Oscar Update: The Contenders Await… What's Ahead Over the Next Six Months?
From July to December there's still a lot to see
Last night I finally saw Christopher Nolan's Inception and as the positive reviews roll in and at least one less than positive opinion it would seem the time for more realistic Oscar talk has finally arrived.
Looking over the list of films that opened during the first six months of the year, films such as The Ghost Writer, Shutter Island and Cyrus will struggle mightily to carry on to the end of the year in anything other than the below-the-line categories. I don't see any of them scratching the surface of any of the major nominations. In fact, the only non-documentary films I see making any kind of waves come this year's Oscar push from the first six months of 2010 are Toy Story 3 and Winter's Bone.
Toy Story 3 is a sure-fire Feature Animation contender and potential Best Picture selection while Jennifer Lawrence seems like a strong contender for a Best Actress nomination and I wouldn't be surprised if John Hawkes pulls a Supporting Actor nomination as well, a la Jackie Earle Haley in Little Children back in 2006. However, I would even say the first six months of the year only gave us one other animated contender in How to Train Your Dragon. I don't see Shrek Forever After making any cases, not with the surprise success of Despicable Me this past weekend or upcoming films such as The Illusionist, Tales from Earthsea, Legend of the Guardians, Megamind and Disney's Tangled.
On the documentary front a few titles have already staked a claim including The Art of the Steal, Casino Jack and the United States of Money, Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work and Restrepo. Upcoming titles such as Catfish, Inside Job, The Tillman Story and Untitled Eliot Spitzer Film prove there is still a lot to look forward to in that category though.
This is no surprise. The beginning of the year rarely brings many major Oscar contenders to the fold, but last year it did bring two Best Picture nominees in Up and The Hurt Locker and we all know how that turned out. So what's left? There must be a ton of films to discuss if we only have two real contenders at the moment. Well, we do… Let's take a look.
Photo: Warner Bros.
Three July films stand out, one of them is obviously Christopher Nolan's Inception, and it seems a lock for a Best Picture nomination, especially considering we are talking about ten films instead of five. It's an incredibly smart and complex feature that seems almost impossible to pull off. Director, original screenplay, sound and visual effects all seem likely and I wouldn't be surprised if Wally Pfister (The Dark Knight) ends up with another nomination for cinematography.
Next, The Kids are All Right and Get Low seem like possible candidates for a Best Picture nomination and both seem like surefire candidates for acting nominations. Annette Bening is a strong option for Kids and Robert Duvall is a guarantee for Get Low. Both may be considered for screenplay, but I won't go that far just yet.
Countdown to Zero is July's most likely documentary candidate, but I saw this film at Cannes and it is one hell of a worthless movie. I can get to the bottom of it for you right now, "No more nukes." There, you've seen the movie. You can repeat that sentiment for 90 minutes and add a few charts and statistics or you can watch the trailer and basically get your fill. Either way, this doc disappointed me greatly.
The one July wild card in my estimation is Salt. Starring Angelina Jolie in a Bourne style affair and directed by Phillip Noyce. There is pedigree here, but will it be too much of a whip-pan actioner to stir the Academy? I am guessing yes, but I won't dismiss it until I've seen it.
Photo: Columbia Pictures
August looks like the weakest of the upcoming six months with only three films that I see having potential of making a name in the Oscar race and of the three right now I only imagine The Tillman Story having much impact and that's in the documentary category. Animal Kingdom is pretty much a wild card at this point, and while it won the Grand Jury Prize (World Cinema – Dramatic) at the 2010 Sundance Film Festival I have a hard time believing it's going to make a major splash on the Oscar scene. While I'm not going to hold out much hope, Eat, Pray, Love with Julia Roberts is certainly not one to overlook, the latest international trailer smells of something worthwhile.
The only other film to consider is the animated Tales from Earthsea directed by Hayao Miyazaki's son, you can check out the trailer for that one directly below.
Photo: Fox Searchlight
September steps to the plate with several Oscar contenders such as Anton Corbijn's The American with George Clooney playing an aging assassin. Ben Affleck's The Town sending him back behind the camera as a director for the first time since Gone Baby Gone (I saw this trailer last night and it looks quite good). Catfish was a hit documentary at Sundance, but will that translate to an Oscar nom? Howl opened Sundance to mixed reviews, but I saw at the Seattle International Film Festival and enjoyed it quite a bit.
Woody Allen's You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger (my review) and Oliver Stone's Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (my review) both played at the Cannes Film Festival this year and while Woody's film was more-or-less passed over, Stone's film received a bit more buzz, but I have a hard time believing anyone is going to consider either of these films top notch contenders. Dark Stranger, I don't think, stands much of a chance at all and Wall Street 2, while good, is more of a fun film than an awards film.
Ryan Fleck and Anna Boden, writer/director duo of Half Nelson and Sugar, will deliver It's Kind of a Funny Story from Focus Features. Considering Fleck and Boden's past films I wouldn't look past this one to make a bit of a stir when it's released. Starring Keir Gilchrist, Zach Galifianakis, Emma Roberts, Viola Davis, Lauren Graham, Jim Gaffigan, Zoe Kravitz and Aasif Mandvi is described as a dramatic comedy even though the subject matter does involve suicide, as based on Ned Vizzini's 2006 novel. The first pics from the film arrived recently, and I'd expect a trailer shortly.
Zack Snyder's Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole is the month's animated entry offering up warring owl clans. I'm not sure if I should add Philip Seymour Hoffman's directorial debut Jack Goes Boating to the list or not… I'll probably wait until I've seen it.
My most anticipated film of the month, though, is Mark Romanek's return to movies with Never Let Me Go based on Kazuo Ishiguro's novel (which I just finished reading and enjoyed). Starring Carey Mulligan, Keira Knightley and, newly cast Spider-Man, Andrew Garfield, I liked what I saw from the trailer and actually think this film has a chance of being even better than the book.
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Just out of curiosity, when are you going to put up your review for Inception, Brad?
By the way, I agree with you on Secretariat. If a movie like The Blind Side was able to pull off a nomination last year, anything is possible.
I'm going to go see it again tonight so I expect I'll post a review within the next 48 hours.
Hereafter actually does have a release date: October 22
In your section for October, you mentioned Clint Eastwood teaming up with his Inception star, Matt Damon. I think you mean Invictus….
Guess it's a good sign that Inception is on your mind though!
black swan is my most anticpated id say. Im not sure you mentioned peter wier's the way back but thats also one to watch out for. o and you said eastwoods inception star damon, i think you meant invictus. fingers crossed this half of the year is better then last
I saw Inception last night also. The Town trailer looks good.
Very excited to see Inception. Unfortunatley I guess it hasn't been tracking terribly well though. The most recent estimates were at about 55 million for the openning. Still can't wait to see it.
On the smaller scale of films though, I'm waiting anxiously for The Kids Are Alright to expand near me. Reviews have been through the roof and it performed incredibly well this past weekend. My prediction is for the film to pick up most of the major acting ensemble awards such as the indie spirt, nbr, bfca and of course the sag ensemble trophies. I'm still sticking with Toy Story 3 to become the first animated feature to earn best pic at the oscars in 2011.
While I would love to see Toy Story 3 win BP, I think many purists within the academy are not willing to make that leap yet (or if ever). Toy Story is pretty much cinched to be one of the 10 BP nominees though.
Yeah I know, but I can't honestly bare the thought of something that will likley be a lesser film getting that prize. I really don't see the more conservative members voting for The Kids Are Allright given it's subject matter. As promising as The Fighter looks it is probably to dark some members (O. Russel isn't exactly well-liked by some members of the industry either). Tree of Life still has something of a question mark hanging over it at the moment and Inception needs to do amazingly well at the box-office in order for it to clench BP, which it may not unfortunatley. So what else will go in there place? Of course those are questions that are still too early to answer as of now.
I know Malick's style isn't for everyone, but I think he actually has a realistic shot to win Best Picture and Director this year (assuming of course that it is as good as I hope). The rest of the pack looks pretty weak, but it's kind of hard to tell at this point.
Brad, do you think Michael Douglas has a chance at getting a nomination for Solitary Man? I ask because I plan on seeing it tomorrow. I've heard nothing but good things, with some reviewers going as far as calling it "his Crazy Heart."
What about 'Exit Through The Gift Shop' for a documentary nomination? Why does that one have no chance?
I saw it and thought it was one of the best docs I've ever seen. It's not a traditional doc, like The Cove, but it more similar to Man On Wire which won the year before. I thought it was amazing.
Also, what are your thoughts on Tron Legacy? I feel like it has a lot of similarities to Avatar. It was shot in native 3D, has top of the notch special effects, creates a brand new world, and is also being released the same day as Avatar was last year.
The movie Burlesque is wonderful! i see pictures and a little of backstage and is fantastics! has the best production in a musical movie! and obviously the best voice of the industry of music: Christina Aguilera and the legendary Cher, this movie has a incredible actors and will be the best musical in years! you have to see this movie is amazing!
Burke and Hare may beat Burlesque at the Golden Globes. It has a more stella ensemble in the form of Simon Pegg, Andy Serkis, Tom Wilkinson, Isla Fisher, Tim Curry, Stephen Merchant, Bill Bailey (from panel show Never Mind the Buzzcotts), Christopher Lee and Ronnie Corbett (one half of the legendary Two Ronnies).
I agree with many of those choices but I just wonder why Harry Potter wasn't up there? After all I would think that since the series is coming to an end the film-makers would go all out to try and make these last two the best and maybe even Oscar worthy. The film-makers did very well with Half-Blood Prince and if I recall right it even received a couple of Academy Nominations. So why not the last Harry Potter film (or in this case films)?
Harry Potter 6 was only nominated for Cinematography. It's possible that HP7 – part 1 will get nominated for this as well, but can't see it being nominated for much else. If these films are oscar worthy, it's probable that it will happen for Part 2 (like LOTR 3 swept the oscars). But then again, HP isn't on the same level as LOTR.
My most anticipated is "Love And Other Drugs". The test screenings were incredibly successful. Anne Hathaway & Jake Gyllenhaal are already getting glowing reviews- many people are predicting Anne will win her second Oscar nomination.
What about the Adjustment Bureau?
Bumped to March.
Don't write off Burke and Hare just yet. It's a wildcard option but let's see how the golden globes pan out.
Just reading this made me feel like we are not going to see Black Swan by the end of this year
And that's a damn shame
Arronofsky is like one of the top 5 directors working today
My Aunt works for Regency and she took us to a company screening of LOVE AND OTHER DRUGS. Anne Hathaway must win the Oscar for this cuz she was amazing. The film is really good.
The Descendants has a release of December 18th due to Fox Searchlight's website
Whatever happened to "I Love You, Phillip Morris"?
No idea when the studio plans to release it. In the UK it was released in March. If the golden globes were based on UK cinema releases, Phillip Morris would be a shoo in.
I also think NLMG looks like it will be better than the book. I have high hopes for Never Let me Go and I see a potential oscar noms for Garfield and Kneightley.
I am going to gag all the way through The Secretariat. I can tell already!
You mean like laugh al the way through it? As in the gags come thick and fast in The Simpsons Movie