Predicting What Will be Crowned the Summer 2010 Box-Office Champ?
Who yah got?
Thursday night at midnight thousands of people will be rushing off to see Iron Man 2, effectively kicking off the domestic summer box-office race and from what I heard this morning, 810 of the midnight showings for Iron Man 2 were already sold out. Is this a sign of a Summer 2010 Box-Office Champ in the making or just a teaser of what's to come?
Seeing how I am not the one around RopeofSilicon.com that does the box-office prognosticating I turned to the RopeofSilicon Box-Office Oracle, Laremy Legel, and asked him to deliver a list as to how he sees the summer playing out. I asked him to rank the films in order of which summer release (films released between May 7 and August 27) will gross the most overall as well as include what he believes the opening weekend will be for each.
Of course, he is working purely on assumed information as theater counts are not yet available, reviews haven't been released, etc. But he has kindly offered up an impressive list of 24 of this summer's films for us to evaluate and judge.
Based on his calculations, Paramount's Iron Man 2 will be the summer's box-office champ with an overall domestic cume of $472 million. At the same time he sees Summit's The Twilight Saga: Eclipse taking the opening weekend crown with $155 million.
Now remember, with the numbers below we are dealing purely with domestic numbers. These are not worldwide projections. I have ranked them in order of overall domestic box-office and marked in red Laremy's projected largest opening weekend and overall earner.
Take a look below and then weigh in with your predictions for the summer and stay tuned as Laremy will be here himself tomorrow with this weekend's official predictions as the 2010 Summer Movie Season is upon us. I know your first instinct will be to point out one or two things you disagree with, but perhaps make a top ten of your own as well and see how things shape out…
- Iron Man 2 (5/7) — $147m Opening; $472m Total
- Toy Story 3 (6/18) — $95m Opening; $387m Total
- The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (6/30) — $155m Opening; $285m Total
- Shrek Forever After (5/21) — $82m Opening; $262m Total
- Robin Hood (5/14) — $65m Opening; $235m Total
- Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (5/28) — $68m Opening; $235m Total
- Sex and the City 2 (5/27) — $77m Opening; $212m Total
- Inception (7/16) — $39m Opening; $188m Total
- The Karate Kid (6/11) — $48m Opening; $185m Total
- Despicable Me (7/9) — $45m Opening; $185m Total
- The A-Team (6/11) — $55m Opening; $175m Total
- Salt (7/23) — $62m Opening; $133m Total
- The Last Airbender (7/2) — $28m Opening; $125m Total
- Jonah Hex (6/18) — $40m Opening; $118m Total
- Grown Ups (6/25) — $27m Opening; $105m Total
- Predators (7/9) — $42m Opening; $105m Total
- Knight and Day (6/25) — $39m Opening; $98m Total
- The Sorcerer's Apprentice (7/16) — $28m Opening; $85m Total
- The Other Guys (8/6) — $27m Opening; $84m Total
- MacGruber (5/21) — $32m Opening; $80m Total
- Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (8/13) — $22m Opening; $80m Total
- Get Him to the Greek (6/4) — $23m Opening; $78m Total
- The Expendables (8/13) — $25m Opening; $57m Total
- Step Up 3D (8/6) — $15m Opening; $48m Total
If you haven't done so yet, you can check out my 2010 Summer Movie Preview taking a look at 60 of this summer's releases right here.
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Wow I disagree completely with that list… I mean come on knight and day not even hitting 100m?? and where's killers??? you really think killers is going to make less than 45m? Inception 188m? I think that's too low for it. And The Karate Kid 185m?? i think it's not going to hit 70m!
Karate Kid will have a massive marketing push, and is a kid's movie in the heart of June.
Knight and Day could make as much as $130m, but those are Live Free or Die Hard numbers. The last Cruise film to open in the summer was MI3 in 2006. Does this look like MI3 to you? It doesn't to me.
I disagree to disagree. This list is awesome. Yes, not everyone wants to watch Inception, $180M is correct
Also, I don't think Eclipse will grab best opening weekend. I see it taking $120-130M, not any higher.
ok but please tell me where's killers?
I see killers grossing $26M opening and ending up at $85M. Yeah, I agree Killers is missing
I don't Iron Man 2 will make nearly $500 million. This month of May is full of competition, there's NO WAY IN HELL in one month we can have a half billion dollar movie and FOUR others making over $200 million!
Think about it, for Iron Man 2 to make such sucess, all the others May releases will have to fail somehow – specially Robin Hood. Can Prince of Persia survive both Shrek 4 and Sex and the City?! Also, it's summer, every week there's a new blockbuster, every release is old within days. Even if Iron Man 2 breakes The Dark Knight's weekend record, it will drop hard – because word of mouth is not very good for the sequel and because there will be way too many huge releases in just one month.
Also, if I'm correct, Eclipse will open on a wednesday, so there's really little chance for it to make $150 million on its opening weekend. It will probably do half of that on opening day (God have mercy!), but will drop like a watermelon after that.
I see "Inception" opening up with a LOT more than $39 mil.
I don't think so
Still think that people are overestimating "Sex 2" and "Robin Hood" (I don't think either film will break $150 million domestic, but both will absolutely clean up overseas). However, finally someone agrees with me about "Eclipse" and "Shrek". "Eclipse" will not beat out "New Moon". There is no audience growth anymore. It'll open huge and die out very quickly. As for "Shrek", the last film left a bad taste in everyone's mouth. It could come close to $275 million when you consider that the ticket prices for 3D showings will inflate the numbers, but it'll lose a good portion of admissions from the last film.
Completely agree with you. I doubt Robin Hood will even make more than $90 million. I actually think it will go the Kingdom of Heaven route with a slighly higher gross but only $10-15 million more.
And Sex and the City will not make more than $200 million. I doubt it will eclipse the first one but even if it does it won't beat it by more than $20 million.
I read that tracking for Robin Hood is very weak so $65M opening might be overly optimistic. Shrek's reviews have been overwhelmingly bad so that will probably be weaker than your projections. An early review of Prince of Persia gave it just 3 stars out of 5 which is probably not enough to get it to $235M. In my own list I don't have Robin Hood, The Karate Kid, or Despicable me in the Top Ten. In their place I have Salt, The Last Airbender, and Sorcerer's Apprentice — all of whom I think will gross more than your estimates.
I don't think that Prince of Persia will have the legs to carry it past $200 million, probably not even $150… it looks like it is going to phenomenally suck. Just because it has a similar production story to Pirates of the Caribbean doesn't mean that it will be of the same caliber. Time Out: New York is predicting an oscar nomination for Jake Gyllenhal for this movie. Ugh. I mean, come on. Really?
Also, Twilight: Eclipse will likely not make over $100 million opening weekend… first of all its opening on a Wednesday, and secondly, the Fourth of July will land on its opening weekend. Both do not bode well for the OW performance of the movie.
And I believe you're missing a few movies up there, but we'll see… sorry for all the list criticisms, but I'm just comparing my thoughts against yours. Here's my predicted top 10 of the summer…
1. Toy Story 3- $110/$420 million
I think this one will have phenomenal legs, as long as its quality is at least almost as good as the first two. Of course, I'm also counting on The Last Airbender and Despicable Me to falter a bit. Aside from taking 3D screens, I don't think Last Airbender will be much of a threat… and Despicable Me looks potentially terrible. So yeah, betting on that.
2. Iron Man 2- $145/$400 million
There's no doubt this one will have a huge opening weekend, but how well it will be able to sustain itself at the box office afterwards is the larger question mark, especially with bad reviews starting to roll in. How it does after its OW will depend entirely on how the public likes it. I'm betting on Jon Favreau still knowing how to make a crowd pleasing movie, so I see this one just reaching $400 million.
3. Twilight: Eclipse-$90/$325 million
Should have a huge Wednesday and Friday, but it will drop like a stone every other day of its first week. Still, that first week should be big enough to account for at least half of its final gross. But boy, I sure hope that Bill Condon increases the quality of these movies.
4. Shrek Forever After- $97/$275 million
Granted, the last one was terrible and I'm sure made some viewers never want to see Shrek again. But still, this is going to be the only successful family movie since How To Train Your Dragon, which will have opened nearly two months prior. The parents have got to have something to take their kids to in May. And the 3D price inflation should boost up its numbers.
5. Inception- $58/$220 million
I can see this movie playing out in three ways– 1. It has a very high opening and has great legs, 2. It has a more average opening and has fantastic legs, or 3. It has a lower-than-expected opening but has incredible legs (take How To Train Your Dragon). The fact that it doesn't have to compete for 3D screens will not boost its OW, but will definitely increase its legs. And the only competition that its really going to have will be Salt, and it gets that out of the way on its second weekend. In short, I predict "success".
6. Sex and the City 2- $70/$190 million
True, it doesn't have the pent up anticipation that the first one had, but I think since 2008 the women have become a stronger demographic at the box office, and this is really the only R-rated women's fare of the whole summer. So, I think this one could improve on the first one, both in OW and total gross.
7. Predators- $75/$185 million
No real reasoning here besides a hunch I'm fully expecting to be wrong.
8. Knight and Day- $60/$180 million
Just looks like a lot of fun, and I think people will appreciate that. Also, Cruise and Diaz's presence ought to bring in a lot of different demographics. As long as WOM is good on this one, I definitely see it passing $150 million.
…No, cut the definitely. But I'm expecting it to.
9. Eat, Pray, Love- $36/$175 million
Coming out during a very weak month at the box office, and then is followed up by another typically very weak month. Could be the Blind Side of the year, perhaps? Its actually a double threat, because I can see it working as not only the feel-good movie, but the date night movie as well. Oh, and I'm expecting Julia Roberts to get an oscar nomination. But no pressure, Eat, Pray, Love.
10. Salt- $55/$165 million
Like Inception, doesn't have too much competition and doesn't have to face off for 3D screens.
Salt like Inception doesn't have too much competition? This makes no sense. It has Inception has competition, which looks more appealing than Salt.
I'm strictly talking about after it opens. Inception will take a toll on its OW, though.
I think Eat, Prey, Love looks more like the next Julie & Julia. Not that that's a bad thing.
Who You Forgot:
You forgot DINNER FOR SCHMUCKS!!!!! Steve Carell + Paul Rudd + Zach Galifianakis = at least 80 million. It should be in the 15-20 top grossing films this summer. It could be the funniest movie this summer and dominate comedies.
Inception. You way underestimated this. This is like people's #1 or #2 most anticipated film for the summer. Only 39 million opening? I see like 50 or 60 and an overall gross of 245 million.
Iron Man 2. Dead On.
Toy Story 3. Dead On.
Twilight 3. Sadly Dead On, but I think Iron Man 2 will take the biggest opening weekend. It's sad that the female youth likes this crap.
Shrek 4ever After. Ugh. I don't see it doing that well. I think people might be tired of Shrek. I don't know where in the top 24 but somewhere.
Robin Hood. No, no way is this making 235. This is where Inception should be. Robin Hood will not be that big of a draw. I'm just going to rent it when it comes out.
Prince of Persia. Dead On
Sex in the City 2. I think it will open big, but crash and burn. No way above 200 million
The Karate Kid. Seriously 185 million? No way think more like 100 million
Despicable Me. I don't think that big of an opening, but it will do better than Shrek.
The A-Team. Dead On, maybe less overall though
Salt. I see it bombing, maybe like 50 million in my POV. I believe Inception will hold #1 for a second week with Dinner for Schmucks in a close second. Salt will land #3.
The Last Airbender. I think you're right, but I'm gonna make a bold ass prediction and say because of Shamalan's recent track record, a huge BOMB! Twilight will kill it in the box office for it's second week.
Jonah Hex. BOMB!!! Megan Fox has proved she it not a box office draw unless there is a huge robot involved. And a lot of people don't really know Josh Brolin. This will end up like The Punisher.
Grown Ups. Dead On. It has some of the funniest comedians, but I'm pretty sure it will be bad since Dennis Dugan is directing.
Predators. Will lose to Despicable Me and be forgotten about because Inception comes in the following week.
Knight and Day. I don't see why people think it will do good. But I will agree with what you have.
The Sorcerer's Apprentice. Going up against Inception. It will come in second, but a distant second. I see 60 million overall.
The Other Guys. This will easily make 100 million. You underestimated it. This and Dinner for Schmucks could be the best comedies and both will make above 100 million.
MacGruber. This is such a toss up. I love what I see from it, but who knows? This could be this year's The Hangover or a total bust. I'm cheering for it though.
Scott Pilgrim vs the World. Looks like Speed Racer. FAIL!!!!! Won't get above 40 million.
Get Him to the Greek. Dead On.
The Expendables. Dead On
Step Up 3D. Won't get above 30 million. Bomb!!!
Overall: You forgot DINNER FOR SCHMUCKS! and Inception will impress, perhaps shock and come #2 above Toy Story 3.
1. Iron Man 2 – $450M total
2. Toy Story 3 – $425M total
3. Inception – $275M total
4. The Twilight Sage: Eclipse – $270M
5. Shrek Forever After – $260M
6. Despicable Me – $255M
7. Sex and the City 2 – $195M
8. Grown Ups – $140M
9. Prince of Persia – $135M
10. Eat, Pray, Love – $130M (with Robin Hood, The Other Guys, The Karate Kid, Cats and Dogs 2, Jonah Hex, The Last Airbender, The Sorcerer's Apprentice, and Dinner for Schmucks also crossing the $100M mark)
I think Sex and the City 2 will certainly do well, close to $200M only because according to movietickets.com and fandango.com, it is the second biggest selling ticket this weekend (the first happens to have Iron in its title), so there is a big rush to see this film, could produce over $100M its first five days.
Karate Kid is going to do well, but not that well. It's currently the best tested film that Sony's put out, so if it gets reviews and buzz it could be a nice alternative to kids who are just a tad too old for Marmaduke (though I think everyone is a tad too old for Marmaduke.
I see Knight and Day being the big bomb of the summer. The trailer looks generic and Cruise doesn't have the name he once had. His last $100+M film was War of the Worlds, and I think that was more Speilberg's name than Cruise's.
itll most likely be a photo finish between toy story 3 and iron man 2, my money is on toy story
To address some of the comments on my numbers:
Inception: Smart movies don't open well. The Matrix didn't open well. Nolan's non comic book films don't open particularly well. So there's not a lot of precedent for a big opening splash. Do I want it to open well? Hell yes. I want to see that film more than any other this summer. Does that mean everyone else will follow my lead? History suggests no.
Dinner for Schmucks: One the worst trailers of the year. I love Rudd and I like Carell, but I'm not enthused by this film.
Comedies in general don't make $100m domestically. The Hangover was a massive outlier. More common are items like Pineapple Express ($89m) and Sarah Marshall ($63m). On average, we don't see one $100m domestic comedy per year.
Totally agree about Dinner for Schmucks. I was extremely disappointed with the trailer. I feel like people are saying it will be the funniest comedy of the year only based on Carell, Rudd, and Galifianakis being in it. The trailer was atrocious (non-responsive when I saw Date Night) and the poster makes it look like it's a movie about pedophiles.
The one I don't agree with is Salt. This whole "Jolie in an action film" doesn't seem like enough reason to make it a hit. All of the other actioners look more appealing, like The A-Team, Knight & Day, and Inception. Salt seems like the type of movie we've seen many times before and every audience I've seen the trailer with seems to notice that. By the time Salt opens, the market for another action movie will be oversaturated and a generic serious action movie like Salt probably won't be in demand.
For the overall crown I think it's between Iron Man and Toy Story, with both definitely opening to $100 million-plus and flirting with The Dark Knight's record, but ultimately falling short. Shrek is a big wildcard to me, purely for its opening weekend. No one liked the third one and the reviews so far are brutal, but is it still viable enough to draw out that mega-audience that the second and third films did opening weekend? There won't have been a kids film that anyone saw since How To Train Your Dragon, which should boost its numbers even more. But regardless of its opening weekend (at this point nothing from $85-$150 million would shock me, especially with the 3D boost), I expect it to finish right around or just short of $300 million.
I really don't think Robin Hood will make money as serious historical epics don't make big money in the U.S. anymore. I see an opening of around $35 million; if its good it could get to $150 million, if not it won't reach $100 million. The major issue I have is with Eclipse. With it opening on a Wednesday and the highly frontloaded nature of these films, there is absolutely no way in my mind that it will make $155 million opening weekend. It should obliterate the Wednesday record (Half-Blood Prince has it I think, and I want to say it's around $55 million?), but then drop like a sledge hammer. Yeah it will get a Friday boost, but I see an opening weekend of less than $100 million. The last two Harry Potter films opened on Wednesdays in the summer and had identical $77 million opening weekends, with huge Wednesdays, and Twilight is more frontloaded than Harry Potter (and something like $5 million less popular if you compare New Moon and HBP). Also, I agree with the final number as I also think the series's audience maxed out with New Moon and will decrease from here. But with $155 million opening weekend and I'd say at least $65 million opening day (Wednesday), add in Thursday and you're looking at a $240-plus million five day, which would demand a final number of at least $325 million in my mind. And with how much everyone outside the target audience hated New Moon, I don't see any way it has a five-day of more than $200 million.
Also, I know everyone thinks Inception is going to be this year's Avatar or whatever, but Laremy is absolutely right: deep, intelligent films do not make money these days. Avatar was completely simple and mindless, and aside from that, comic book movies are generally the biggest money makers. Inception is also an original story, and those don't generally do very well either. And quite frankly, they really need to release a trailer that gives off some idea of the plot (the new synopsis helps) or risk it bombing. DiCaprio is not a sell on his own, and while "from the director of The Dark Knight" is probably an intriguing idea for most people, I think the apparent complexity without an explanation will drive people away. All in all, I'd say anything over $50 million opening weekend and $200 million final gross would be surprising to me.
With all due respect Leremy, these are really awful predictions. There is no way the market is going to give us 10+ 175m movies in one Summer. It just can't happen.
With its demographic appeal already saturated, there's little chance Robin Hood has to open to 40m, let alone what you are predicting (those legs won't happen either) 185m for Karate Kid? 42/110 for Jonah Hex? 62m opening weekend for Salt? Better legs for Iron Man 2 than Iron Man 1? SATC, Inception, Knight & Day, MacGruber, Scott Pilgrim… are you serious? Are you really serious?
With all due respect Gaphers, you are wrong for the following reasons:
1) You didn't spell my name correctly, though it's listed multiple times. That's just a lack of effort.
2) 2009 had ten movies over $150m in the summer. So your complaint is that I like this year 15 percent more? Doesn't box office seem to be going up as time progresses?
3) "Are you serious" is just sound and fury, signifying nothing. I wouldn't have made the predictions for a laugh, or because I lost a bet. Are you serious with your comments? Are you really serious?
Lastly, make your own predictions if you'd like to actually bring something to the table here. As you've noticed, we've got some smart folks who argue with facts as opposed to bluster. Join them, it's not too late for you.
1. Jesus Christ, I typed an 'E' instead of an 'A', I'm really really sorry.
2. Not once do you think the market will cool down any weekend all summer. Look at the weekends you are predicting. Figure out why they will open less or why they will face competition.
3. Explain this one to me… how can Iron Man 2 have legs on par with the original if you're giving Robin Hood a 65 freaking million dollar opening and a 235 freaking million dollar total? Speed Racer bombed and Narnia disappointed back in 2008. Iron Man 1 had nothing to hurt it until Indy, which wound up not doing anything. Not 3 200m dollar movies like you are suggesting this May will have.
As a matter of fact… why don't you explain all of these predictions, hmm?
Tell me how Jonah Hex, A-Team and a bunch of other actioners all released next to each other will all have big big legs after big big openings. Then tell me why Salt and Knight & Day will have awful legs after overpredicted (for Salt at least) openings.
Tell me how MacGruber will open to more than The Other Guys.
Tell me how Eclipse will have a 155m 3-day when it opens on a Wednesday. And if it did open on a Friday… tell me why 60% of its total would come from its opening weekend. In the Summer.
Tell me why you think Inception will open so low because it will confuse audiences, but it will have great mainstream WOM from the multiplier you are giving it.
Finally, explain to me how a cult comic book adaptation headlined by Michael Cera about a guy fighting off his girlfriend's seven evil ex-boyfriends will make 80 MILLION DOLLARS.
My prediction: 90% of these movies won't make what you're predicting them to make. I usually like your predictions and I've been following ROP including the Oracle for quite some time now. But these are just bad. I'm not going to predict my numbers until you tell me why you are predicting these.
I totally agree with Gophers
I think he made a hunch. Its not actually the real deal, anyone can have their opinion, right?
I agree that Sex And The City 2 will see a nice increase over the original, but Salt is being underestimated. If it's a good movie, it will do significantly better than Wanted. It's a similar situation to Sandra Bullock in The Proposal. That was exactly the type of role her fans wanted to see her in so it did very well, and Salt is exactly the type of role Angelina fans want to see her in. Heck, I skipped Wanted, but there is zero chance of my skipping Salt, and if it's good, I will probably see it twice.
The Karate Kid may face a tough situation finding an audience. It looks from the trailers that they are playing the movie straight up. The original Karate Kid had a light, breezy tone, with a girl to impress and an action finish that managed to be inspirational. I'm not seeing these ingredients in The Karate Kid. It looks to be all action, and simply beating up your opponents is not inspirational. In fact it looks like a gang movie. So it may not appeal to parents wanting a children's film, and older males are already knocking it. We'll know more later.
Is he kidding us with these predictions???
Especially with JONAH HEX. WAY too high – it comes out the same weekend as TOY STORY 3 – which is underestimated (and overestimated Jonah Hex by miles and miles).
And really? $27 million for THE OTHER GUYS??! Talladega Nights made nearly $50 MILLION on it's opening weekend, and it didn't even have the pedigree of comedic promise as Wahlberg, Sam Jackson or the Rock. STEP BROTHERS was rated R, and it even made more than $27 mill opening weekend.
What's with the super high numbers for MACGRUBER, ROBIN HOOD, KARATE KID, and PREDATORS? AND the super low numbers for EXPENDABLES, INCEPTION, LAST AIRBENDER, GROWN UPS and SORCERERS APPRENTICE? What happened, Laremy? These predictions shock me!
Your comment has nine question marks in it, I will try to respond to all:
1) I am not kidding you with these predictions.
2) I am not kidding you with these predictions.
3) I am not kidding you with these predictions.
Intermission: You can't overestimate at dollar amount by miles. It's a mixed metaphor.
4) Yes, really.
5) Talladega Nights was in 2006, off the strength of Wedding Crashers. The Other Guys comes off the weakness of Cop Out. It's a film I love the trailer on, but don't see opening huge, at this point, IN MAY.
6) See above, you asked the same question twice again.
7) Macgruber has also been called low on this thread.. which leads me to believe it's up for debate. Robin Hood's number feels a little like Troy to me, but with some wiggle room for inflation. Karate Kid is proof that families see movies. Not my thing, but I think people will come. Predators is based on AVP, which made 38/80 back in 2004.
8)Rambo did 18/42 in 2008. Inception is too smart, as I've mentioned in the comments already. There's not a lot of great history on a July Airbender, but Stardust and G-Force were the two I looked most closely at. Grown Ups, to me, looks much like Chuck and Larry in terms of release date and talent involved. The trailers look just terrible. For Sorcerer's Apprentice I looked at Percy Jackson and then factored in Nic Cage (and the dislike audiences seem to have for him lately). But the path is clear if it is a decent film. At this point it's impossible to know either way on that title.
9) Nothing happened. It's an article, based on predictions, that you don't agree with. But not making a single prediction of your own is what impresses me the most, Charles Carmichael. Harder to argue against you that way, and less work for you too. Bold.
Hahaha. I didn't know you'd actually reply back on this article. For one, I did not know you saw extra question marks as it being said that amount of times. Interesting. Sorry 'bout that. I also, unlike other commentators, did not mean to try to offend you or pick on you. I respect ya, Laremy. Sorry if anything I said came off mean or wrong.
Re: Intermission… Yes, I KNEW someone would comment on the miles thing. "By dollars and dollars" though, didn't feel like it really got the sheer length of the overestimation completely/clearly across. So I went with miles. No big deal.
4) Oh. Okay.
5) Wedding Crashers came out the year before Talladega Nights though. You're telling me that Talladega did really well mainly because a movie a year before it also did well? Their ratings and premises were vastly different too, as were the release dates, and the cast. I'm not really getting your connection here. If you're going off that both Talladega Nights & Wedding Crashers had cast members from the "new brat pack", then you're correct there… but "Other Guys", of course, also has "brat pack" actors. I think audiences are smart enough to realize that "Other Guys" will be a much, much better product than "Cop Out", based on the pedigree of it's all-star cast and crew alone… especially if they see that all-star cast presented well in the trailer, and if there are words in the trailer saying "From the director of Talladega Nights", etc. etc. (which there are, of course). Audiences know what they're getting and what to expect and why to go (come on, it's the Anchorman guys – massive, MASSIVE success on DVD to many) when they see the trailer. It's also PG-13 and opening the same weekend as "Talladega Nights".
At the very least, it should hit $35+ million opening weekend – no doubt about it. I say this, because their previous movies have been known to open near $30 million or much more – "Step Brothers" would've opened even higher if it wasn't R – and because the starpower of the cast, and because it's in the summer when many people are free, and because it actually looks really funny (all unlike Cop Out). I really don't understand how you can only compare this to Cop Out. If Cop Out was made by Adam McKay or starred Will Ferrell or actually looked funny to a LOT of people, or even had a strong cast memeber other than Bruce Willis, then sure. But that isn't the cast here.
7) MacGruber can actually probably do decent, but under $25 million opening weekend seriously. You're telling me that more people think it looks better than Other Guys and will open higher than Other Guys? The trailers are pretty horrendous, aside from an amusing joke or two. Robin Hood can definitely open that high, but I was more concerned with the apparent long legs you gave it. Word-of-mouth is disappointing, and it's got action movie fare coming out in the next weeks to clonk it on its head far down. Also, Karate Kid seems more like a word-of-mouth thing, like you say with Inception or Sorcerer. I think it can go over $30 million, but it already has other kiddie fare to battle with, so I don't think it's hitting over $45… that is quite bullish.
As for Predators… that's back when people were actually expecting something GOOD/fun out of AVP. I'm not saying it will bomb, but Predators is coming off of AVP:R. Not a good sign. It's got promise because it looks like it's made by talented people, but it may be too late. It feels like an "…again?" type of thing – heard it already from several. Who knows though, but definitely not over $40 million opening weekend.
8) Yes, but Rambo opened in January, and didn't also have Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bruce Willis, Jason Statham, Jet Li and the others in the trailer. It's this summer's Inglourious Basterds (opening-wise; not in terms of quality) to me. Airbender won't have very good legs, but the opening should be a bit higher than that, over a July 4th weekend. It's in 3-D and it's based off an immensely popular kid's show. G-Force and Stardust were unknown properties, with one of them looking way too bizarre and odd. Grown Ups does look horrible, but as far as I know – the wholly mainstream audience is laughing at those stupid trailers. And once more, that's a cast line-up you can't ignore. It's not one of them individually that'll get big money (except for Sandler), but altogether as a team.
And yeah, I got a Percy-Jackson vibe for Sorcerer too… but it's Disney and they know how to sell the heck out of these kinds of movies. I'm saying $35+ million at least. Definitely one though, that we'll have to wait more on as it gets closer.
As for Inception… I just read that you compared it's originality to Prestige's originality & opening weekend, coming off of Batman Begins. Although understandable, Inception feels like a different breed. After BB, I don't really feel like many, many people really KNEW the name "Christopher Nolan" when it comes to film. I think Dark Knight did that for him. NOW they'll pay attention to his name. Dark Knight nearly tripled Batman's numbers, and his name got spread around much, much more AND masses are wondering what his next "masterpiece" will be. Inception still feels like an event picture. It doesn't feel like people will go "Eh… I dunno, it might be stupid"… if anything, they'll trust that the name Christopher Nolan (thanks to The Dark Knight) now guarantees top-notch, pristine quality. Not everyone will go off of that, but more than you'll expect. Prestige also looked much darker, was an unknown period piece, was much smaller, wasn't an action movie, and was released in October. Inception should do quite a bit better than your prediction, I believe.
9) Honestly, I WAS gonna put my predictions right after that comment, but then I was like "Does anyone even really pay attention to mine?". Would you really like to see my predictions, Mr. Laremy? (By the way, I love that you get the Chuck references).
:)
OW DG
Iron Man 2 $155 $440
Robin Hood $35 $90
Shrek Forever After $90 $270
Prince of Persia $80 $210
The A-Team $60 $150
Toy Story 3 $90 $350
Knight & Day $40 $90
Twilight: Eclipse $75 $320
Predators $45 $90
Inception $70 $200
Salt $30 $60
The Expendables $45 $90
Resident Evil 4 $35 $80
I disagree almost completely with this list. First of all, Iron Man 2 will not be able to have legs as good as the first (you're giving it 3.21 multiplier, the original had 3.23), Inception will make A LOT more than $39 million in its opening weekend and will have worse legs than you think, Eclipse has NO CHANCE of hitting even $120M in its opening considering it's opening on WEDNESDAY, you're also assuming Sex and the City 2 will have better legs than the first, Salt will fall about 70% in its second weekend, and Grown Ups will make $10 million less than an average Sandler comedy does in its opening. All of that is simply not happening, and those are just the most glaring mistakes. I hope you're kidding, you clearly gave no thought to your predictions.
My predictions? Toy Story 3 wins with $132M opening and $458M total, Iron Man 2 is a close second with $156M opening and $430M total, Shrek follows with 116/335, then Eclipse with 103/327, then Inception with 81/273. That's my Top 5.
I think you're overestimating Toy Story 3 and Inception. I just can't see Toy Story 3 becoming one of the top 5 domestic grossers of all time. Besides, I think the franchise has been gone for far too long, and it might not resonate with people like it did 10 years ago.
And I don't think that audiences will buy into a complex/confusing original sci-fi thriller like Inception (unless its really, really good…). I believe people tend to shy away from sci-fi thinkers, as they seem to be more into sci-fi adventures, like Avatar.
Well, stranger things have happened. If Shrek 2 once managed to take third place, then TS3 surely can make its way up there. People of all generations absolutely love the first two films, the third film will get additional love from college kids who were children 11-15 years ago, and the young kids are bound to love it, too. Early reviews have all been positive, the marketing is flawless, people cheer every time when the trailer is shown in the theater, it's in 3-D and is probably one of the most cross-appealing movies to ever come out.
As far as Inception, that's exactly what I'm betting on – that first, it makes general public curious enough to manage Avatar / I Am Legend numbers in its opening weekend, and second, it has good enough WOM to have great legs. Both of those could easily happen, imo. People over at WB aren't dumb and they will make sure that trailer that plays before Iron Man 2 will get everyone talking, "from the director of TDK" will definitely help, DiCaprio has just starred in Shutter Island which was a critical AND commercial success, the rest of the cast is great, the film will have been the first big PG-13 cross-appeal summer blockbuster since Knight & Day, and I suspect many people won't get turned off by, but rather attracted to an original, interesting and serious film after two months of remakes and sequels. So here's my reasoning.
Okay, you caught me, I was kidding.
Either that or you're completely wrong on most of your feelings. One of the two.
Things to consider:
1) Sequels do occasionally have better legs than the original.
2) "You clearly gave no thought to your predictions" is just mean-spirited. You're not a cool person for that one. No more interacting with you from me, adios, stay jerky.
Sorry, I was in a pretty bad mood and your predictions only made it worse. What I said was just a clear impression I've got. I'm not cool sometimes and perfectly understand that, now you're acting all offended, as if I called you a dumb idiot who knows nothing about predicting box-office here. Peace.
As far as sequels and their legs, if occasionally means "extremely rarely", then yeah, you say the truth. But Iron Man 2 evidently has worse WOM than the first film already, it'll be frontloaded as there is no surprise factor and it's much more anticipated, and it's got Robin Hood and Shrek to deal with. Same with Sex and the City 2 – the first one was already heavily frontloaded and the legs will only get worse this time, like in Twilight/New Moon case.
Now, trying not to offend you again, could you PLEASE just say what your logic was behind Salt having such terrible legs with no competition, and Eclipse making $155M in its OW when it starts on Wednesday. Jeez. I guess, we gotta just wait until the end of summer and see how many of your predictions were ultimately even remotely close to actual results. Many of them are unbelievable to me and I'm simply being 100% honest here.
I'd really like to see some reasoning in addition to the numbers. Even just a blurb. Why won't Inception pass even $200m?
Laremy's reasoning can be inferred. He is predicting a lowish opening but giving the film great legs. I agree with him that films like Inception, and The Sorcerer's Apprentice are the types of films that many people will wait for a recommendation from friends before seeing. Think The Matrix. I believe his reasoning is solid, whatever the numbers turn out to be. Keep in mind that these preliminary estimates are for fun. Small differences in assumptions can produce large swings in the numbers. For example, if Inception can manage a $49 million opening and keep Laremy's predicted multiplier, the estimate goes up to $236 million.
There seems to be a lot of interest in The Last Airbender after the impressive looking VFX in the last trailer and this may translate into a much stronger opening than what you have. But some early buzz has been weak and if accurate, then it will probably fade fast.
I agree with your points on Inception. It looks more like Memento and Nolan's films outside of the Batman series have not come close to $100M. I expect it to do well critically but box office is suspect. Also, some early feedback sounds muted.
I've heard good buzz about Salt so I expect that to open about where you have it but to have good legs and end up much stronger.
What good buzz have you heard about Salt?
I think you've underrated Inception, and overrated Robin Hood. After TDK every fanboy and geek will want to see Nolan's film.
Yes, that certainly helped The Prestige.
Yes, because The Prestige was certainly released after TDK and was a $160-million sci-fi action thriller released in the middle of the summer, had a cast to die for and effects and shots that people had never seen before.
Hey Brad, do an article so we can talk about what movies we think will be this year's bombs lol
I don't think Salt is going to be that big. People expecting it to be this year's Wanted will be surprised. I really don't think that one is going to be huge. Entertaining? Probably. Wanted numbers of $340M+ worldwide? Nope.
Also, Karate Kid won't be as big as predicted up there. And The Last Airbender is gonna bomb. The audience who actually knows what that is about is very limited.
Jonah Hex will also tank. That's another character where the general audience has no idea what it's based on. And it's going to get destroyed opening weekend because the masses will be seeing Toy Story 3, both kids AND adults appeal to that one.
Let's ease up on Laremy though, like it was stated earlier, no actual theater numbers have been said yet + no reviews or word of mouth yet. Let's re-group in September and see where we stand with all these movies and figures :)
Thank you Roger, your empathy has been noted and appreciated.
As for your other takes:
1) I would say the somewhat lackluster trailer for Salt gives me pause, but then again certain people hated Wanted even after they saw it.
2) I personally hope Karate Kid makes $20 dollars. But something has to get the family dollar, right?
3) Jonah Hex is definitely in trouble, agreed. $40 / $118 might end up very high. But it's hard to say because I haven't seen it and don't know how large the marketing blitz will be.
Here's something we can all agree on:
"I personally hope Karate Kid makes 20$" = quote of the summer.
I think Angelina Jolie, featured in the Salt trailer, has plenty of luster. If Brad Pitt can take a difficult to promote film like The Curious Case of Benjamin Button to $127 million, surely Angie can take a decent action movie to an even higher level. Sony just needs to keep the marketing on the action aspects and not on the thriller aspects.
Yes and that thing will be Marmaduke
I am ranking the movies on the basis of their opening weekend numbers.
1.) Iron Man 2 – $ 151 mil (Cume – $ 415 mil)
2.) Shrek Forever After – $ 102 mil (Cume – $ 285 mil)
3.) The Twilight Saga:Eclipse – $ 88 mil (Cume – $ 345 mil)
The numbers are for the weekend. The movie would have a record setting Wednesday and another huge Thursday. 5 Day numbers should be around $ 205 million.
4.) Toy Story 3 – $ 84 mil (Cume – $ 375 mil)
5.) Prince of Persia – $ 76 mil (Cume – $ 205 mil)
6.) Sex and the City 2 – $ 74 mil (Cume – $ 205 mil)
7.) Inception – $ 68 mil (Cume – $ 265 mil)
8.) Knight and Day – $ 64 mil (Cume – $ 165 mil)
9.) The Last Airbender – $ 63 mil (Cume – $ 200 mil)
10.) The A-Team – $ 60 mil (Cume – $ 175 mil)
11.) Salt – $ 56 mil (Cume – $ 130 mil)
12.) Robin Hood – $ 54 mil (Cume – $ 175 mil)
13.) Predators – $ 51 mil (Cume – $ 160 mil)
14.) The Sorcerer's Apprentice – $ 48 mil (Cume – $ 140 mil)
15.) The Karate Kid – $ 45 mil (Cume – $ 190 mil)
16.) The Expendables – $ 42 mil (Cume – $ 130 mil)
I am sorry but some of those predictions are just insane.
Here are my predicitons:
1. Iron Man 2 (5/7) — $135m Opening; $380m Total
2. Toy Story 3 (6/18) — $95m Opening; $319m Total
3. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (6/30) — $155m Opening; $291 m Total
4. Shrek Forever After (5/21) — $80m Opening; $244m Total
5. Sex and the City 2 (5/27) — $77m Opening; $189m Total
6. Inception (7/16) — $47m Opening; $181m Total
7. Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (5/28) — $60m Opening; $160m Total
8. Grown Ups (6/25) — $44m Opening; $155m Total
9.The Karate Kid (6/11) — $41m Opening; $141m Total
10.Despicable Me (7/9) — $45m Opening; $140m Total
11.Eat Pray Love (8/13)- $31m Opening; $133m Total
12. The A-Team (6/11) — $40m Opening; $113m Total
13.Knight and Day (6/25) — $33m Opening; $95m Total
14.The Sorcerer's Apprentice (7/16) — $31m Opening; $92m Total
15. The Last Airbender (7/2) — $33m Opening; $90m Total
16. Salt (7/23) — $36m Opening; $82m Total
17. The Other Guys (8/6) — $28m Opening; $80m Total
18. Predators (7/9) $30m Opening; $75m Total
19.Robin Hood (5/14) — $28m Opening; $70m Total
20. Killers (6/4) — $27m Opening; $70m Total
21. Dinner for Schmucks (7/23)- $25m Opening; $63m Total
22. The Expendables (8/13) — $25m Opening; $59m Total
23. Jonah Hex (6/18) — $18m Opening; $42m Total
24. Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore (7/30)- $15m Opening; $38m Total
25.Get Him to the Greek (6/4) — $15m Opening; $37m Total
26. Step Up 3D (8/6) — $14m Opening; $29m Total
27.MacGruber (5/21) — $11m Opening; $29m Total
28.Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (8/13) — $8m Opening; $23m Total
Speaking of insane predictions, how is Twilight supposed to make $155M in its opening weekend when its released on a Wednesday, and considering New Moon dropped with more than 40% in its second day.
Exactly.
Eclipse opens on a Wednesday so it will never have a opening weekend over $80M.
Eh? How about Transformers 2?
The Twilight saga is more frontloaded than The Transformers Saga!
We seemed to already have our Summer 2010 box office champion! In the form of Alice in Wonderland.
I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks Summer Movie Season started 8 weeks early this year. Must have something to do with the groundhog seeing shadows or whatever.
Question: When is a summer blockbuster not a summer blockbuster?
Answer: When it's released in March!
That seemed to be Disney's stratagy.
You are supposing that Eclipse will do about $30M-$40M after is opening weekend? Considering the $75M opening day and the $25M Thursday?
Yeah, I guess it's gonna fall 90% or something in its second weekend.
This is exactly what American movies are all about. Box office.
Yes, we like getting paid. Instead of having tax money given to filmakers, we collect taxes from them.
Hi Brad,
Very impressive effort to tackle such a big task.
I like Rogers comments above.
I don't think the market will expand as much to accomodate all these box office numbers, I think what will happen is a few of your guesses will not hit the mark by alot rather than all of the grosses not hitting the mark by a little. It's like you've done a bracket for the NCAA tourney and putting 6 teams in the final four.
The only movie I see flirting with 500mil domestic is Toy Story 3. It already has everything going for it, including the all important positive buzz/word of mouth from the Showest screenings, advance screenings, and the college "cliffhanger" screenings (for which I was a part of at USC and it had a packed college crowd laughing hysterically a buzzing like crazy).
Also, There is no way Toy Story 3 will open to less than 100mil on it's 3 day opening weekend. It'll eat every other movie that is opening the week before and the week after it, and it's going to get ugly for Jonah Hex who is committing suicide by opening against it.
I agree. Toy Story has the highest potential of all the summer releases to make a Dark Knight type of box office run. 3D surcharges, summer weekdays which will be robust with all them kiddies, Pixar fanboys, and Casual movie fans who are not necessarily Pixar fans buy more Toy Story fans. And since the word on the films' quality have been rapturous and superb, it definitely has everything going for it.
1. Toy Story 3: 137.5 opening weekend, 502mil DOM and definitely 1bil plus worldwide(Someone at Warner Bros is going to get fired for planting Jonah Hex next to this one)
2. Iron Man 2: 154mil opening weekend, 440mil DOM
There should be a big drop-off after these 2 which in all likelihood will be 1 and 2 or vice versa.
3.Eclipes: 88mil opening weekend, 315mil DOM. New Moon had a huge opening but it redefined the meaning of "frontloaded" since. UP opened to half it's opening weekend and outgrossed it overall domestically
Pardon me, but has the quality of the movies nothing to do with you?
Deadline Hollywood reports that Iron Man 2 opens to $55M (6th or 7th best opening day of all time). They also report that it will be in the $135M range for the weekend. Disappointment or what???
Anything BUT a dissapointment! Schools will take the family market away from cinemas on Friday. Saturday and Sunday will be the true test for Iron Man 2.
The Dark Knight opened big due to school holidays already starting.
Alright here's my Top 10 predictions:
1. Toy Story 3 (6/18)- $129m Opening; $435m Total
(Mainly because of the 3D ticket prices)
2. Iron Man 2 (5/7)- $147m Opening; $393m Total
3. Twilight Saga: Eclipse (6/30)- $79m Opening; $305m Total
(Don't forget Eclipse is opening on a Wednesday, look at the numbers for the Harry Potter films that opened on Wed. I'm basing it off those numbers cause they are a good comparison for Twilight)
4. Inception (7/16)- $76m Opening; $289m Total
5. Shrek Forever After (5/21)- $97m Opening; $286m Total
6. The Last Airbender (7/2)- $69m Opening; $237m Total
7. Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (5/28)- $85m Opening; $193m Total
8. Sex and the City 2 (5/27)- $65m Opening; $181m Total
9. The A-Team (6/11)- $55m Opening; $171m Total
10. The Karate Kid(6/11)- $47m Opening; $163m Total
OR
Robin Hood (5/14)- $54m Opening; $167m Total
I think you're all being too generous on Robin Hood, I'm predicting $35M on its way to $120M at most.
Inception's kind of an unknown quantity, but I'll give it around the same numbers as Batman Begins, $45M OW and a total of about $200M, give or take.
Shrek 4 I think is going to seriously underperform, the people who were kids when the first Shrek came out are much older and I think bad-will from the last movie isn't going to create expectations, also those first reviews have been BRUTAL. Opening to $78M with a final of maybe $230M.
Prince of Persia I think is going to go the route of Clash of the Titans, I could see it reaching $65M first weekend and then a total close to $150M but a huge international gross.
Toy Story 3 is going to be massive, it has the nostalgia factor which could be quite large as well as a big marketing push and two incredibly well-received films preceding it. I'd go with $80M OW and then $390M total.
I was very excited for Jonah Hex but that first trailer looked ridiculously stupid. Josh Brolin spends the whole trailer doing his George Bush squint and Megan Fox can't even pull off an accent. I'd go with $30M out of the gate and then $80M final.
Given Iron Man's first weekend pull of $133.6 I can see it having pretty strong legs, I know I'll be going to see it again. It's an easy $400M, possibly $450.
And as a final random summer movie I can see The Other Guys being the summer's top comedy with an opening of around $35M and a final of $110. [Not counting Sex and the City as a comedy.]
I'm probably the latest one here but seriously why is there fighting over a stupid box office article? You don't have to insult other people just because they think other movies will do better then others. That being said I have a few comments:
I can't see Shrek 4 making $82 million with probably around 4000 theatres and a bunch of 3D screens. Even though the franchise is running out of gas, every time I turn the TV on theres always an advertisement of fat Puss in Boots and kids love that crap! I'm predicting it to open over $100 but it will die out fast after that.
I also think Toy Story 3 will surpass Iron Man 2 but that being said I have already seen the opening weekend for Iron Man 2. I don't think NOW that reviews have come in and are relitively bad that Robin Hood will make what your predicting.
As I said before I am writting this now AFTER summer movie season HAS started and that I got to see REVIEWS and THEATRE COUNTS. No disrespect Laremy I just thought I should put this out there :)
I'm coming a little late to the table, but this has got to be one of the most fun discussions of the summer's box office on the web.
I would never have guessed that Robin Hood would be as big a bomb as it was, or that MacGruber would be such a flop. I don't think there was much excitement about either one, but MacGruber had so much publicity. I kind of feel like the MacGruber sketches on the Betty White SNL episode hurt it, because they were so awful.
Here are some predictions, in no particular order:
-The Sex & the City trailer looks awful. It will open well, but early bad buzz will keep it from beating the first one's weekend. Then it will drop off fast. I think it ends up with $130 million.
-Prince of Persia will benefit from two craptastic movies in a row: now that Robin Hood and Shrek have opened to disappointing numbers, movie fans might as well see PoP on its opening weekend. I'm thinking Brad Bevet's opening weekend is about right, but I don't think it'll have the legs to get far past $200 million.
-The Karate Kid won't open that well. I doubt it will crack 100 million. I can see parents taking their kids to see The A-Team instead (as long as A-Team isn't rated R.)
-Anticipation for The Expendables is high among a certain macho geek demographic. I see it doing better–coming in right around the $100 million mark.