Predicting 'Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince' Wednesday/Thursday Box-Office
I have a feeling this Harry Potter thing is gonna catch on
UPDATE: Now the Los Angeles Times is reporting 4,500+ midnight showings are sold out and the film has a shot at beating the all-time domestic record for Wednesday ticket sales.
Doesn't it figure Brad would hit me up for a Harry Potter Wednesday and Thursday prediction piece nine hours before audiences will begin filling theaters for sold-out midnight screenings? Of course, I am a sucker for this kind of stuff and having loved Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince I am more than willing to talk about it a little more and open up the discussion as to just how high it will go.
The way I see it, we have two potential benchmarks when trying to ascertain how much Half-Blood Prince will rake in on Wednesday and Thursday. First off is the opening of Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix two years ago:
Wednesday: $44.2m
Thursday: $18.4m
Total: $72.6m
The latest Transformers must also be taken into consideration, if only because it's the most recent big-name Wednesday opening.
Wednesday: $62.0m
Thursday: $29.1m
Total: $91.1m
Bear in mind Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen pulled off this trick against poor reviews as pre-sales that essentially guaranteed it huge cash.
Now then, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince is not getting anything nearing poor reviews. It sits at a plum 98 percent on RottenTomatoes, the notoriously difficult grader Brad gave it a healthy "B", and I personally found it to be the best in the series. Right now it's 22 percent higher than Order of the Phoenix, so if people needed an extra reason to buy up every ticket around they've certainly got one, and according to MovieTickets.com that's just what they're doing as more than 1,300 showtimes are sold-out as of Monday afternoon. As a matter of fact, The Hollywood Reporter brings word Half-Blood Prince has already destroyed the $12 million in midnight box-office Order of the Phoenix brought in with a chance at $18 million.
Next we've got to factor in theater counts. Half-Blood Prince will get approximately 4,300 theaters according to BoxOfficeMojo's current tally. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen maxed out at 4,234. Michael Bay's film was rated PG-13, while the latest Potter comes in at a very bankable PG. Factor in the fact it's been six weeks since a non-animated family-friendly summer film was released (Night at the Museum II). Finally, throw in a weak (almost comically) non-family winner in Bruno last weekend and you've got the witches' brew for a huge Potter opening.
Potential caveat #1: Transformers 2 banked $14m in IMAX sales … whereas Potter won't open in full-on IMAX for two weeks.
Caveat #2: Will families not support the film until the weekend? These are the questions that definitely haunt me, but the fact the film has been delayed about eight months already leads me to believe people are ready to see it.
We can assume Thursday's numbers will be anywhere from 30 percent to half of Wednesday's monster opening. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen's Wednesday opening of $62m represents almost complete saturation on the sold tickets front so there's not a little of wiggle room to go up there. Where I think Potter thrives is on Thursday… and overall. We're looking at a billion dollar (worldwide cume) film here, folks. If pressed I'd say $1.14b total, giving it second place on the old non-adjusted for inflation chart. The last one made $938m, and I believe this one is going to rock it.
I was $20m under on my previous Wednesday call, and I very well could be $20m over on this one, but we're going for it anyway. Hold me to it, my Wed/Thurs prediction for Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince:
Wednesday: $60.1m
Thursday: $34.7m
Total: $94.8m
If you feel you've got some additional knowledge how's about you drop it on us in the comments section? Plenty of y'all are proficient at this so let me know where my logic has gone horribly wrong, or if, gasp, you sort of agree with me that this Potter this is going to be big.
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I don't see Potter outgrossing Transformers. I say it will make $58M wednesday and $27M thursday for a 2-day total of $85M.
HBP also has no competition. Bruno is going to fail and Transformers is history. I think it's going to go higher than Any other movie because audiences are ready for a summer blockbuster that is actually a good movie.
Wed: $64.3 mil
Thurs: $43.2 mil
Total: $107.5 mil
This movie's going to be the best Harry Potter movie, despite my reservations about whether it'll stay faithful to the novel.
I think you're underestimating Harry Potter here. It is outpacing Transformers 2 in the sales cycle right now, so while I don't think it will pass it's $62 million opening, I think that it has a good chance at opening with around $55-60 million.
Oh… sorry. I'm agreeing with you here… I looked at the Wednesday gross of Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix and thought that was your predicted gross. $60 mil sounds about right.
As much as I HATE to say it, i dont believe HP6 will beat out Transformers…which is a pity
Pity you say! This film will be f***ing epic and own transformers it'll make 112 million openning weekend and match Transformers Wednesday numbers without the drop-off it had thursday. It'll drtop it's second weekend. Alot!
Holy cow, the AMC 30 in KC sold out 14 midnight shows!
On my way to the midnight show in an hour.
Wed: 61.5mil (around 16.3mil midnights)
Thur: 26.5mil
2-day total going to the weekend: 88mil
im going to say 95.2 for the 2 day and 187 million for the 5
There's nothing in the past of HP that would make us believe that the sixth one is going to make as much as Transformers 2 did. I think that you, and many here, are totally overestimating the first 2 day gross.
What makes you think it's going to jump from 44 to 60 million (a 36% increase), if HP5 was as anticipated as this one?
Ok, fans have waited more than what they initially had to wait, and ticket prices have increased too. But anyway, a 36% increase is just unrealistic. I do believe that this one is going to make more than what HP5 did on it's first five days, but NO WAY as much as Transformers 2. HP5 made 140 million. How can the next in the franchise make 60 million more than that? Is just … not.
I would say:
Wednesday: 52.5 million
Thursday: 24.1 million
Total: 76.6 million 2 day start.
I also have the feeling that this one is finally going to be the next in the franchise to make over 300 million domestically after the first one, and that is definetely going to become the 5th movie in history to reach the magical 1B worldwide (but it's not going to surpass The Return of the King's 1.133 million, this is just going to be honorarely beaten by Potter's final chapter).
I agree with Raichu. It's incredible the amount of money the HP franchise has grossed. It even gave James Bond a run for his money. Rowling has been so successful because she has built a solid foundation on which to create a fantastical world (to your point, worth hundreds of millions of dollars).
i peg it at 100-120 mill wed thurs and a 5 day gross ( including the worldwide tally) to around 200 + i see this taking the TDK crown and i wouldn't mind that one bit… this movie is going to be EPIC
I think the two year gap has really worked to Warner Brothers benefit. Being a Potter devotee myself, I am suprised by how much I am obsessing over seeing the movie. It's been a dry two years for Harry Potter fans. We're hungry.
But you also need to keep in mind that Harry Potter has an almost cult following. While HP6 is going to rake in cash from fans, and maybe a good chunk of non-fans thanks to the good reviews and WOM, it does nothave the huge mainstream appeal of Transformers 2. Anyone can see TF2. HP6 may scare away non fans.
Let's hope I'm wrong.
HP6 will not beat T2's wednesday opening, though I believe it can take them down at the final numbers.
58 Mil and 27 Mil Wed and Thu, 404M total
nothing can beat transformers, even those wizards…
Wednesday: $53M
Thursday: $28M
Total: $81M
Wednesday: 59.8
Thursday: 31.3
2 Day: 91.2
3 Day: 94.9
5 Day: 186.1
Wed.-55 mil.
Thurs.-25 mil.
2 day total-80 mil.
weekend gross-100 mil.
5 day-180 mil.
This movie could do far better than that, but the Potter fan base is built in, the movie has a massive opening weekend and drops off considerably there after. This one has one thing going for it, critics are raving about it. One thing that propelled the Dark Knight was excellent word of mouth and Transformers has fallen considerably because of poor word of mouth (although I thought the movie rocked. As far as action goes there is no better film. Harry Potter doesn't come close to beating Transformers in terms of action.). It will be interesting to see how things play out. I hope it does well because it was a good movie.
I think it will make around $60M on Weds. and $30M on Thurs. I don't think it will take down Transformers 2. Even though Harry Potter is geared towards kids, I have a somewhat hard time understanding what the characters say. The plot might be hard for younger viewers to understand but nonetheless they still want to watch the movie. That will make the difference between Harry Potter and Transformers 2.
I know Transformers 2 is geared towards kids too but Harry Potter involves complex storyline that deals with wizards, potions, mythical creatures, spells, etc.
Till yesterday i had this one making $52mil on Wed and $28mil on Thurs…. But now i feel it will be more than that. The Wednesday record of Transformers:ROTF should still be safe though.
My Predictions:
Wednesday – $58.5 mil
Thursday – $36 mil
Thats a cool $94.5 mil in 2 days… And the Weekend should be pretty strong for this as well… This movie will atleast sniff the $200mil mark in its first 5 days(atleast… it can cross that as well!!)
Saw this at midnight. I think it'll do better than most believe based on the fact that there are things going on in this movie (romances especially) that fans have been waiting for prodigiously. the feeling of being connected to these characters is even more intense in this film and therefore I think it'll do very very well. I can't say for sure if I think it will smoke T2 but it'll defiantly be in the same ballpark.
no! i hope to god that harry pothead does not break anymore of dark knight's records!
Harry Potter is an amazing store and will be a hit for years to come I'm sure. I cant wait to see the latest work from them. Does anyone know what kind of money she has made off these books and movies?
@athar: you're within .3m of me. I counting you on my side.
EASILY over $100mm the first 2 days… EASILY. Will break all records.
@laremy: Yes Laremy. For the 2 day count i am on your side. Lets see whose single day predictions for Wednesday and Thursday holds up.