Oscar Update: Latest Batch of Predictions Find 'Up In the Air' In the Lead
National Board of Review awards arrive later today
Next week I see Invictus, Nine and Avatar and if this week's screening of The Lovely Bones hadn't been bumped I would pretty much have the major Oscar contenders in the bag. I recently received screeners for Broken Embraces and The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus which means The Last Station and Crazy Heart are really the only other two films evading me at the moment. Even though I would like to see what all the fuss about The White Ribbon is, but due time should take care of that.
Now, before we get to the predictions you should know we are coming up on the time of year when critic circles and organizations begin handing out their top ten lists and today will see the first of those lists as the National Board of Review will be doling out their awards later today. Last year Slumdog Millioniare won the org's Best Picture prize and you better believe people will be eying their pick this year even though they will be gently nudging a few of their picks such as last year's award list naming Gran Torino for Best Actor (Clint Eastwood) and Best Original Screenplay (Nick Schenk). As we now know, the love for Torino — Oscar-wise — did not enjoy a trickle down effect.
So what film will the NBR look at as their top dog? Having awarded two Eastwood films in the past (Mystic River and Letters from Iwo Jima) and an overall affinity for the Hollywood icon, I wouldn't count out Invictus, but I see it more as a top ten nod rather than a top prize. My prediction goes to Up In the Air with The Hurt Locker as a runner-up. However, I feel like I'm throwing darts when it comes to this prediction so who knows? If you're wondering why I approach this prediction with bewilderment, Ryan Adams at Awards Daily has put together a list of the NBR's more confusing picks over the years.
By my count the list following that should be the Washington D.C. critics, which will announce their awards on December 7 and from my understanding, the Broadcast Film Critics Association is voting this week and will be announcing their nominees on December 14. So there's a lot to look forward to as we are just now dipping into the pool and will soon be waist deep.
Moving on, let's get to the current batch of predictions.
Beginning with Best Picture, I have moved Up In the Air into the top spot over Precious. It's not a move I make with any real enjoyment, but my gut is telling me the cup for Jason Reitman's film is about to start overflowing as reviews begin to roll in. The most recent review comes from Roger Ebert who gives it four stars saying, "Up in the Air takes the trust people once had in their jobs and pulls out the rug. It is a film for this time." Funny, isn't that what people were saying about Slumdog Millionaire? The only difference being Slumdog was welcomed as it raised our spirits and Up In the Air delivers a solemn dose of reality.
So Up In the Air is my current prediction to take it all and Reitman also tops my list of directors, which saw a bit of a shake-up as I moved James Cameron (Avatar) into the fourth slot and Eastwood (Invictus) down to number five.
Since last updating you, my Best Actor and Best Actress categories haven't changed with Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) and Carey Mulligan (An Education) leading those categories respectively, but I think both George Clooney (Up In the Air) and Gabourey Sidibe (Precious) are shoestring second place contenders and could easily pull themselves into the top slot.
The top spots for Best Supporting Actor and Actress remain the same as well with my picks of Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones) and Mo'Nique (Precious).
Next, as I mentioned recently, I am also doing some predicting over at The Los Angeles Times and on top of the categories mentioned above they are also asking for predictions in Best Animated Feature, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Original Screenplay so I felt I may as well hand those out here as well and see what you all think as far as those categories go. So here they are, in ranked order:
Best Animated Feature
- Up
- The Fantastic Mr. Fox
- Coraline
- Ponyo
- The Princess and the Frog
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Up in the Air
- Precious
- An Education
- The Lovely Bones
- Invictus
Best Original Screenplay
- The Hurt Locker
- A Serious Man
- Up
- Inglourious Basterds
- The Messenger
You can check out all my latest Oscar Predictions by visiting The Contenders or clicking on any one of the following links to get started. Each opens in a new window so just close the window to return to this post.
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So you think (500) Days of Summer doesn't even have a chance to get an Original Scrrenplay nod? I believe it very well could win it… The Hurt Locker, as much as I love it, didn't really have much of an Oscar-worthy script. Its strengths are brilliant direction , acting and cinematography. And The Messenger is a film that six people in the world know about.
Besides that, I agree that Up in the Air has a very good chance to win Best Picture, and Adapted Screenplay too (not so sure about Reitman, Clooney and Kendrick winning, but they have a chance). One Reitman's film was already well-liked by the Academy, it appeals to all audiences while being – I suppose – an excellent film, it has a 90+ RT rating, it is, as Ebert said, a film for our time, and it is sure to make a nice money in the box-office. It definitely has more chances than a drama about overweight illiterate Harlem girl or musical about life of a '60s Italian filmmaker. Invictus is likely to be this year's Frost/Nixon, and The Lovely Bones is receiving lukewarm reviews that kill its chances.
Well, I'm glad that you finally put out screenplay predictions, even if it took the LA Times to make you do it.
With that said, I have trouble imagining the Hurt Locker being nominated for best screenplay, much less winning. I liked the screenplay, but didn't think that it was Quite good enough. Same with Inglorious. I think it was well on its way to being Oscar-nom-worthy material, but I can't escape the feeling that Tarantino didn't put enough work into it, even if he did spend years on it.
Also, I'm so happy you are on board with Up in the Air at the top spot – I haven't seen Precious, but I think Up in the Air is a screenplay that could have won in a few previous years, so that's my litmus test.
Finally, I'm surprised not to see Nine on there. 'Nuff said.
I think The Hurt Locker is about to gain a ton of momentum over the next month. It won at the Gotham Awards, I was at a party last night and everyone was talking about The Hurt Locker. They are rereleasing it here in NYC this weekend (so I can finally get a chance to see it), so the buzz at least in NYC is getting electric for this film. I don't know if it has a real shot at winning, but it's going to score a lot of noms and I think the shear momentum will get this film a screenplay nod, mainly due to the lack of original screenplays among the Best Picture favorites.
Also, lately, musicals tend to not get noms in the screenplay categories, or do they? I could be wrong about that. Didn't do any research to make that statement. I can't remember if Chicago was nominated in screenplay categories.
Hope to see Up in the Air this weekend. I've really liked both Jason Reitman films a lot. So, I'm sure I'll enjoy this one as well.
Remember Anthony Minghella wrote the screenplay for Nine, and the Oscars may well feel like giving him a posthumous nod. Up In The Air doesn't really interest me – I'm waiting for Nine and Avatar, and hope they will blow the race wide open.
I don´t know why… but I think "Lovely Bones" will be the most polemical film between critics, fans, and average viewers. Why? Because this is a very personal novel, and EVERYONE have a different perception about it. I think it will carry very mixed reviews, and that may hurt it´s Oscar glory… Personally, I think we should try to think that this is Peter Jackson´s film… and not Alice Sebold novel. Sounds like the same, but it´s not.
Every negative review out there claims the same: Jackson took too much libertys with the novel… THAT´S THE WHOLE IDEA. Im not a fanboy neither, but I think critics have been very unfair about this film…