Oz the Great and Powerful will dominate the weekend, putting up something in the vicinity of a $70 million dollar win on an opening weekend hovering around $85 million, which is what I predict it will hit. Still, with a production budget reportedly around $200 million ($325 with marketing costs) they'll need $250 million each from domestic and international markets to lock in profits.
The comp everyone is throwing around is Alice in Wonderland which put up a billion dollars worldwide, though with twice as much cash being generated overseas. As such, if Oz the Great and Powerful hits $250 million here then one could predict a saucy $750 million cume worldwide ($250 million + $500 million). 3D dollars are another reason for the Mouse House to think big - though perhaps the three years that have passed since Alice in Wonderland have soured audiences on the method? This weekend will be a big test for 3D and Oz the Great and Powerful, though the film itself has smooth demographic sailing through March 22 (The Croods).
As we look down the board, please stifle your yawns. The only other wide new release of the weekend is Dead Man Down - it looks, for all intents and purposes, to be left for dead by FilmDistrict as they pour all of their marketing dollars into Olympus Has Fallen instead. The tracking is at $6 million for Dead Man Down and we'll all be counting our pennies to hit the number exactly, though I'm going slightly higher at $6.5 million with my prediction.
Emperor is getting less than 300 theaters and shouldn't be much of a factor and I don't even have it in the top ten.
The biggest dipper of the weekend should be Jack the Giant Slayer at 55 percent, though 21 and Over won't be too far behind. Other than that, it's a pretty typical, slow March weekend, but anyone out there who can hit Oz the Great and Powerful on the nose will have my eternal respect. Which means, you guessed it, predictions away!
Current Streak: Five weekends in a row.
Chances of Streak Being Broken: Zero percent.
Reason: Even if Oz The Great and Powerful completely tanks there's no way it can tank hard enough to finish second.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
Oz the Great and Powerful: $75 million
Dead Man Down: $6 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We'll have the actual counts in Sunday's wrap-up article.
Laremy's Box-Office Predictions for March 8 - March 10, 2013
- Jack the Giant Slayer (New Line Cinema) - $12.2 million
Playing in 3,525 theaters ($3,461 avg.) / $195 million budget / 52%
- Identity Thief (Universal Pictures) - $6.6 million
Playing in 3,222 theaters ($2,048 avg.) / $35 million budget / 20%
- Dead Man Down (FilmDistrict) - $6.5 million
Playing in 2,175 theaters ($2,989 avg.) / 38%
- Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Co.) - $5 million
Playing in 2,012 theaters ($2,485 avg.) / $21 million budget / 92%
- Escape from Planet Earth (The Weinstein Co.) - $4.2 million
Playing in 3,353 theaters ($1,253 avg.) / $40 million budget
- The Last Exorcism Part II (CBS Films) - $4.1 million
Playing in 2,600 theaters ($1,577 avg.) / $5 million budget / 13%
- 21 and Over (Relativity Media) - $4 million
Playing in 2,771 theaters ($1,444 avg.) / $13 million budget / 29%
- Snitch (Summit Entertainment) - $3.7 million
Playing in 2,511 theaters ($1,474 avg.) / 57%
- Safe Haven (Relativity Media) - $3.3 million
Playing in 2,400 theaters ($1,375 avg.) / $28 million budget / 13%