to be made I just didnt know how bad. At this rate it will struggle to make $10 million. I dont know how some people thought it would do around $20 million. Hopefully this will stop any future SNL movies to be made. I used to Love SNL Until about 9 or 10 years ago when it just got dreadful and I stopped watching entirely. Every time I gave it a chance after that I found that I would get kinda angry because it was just so damn terrible and unfunny. I suspect the terrible cast to be the reason. SO yeah, hopefully no more SNL movies.
Shrek did about what i expected. I still think it could do around $75 million which would be pretty close to my $77 million prediction. Hopefully this will be the last Shrek movie if only because I dont think its appropriate that Eddie Murphy and Mike Myers (who have dominated the Razzie Awards in recent years) get whats probably around $10 million each for whats probably not even a weeks worth.
Next Week will be interesting as we should have possibly 2 films to open to over $50 million.
We all thought it was the end for Saturday Night Live films when It's Pat came out and bombed, but they kept coming up with other films.
It's been a pretty poor start to the summer films this year. Iron Man and Robin Hood both doing in their lower end of their estimates and Shrek appears to be following the same path. It will be interesting to see if any movie actually passes Alice in Wonderland.
I disagree with you. I think NO one expected Robin Hood to do very well at the Box Office. I actually think its Opening Weekend of 37 mil was pretty good for the reviews it was getting in true honesty. Its not a total bomb, I mean it is doing great overseas.
As is Iron Man 2. Sure people had high hopes for it. But in no way is it a bomb. I mean the first weekend in MAY is a hard weekend. People still in school. I still say that when school lets out in June, sure there will be other movies, but kids will still get around to see this. I have NO doubt that it will surpass Alice in Wonderland. I think its Final cume to be around 350 mil.
Shrek is in no mind a bomb. I think a 20 mil opening day is better than I expected. I thought the third one would hurt this one…it did and it didnt. I mean kids were still in school on Friday, so it will have a HUGE bump on Saturday probably around 30 mil or so since kids our out of school. Every kid who saw any Shrek will be rushing back to see this one. And even though Prince of Persia is coming out next weekend I don't necessarily call that a kids film… its more directed to PIRATES OF THE CARRIBEAN audience. I think this one will hold pretty well till TOY STORY 3. If HTTYD made 200 mil, this one will in doubt make more. GO SHREK!
I also think that your wrong when you say the summer is a pretty poor start. May is always a hard month. I think we still have many huge hits to come at us. I think everyone is also underestimating INCEPTION. Everyone and their moms want to see this. I dont see as huge as opening but HUGE legs.
So Shrek is doing well, and I think Iron Man 2 (although could have been higher) is doing well. Certainetly none of those are bombs.
Want to talk about a bomb, MacGruber. Everyone was expecting it to make 20 mil. Too bad for them. This one looked stupid as hell. i didnt even enjoy it on SNL.
Sorry, I never meant any of them bombed…i just meant that they came at the lower end of their estimates. People were predicting $140m for Iron Man 2 in opening weekend (and surely the studio were disappointed with last weekends drop), Shrek around $100m. Robin Hood has a production budget of over $200m, which I can't see it getting back through it's theatre run.
As for Inception, I can't see that being a huge box office hit, and can see it getting in the $40-$50m opening weekend range if lucky. I mean look at the prestige.
The Prestige isn't a good compasion to Inception at all – totally different marketing campaigns, much bigger budget on Inception, different release seasons. I see Inception opening somewhere between $60 – $75 million and holding very well, should it be as good a film as we're all hoping. Awareness and anticipation has started building, and the film's not out for two more months. If they can keep that buzz going, it's going to be quite a hit.
iron man will get more than the 1st and less than alice. Possible movies to pass alise are toy story 3 and inception(which looks tight as fuck)
Unless Tron Legacy or Deathly Hallows does an Avatar.
I agree, this summer's movies underperformed, even I expected Robin Hood to eclipse Gladiator's adjusted gross, Iron Man 2 may not beat Alice in Wonderland.
Yeah I agree with you are right.Only other movies I have my hope on this summer is Toy Story 3 and Inception .
Dreamworks released a lowered estimate of $80M for Shrek's opening a few days ago and they obviously had tracking data to guide them. Saturday's number will undoubtedly show a big increase so the weekend totals can still reach $80M. The studio also predicted it would do better than Shrek 3 but that looks unlikely at this point.
MacBruber's last red band trailer seemed to generate a lot of interest in the film so $1.6M is certainly a big surprise. It's unlikely the reviews were the reason since there were some early raves.
Iron Man 2 may just barely beat the original's $318M. To think so many were predicting $400++M — Rope of Silicon's own early estimate was $475M.
With Iron Man and early estimates, I think the box office of films like "Transformers 2" and "New Moon" have left people a little baffled about what to expect. Both were critically trashed follow-ups to not-particularly-good originals… It's somewhat mystifying that they should both have explosive growth over their previous installments, and yet a very popular hit like Iron Man would deliver a sequel with much higher critical acceptance and not have any growth at all.
Goes to show that there are no guarantees about what the public is going to be in the mood for. Well, I guess "Iron Man 2" is going to make about half a billion world wide by the end of this weekend, so there are *some* guarantees… I guess it's just all a matter of scale.
One thing about New Moon was it came out in a less competitive enviroment when it's biggest competition was a Forrest Gump knockoff called The Blind Side. Had New Moon came out in the summer it wouldn't have been as big to to competition from other franchises
I think its a question of what the fans expected going in. Transformers 2 was a lot sillier than 1, but for fans who just wanted a lot of action and explosions, they got what they came for. The Twilight diehard fans just wanted more Edward, Bella and Jacob and were happy regardless of what everyone else said. But the original Iron Man was smart and fun and that was what most were expecting Iron Man 2 to be, and it wasn't. So the box office reflects the disappointment.
Looking forward, I've heard good things about Get Him to the Greek, and of course Toy Story has already received great reviews. And there are a number of films in July that I think may do very well.
I also read a theory that everyone in the country who was interested in an Iron Man type movie saw the first one so there was not a lot of room for growth. That this is the domestic box office potential for any Ironman movie, period. I don't know what else to think as I thought it would go higher also.
I am VERY surprised that MacGruber only took in $1.6 million. Yes, the skit on SNL isn't funny, but the movie looked much better. I actually saw it last night and it wasn't horrible. I went in with low expectations and I wasn't dissapointed. But it is extremely crass and tons of gross/offensive humor, so maybe that's what turned the public off. I still feel that number is low, though.
Yeah this has to be one of the more dissapointing years for summer movies. I have a feeling that Prince of Persia could start to turn that around. Shrek will likeley do just under 70 mill for the weekend.
Will you be reviewing Shrek Forever After, Brad?
Shrek 4 will make a ton of money, that's no shock. It's rated PG so families and kids will see it, as well as teens who like the silly comedy and gags at pop culture. Anything animated and rated PG automatically makes a ton of money, regardless of what critics think of it. It doesn't surprise me that MacGruber is bombing. For one, it is rated R, and it is going against tons of other films that are PG or PG-13. R Rated movies never make much money, unless they are released in November or December and have action scenes and/or Oscar potential/nominations. It also does not have any famous actors in it, just B-list comedians, so that will turn some people away. It's also a pretty smart movie…with witty writing, and most moviegoers like stupidity and shallowness when it comes to their films. When Avatar, Transformers 2, and 2012 are the most profitable movies in a year, that tells you that most people love pretty visuals and god-awful scripts with no intelligence. This is why box office numbers are stupid…they just reinforce marketing movies for kids/teens and dumb audiences without any charm, wit, or thought needed to watch them. The best films are R-rated artsy films that make very little money at the box office. (wuth the exceptions being The Dark Knight and Minority Report)
If R rated movies only make money in November/December, how do you explain the success of the likes of Superbad, Knocked Up, The Hangover, Tropioc Thunder and Step Brothers?
Not to mention Inglourious Basterds.
Ugh. What a disappointing summer season so far.
I saw MacGruber, and it's actually a pretty decent flick. It's a better parody film than all the ______ Movie movies combined. The movie works when it's making fun of 80's action films (the inane dialogue, the tried and true formula) but I think that people are so far removed from them that a lot of the jokes went over their heads. (The opening song is hilarious complete with 80's style lighting and the awesome seen of a shirtless MacGruber playing sax in a warehouse against fog machines and industry looking lighting. Again, awesome joke for those who love cheesy 80's action films). I think Universal screwed up on the marketing. It had nothing to do with the R rating. It had to do with not building on the momentum it had going into April with the early positive reviews. Then they decided not to have advanced screening for established print critics and they don't like that, hence the brutal beating it took critic wise on Friday. Shrek 4 is also a bit of a disappointment, considering how much Shrek the Third made without 3-D tickets. I don't think the summer is a disappointment yet. I want to see what happens on Memorial Day weekend. If Sex and Prince underperform, then I'm thinking we are starting to see 2005 numbers here.
I Like Boats Too!
I'm not sure I like boats. Too high maintenence.
It's pretty obvious now that Shrek 3 wore out and spent all the goodwill Shrek's 1 and 2 generated. I'm certain DW saw this one coming with Shrek 4 considering how in the last month they changed gears marketing-wise and stopped referring to it as "Forever After" and heavily publicized it as "Final Chapter." That reeked of utter desperation.
This summer has been underperforming so far. Iron Man 2 opened solidly but is now neck and neck with the pace of it's predecessor B.O. wise from what I understand.
I'm confident though that we'll finally see the B.O. explode on 6/18 weekend. I personally know many families from my co-workers and neigbors-mostly 3-4 child families-who chose to pass up on Shrek 4 in favor of the Toys on 6/18. People are being selective with their movies nowadays and they are choosing quality/brands that they know they can rely on. This bodes very well for Disney/Pixar. Early word on TS3 from Showest and "cliffhanger" screenings have been stellar, it's a reputable brand that families know of, and it has tons of goodwill from it's predecessors.
I agree. Lazy marketing, the atrocity that is Shrek 3, and the Shrek 4 being so-so, all resulted in this.
I also agree that people are being selective with all these ticket prices and surcharges. They are not necessarily avoiding moviegoing altogether, they are just going to those thay they are confident that they'll get their 18-20 dollars worth. I also agree with you that Toy Story 3 will be tops this summer.
Has anyone not noticed the number 10 spot or what?
it seems like Universal is going to have a 2008 Fox summer..and that a realllllly bad summer for Fox
Second consecutive sucky summer in a row for Universal.
Gee, and Universal didn't have such a good year last year, either. They really need a hit.
I'm still going to see MacGruber tonight, because my cousin wants to see it, and I want to see it, and I need to find something to do to entertain my cousin while he's here.
What a suprising weekend. Maybe the lack of advertising skrek. But macgruber is shitty. and what the fuck is kites
Kites is a Bollywood film.
I am disgusted that this site isn't considering the 20m friday of Shrek to be a failure. This is considered the ultimate animated franchise (based on numbers) and if it doesn't clear the 75m mark opening weekend thats an embarrassment. Especially with the fact that one fourth of its profits (if it follows the path of 'Dragons') is just the extra that 3D costs. That would indicate even less interest.
This is a huge blow to the philosophy that everything needs to be in 3D. And I'm saddened that its not being reported that way.
Even though I don't know the production budget of Shrek4, I have little doubt that it will be very profitable, especially with all the merchandising, etc. Also, we rushed to judgement on your example of Dragons, and so maybe people are willing to wait a couple of weekends to see what kind of legs it will have. Especially since films in 3d have had, in general, pretty good legs. We'll see.
Plus, Shrek4 has a cinemascore of A.
I mentioned Dragons in terms of ticket price being heavily influenced by extra 3D costs, not in terms of being leggy.
For example, if Shrek 4s 3D attendance was as much as Dragons (75%) then a 20 million friday would mean the same amount of attendance as a 2D's 15 million friday.
I'm not a fan of the Shrek films myself, but surely every studio in town would line up to have a $70m opening for the 4th entry of a franchise. You're in extraordinarily rarified air when you can even begin to call that kind of thing disappointing. $70m has so far been the very upper limits of a Pixar opening, sadly, so even if the wheels are coming off of the Shrek money-making machine they can't possible be hurting for it.
70 Million for a franchise film thats last 2 have opened in over 100 million territory is a disappointment. Especially when inflation comes into play. Double especially when you consider the intense price jump for 3D films. Triple Especially when the thing costs $150m to make, $100m to market, and profits are split about even with theaters.
…and back down to zero when you realize there is no way this film will lose money no matter what it makes at the box office. Shrek3 sold $175 million in DVD sales alone. Yes, you are reading that correctly! Even if that was the peak of it's popularity, it will still bank bigtime in the home market. Even if they made a Shrek that lost significant dollars in it's theatrical run, it would still be worth it to continue to sell Shrek toys and etc. The only issues on a remake are 1) They implied this would be the last one 2) The people making these films are tired of making them (this happens) 3) They could make more money on something else for now. Sometime in your lifetime there will be another Shrek movie. Count on it.
You know a lot of people were worried that Shrek 4 is gonna suck because of Shrek 3. Boy you're wrong. Shrek 3 left a bad taste in my mouth. But Shrek 4 brought back the magic of the first Shrek to me. I really recommend it. It had more action than Iron Man 2 which had like 3 action scenes and also pretty much……..sucked.
Well Shrek 4 is obviously a terrible movie and not even worth going to see. The series has gone too long. It sucks to see Macgruber fail because it looks so funny. Anyways, Shrek 4 would not be anywhere near the type of money if it wasn't for 3D. I hate 3D and Shrek would only be making around 50-55 million this weekend – 3D. Go see Macgruber people, SHREK SUCKS!!!
Have you read nothing in my comment.
Hey, the trailer for Kites looks pretty decent! Skip Shrek4, and MacGruber and go see Kites!
Oh, YES, I DEFINITELY want to go see it now (eye roll).
I just saw Kites and it's AMAZING what they got into the movie for $30 million dollars. Multiple locations, many car chases/crashes, lot's of actors who must be working just to get at the craft services, 130 minutes of film, etc. Brad would probably like it for the extended dance sequences at the beginning of the film which were excellent. Weirdly, the dancing was a subplot, and I got the feeling that Bollywood movies, perhaps of a certain type, must have obligatory dancing. Definitely worthwhile.
@mfan: It's just that people tend to think highly about them, then trash them the night after. Slumdog Millionaire, anyone?
I saw MacGruber and Shrek 4 and MacGruber was clearly the better movie.
To put this in perspective… Shrek 4 will finish this weekend selling 75% of Madagascar 2 opening weekend admissions.
200m is a very long stretch now. What a disappointment for all involved. I wonder what it means for Puss in Boots, though.
Probably means that making him chubby is a turn-off.
You are being too pessimistic. As far as kid's movies go, only Alice In Wonderland and Percy Jackson failed to make three times their opening domestically within recent memory. And they just barely missed that goalpost. Even Planet 51, and Astro Boy more than did 3X their opening. Of course some kid's movies do much better than that. At any rate, there are so many product tie-ins that we can't really rule out a sequel. Shrek Twinkies, Shrek glasses at McDonalds; it's everywhere.
Uh, yeah, and none of the movies you listed are comparable to Shrek. None of those are sequels and none of those are summer films. And there's not going to be any complimentary effect even though it disappointed this weekend.. just look at those wonderful legs on Narnia 2, which fell below expectations over the same frame 2 years ago.
I think if it did numbers similar to the Third then a sequel wouldn't be ruled out. But it's going to fall like 300m WW from that film. Plus Dreamworks has new franchises in both Dragon and Panda so I don't think they will see the desire for another Shrek.
There's no good way to spin how bad this number is. The summer is off to a pretty weak start with IM2 underperforming also. With higher prices, perhaps people are just saving their money for more worthwhile films.
What I meant is the Puss in Boots film slated for 2011. Maybe they'll make it a DTV feature or something?
I still think you are being too hasty. Maybe you are right but Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs was a summer movie and a sequel that grossed 4.7 times it's opening. And since I saw it I can assure you it was mindless drek. Shrek4 is getting a cinemascore of A. People may have a same old, same old attitude about it, but it is still a safe choice for their kids. It's lower opening might just be because people without kids are over it. While I was at theaters over the last few weeks, I couldn't help but notice that Dragons was getting customers who had no kids with them.
Ice Age 3 opened on a WEDNESDAY, which explains the multiplier. Also, keep in mind it was a deflated weekend due to the Fourth of July holiday which killed its Saturday Again, not a good comparison.
I also don't trust Cinemascores. It was reported Iron Man 2 had an A Cinemascore and legs as we have seen aren't very good. Just this past week Robin Hood had a B- Cinemascore, in most cases deadly, but it managed a solid drop this weekend.
I do think Shrek will get just past 200 million (good Saturday hold), but there's a lot of stuff targeting kids this summer, starting with Prince of Persia next weekend. Then it will be hurt by Marmaduke, then Karate Kid, then it will implode when Toy Story 3 arrives.
This pretty much cinches Toy Story to rule the summer. It has a lot of momentum going for it from the early reviews, aggressive marketing, and the Toy Story brand is definitely in the good graces of moviegoers after 2 sensational films.
Pixar's top opening was 70mil or so, and I expect Toy Story 3 to damn near double that and finish with around 450mil domestic.