Podcast: More Oscar 2014 Talk, Hobbits, Smaugs and More

Plus scheduling for the next box office draft

Rope of Silicon PodcastToday's episode sort of breezed by and while it isn't long we cover a lot of ground including some early thoughts on The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, plenty more Oscar talk, scheduling the next Box Office Draft, new DVDs and Blu-rays, games and a Christmas edition of Watch This or Watch That. Hope you enjoy.

A quick reminder of our upcoming Holiday Schedule where we will be taking a break from December 16-26, returning on December 27.

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I want to remind you that you can call in and leave us your comments, thoughts, questions, etc. directly on our Google Voice account, which you can call and leave a message for us at (925) 526-5763, which may be even easier to remember at (925) 5-BNL-POD. Just call, leave us a voice mail and we'll add those to the show and respond directly.

An alternative to that option is a new way of leaving us a voicemail directly from your computer. Just click here and no matter where you live in the world, all you need is a microphone and Internet connection and you can leave us a voicemail. Look forward to hearing from you!

As always, I have broken down this episode on a minute-by-minute basis if you would like to skip ahead and below I have featured the information on how to download the podcast, find us on iTunes or merely just listen in your browser.

  • 00:00-1:12 - Introduction
  • 1:13-2:50 - Show notes
  • 2:51-8:05 - What's Laremy showing at his screener party?
  • 8:06-11:15 - Few more show notes
  • 11:16-15:43 - Box-Office Challenge Update (chart below)
  • 15:44-22:49 - Some early thoughts on The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
  • 22:50-33:50 - 2014 Oscar talk
  • 33:51-43:26 - [Listener Question] Could you possibly do your best to explain to those who don't have a good sense of how the Oscars are voted on and don't know how "politicking" may be involved? I feel like I have an idea of how it works but could probably be better educated on the process. [Steve Crobie]
  • 43:27-50:17 - New DVDs and Blu-rays
  • 50:18-55:28 - [Listener Voicemail] Aidan - Inside Llewyn Davis Oscar chances
  • 55:29-1:01:40 - Over / Under
    • $900 million worldwide for The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug [Aidan Khan]
    • B- for Saving Mr. Banks [Alex]
    • C for The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug [Chris]
    • 5.5 times Brad and Laremy laugh to themselves during 'The Hobbit 2' when 'Smaug' is said [GothamCity151]
    • 3 noms for The Great Gatsby [JN Films]
  • 1:01:41-1:04:39 - Buy or Sell
    • Ridley Scott's The Counselor gains a strong cult following in the next 10-20 years. [GobleGableOneOfUs]
    • The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug gets better reviews than An Unexpected Journey, but is actually a worse film [Aidan Khan]
    • The Wolf of Wall Street is as good as Goodfellas [Chris]
    • The success of Saving Mr. Banks leads Disney to make a movie about the creation of Mickey Mouse
    • "Gone Girl" will earn David Fincher a Directing nomination. [TheOneWhoKnocks]
  • 1:04:40-1:08:46 - Playing the Percentages
    • % chance of Paul W.S. Anderson's Pompeii opening at number one at the box office [Magill Foote]
    • % chance Wasteland makes Laremy's Top 10 of 2012 [Hudsucker]
    • % RT for August: Osage County [GobleGableOneOfUs]
  • 1:08:47-1:14:55 - Watch This, Watch That: Christmas Edition [Jordan B]
    • It's a Wonderful Life (1946) vs. Miracle on 34th Street (1947)
    • A Christmas Story (1983) vs. Home Alone (1990)
    • Lethal Weapon (1987) vs. Die Hard (1988)
    • Christmas Vacation (1989) vs. Bad Santa (2003)
    • The Nightmare Before Christmas (1993) vs. How the Grinch Stole Christmas (2000)
    • The Polar Express (2004) vs. A Christmas Carol (2009)
    • Kiss Kiss Bang Bang (2005) vs. Iron Man 3 (2013)
  • 1:14:56-1:16:36 - #GoodTweets
  • 1:16:37-1:18:40 - Oldboy spoiler
  • 1:18:41-1:21:30 - Closing

Finally, I do have one quick request. If you could give us a review on iTunes it would be greatly appreciated.

You can listen below, on Stitcher, download the audio in .mp3, iTunes format by right-clicking here and saving it to your computer or subscribe to the podcast on iTunes. It's up to you.

NOTE: Apple's iTunes randomly checks for updated episodes, so sometimes the latest episode may not be immediately available in iTunes.

You can find Laremy's writing here on RopeofSilicon.com and also at Film.com, Laremy.com and on Twitter at @Laremy.

Fall 2013 Box-Office Draft
Brad vs. Laremy

Laremy's Picks
MovieDateBudgetBox-OfficeCurrent Total
GravityOct 4$100m$631.4m$381.4m
Ender's GameNov 1$110m$85.4m-$189.5m
Inside Llewyn DavisDec 6$11m$0.405-$27m
The Hobbit: The Desolation of SmaugDec 13$166m  
Tyler Perry's A Madea's ChristmasDec 13   
HerDec 18   
Anchorman: The Legend ContinuesDec 20   
Walking with DinosaursDec 20   
The Secret Life of Walter MittyDec 25   
August: Osage CountyDec 25   
47 RoninDec 25   
Brad's Picks
MovieDateBudgetBox-OfficeCurrent Total
Insidious: Chapter 2Sep 13$5m$155.4m$142.9m
Battle of the YearSep 20$20m$14.1m-$35.8m
Machete KillsOct 11$20m$15m-$34.9m
Jackass Presents: Bad GrandpaOct 25$15m$139.3m$101.8m
Last VegasNov 1$28m$79.8m$9.8m
Thor: The Dark WorldNov 8$170m$610.4m$185.4m
The Hunger Games: Catching FireNov 22$130m$672.5m$347.5m
FrozenNov 27$150m$190.1m-$184.8m
Saving Mr. BanksDec 13   
American HustleDec 13   
The Wolf of Wall StreetDec 25   

The Fall 2013 Movie Box-Office Draft competition involved both Brad and Laremy "drafting" ten films each in hopes of scoring the largest net total by taking a film's worldwide gross subtracting two-and-a-half-times the reported budget. The film must be released in September through December 2013. The draft took place on August 20, 2013 during the RopeofSilicon Podcast which you can listen to right here.

Listed above is all the most recent data as of this post. Budgetary information is not necessarily accurate and will most likely not be accurate until closer to or after each film's release.

  • TheOneWhoKnocks

    Why the hate for Tim Burton, Brad?

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      Huh? Tim Burton?

      • TheOneWhoKnocks

        I was referring to "Nightmare Before Christmas". You said that you would like to burn it alongside the Jim Carrey "Grinch".

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

          Oh, yeah, that's not a Burton movie though. But no, I can't stand that movie... so boring. Ugh. I've never been able to make it 60 minutes without falling asleep.

          • Charles3Mall

            Don't like Nightmare Before Christmas either and I'm a big Burton fan. I movie with a slight story that's stretched out with unmemorable songs and a bad guy that comes out of nowhere.

      • http://www.film.com/author/laremy-legel Laremy Legel

        Bet he's talking about 'Nightmare Before Christmas', which, oddly enough, TB didn't direct. Tell you what though, I liked that 'James and Giant Peach'.

  • Aidan Khan

    65% on RT for The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug [Aidan
    Playing The Percentages:
    % chance The Hobbit: There And Back Again is the best of the
    Hobbit trilogy [Aidan Khan]

  • Chris Neilson

    Buy or Sell:
    The Wolf of Wall Street wins Best Picture Comedy/Musical at the 2014 Golden Globes [Chris]
    Playing The Percentages:
    % chance American Hustle wins Best Picture [Chris]

  • Alex Sopher

    C for The Hobbit: There and Back Again [Alex]
    Buy or Sell:
    Saving Mr. Banks makes Laremy’s Top Ten of 2013 [Alex]
    Playing The Percentages:
    % chance Gravity wins Best Picture: Drama at the 2014 Golden
    Globes [Alex]

  • http://moviereviewninja.com themoviewatcher

    90% on RT for The Wolf of Wall Street [themoviewatcher]
    70% on RT for Grudge Match [themoviewatcher]
    75% on RT for The Secret Life of Walter Mitty [themoviewatcher]

    Brad has yet to see his favorite movie of the year [themoviewatcher]

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Fox/ Fox

    Regarding GoodTweets drops, there might be some use for this:

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Corbin/ Corbin

    Laremy, one reason Ender's Game isn't doing well internationally is because it hasn't opened in most overseas countries. It opens in most in January.

    • http://www.film.com/author/laremy-legel Laremy Legel

      This makka me happy.

    • robotsrule

      It opens in most in January. Where it will also bomb. :)

      • http://www.film.com/author/laremy-legel Laremy Legel


    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/bcf26/ bcf26

      I hope it makes money overseas. It's a good interpretation from the book. I love both the book and the movie.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AndrewJ.S./ Andrew J.S.

    Question: Even though Her has been picking up some steam over the last week or so, why doesn't Joaquin Phoenix seem to to be much of a contender in the best actor race? [Andrew J.S.]

  • Mitch

    To be honest, the /filmcast has gotten utterly unlistenable in the last 6 months or so, I don't know if you guys really want to hear that seeing as Laremy is on there occasionally. I listened to them A lot before, but it's just David and Devindra, talking back and forth, they both sound like they hate each other, and Devindra goes on huge, long tangents about movies and tv shows that no one is watching. It's great to give a recommendation, but we don't need a full fledged review in the middle of a conversation. IT's gotten really bad, I'm so happy I found you guys, saved me.

  • Mitch

    Okay, I know it will never happen, but lets say The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug barely makes any money, like 150 million. Everyone saw the first, hated it, and barely anyone turned out for the second. Would they still release the third? because it's already been filmed right?

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      Yeah, it's already been filmed and they would definitely release it, but that would be one hell of an odd scenario.

    • m1

      Of course they would release the third. Why wouldn't they, even in that scenario?

      • Mitch

        I guess in my situation I'm saying if the third one hadn't been made yet, say people turn out in droves for the first, realize it's bad, they make the sequel, no one really goes, so they don't make a third. Obviously the situation at hand is a completely different situation because the thirds already finished, but even still, in my hypothetical situation, if the second doesn't make money, what would they do with the third? I'm sure they would release it but what would the marketing be like? would it be straight to DVD? I guess I'm just saying in a normal situation, if a film doesn't make money it doesn't get a sequel, but we all know Smaug's gunna make money. .

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

          The key here is to realize neither the first Hobbit "film" or the second are actually movies on their own. You can't make the first without the second or the third so it's sort of an impossible question and the main reason the "movies" stink.

          • Mitch

            I agree, should have just been one movie. Just a completely hypothetical situation I was thinking about, Thanks.

  • Mitch

    4 more weeks Brad uses the Smaug drop before he gets sick of and stops using it. [Mitch]

    Both Brad and Laremy knew that Robert Duvall played Boo Radley in the 1962 movie To Kill a Mockingbird [Mitch] (I just watched it and didn't know)
    Kate Winslet wins an Oscar in the next 15 years [Mitch]
    Lone Survivor makes MORE than I, Frankenstein [Mitch] (both released in January)
    2014 is a better year for movies than 2015 [Mitch]
    2013 was a better year for movies than 2012 [Mitch}

    Playing Dem Percents:
    The % himself or others call him just Frankenstein instead of Frankensteins monster in I, Frankenstein. [Mitch]

    Where did Laremy get the name Bugsy, I ask because My fiancee and I bought a puppy and I named him Bugsy... She doesn't know where I got the name because if I told her it's the name of a guys dog from one a movie podcast, she would roll her eyes heavily.

    • http://www.film.com/author/laremy-legel Laremy Legel

      I'll answer on the pod too, but Bugsy, (and feel free to also use the nickname "Bugsy Maloney Baloney") was his given name on his adoption papers. We got him off the euthanasia list when he was two, fully named.

      Your little guy looks like he will be super fun, pls tell your fiancee there's a proud lineage to the Bugsy clan. Oh, and "Bugs" for short will definitely be your go-to. Trust me on that one.

      • Mitch

        We've only had him for three days now, and today is the first time I called him bugs and for the first time realized the Looney Tunes connection.

        I doubt I'll use the name Bugsy Maloney Baloney, but I may, seeing as everyone I run into seems know of this 1976 musical I had never heard of. Mad respect for getting him off the Euthanasia list, You're a good guy no matter what Brad says, Our Bugsy was a rescue and we couldn't be happier.
        P.S. I am all over this comment section, people are going to think I am stark raving mad.

        • http://www.film.com/author/laremy-legel Laremy Legel

          I was gonna say just tell her "Bugsy Malone" based on Bugsy Siegel if it helps out.

  • http://www.the-back-row.com Magill Foote

    - A- for Muppets Most Wanted
    - B+ for Godzilla

    Buy or Sell:
    - Best Adapted Screenplay nomination for The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
    - The 300 franchise gets a third instalment
    - 200 uses of the word "Fuck" in the movie Bad Words

    - % RT score for Need for Speed
    - % of X-Men: Days of Future Past in which Hugh Jackman appears shirtless

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/JonSullivan/ Jon Sullivan

    Listener Question:

    1) In your opinion , how much of an actor's reputation as a skilled
    performer is due to which directors he or she is able to work with?
    Before breaking out, Bryan Cranston was best known for 'Malcolm in the
    Middle' and Jennifer Lawrence was once on a terrible sitcom with Bill
    Engvall. Had someone just seen these two shows, it seems hard to believe
    that either would get credit as being a talented actor. [Jon Sullivan]

    2) What recourse does a studio have if a critic breaks embargo and review a film early? Will it refuse to invite the critic to future screenings it puts on? [Jon Sullivan]

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Hrtn4Sqrtn/ Hrtn4Sqrtn

    Great episode BnL!!!! The non-review/review of Hobbit: TDoS and the drops at the end were awesome.

    I started saying Smmauuuggg in my circle of friends, who aren't that into movies, about 6 months ago. I was getting some strange looks. Within the last 3 months, every movie we have went to, and every time we see a preview on tv its all SSSSMMMMAAAUUUGGGG followed by giggles.

    Listener Q

    I know Laremy is into video games. Brad do you also enjoy video games? As a follow-up question, there are a lot of people in popular media that consider video games to not be art. What are BnL's thoughts on that? Do you guys see video games within the next 10 years supplanting movies/tv as the dominant form of storytelling and/or the most profitable?

    (Just finished Bioshock Infinite...definite recommend)

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/TheLastEquivocationofBrist/ TheLastEquivocationofBrist

      Yeah, if Bioshock: Infinite isn't art, then nothing is.

  • http://Cinemaborn.com Outlaw723

    Hey was just over at Laremy.com and watched him on the morning talk show and since he doesn't have a comment section over there I just wanted to tell him solid work and it was very entertaining to watch.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/TheLastEquivocationofBrist/ TheLastEquivocationofBrist

      I'd be interested to hear a little more about how that process works too (if it's not a secret). To Laremy: does the host choose which movies will be discussed, do you choose, or is it a collaboration? I was wondering if a morning show would ever ask you to come on and talk about a movie you hated haha

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Adu/ Adu

      I went there too...well done Laremy!

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Adu/ Adu

    Uh oh...so this means angry Brad and mad Laremy Hobbit bashing episode coming up Friday? Smaaaauuug never had a chance around these parts. I can't wait to see all the walking and running this Firday!! Mooooooovies!
    Brad you'll be happy to hear this, I have decided to drive an hour to go see All Is Lost this friday... hope it's worth the trip...throwing in Hobbit and Out of the Furnace to make the drive worthwhile...surely not all of those can be bad :)

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/TheLastEquivocationofBrist/ TheLastEquivocationofBrist

      All in one day? I salute you.

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Adu/ Adu

        Yeah I do these personal 'butt-numb-a-thons' once a year around this time of year. I live in a small town which requires me to travel 45min to an hour to watch some of the smaller later year movies...so once I make that journey I make the most of it in this way. Of course, I am alone on this journey, my friends and wife wont even entertain the thought...it is draining once all is said and done, but I enjoy it immensely.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      Hopefully once you read my review and hear our comments, you'll understand it isn't bashing as much as it is sadness.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Nardog/ Nardog

    I kinda want a "Definitely do do!" drop by Laremy from the last episode 11m15s.

  • http://www.the-back-row.com Magill Foote

    Austin Powers: International Master of Mystery has plenty of clips of Dr. Evil saying "Number Two". You could either have Dr. Evil say "His name is Number Two", or Austin Powers saying "Who does Number Two work for?"

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      Ah ha, great call.

  • TheOneWhoKnocks

    Listener Question:
    What are some of the worst holiday movies you have ever seen, and what are your Christmas movie staples? (I'm referring to the kinds of Christmas movies you just have to watch at least once a year.) [TheOneWhoKnocks]

    1. 10.5 times Brad uses the "Smaug!" drop on Friday's podcast [TheOneWhoKnocks]
    2. 80% on RT for "The Monuments Men" [TheOneWhoKnocks]
    3. 3.5 boxes, bags, or other containers of cookies Laremy eats in a month [TheOneWhoKnocks]

    Buy or Sell:
    1. One of you will see one of your favorite movies of 2014 in February.[TheOneWhoKnocks]
    2. Laremy will drink hot cocoa at least twice before December ends. [TheOneWhoKnocks]
    3. Brad can name the prime minister of Belize. [TheOneWhoKnocks]

    Playing the Percentages:
    1. % chance Laremy goes caroling this year [TheOneWhoKnocks]
    2. % chance Brad ever adds a TV section to Rope of Silicon [TheOneWhoKnocks]
    3. % chance Brad ever returns to Rotten Tomatoes [TheOneWhoKnocks]

    Watch This, Watch That: Worst Movies of 2013 Edition
    1. "Movie 43" or "A Good Day to Die Hard" [TheOneWhoKnocks]
    2. "After Earth" or "Aftershock" [TheOneWhoKnocks]
    3. "The Host" or "Scary Movie V" [TheOneWhoKnocks]
    4. "Getaway" or "Paranoia" [TheOneWhoKnocks]

  • http://www.scifiblock.com John D.

    -One of you takes A Haunted House 2 in the next draft, thus creating another classic drop. [John D.]

    Playing Dem %s:
    --% of people excited for the new Godzilla movie based on the trailer that don't know how good the 1998 version looked at first too. [John D.]

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/chewbaca38/ Baca

    Over/Under 82 Mariner wins with purchase of Cano.

  • Mykael

    Over/under -
    3.5 Oscar noms fro Her. [Mykael]

    Playing 'em Percents -
    Alex Ebert's Original Score for All is Lost is nominated for Oscars. [Mykael]

  • Reece Keusch

    A by Laremy for The Wolf of Wall Street [Reece]
    Buy or Sell:
    The Wolf of Wall Street makes Brad's Top 5 of 2013 [Reece]
    Playing The Percentages:
    % chance The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug is nominated for Best Action Movie at the Critics Choice Awards [Reece]

  • The AlmostFilmCritic

    Play the Percentages
    % chance Oprah wins SAG strictly because she's Oprah. [AlmostFilmCritic]

  • http://letterboxd.com/gman/ G-Man

    You guys have touched on this question before I believe, but I'm asking anyways...

    How do you review a movie that you don't feel was made for someone like you to enjoy? I just got back from seeing Nebraska tonight and didn't really like it at all. When I say "not like", I don't mean it in the way of not enjoying "12 Years A Slave" because of intense subject matter, I mean I was bored. However, I don't think anything was overtly wrong with the movie. Its plot, jokes, and characters just didn't click with me and it led to an overall poor moviegoing experience.

    Enjoy your vacation, Brad!

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/the%20colleague/ the colleague

    Re-examining the topic you've discussed before.

    “Some of this actually happened.” Would more movies based around actual events receive less scrutiny if, instead of starting with "based on a true story," they started akin to American Hustle? Would people be more inclined to just go along for the ride, accepting the basis of it is factual but not the entirety, thus getting rid of tiring debates about how much of it was actually true?

    It also reminded me of the end credits for Adaptation., where it's stated how... "This story is based upon actual events. However, some of the characters and incidents portrayed and some of the names herein are fictitious..." Is the movie as effective and enjoyable for the general audience if they don't think all of it happened? [the colleague]

    - 5.5 dwarves an average moviegoer can name after watching SMAUGGGGG! [the colleague]