Box Office Predictions

Box-Office: 'Oz the Great and Powerful' is the Only Game in Town, but How Much Will It Make?

One 3D film to rule them all this weekend

Weekend Box-Office Predictions

Oz the Great and PowerfulOz the Great and Powerful will dominate the weekend, putting up something in the vicinity of a $70 million dollar win on an opening weekend hovering around $85 million, which is what I predict it will hit. Still, with a production budget reportedly around $200 million ($325 with marketing costs) they'll need $250 million each from domestic and international markets to lock in profits.

The comp everyone is throwing around is Alice in Wonderland which put up a billion dollars worldwide, though with twice as much cash being generated overseas. As such, if Oz the Great and Powerful hits $250 million here then one could predict a saucy $750 million cume worldwide ($250 million + $500 million). 3D dollars are another reason for the Mouse House to think big - though perhaps the three years that have passed since Alice in Wonderland have soured audiences on the method? This weekend will be a big test for 3D and Oz the Great and Powerful, though the film itself has smooth demographic sailing through March 22 (The Croods).

As we look down the board, please stifle your yawns. The only other wide new release of the weekend is Dead Man Down - it looks, for all intents and purposes, to be left for dead by FilmDistrict as they pour all of their marketing dollars into Olympus Has Fallen instead. The tracking is at $6 million for Dead Man Down and we'll all be counting our pennies to hit the number exactly, though I'm going slightly higher at $6.5 million with my prediction.

Emperor is getting less than 300 theaters and shouldn't be much of a factor and I don't even have it in the top ten.

The biggest dipper of the weekend should be Jack the Giant Slayer at 55 percent, though 21 and Over won't be too far behind. Other than that, it's a pretty typical, slow March weekend, but anyone out there who can hit Oz the Great and Powerful on the nose will have my eternal respect. Which means, you guessed it, predictions away!

Current Streak: Five weekends in a row.
Chances of Streak Being Broken: Zero percent.
Reason: Even if Oz The Great and Powerful completely tanks there's no way it can tank hard enough to finish second.

Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
Oz the Great and Powerful: $75 million
Dead Man Down: $6 million

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We'll have the actual counts in Sunday's wrap-up article.

Laremy's Box-Office Predictions for March 8 - March 10, 2013

  1. Oz the Great and Powerful was #1 at the box-office
  2. Jack the Giant Slayer () - $12.2 million
    Playing in 3,525 theaters ($3,461 avg.) / $195 million budget / 52%
  3. Identity Thief () - $6.6 million
    Playing in 3,222 theaters ($2,048 avg.) / $35 million budget / 20%
  4. Dead Man Down () - $6.5 million
    Playing in 2,175 theaters ($2,989 avg.) / 38%
  5. Silver Linings Playbook () - $5 million
    Playing in 2,012 theaters ($2,485 avg.) / $21 million budget / 92%
  6. Escape from Planet Earth () - $4.2 million
    Playing in 3,353 theaters ($1,253 avg.) / $40 million budget
  7. The Last Exorcism Part II () - $4.1 million
    Playing in 2,600 theaters ($1,577 avg.) / $5 million budget / 13%
  8. 21 and Over () - $4 million
    Playing in 2,771 theaters ($1,444 avg.) / $13 million budget / 29%
  9. Snitch () - $3.7 million
    Playing in 2,511 theaters ($1,474 avg.) / 57%
  10. Safe Haven () - $3.3 million
    Playing in 2,400 theaters ($1,375 avg.) / $28 million budget / 13%
Click here to browse our box-office charts and compare Laremy's predictions
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  • Arthur Carlson

    1. Oz, The Great and Powerful - $82.5M I'm going big, only because it feels that we are aching for an event film.

    2. Jack the Giant Slayer - $13.2M

    3. Identity Thief - $6.4M

    4. Dead Man Down - $5.2M

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Corbin/ Corbin

    1. Oz: The Great and Powerful: 91.4 million
    2. Jack the Giant Slayer: 18.8 million
    3. Identity Thief: 6.5 million
    4. Dead Man Down: 5.7 million
    5. 21 and Over: 5.3 million

  • JunJunm3

    I'm going higher for Oz. The landscape is just begging for a big film with blockbuster appeal. I think it will generate "We got to see that" kind of excitement.

    1.Oz- 92.7mil
    2.Jack the Giant Slayer- 12.5mil

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

    Well, I've never done this before but here it goes

    1. Oz: The Great and Powerful - $80.7 Million
    2. Jack the Giant Slayer - $12.9 million
    3. Dead Man Down - $6.3 million
    4. Identity Thief - $6.1 million
    5. Silver Linings Playbook - 4.8 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/coltonhaynes22/ coltonhaynes22

    Im going a little higher for oz and dead man down just because we need a big tentpole release after the last two months and dead man down looks and is tracking decent.

    1. Oz: The Great and Powerful- $91.3 million
    2. Jack the Giant Slayer- $13.4 million
    3. Dead Man Down- $8.5 million
    4. Identity Thief- $5.9 million
    5. 21 and Over- $5.4 million
    6. Silver Linings Playbook- $5.1 million
    7. Escape from Planet earth- $4.0 million
    8. The Last Exorcism Part 2- $3.6 million
    9. Snitch- $3.3 million
    10. Safe Haven- $2.9 million

  • david

    What!!!!!! You are all on crack dead man down will not do only 6milion opening weekend with all the buzz its getting I'm predicting 15-20 million you guys are crazy

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

      It doesn't have enough broad appeal, and it's rated R.

    • Movie Fan

      What buzz I only heard it from WWE and critics on rotten tomato have it at 40% rotten

  • david

    Oz the dumb and stupid will only do 50million all of you are underestimating all the buzz for dead man down on the internets sites and word mouth that's why I'm saying 15-20 million for dead man down if it does 6 million I will put myself on YouTube eating my sweaty smelly socks that's how confident I am about the big weekend dead man down will have

    • david

      What does rated r have to do with it it doesn't have broad appeal? Do you understand all the hype it is getting last time a movie had this kind of buzz was the first paranormal activity we all remember how that did at the box office and plus don't underestimatevince McMahon all the hype the WWE has been doin on this movie

  • http://usbopredictions2013.blogspot.com/ Mario

    Oz the Great and Powerful -- 81,9 mln (3900 cinemas, $21000 per cinema)
    Dead Man Down -- 9,49 mln (2600 cinemas, $3650 per cinema)

    • david

      9million it will do more than that I'm tellin you 15-20 million this movie has all the buzz goin for it the midnight showing at the theater near my house is already sold out!!!!!!!!

      • anp

        David are you the producer of the movie or something ?

  • Jaylav3205

    Oz- 81.6 mil
    Jack- 15.2 mil
    Deadman down- 5.3 mil

    • david

      5.3 million your on drugs!!!!!!!!

      • adu

        David man, take it easy. As 'The Dude' once said...
        'Well, yeah, that's like, your opionion, man'

      • Jaylav3205

        I simply thought of this number because of broken city's 9.5 mil on its opening 3 day weekend. I think Marky Mark and Russell Crowe are bigger draws then Colin Farrell and Terrance Howard. Maybe that's just me and that is fine with me. I am entitled to my own opinion and you are to but that is why there is a place to comment and a place to reply. Don't just come on here and reply to my opinion and say I'm on drugs, just because I disagree with your opinion. Have I ever replied to your comment on any subject matter ever? No. Everybody is entitled to there opinion and I expressed mine and u did to. By the way since you seem to think I am on drugs, I just thought I'd let you know that I am actually on drugs. I currently am taking Percocet, tramadol and lortab. So I guess a "good call" on your part.

  • CJohn

    Oz The Great and Powerful - 102.2M
    Dead Man Down - 4.9M

    • david

      Your high to you people amaze me just because some idiot sits in front of a computer says this movie is gonna do 90million and this movie is goin to do 6 million you think its true how pathetic letting the media control you like little robots telling you what to go see

      • adu

        Ok, so how much is the WWE paying you to do this rant?

        • david

          Nothing this is me passionate about a movie and expressing my opinion

  • Chris Etrata

    Oz: 94.3 million
    Dead Man Down: 4.6 million

  • Austin G.

    Oz The Great and Powerful - $80.2 million
    Dead Man Down - $9.4 million

  • Movie Fan

    Oz the Great and Powerful: $72.8 million
    Dead Man Down: $7.7 million

  • http://letterboxd.com/gman/ G-Man

    1) Oz: The Great and Powerful $100.0 million
    2) Jack The Giant Slayer $9.0 million
    3) Dead Man Down $8.5 million
    4) 21 and Over $6.9 million
    5) Safe Haven $5.0 million

    • david

      8.5 ad another 7 million to that figure

  • david

    We will see on Sunday when the numbers come out ill be the one saying I told you so!!!!!

    • http://www.twitter.com/GregDinskisk GregDinskisk

      And we'll ALL keep that on Monday... tomorrow during #GoodComments...

      • david

        Whats that mean?

        • http://www.twitter.com/GregDinskisk GregDinskisk

          Listen to the podcast tomorrow.

  • Winchester

    I haven't done a prediction for a while but since Oz is the first real tentpole of the year may as well throw in a coin.

    Oz - $87.1 million (though probably there is scope for $10 million or so in either direction). Although the Alice comp is understandable and reasonable it was coasting on the success of 'Avatar' when it came out in terms of 3D so unless audiences have felt sufficiently starved it won't open or close anywhere near as big. If it can open in the 80's then north of $200 million is likely a given and it should have wide appeal internationally. Probably when all is said and done it will make enough to justify the price tag, without hitting Alice levels.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Exxdee/ Geoffrey De Leon

    1) Oz. 86.5 million
    2) Dead Man Down 13.5 million
    3) Jack the Giant Slayer 10 million
    4) Identity Thief 7.5 million
    5) Silver Linings Playbook 5.5 million

    • david

      Finally someone who agrees with me about dead man down I still say 15 million

  • Painkiller

    Well, its the start of march break in canada and our weekend totals are added together so I'm going for broke.

    1) Oz- 106 million
    2) Jack -- 21 million (people will go when Oz is soldout)
    3) Dead Man Down 12 million (over perform) Really looking forward to dead man down and this weekend is a total guessing game. Remember Alice in Wonderland the estimates were mainly 45-50 million did like 116 m. This has that look and a huge brand name..could go vey high.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lawhs89/ lawhs89

      So what if s showing of OZ sells out, they will have another showing half an hour later. AMC 30 in KC list 33 showtimes today.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lawhs89/ lawhs89

      EW said it best, movies have been so bad this year, even a bad kids flick like Escape from Planet Earth has made $44M. Perfect time to open.

      And David...just because you love a movie does not make it a hit. It is the movie I will see this weekend.

  • david

    I don't agree it will overperform I think it will gross 15-20 million this weekend

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Corbin/ Corbin

      Yes. We know.

  • Marc

    Oz 98 million
    Jack 15 million
    Dead Man Down 4.5 million

    • david

      4.5 million your right that's what it will do on Friday on its way to a 15.3 million weekend

  • Pockets O’tool

    Oz - 67.3m
    Jack - 11m
    Dead Man Down - 6.2m

    • david

      I agree with the oz number but dead man down 6.2 milion no way try about 15.3million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/andyluvsfilms/ andyluvsfilms

    I haven't done this before so I shall simply think of a number and double it

    Oz - 87

    Jack - 12.3

    Identify Thief - 6.8

    Dead Man Down - 6.5

    peace

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Will-E/ Will-E

    Oz - 71.5
    Giant Slayer - 16
    Dead Man Down - 10
    Identity Thief - 7
    Snitch - 5
    Silver Linings - 4.75
    21 and Over - 4.5
    Last Exorcism - 4.25
    Planet Earth - 4
    Safe Haven - 3.5

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Tom/ Tom

    Oz. - 70.5
    Dead Man Down - 1.5

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Travis/ Travis

      You said that 1.5 for david, didn't you?

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Tom/ Tom

        Yeah, I'm surprised he didn't take the bait.

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Travis/ Travis

          He left. He didn't like getting "picked on."

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Fox/ Fox

    Guys, david is going to see Dead Man Down at least a million times this weekend, so there's a solid 12 million right there

    • david

      Yes iam and your mom is coming with me

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Fox/ Fox

        Well if she likes it as much as you then that's 24 million! I always thought it had Avatar-like potential anyway. . .

        • david

          And your dads coming to that's 36million see between the 3 of us that's almost as much as oz the dumb and the stupid will make

          • http://cineenuruguay.blogspot.com/ Driver

            Thank god is Friday. #GoodComments

  • http://cineenuruguay.blogspot.com/ Driver

    Oz - 65.4
    Dead Man down - 3.5

  • david

    1.oz 5. 1.3 million.
    2.dead man down 15.3 million
    3.Jack the giant slated 12.5

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/JeremyBaril/ JeremyBaril

    I'm going out on a limb with this one.

    Oz the Great and Powerful - $97.4 million
    Dead Man Down - $5.8 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

    Brad, are you getting this? This David guy is #goodcomments gold.

    • Jaylav3205

      Agreed

      • david

        Agreed with what?

    • david

      Im gold? What's that mean just I'm making a prediction I have a right to predict what I want will see who is right on Monday?

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

        But you are CONSTANTLY talking about "Dead Man Down gets more money" "Dead Man Down best movie EVAR." It's funny, and absolutely ridiculous.
        And you're replying to everyone telling them to change their predictions.

        And, If you are actually trying to promote Dead Man Down, I can assure you that most people on this site will NOT see it due to your comments.

  • bill

    can we ban david yet?

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

      I don't see why not.

      • david

        Ban me for what? Have I used abusive language no because I'm stating my opinion and you don't like it so you want me banned? That's real mature you made a prediction on here to so should they ban you? So on this site you wannabe someone if they don't have the same opinion as you?

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

          Well, you've accused people of drug abuse, just based on their predictions. Just because your opinion is different from everyone else's, doesn't mean you should go around trying to convince people that your idea is right.

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Adu/ Adu

          opinions ia one thing, being an annoying douche is another.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

      Actually, on second thought, I say we keep him.

      This is kind of entertaining.

      • david

        Grow up and act like an adult

    • Jaylav3205

      I say we keep him because is amusing. I just think it is funny how he thinks we are all crazy and he is the one that thinks a movie is going to make 3 times what the tracking is for it. I could see it if everybody was jumping on his case but that isn't the case. I like how he didn't respond to what I said. Everybody has an opinion and they should be heard, even if they are crazy comments. I say we keep him

      • david

        So the tracking is right so it says its goin to make 6million let me ask you something how much was Jack the giant slayer on track to make last week? Wasn't it like 35 mil how much did it make 12 mil oh ok the tracking is always right you win

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/maja/ maja

          This may be pointless but i'm pretty sure that Jack did not earn $12m last weekend...

  • gerberzy

    Oz- 79.8 million
    Dead Man- 6.0 million

  • david

    I'm not trying to get to change their predictions we are having a healthy debate about movies there's nothing wron with that the drug comment is a figure of speech

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

      A debate implies a conversation.

      But this whole thing is ridiculous.

      • david

        Your right it is ridiculous I'm goin to awards daily over there you make any comment you want and people don't cry about it

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

          I was going to say something along the lines of: "you're the one complaining about everyone predicting Dead Man Down to not make much"

          But, I'm ending this "conversation"

          It's pointless

  • Topyxyz

    Oz is going to be a bust...$48.5M.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Cordia/ Cordia

    oz 81 million
    Dead man down 5,8 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Andrew13/ Andrew13

    1. Oz the Great and Powerful - $86.1 million
    2. Jack the Giant Slayer - $11.6 million
    3. Dead Man Down - $9.8 million
    4. Identity Thief - $6.6 million
    5. Silver Linings Playbook - $5.1 million
    6. Snitch - $4.2 million
    7. Safe Haven - $3.7 million
    8. 21 and Over - $3.4 million
    9. Escape from Planet Earth - $3.3 million
    10. The Last Exorcism Part II - $2.9 million

  • denis

    i kinda agree with david, i think dead man down will do better than expected. 10 to 13 million will take it out of the flop catagory, and not every one wants to see a childrens film, could be the next taken

  • http://www.twitter.com/GregDinskisk GregDinskisk

    Wow, I agree with David!!! It's (do I even need to name it?) is going to easily break the $100 million mark this weekend!!!! Naoomi Rapace? Colin Farrell? Are there BIGGER box-office draws?

    Answer to my rhetorical question: No, no there is not.

  • Jaylav3205

    Hey David, I just thought I would let you know that deadman down made 1.8 on Friday. It might not even hit my prediction of 5.3. So I think we now all know you have to make this YouTube video you promised all of us

    • david

      1.8m? that's crap looks like I better start making that video :)

      • david

        We will have better numbers on Saturday and Sunday now just hoping we will get to 6mil this film will do better overseas well guess WWE has to rely on the call next weekend

      • Jaylav3205

        Cool share the link on here. Thanks

  • david

    Hey guys I got something to confess!!!!!! I work for the WWE I work their public relations dept WWE told me to monitor sights to make sure there was no negative feedback about the movie because we invested heavily in producing this movie anthe callthe callthe call

    • Jaylav3205

      We kind of figured you did

      • david

        Yeah WWE films is trying to become a major player that's why we invested heavily in producing this film and the call and why we worked with major actors

    • Jaylav3205

      By the way what's with all !'s. Is that required by wwe? I don't think any of the people who commented on this article were trying be negative about deadman down. We were all being realistic.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Snicket/ Justin

      Did they ask you to make sure you sounded like an angry 13 year old?

      • david

        No they didn't I went a bit overboard I apologize for my behavior

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/maja/ maja

      If this is true (and i highly doubt it is) that you work for the WWE then I can see why their product has declined so much over the last 10 years. You'd think they would at least hire people who can use proper grammar and can spell.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/andyluvsfilms/ andyluvsfilms

    public relations??!! *spits out coffee* ;-)

  • Jack

    Well...that escalated quickly...

  • Bradley

    David was fantastic. Is it bad that I kinda want him to be right?

  • Jaylav3205

    Hey brad, is this the most comments on an article that was not a live blod or a discussion piece? It's got to be a record for box office oracle. Right?