Oscar Update: The Preferential Vote of the Big Ten and Complete Predictions
Which film will be the voters' #1 and will it win?
Photo: The Weinstein Co. / Universal Pictures
I have been holding on to this story for a while now seeing how I knew my personal predictions wouldn't be changing much in the weeks leading up to the big show on March 7. The topic is preferential voting and several outlets have taken a stab at explaining it, breaking it down and others are being quoted as saying it will be what ensures their film an Oscar night Best Picture victory. So, in an effort to make sure you know what the preferential voting system is and why it has Harvey Weinstein telling Pete Hammond, "We're going to win best picture," I decided no better time than now to break it all down and give you the complete word around the web.
This year, the conversation primarily got started when Steve Pond at TheWrap.com posted a complete and detailed breakdown of the voting system. While his article makes it all very simple to understand, USA Today's team made it even easier with a Flash animation showing the vote tally process at work.
The voting is simple, the 6,000 member Academy are each given a ballot with ten lines on it, numbered 1-10 and they are asked to rank the ten Best Picture nominees in order of preference, #1 obviously being their favorite. The votes are tabulated not by computer, but by hand sorting them in stacks based on all the #1 votes. From that point on films are eliminated from the tenth spot moving upward and reshuffled based on those ballots' #2 vote, technically giving each Academy member only one vote. This process continues until one film has greater than 50% of the vote (3,001 votes).
I can understand how reading that may be a bit confusing, but if you keep that in consideration and visit USA Today's page you will understand the process in a matter of seconds rather than attempting to sort it out here.
To the left are screen captures taken from that animation providing a small look at the four steps featured, which results in the film that received the largest amount of number 2 votes taking home the Best Picture prize, which is one of the reasons you've heard me saying most recently how I don't believe Avatar is the front-runner so many claim it to be and why I think Inglourious Basterds is slowly creeping up on the field.
Harvey is certainly convinced, adding to his quote to Pete Hammond saying, "Look, best director may be a question — and you can quote me on that — but we won the SAG award for best ensemble, actors are the biggest branch in the Academy and they love the movie."
Just take into consideration the scenario, if Avatar or The Hurt Locker does end up number one on many Academy voters' ballots, what film is likely to be number two or even number three? My guess is Basterds, and based on the voting process and the famous Weinstein influence, I would not at all be surprised should Tarantino's film get the top spot. On top of that, just how great would it be to have the announcement "And the winner for Best Picture is… Inglourious Basterds!" shouted and ringing through Oscar history? I can hear the negative phone calls from the Midwest right now. The title alone makes the film worthy of a win for me.
If you want more on the preferential voting scenario, here are some additional pieces: Vanity Fair, Movieline, Notes on a Season, The Wrap and In Contention. And if you were wondering if this will be a one year trial for the 10 Best Picture nominees, guess again as Academy President Tom Sherak told The Wrap, "I don't know if it's a success yet, but so far, yes, we're happy. I don't think there's any question about that. So far. And I expect we'll do it for another year."
All that said, I'm still sticking with The Hurt Locker as my Best Picture winner thanks to Kathryn Bigelow's Directors Guild Win and the film's win with the Producers Guild among other contributing factors. It is followed by Inglourious Basterds and Avatar, in that order.
As far as any actual changes in my predictions go, there were only two as I moved George Clooney (Up in the Air) into the number two slot and moved Colin Firth (A Single Man) to number three in the Best Actor race. However, both actors are still behind Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) who is now what I would call a mortal lock for the win. I had a similar move in the Best Director race as well, moving Tarantino into the number two slot and James Cameron down to number three with Bigelow still my favorite to win.
Here is my current breakdown for all the categories:
- Best Picture: The Hurt Locker (chart)
- Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (chart)
- Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (chart)
- Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (chart)
- Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds (chart)
- Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique, Precious (chart)
- Best Animated Feature Film: Up
- Best Art Direction: Sherlock Holmes
- Best Cinematography: Inglourious Basterds (perhaps the hardest category for me)
- Best Costumes: The Young Victoria
- Best Documentary (feature): The Cove
- Best Film Editing: Avatar
- Best Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon
- Best Makeup: Star Trek
- Best Music (Original Score): Up
- Best Music (Original Song): "The Weary Kind" from Crazy Heart
- Best Sound Editing: Avatar
- Best Sound Mixing: The Hurt Locker
- Best Visual Effects: Avatar
- Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay): Up In the Air
- Best Writing (Original Screenplay): Inglourious Basterds
One category I was tempted to give both nods to The Hurt Locker was in sound. I've heard a lot of grumbling over the score for The Hurt Locker getting a nomination, but you can't deny it's achievement in sound. However, I just can't see Avatar missing out on a sound win — at least not twice. That said I give you a look at the sound of Avatar courtesy of the Soundworks Collection, which also has online a 47-minute sound panel featuring James Cameron and the sound team from the film.
I have little confidence in my Foreign Language pick, but not having seen three of the contenders I have little else to go on and as I mention above, the Cinematography category is a crap shoot for me as I believe all five are worthy in some ways although I still would prefer to see one of my many alternatives selected over Avatar, a film that many are currently predicting to win the category. Perhaps I'm just not knowledgable enough in the use of the virtual camera in a digital world as employed by Cameron and his DP Mauro Fiore, but it just frustrates me to see Avatar nominated when a beautifully shot film such as WALL•E missed out last year. There is a double standard here that just doesn't sit well with me.
Additional Oscar contender news can be found in the RopeofSilicon "The Contenders" section.
Now it's your turn. What do you think out there? Speak up in the comments below and if you need a nominee refresher here's the link.
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@Brad- People are ingoring Basterds for Best Editing and Best Picture….i think it will clinch Best Editing…cmmn man Sally Menke deserves an Oscar..for the amount of work she has done with Quentin…and Basterds is good for the style of Editing….no one can forget the Pub Massacre sequence…it was like the short shoot out sequence of The Wild Bunch….and even it can pick up Best Picture….i have no prob with The Hurt Locker getting Best Director. But Film?? It has to be Basterds or Avatar…..
Sally Menke is amazing, but you have to judge on the merits of this year, not her accumulated, unrewarded achievements
But isn't that exactly what they are doing with Jeff Bridges?
I think lizzie is right and moreover Basterds looks good for its Editing….i think the whole stylization of the film depended heavily on Editing…No doubt The Hurt Locker is the Best stuff out there but still..Basterds should win in editing…
Doesn't it also tend to go that whoever wins Best Editing tends to win Best Picture. Also, Hurt Locker won the Eddie this year, so I'm voting Hurt Locker takes Best Picture and Best Editing.
I really don't understand the grumblings against Hurt Locker's score, I thought it was pretty good. Not a score for relaxing to on a Saturday or anything, but it reinforced the movie in very subtle ways–except for the end. It doesn't have a shot at winning, but the recognition is nice.
As for Best Picture, I'd be slightly disappointed if Basterds pulled off an upset for two reasons.
1-it was a good movie, but was it really his best or the best? I dunno. Not to me at least. I liked Pulp Fiction and Jackie Brown a lot more than this. (Which might be blasphemous to say on a site like this where the Tarantino fanboys lurk.)
2-I really don't want Weinstein waddling around Hollywood taking credit for the win. I have a feeling he will. In general, I don't like Weinstein. He seems like a big ass. It's getting to a point where he is overshadowing the film and the enthusiasm I have for it.
I know, right?
Agreed dude Basterds should win
You may be right about it not being Tarantinos best. But was The Departed Scorcese's best? There are tons of movies who have won oscars and are not that directors best, it's just how it works. Some years there are better movies than others and some movies don't get appreciated fully until a few years leter. This shouldn't stop IB winning and I hope it does.
That doesn't mean Inglourious Basterds doesn't deserve an Oscar! Because Quentin Tarantino said himself that this was his epic film. Disappointed hahahaha who are you kidding. His movie didn't Disappoint! And if you’re disappointed then you just don't know how to watch a great movie. You probably prefer what? The Blind Side or something that doesn't deserve to even be nominated for best picture! As far as I'm concern Quentin Tarantino's movie is more then deserving for Oscar!!!!
Oh God, "The White Ribbon" for Foreign Film…
I mean, that's what I'm going with, too. But I just have this feeling we'll both be wrong. Why? Because at least 2/3 of the time the Best Foreign Film Oscar is a WTF pick. Observe:
2008: We all thought it would be "Waltz With Bashir" or "The Class." It wasn't. It was "Departures," and had no way of knowing because it didn't come out until May 29th of 2009.
2006: "The Lives of Others" won over "Pan's Labyrinth." This was totally unmerited, but at least I can see the politics behind it. Probably the Academy was thinking: "Hmm, Pan's Labyrinth has six nominations, and it's going to win some of them [3, to be exact], whereas The Lives of Others only has 1 nomination for Foreign Film. But it's good enough that it deserves to win something. So we'll give Foreign Film to Lives and other awards to Pan." Totally screwed up, because "Pan's Labyrinth" should have won fair and square, even if it meant "The Lives of Others" getting no awards, but at least I can understand why it happened.
2004: "The Sea Inside" wins over "Downfall." Now, I wasn't following Oscars at this time, so I don't know how much of a surprise this was. I want to see both these films badly, but I don't know which is better. however, I've heard far more praise about Downfall simply because I think far more people have seen it. So it was probably something of a surprise when "The Sea Inside" got the win.
2002: "Nowhere in Africa" wins over "El Crimen de Padre Amaro" and "Hero."
2001: "No Man's Land" wins over "Amelie."
The list goes on. So many classic foreign films never won that Oscar. The statuette often goes to a film that NOBODY expects. And how could they, when two or three of them often aren't released until after the ceremony?
In conclusion, while I want to go with "The White Ribbon," or maybe "A Prophet," I feel both of them will be slighted for one of the other films. Of the other three, I'd like to go with "El Secret de Sus Ojos," because it has great IMDB ratings and was the #1 film in Argentina for the whole year. But now I'll no longer be surprised if "The Milk of Sorrow" or "Ajami" wins instead.
I will not accept The Hurt Locker for best picture. It's so overrated.
go IB, if Quentin loses here I wonder what his next picture to bring him into the race will be, if hell be overdue by then
I want Inglourious Basterds to win. The Hurt Locker is most likely, though.
Just got done watching Hurt Locker again and it is my favorite film of the year. A perfectly naturalistic, intense and unsompormising look at war through the POV of soldiers without the politicized and overtly over-bearing anti-war stance of other Iraq war movies. A sheer adreneline rush and an outstanding technical achievment for Bigelow and company that easilly topels the likes of Avatar or Transformers all with far less than a quarter-of a billion dollar budget. To to top it off it features a brilliant bravarau performance from Renner who embodies the effects of war as an addict of combat on front-line in midst of war. Simply put The Hurt Locker is the film that deserves to be called best picture of 2009.
With that being said the cynical part of me knows that Inglorious Basterds will likley be the film to not only win the top prize but also sweep its nominations due mostly to the politics behind it as opposed to the artistry involved in it. Not to put Tarantino's exceptional work down, but it is no where as deserving to me as the affore-mentioned feature.
What on GOD'S GREEN EARTH ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT are you F'N kidding me Quentin Taratino's film is more then deserving for an Oscar! His film is original and one of the most enjoyable movie to watch of the year! If he doesn't win anything I'd be piss!!!!
I am not doubting that it's entertaining or original but I feel that HL is a much stronger picture. Basterds is fun but it's enormously flawed and after watching it again I'm not as satisified of affected by it as I am by Bigelow's feature. Don't worry though, the way I see it now I think Waltz will get supporting actor and Hurt Locker will sweep most of it's awards including best pic.
I hope hurt locker doesnt win best picture, it was a good movie but not good enough for best picture. i didnt like avatar that much either, it was fun to watch but really its the story of john smith and pocahontas with blue people lol, best picture? no way. basterds, in my opinion was far better then the other two (story wise), but who cares the oscars are so political now that true quality gets pushed under the rug.
UP IN THE AIR. Enough said. I'm watching THE HURT LOCKER for the first time this weekend.
Just be sure to go in unbiased!
I actually watched The Hurt Locker yesterday. KNOCKOUT. Better than Slumdog Millionaire. If Kathryn Bigelow doesn't win best director, I will throw a glass of water at my TV. Just kidding. :)
Amen for Up in the Air. Easily the best screenplay since 2007.
Brad –
Don't give up on Renner. He's gaining huge traction.
Is this preferential voting system now used in all the categories or only the best picture one?
It would be quite unfair if a different voting system was used in different categories.
Only Best Picture, the rest of the categories are simply just "pick your favorite."
I can't believe Sandra Bullock could win. So many other actresses could have played the role, like Anne Hathaway, Julia Roberts, Rachel McAdams, Reese Witherspoon, Gwyneth Paltrow…the list goes on and on.
Also Brad, if you did get a vote for the Oscars (i'm not sure if you do?!), would you vote for IB or hurt locker as number 1? You put IB much higher in your 2009 list, but you appear to be rooting for the hurt locker which makes me believe that you think it's a technicaly better movie. So would you vote for your favorite or the best?
What if Up wins best picture due to a live action split vote?
Up will beat The Hurt Locker because Iraq is probably tiring everyone out already.
I would love to see Basterds (or "Inglourious" as the wimpy UK TV ads had it) win, but The Hurt Locker would also be a worthy winner. I enjoyed Avatar, but James Cameron's ego is probably insufferable enough to work with as it is!
Have to admit, I am sorry to see that you still have Sandra Bullock in the No. 1 spot. Having seen "The Blind Side," this past weekend, it amazes me that she scored a nomination, not to mention the film getting a Best Picture nod. Of course she was portraying a real person, but any of the genuine, effortless, ability to capture a character displayed in her past films, was completely absent in this characature put forth in the Blind Side. Cliches abound, rampant sentimentality, and if I hear Sandra Bullock avow one more time "I'm not going to win…."
sorry but i hope its not just me . I did not like Avatar > i do not think it deserves awards that its getting at all .
I was reading the Vanity Fair article and realized this system is still flawed. Lets say, even though UP would get very few votes for No.1 (putting it at the bottom) it could have the highest No.2 spot but because the majority of those No.2 are in the larger piles; they wont count and move down to No.3 because UP has already been eliminated.
That doesn't seem right.
Colin Firth just won Best British Actor at London Critics Circle awards last night…if he goes on to win the BAFTA this Sunday, I think that may move his chances up.
'A Single Man' should have made the Best Picture list-why did 'Up' make it?
Best Picture: Basterds
Best Director: Bigelowe
The White Ribbon is not going to win Best Foreign Film.
As I understand it, the rules on Foreign Film are different. In order to vote, you actually have to attend the screenings. So you can't just vote for the most prominent film, the one that one the Palme D'Or blah blah blah. You have to sit through all the films.
While some people like The White Ribbon, for many it it tedious, and easily one of Michael Haneke's least interesting films. After the first 45 minutes, it goes nowhere.
By all accounts, the French Film A Prophet is fabulous and riveting. When people sit through all the nominated films, the majority will be far more engaged by a Prophet, and that is the one that will get their votes, despite all the critical baggage that goes with The White Ribbon.
So the usual approach, which is often valid, that the film with the "buzz" will win in a category does not apply to Foreign Film. Mark your office ballots accordingly.
Why does everyone thing Basterds will win Best Editing????
I loved Basterds, and found it to be a total romp, and would be happy if it won Best Picture, but surely the two major accomplishments of The Hurt Locker, the two things that make it what it is, are the direction and the editing. These are the two things that make the Hurt Locker the tense and riveting film that it is. (and note — eidting is more than just the most number of cuts per minute.) I've rarely seen a film where editing was so integral to the achievement.
I am all for Quentin Taratino's Inglourious Basterds for best picture. But if the Hurt Locker win I'd be happy too that was one of the best film this year. But I don't want James Cameron to win because I think film wasn't all that good. And I was shock when James Cameron won the Golden Globe I thought Inglourious Basterds or the Hurt Locker would of won. But I be piss if Quentin Taratino doesn't win anything!!!! I mean if his film doesn't win any awards beside Best Supporting Actor.
Picture: basterds
Director: Bigelow
Editing: Hurt Locker
and VISUAL EFFECTS!!! I can't believe no one else is saying this
DISTRICT 9
There is not a doubt in my mind, the best visuals I have ever seen in a movie period.