Podcast: Oscar Talk, New DVDs and Blu-rays, 'Die Hard' and 'Safe Haven' CinemaScores and More

And, as always, your questions, comments, voicemails and more

Rope of Silicon PodcastWe're running at a swift 91 minutes for today's podcast, digging into the final days of the 2013 Oscar race, discussing today's new DVD and Blu-ray releases, wallowing in sorrow over the B+ CinemaScores for both A Good Day to Die Hard and Safe Haven and answering several of your questions and voicemails.

I want to remind you that you can call in and leave us your comments, thoughts, questions, etc. directly on our Google Voice account, which you can call and leave a message for us at (925) 526-5763, which may be even easier to remember at (925) 5-BNL-POD. Just call, leave us a voice mail and we'll add those to the show and respond directly.

An alternative to that option is a new way of leaving us a voicemail directly from your computer. Just click here and no matter where you live in the world, all you need is a microphone and Internet connection and you can leave us a voicemail. Look forward to hearing from you!

As always, I have broken down this episode on a minute-by-minute basis if you would like to skip ahead and below I have featured the information on how to download the podcast, find us on iTunes or merely just listen in your browser.

  • 00:00-1:12 - Introduction
  • 1:13-8:28 - Random bits
  • 8:29-17:34 - B+ CinemaScore for Die Hard and Safe Haven, plus Safe Haven Twitter reactions
  • 17:35-20:56 - [Listener Question] Any last minute Oscar betting advice? 10 bucks on Argo, Spielberg, Day-Lewis, Lawrence, Jones, Hathaway, and Wreck-It Ralph gets me $115. If I go with Waltz instead of Jones, it goes up to $145. Although... I'm a little frightened of QueenBear. Thoughts? [the colleague]
  • 20:57-24:02 - Does Argo "deserve" to win Best Picture?
  • 24:03-26:38 - [Listener Voicemail] Antonio Shu asks about reactionary Oscar predictions
  • 26:39-30:44 - [Listener Question] In my Film and Lit class there were some side conversations going on about Django, and how much they loved it. But when I asked why they liked it so much, it was because of all the shooting and that's about it. So long story short, does it bother you when someone likes a film for the "wrong" reasons? Or do you feel that anyway that the audience likes a film is acceptable? [RagingTaxiDriver]
  • 30:45-33:19 - #GoodComments
  • 33:20-43:15 - New DVDs and Blu-rays
  • 43:16-48:11 - [Listener Voicemail] Francisco - Foreign actresses
  • 48:12-53:10 - [Listener Voicemail] Hamza - Action stars
  • 53:11-55:27 - [Listener Voicemail] Kai - Just Missed at the Oscars
  • 55:28-57:29 - [Listener Voicemail] Paco - Agrees with Brad on comedies
  • 57:30-1:00:48 - [Listener Voicemail] Xarnis - Do people give films that are visually appealing more credit than they deserve?
  • 1:00:49-1:12:28 - Over / Under
    • 1.5 years before Brad updates his Letterboxd. (IngmarTheBergman)
    • 2.5 Nicholas Sparks adaptations in the next 5 years [the colleague]
    • .5 more Oscar wins for Philip Seymour Hoffman [Hamza]
    • 2.5 more movies that Brad gives an F to in 2013 [Hamza]
    • 2.5 oscars for Lincoln [Cordia]
    • $350 million worldwide for 'A Good Day to Die Hard'.[Cordia]
    • 4.5 Oscar noms for David O. Russell's untitled Abscam project. [Jake17]
    • 2.5 months until the French Connection come back on the podcast [Jake17]
    • 0.7 billion total debt combined in the current box office draft when it's all said and done [JN Films]
    • 10 filmmakers that are active participants on Ropeofsilcion.com [JN Films]
    • 10 years until a Pixar film wins Best Picture. [Aidan]
    • 2 more films set in Middle-Earth [Xarnis]
    • 7.0 on IMDb for 'The Great Gatsby' [Xarnis]
  • 1:12:29-1:18:27 - Playing the Percentages:
    • % chance Brad guesses more Oscar winners this year than in 2012 [the colleague]
    • % chance Laremy guesses more Oscar winners than Brad [the colleague]
    • % chance The Palme d'or winner or audience award at Tiff winner wins best picture next year [Cordia]
    • % chance 'Side Effects' makes both Brad and Laremy's year end Top 10 list [Jake17]
    • % chance Jennifer Lawrence becomes the 2nd woman to win two consecutive Best Actress Oscars for Silver Linings Playbook and Serena. (Last time this happened was 1936-37 for Luise Rainer) [Jake17]
    • % RT score for Spike Lee's Oldboy [Jake17]
    • % RT score for Snitch [JN Films]
    • % RT score for 'Before Midnight' [Xarnis]
    • % the 2014 Oscar Best Picture winner comes out in the first half of 2013 [Xarnis]
  • 1:18:28-1:22:08 - #GoodTweets
  • 1:22:09-1:24:33 - [Listener Question] With all of the recent mass shootings that have taken place in the US do you think there's a chance of a film or films being made about any of these events or do you think studios will be weary to invest money into this type of project because of the negative backlash it would most likely receive from the public? Also, if a film is made, do you think public outcry against it would result in minimal box office success or will the opposite take place? [Jennifer]
  • 1:24:34-1:26:24 - [Listener Question] Much like the discussion about Argo, and whether a win is good or bad for the Academy, what do you think about the lobbying/campaigning process that supports a particular performance or film? Is this good or bad for the Academy? How could one tell if a performance/film was rewarded because of lobbying instead of it's true artistic value? [Manu]
  • 1:26:25-1:31:28 - Closing

Finally, I do have one quick request. If you could give us a review on iTunes it would be greatly appreciated.

You can listen below, on Stitcher, download the audio in .mp3, iTunes format by right-clicking here and saving it to your computer or subscribe to the podcast on iTunes. It's up to you.

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You can find Laremy's writing here on RopeofSilicon.com and also at Film.com and on Twitter at @Laremy.

Winter 2013 Movie Box-Office Draft
Brad vs. Laremy

Laremy's Picks
MovieDateBudgetBox-OfficeCurrent Total
Promised LandJan 4$15m$7.5m-$29.9m
The Last StandJan 18$45m$27.6m-$84.8m
Movie 43Jan 25$6m$23m$8m
Hansel and Gretel: Witch HuntersJan 25$50m$151.6m$26.6m
Stand Up GuysFeb 1$15m$3.1m-$34.3m
Side EffectsFeb 8$30m$20.6m-$54.3m
Beautiful CreaturesFeb 13$60m$16.8m-$133.1m
Escape from Planet EarthFeb 14$40m$21m-$78.9m
A Good Day To Die HardFeb 14$92m$117.1m-$112.8m
Dark SkiesFeb 22$0
Brad's Picks
MovieDateBudgetBox-OfficeCurrent Total
Texas Chainsaw 3DJan 4$20m$34.3m-$15.6m
Gangster SquadJan 11$60m$91.5m-$58.4m
Broken CityJan 18$35m$19.4m-$68m
MamaJan 18$15m$89.1m$51.6m
ParkerJan 25$30m$17m-$57.9m
Warm BodiesFeb 1$30m$69.1m-$5.8m
Bullet to the HeadFeb 1$55m$8.9m-$128.5m
Identity ThiefFeb 8$35m$75.3m-$12.1m
Safe HavenFeb 14$28m$34m-$36m
SnitchFeb 22$0

The Winter 2013 Movie Box-Office Draft competition involved both Brad and Laremy "drafting" ten films each in hopes of scoring the largest net total by taking a film's worldwide gross subtracting two-and-a-half-times the reported budget. The film must be released in January and February of 2013. The draft took place on December 21, 2012 during the RopeofSilicon Podcast which you can listen to right here.

Listed above is all the most recent data as of this post. Budgetary information is not necessarily accurate and will most likely not be accurate until closer to or after each film's release.

  • jessied44

    I will be fine with Argo winning. It is a good movie. My only complaint, there is nothing original about it. It has a paint by numbers adventure movie feel. Maybe for BP you need something inventive, unusual or particularly well done for its genre. Plus I'm in the anything but Silver Linings Playbook please because I don't think the top slot should be the result of manipulative, over the top campaigning.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Manu/ Manu

    [Listener Question]
    Brad and Laremy what is your ideal Criterion Collection top 10 list?

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Jennifer/ Jennifer

    The reason I'm hoping for a Jessica Chastain win at the Oscars is because I feel like she was able to convey so much with a role that was more subtle in its complexities, whereas Jennifer Lawrence had a role that was loud and in your face (not saying that's a bad thing, just different from Chastain's role). Do you think it's easier to win an Oscar with a role that's more outgoing or does it not matter?

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/maja/ maja

    It seems like Brad may have duped Laremy once again in the box office draft...giving him a false sense of security of a victory before coming back for a crushing victory. The Beautiful Creatures bomb has really given Brad the edge.

    Also...I just wanted to say that last week I read Laremys book whilst on vacation in the carribbean and thoroughly enjoyed it. Excellent book.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      I was thinking the same thing putting today's numbers together, which I didn't do until after the show. I was shocked to see him go further in the hole.

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

        I just listened to your podcast. (also saw Laremy on king5! Now I have a face to the voice). I heard you say your success rates in awards predictions are better than the guys over at Gold Derby! I would love to hear yours for the oscars on sunday :-D I have put my final votes in. Part of it for me is just guessing right! But I am like you, I feel free to like what I like because I like it!! So I have my favorite performances that I am sticking with just because I believe in them-its good juju!!

  • Jeffrey

    Would you rather:

    Be kidnapped by Iranian terrorist (Argo) or Be a slave in American South in the 1850s (Django Unchained)
    Be trapped on a lifeboat with a tiger (Life of Pi) or Have your home washed away from the ice caps melting (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
    Have to face the declining health of your spouse (Amour) or Have to live with bipolar disorder (Silver Linings Playbook)
    Be in charge of the hunt for Osama Bin Laden (Zero Dark Thirty) or Be in charge of the hunt for John Wilkes Booth (Lincoln)

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AS/ AS

      An "Iranian terrorist"? Seriously?

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Jeffrey/ Jeffrey

        Sorry, let me amend that to -

        Be taken hostage by Iranian revolutionaries (Argo).

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Fox/ Fox

    I'd like to start off my comment by giving a shout out to Laremy. I'm in an Oscar pool and I was googling "Oscar predictions" for some alternate opinions (not that Brad would ever be wrong), and I stumbled upon a video of Laremy absolutely crushing it on a local morning talk show. And this was pretty high up in the Google results.

    I'll be back with some games after I give the podcast a listen.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/cradleman/ Jonathan

    Game idea (based off of something from Laremy's book). Have brad give Laremy the reasons for a film's rating, and have laremy attempt to guess the rating.

    For example:

    Film 1: some explicit sexuality
    Film 2: crude and sexual content throughout, nudity, drugs, drinking, pervasive language, reckless behavior and mayhem - all involving teens
    Film 3: disaster related peril and violence, nudity, sensuality and brief language

    answers -
    Film 1: NC-17 (Lust Caution)
    Film 2: R (Project X)
    Film 3: PG-13 (Titanic)

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Silrian/ Silrian

    You guys might not get to this for lack of relevance, but I do think this is a fun question and I'd love to hear your fantasy's about it:

    What pair of actors (and/or director) would you guys love to see make a film together(assuming it's a great one)? The criterium is that none of them ever worked together before. What combination would just psyche the hell out of you if you got up one day and saw it announced.

    Mine would definitely be DDL opposite Bale, directed by Fincher. Perhaps a family drama. That could be of the charts, method madness!

  • adu

    Hey Laremy,

    What's the link to televised talk about the Oscars?


  • http://hypethemovies.wordpress.com Jordan B.

    Laremy, I'm loving the T-Swift song to close the show. Excellent choice!

  • http://timeforafilm.com Alex Thomas

    Did you say DeNiro was going to win Brad!? Definitely a bold call. 2 horse race now for mine, I can't split Waltz and TLJ. Interestingly they were my favourite performances of that category (well, maybe Fass in Prometheus too) which is something I can't say for most categories.

    I think people are so reactionary with Oscar predictions as Antonio mentions. For people to jump off Lawrence to Riva so fast boggles me. Agree with Xarnis too, especially with the Life of Pi example. I have no leniency on the other hand for amazing visuals, although I feel if it's a movie you like then perhaps more credit is given. Prometheus an example for me, I dug the story (I know many didn't!) so the visuals just made it even better.

    Letterboxd is so great! I can see why you two wouldn't update it, but I find it's great for managing lists; both best of the year and watchlists.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Artorious/ Steve Stager

    [Listener Question]

    Over at Grantland, they are doing a tournament for the biggest Oscar travesties. They include Kubrick never winning Best Director, Scorsese not winning until The Departed, Crash winning Best Picture, Goodfellas losing Best Picture and many others. Right now, they have Kubrick vs Scorsese in the finals. What do you think the biggest Oscar Travesty is?

  • oyid

    "Río Bravo" would be better translated as "River Fierce", by the way.

    Has Laremy seen "The Good, The Bad and The Ugly"? I feel like it's a must-see, but whenever someone claims to "hate" a genre I immediately as if they've seen said genre's best films. I realize this may be annoying.

    With a bunch of the ceremony being dedicated to "celebrating" musicals, I feel like Hollywood may be full of artsy drama club types who'd love nothing more than to sing and dance in extravagant productions, but are not allowed by the more pragmatic producers and studio execs. As such, they must be ecstatic that Les Mis have them an excuse to go all out with the showmanship this year. What do you think? Is this fair? Am I just being prejudiced? Are there more examples of movie genres most artists would like to see and make, but that are just not that profitable?

  • Susan

    Question for you two; what happened to The Impossible stateside? The movie has been a big hit overseas, particularly Spain and the UK. Was it an uninterested audience or a poorly plotted release schedule, based too much on getting Oscar love it barely garnered?

  • Bruce

    2 Oscar wins for Amour
    Playing the percentages:
    % chance Argo wins Best Picture
    % chance Steven Spielberg win Best Picture

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Aleonardis/ Aleonardis

    I'm sure you guys will see this, but The Hollywood reporter did an article with an Oscar voter from the directors branch going through each category and explaining his process for voting for what he did. You guys have been wanting transparency, I think this makes things a little more clear. http://t.co/pjpIDggK [Aleonardis]

  • Zack

    Over/Under: 200 uses of the word "Smaug" by the time the film is released

  • http://www.scifiblock.com John D.

    Couldn't drink up enough liquid courage to call the voicemail line, so I'll just leave my question in the comments instead:

    [Listener Question] Do you think that the Best Director Oscar is somehow "lessened" this year due to the fact that Affleck is not in the race and would have surely been the winner if he had been? By "lessoned" I mean that there will always be talk about Affleck's snub even when discussing this year's winner 5, 10, or even 15 years down the line. [John D.]

    To go along with that question I have a quick Buy/Sell:

    -The winner of the Best Director Oscar at this Sunday's ceremony mentions Ben Affleck somewhere in his speech, either has a joke or not [John D.]

    • http://www.scifiblock.com John D.

      That "lessoned" should be "lessened" of course...

  • http://shloggshorrorblog.blogspot.com/ Shloggs

    Bluray.com finally reviewed The Insider and gave it high marks!


    Playing 'dem Percents:

    Percent chance this years Oscar winner for best picture follows the trend since No Country of being a film rarely discussed of referred to again after winning. (Shloggs)

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/G-Man/ G-Man

    Can I still buy / read Laremy's book if I don't have a Kindle?

    • http://www.film.com/author/laremy-legel Laremy Legel

      Yep, on Amazon if you search Laremy Legel or Film Critic the paperback is very available. :)

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/G-Man/ G-Man

        And it's eligible for Free 2 day shipping on Prime...win.

        Picked one up. Always happy to support you guys.

  • Susan

    I was curious of your opinion's on a few of today's big foreign directors. What do you think of, generally...
    Pedro Almodovar
    Lars von Trier
    The Dardenne Brothers
    Olivier Assayas
    Michael Haneke (outside of Amour)
    Park Chan Wook

  • JN Films

    1.5 months till a film gets a better grade then Side Effects by you guys [JN Films]
    3.5 more Best Picture Oscar nominated films by Spielberg [JN Films]
    50% chance in 2020 that Inception would be the best sci-fi film that has come out in the last 10 years [JN Films]
    0.00000000000000001% chance that Megan Fox wins a Oscar for TMNT [JN Films]
    50% chance that McG's next directed film will suck [JN Films]
    0.000000000000001% chance that a Tyler Perry directed film will be certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes (His only certified fresh film is Star Trek, and he had a mini role in that. [JN Films]
    50% chance that Harlem Shake replaces Gangam (pronounce it incorrectly as "gang-em" please, it will do the world a favor) Style as worst song ever [JN Films]
    50% chance that if Romney got elected everyone would be saying 'FML' instead of 'LOL' because life would suck [JN Films]
    90% chance that Obama could own Romney at a game of Basketball [JN Films]
    50% chance that Obama will get a plan passed through congress that isn't moderated for the Republican party (Boehnor's ignorance is ruining the United States) [JN Films]

  • Chris

    Accidentally posted this on last weeks pod, but here I go again. Since the supporting actor award is such a toss up, hypothetically, do you think DiCaprio or even Jackson would be the frontrunner if they were chosen instead of Waltz? If so, what if waltz was still nominated and DiCaprio took the nom of another, would DiCaprio still b the frontrunner? Thanks love the pod, will donate when u get the button up.