READER POLL: You Predict the 2010 Oscar Award Winners!
Avatar vs. Hurt Locker ... who you got?
I started tracking this year's Oscar contenders on July 20, 2009 and it has all come down to this final week as Sunday, March 7 will mark the end of one Oscar season and the start of another, and trust me, I am already preparing for Oscars 2011 with a list of 47 possible contenders ready to roll. However, first things first…
It's time for you to vote on who you think will win in the 24 Oscar categories listed below. This means we are voting on everything from Best Picture to Best Documentary Short Subject, that is, if you are up to it.
In an effort not to sway the results I have not included my personal predictions in this like I did last year. I will be announcing my predictions tomorrow, Thursday, March 4. However, that isn't stopping me from having a few comments to share on each category as you go down the list.
I have placed all the major categories on the first page of this post with the below-the-line categories on page two. As I said, there are a few comments from me on each category and remember, pick who you think will win, not who you want to win.
Last year RopeofSilicon readers predicted 17 categories correct out of 21, which isn't too bad, but I am curious to see if this year is shaping up to be as easy to predict as some are saying it is. Personally, the major awards are easy to predict, but once you get into the technical awards I begin to have doubts. Have at it and have fun!
I don't think it's much of a spoiler to say we are really talking about a two film competition here, but as it turns out the preferential voting system (discussed here) does open the possibility for other films, primarily Inglourious Basterds, to enter the conversation. While most dismiss that notion, and for the most part rightly so, it doesn't mean it should be completely forgotten. For the first time since 1943, when Casablanca took home the Oscar, we have ten nominees and that could prove to offer up a surprise. | Best Picture
Total Voters: 1,091  Loading ... |
 We all know who the front-runner is, but there is growing sentiment in Jeremy Renner's corner thinking he may be able to sneak in and steal this one. Anyone out there believe that to be the case? How about BAFTA winner Colin Firth or the early season leader, George Clooney? | Best Actor
Total Voters: 1,031 Loading ... |
 At least this one is a two horse race with a couple of thoroughbreds running very closely behind. Some believe there is a chance for a split at the top allowing for a photo finish. I think if there's a split at the top too many votes will have been cast for the top two to allow the other two any chance. What do you think? | Best Actress
Total Voters: 1,049 Loading ... |
 Is there anyone out there that doesn't think this is all wrapped up? I mean, this one is so obvious I had to go with the above, not-so-subliminal, image so as not to entirely influence the voters. | Best Supporting Actor
Total Voters: 1,013 Loading ... |
 Again, this one is pretty much in the bag, but how about those Up in the Air ladies? Any love for them among the readers? | Best Supporting Actress
Total Voters: 994 Loading ... |
 The above image nearly mirrors the "Creation of Adam" by Michelangelo, but let's not get too ahead of ourselves as I don't want to stroke Cameron's ego anymore than it already has with a $2.5+ billion juggernaut of a film, but to say Cameron and Bigelow aren't the most likely to win this award would be silly. However, I am sure there are some fans that are whispering a certain name off the record, on the QT, and very hush-hush. Now's the time to speak up. | Best Director
Total Voters: 1,024 Loading ... |
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All my picks to win are either a runaway #1 or a very close second. A testament to how seemingly predictable this year's race is. Hopefully not everything is this predictable Sunday and there are a few surprises.
Hurt Locker for Best Picture. The rest are pretty much by the book, with one exception.
I think there has to be one big surprise in the acting categories… so I picked Carey Mulligan to win an otherwise exceptionally weak category. I realize that Bullock is the frontrunner and wouldn't be upset if she won, but I think there has to be a surprise somewhere.
Remember when Marion Cotillard won a few years ago when most people thought it would be Julie Christie? Or even Ellen Page? I think we've got a similar story here… at least I hope.
Yeah I hope Mulligan pulls off an upset too… but we gotta be realistic. I'm still betting on Meryl, though.
If Sandra Loses (Probably wont happen) it would probably be Meryl. If neither win, than Gabby Sidibe. Gabby's role itself is more powerful that Carey Mulligans role in An Education.
I don't understand why KNOW ONE thinks District 9 should not win visual effects, it's by far the best visuals I have ever seen in my life. Avatar might have more visuals but District 9 was incredible, I think your all in for a pleasant surprise.
eh….should win
Pal, visuals in D9 were outstanding but you can't come close Avatar in that department. You know… you just can't. It's impossible, and that's it.
Even if people did think District 9 should win, this is a poll to predict who will win, not should.
IB for best picture, screenplay and cinematography (among others), Streep for best actress, and Mr. Fox for best animated. I bet on that.
Oh, and A Prophet for best FL film.
Do you honestly think that A Prophet will win or are you hoping that it will win?
I think that both White Ribbon and Secrets of their eyes has a better chance of winning than A Prophet, mainly because it was too much of a genre movie.
>>Do you honestly think that A Prophet will win or are you hoping that it will win?
both
Ill take all these bets. Haha There is no way "Up" will lose Best Animated Feature. And Avatar will never lose Cinematography. Basterds has to much competition to win Best Picture. It will, however, win Screenplay.
Up already won best animated feature!
Brad, I think the editing/best picture statistic you're thinking of is the correlation between best picture winners and editing nominees. I believe that the last film to win best picture without an editing nomination was Ordinary People in 1980.
As much as I hate to, I have to go with Avatar for best picture. I'd be much happier with either Basterds (my personal favorite) or The Hurt Locker. I'm also going with The Hurt Locker for original screenplay. I feel like that and director will be its consolation prize. I'm also holding out some faint hope that a split-vote type thing will happen in the best actress race, allowing Carey Mulligan to rise up and win, but I realize that's highly unlikely. Other than that things seem pretty sorted out, except in cinematography, where four films have a legitimate shot at winning, which is pretty rare in any category in any year. Though if Avatar manages to win as a primarily CGI film, then Wall-E should certainly have been nominated last year. Should be interesting!
That's it… I knew there was something linking the two. Thanks.
If Inglorious Basterds and The Hurt Locker split votes for Original Screenplay, which feel would surprise?
I think UP could be a surprise upset in the Original Screenplay category. I would love for that to happen!!
i really wish that Inglorious came out another year other than this one… it feels as if it didnt really get a chance to be at the top when it truly is a quality film. I hate how people get sucked into movies like avatar who use expensive effects and a pathetic story line to get people into the theaters.
totally agree with this entire post, if only it had been a different year IB would have swept every award it was nominated for
Yea I wish IB would win every award!
But I am on team AVATAR and hope it wins Best Pic, and every tech award.
I don't think HL deserves best pic at all!
GO TEAM AVATAR!
I think Im the only person on Team Precious! GO GABBY AND MONIQUE!!!
tarantino will have his day, im going to finally accept it wont be this sunday- but soon, i heard he was doing a project with helen mirren. my real question is how long will we have to wait until aronofsky, fincher and tarantino get directing oscars!
Why are you so worried about guys like them winning when guys like Terrence Malick and Ridley Scott haven't won yet? Fincher, Tarantino and Aronofsky still have a lot of good years left. Their time will come.
Hopefully one of those guys will win next year… Scott with "Robin Hood" or Malick with "Tree of Life."
The Hurt Locker is going to win because of how over rated it is. We all know that it does not deserve this acclaim. It was good, but not great.
Inglourious Basterds should win best director and best picture because of its brilliant story.
Forget Avatar. Am I the only one who noticed how awful the story was? If Cameron is going to make this revolutionary film that he had in the works for over ten years, don't you think he would try to write a better story? It could have been one of the greatest of all time if the story was a little more unique.
And the winner of Best Film goes to a film that no one saw at the movies, from a female director whom hasn't been heard of in years. Please – Academy members : get it right this year.
You stuff up with Slumdog, Million Dollar Baby and Crash in recent years – give it to an actor's director – Tarantino and Basterds.
As for Avaturd – terrible terrrible cliched mess. How anyone can have love for this film – its nothing but an exercise in technology for the sake of 3D – there is no talent in the screenplay or directing.
I'm hopin the voters split on avatar and hurt locker and somehow IB gets enough 2nd place votes to take best picture… It's deserved at this point. Quite honestly if Avatar doesnt take the prize people around the world may go up in arms…espcially considering The Dark Knight got no love last year. But if it does win, i personally may lose faith in movies. Just like music, all bells and whistles and no substance.
Sandra Bullock deserves to win the Academy Award and the people seem to agree. She seems to be leading in practically every poll I have seen. Lets hope the Academy aligns itself with the people.
Brad, Harrelson has ONE 'L'.
I pretty much went along with what I have heard about each category, but there should always be at least one surprise every year… and this year, I'm holding out hope for Anna Kendrick. Up in the Air is a terrific film, and I really hope that it gets some acting recognition this year… Considering that it has the most acting nominations, I am pulling for Anna to upset.
Anna Kendrick was the worst part of that movie. Her performance was essentially a one-note role, and featured one of the worst crying scenes I've ever seen.
I understand that it was for comedic effect, but it fell completely flat for me and just came across as pathetic and desperate.
Sandra Bullock should and will win!
Also "The Hurt Locker" will win.
I still think that Hurt Locker will win Best Picture and Bridges Best Actor. Although Bullock is the front-runner on the Best Actress award, we can seriously have a surprise here, but if that happens I think Gabourey Sidibe will be the one who takes it.
In the Supporting Actor and Actress I think it's a lock.
For the screenplays, I think Up in the Air will in the Adapted and I'm hoping QT wins over Mark Boal, I don't think the screenplay of Hurt Locker is that good. And I even think that Up screenplay is way better.
For Best Director I think Bigelow will win, the academy won't loose a chance to honor a women for the first time in this category.
Sorry if I made any mistakes in my English :)
I definetley think Bullock or Streep has Best Actress…without a doubt. Also Bridges, Waltz and Mo'Nique will be no suprise…looking forward to the Best Picture showdown and would be happy for Inglorious Basterds or The Hurt Locker to snatch it…even Avatar! Also Best Director will go to the amazing Kathryn Bigelow!
Personal Choices
BEST PICTURE – The Hurt Locker
BEST ACTOR – Jeff Bridges
BEST ACTRESS – Sandra Bullock
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – Christoph Waltz
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Mo'Nique
BEST DIRECTOR – Kathyrn Bigelow
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE – UP!
Best Picture – Inglorious Basterds
Best Director – Kathryn Bigelow
Christoph Watlz and Mo'Nique of course.
Meryl Streep
and the big upset….Jeremy Renner
No one will upset Jeff Bridges. He is in a different league than Clooney, Firth, and Renner. If he lost Firth would win, which wont happen.
Inglorious Basterds or Hurt Locker ALL THE WAY
BEST PICTURE – Avatar
BEST DIRECTOR – Kathryn Bigelow
BEST ACTOR – Jeremy Renner
BEST ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – Christopher Plummer
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Mo'Nique
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – The Hurt Locker
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – Up in the Air
BEST ANIMATED – UP
…. I dont understand where you are getting these predictions. Did you actually watch some of these movies? The Last Station? Had 2 roles. Decent roles with 2 good actors. The film itself was horrible. Carey Mulligan did good, but she is a new star. She wont win. Her role wasnt that powerful.
It is such an insult to Meryl Streep's acting stature to be nominated with these newbies! I'd rather see her lose.
Meryl is on a different playing field. To those of you saying that Sandra Bullock will win, let her win! I would rather let Meryl lose to Katherine Hepburn or Jodie Foster.