Oscar Update: 'Hurt Locker' and Streep Rise in the Latest Predictions
Front-runners are beginning to be sorted
Well folks, the year is winding down, we are knee deep in the holiday season and I'm looking forward to taking it easy for a few days, but not before I deliver one more update to my Oscar predictions.
For those of you that keep an eye on my "The Contenders" section you probably already noticed I updated all six of the categories on December 18, so much of what I am about to cover you already know, but I made a couple of changes since then. A couple of changes, in fact, resulted in two new front-runners. I am sure many of you already know what one of them is (if not both), so let's get to that one first…
BEST ACTRESS (get the full chart here)
Yup, I can't ignore it any longer. Meryl Streep has moved into the top spot, dashing An Education breakout star Carey Mulligan's hopes for an early Oscar at the age of 24. However, she shouldn't be too worried considering she has proven to be an immense talent and is likely to continue delivering powerhouse performances for many years to come.
I know it is hardly important, once the winner is announced, where the runners-up are ranked, but I can't help but be curious about the Academy's temperature when it comes to Gabourey Sidibe for Precious. Right now I still have her ranked in the #3 slot, but should she be lower? I can't find it in me to move Sandra Bullock or Helen Mirren above her. If you've seen any of Sidibe's press appearances and then match that up with the performance she delivers on screen you already know this is one hell of an actress and a performance that deserves to be in the middle of the conversation.
Speaking of Sidibe, there is now a brew-ha-ha going on inside the African-American Film Critics Association, as critics of the AAFCA co-founder Gil Robertson IV claim he manipulated the final Best Actress tally and awarded Nicole Beharie of American Violet the award to please the producers of the film, even though Sidibe clearly won by looking at the ballots. You can get the full report on that one at Showbiz 411.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (get the full chart here)
Keeping in step with the Precious theme we will move to Best Supporting Actress where it's pretty much a done deal for Mo'Nique who starred as the mother from hell opposite Sidibe. However, Tom O'Neil at Gold Derby keeps stirring the pot as he reprints an email from a member of the New York Film Critics Circle saying, "Mo'Nique will NOT turn up to accept her award from the New York Film Critics Circle, which seems to lend credence to the story that she wants to be paid to show up for these things."
This is being interpreted as a sign that Mo'Nique is only interested in being paid for appearances and doesn't care about winning awards. It's also assumed to be weighing negatively on her chances of winning an Oscar, but I love Steve Pond's comment on the matter at The Wrap where he summarizes the situation and ends it with a fantastic point:
[Many] members of the Academy won't mind if she snubs every other awards show and critics group in existence. In fact, that Academy would love it if she refused to attend all the others. They know she'll be at the Oscar show – let's face it, pride and Oprah won't let her miss that one. And if that's the only show she attends, it'll just make the Oscars seem that more special, and reinforce that it's the only awards show that really counts.
Is she "ruining her Oscar hopes?" Hell, if this is the worst she can do, I think she might be improving them.
Couldn't have said it better, and on top of that, I appreciate the fact she's basically saying "let the performance speak for itself." The idea an actor, actress, director, producer, etc. needs to make appearances and shill for their film in order to win awards is a sad fact of the industry. If a movie or performance is great then deem it so and move on, campaigning should not be part of the program… That's what Oscar bloggers and readers/commenters such as me and you are here for. We'll do the campaigning for them and I for one am all for Mo'Nique taking home the Oscar gold on March 7, 2010.
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It's gonna be one boring award show..Snoozeeeeee
No! The Hurt Locker? Blech! Most overrated film of the year. The award should go to Up In The Air or Avatar.
I can't disagree that Meryl Streep was awesome in "Julie & Julia", but am I the only one thinking that this is hardly the best female performance of the year? Anyway, I guess the Academy must be feeling the pressure of finally giving Meryl her third Oscar, after being nominated for everything she did.
Thank God, finally, we have to admit that the single best performance by an actress this year is Meryl Streep, her performance in Julie & Julia is bigger than the movie itself! It's one of the best thing that happened last summer, aside from the fact that the movie did well at the box-office. I did not placed me bet for Meryl last year but the awesome Kate Winslet was there and it was not the right timing. It's Meryl Streep's year this year coming from her body of work: Adaptation, The Devil Wears Prada, Doubt, Julie & Julia, and It's Complicated.
Streep was absolutely brilliant as Julia Child and deserves the Oscar hands down.
If Carey Mulligan had swept the early critics' awards (as some had predicted her too), I think her Oscar chances would have been stronger. But the fact that Meryl Streep has emerged with some of her strongest precursor showings since Sophie's Choice, there really is no contest.
Carey Mulligan will even have a tougher time as they head into the influential Hollywood awards. I do think Mulligan will win the BAFTA. But I don't think that will be enough to overtake Meryl Streep getting her 3rd Oscar.
In as far as Gabourney Sidibe? The nomination will be her reward. The same with Sandra Bullock (that is, if she can even get the 5th spot).
YeY for merryl! she is AMAZING and was brilliant in Julie and Julia… wouldnt mind it one bit if she walked away for this one… she should have won last year for DOUBT.. they gave it to READER!!! that was an abomination… Merryl for the win.
Thanks for the mention, Brad!
How does Meryl Streep continue to give great performance after great performance after great performance? What is this her 16th time being nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress? 26th time Golden Globe nominee?
Perhaps I'm bias cause I'm a big fan of her work, but I think Meryl Streep is the greatest actor/actress in the history of cinema.
Hurt Locker is good but not as great as all this awards buzz is making it out to be.
I don't think Mo'Nique not showing up for the NYFCC Awards is going tohurt her odds at winning the Oscar. George C. Scott vehemently protested against the Oscars—and most awards for that matter—and made no secret that he would not accept the award if chosen as the victor. (Of, course, he won Best Actor honors from the NYFCC and the Academy Awards for his titular role in "Patton", and refused both honors), so I don't think it will make a difference in her case. Her work should be able to speak for itself.
I wholeheartedly agree with you about McKay's performance. In fact, I think he's good enough in the film to compete with Waltz for the win. I haven't seen Nine yet, but do you think Day-Lewis' performance is worthy of a nomination?
Nobody deserves 15 Acting oscar nominations
Christian McKay was mind-blowing as Orson Welles. It makes you realize just how incredible an actor can be.
And I would love it if Bigelow won.
What about (500) Days of Summer. Thats not listed on your possible contenders and it has been getting lots of praise and is on a bunch of criticts top 10 movies of the year. I think it should be listed at least number 7. And while a Single Man and The Messanger are getting lots of praise for their acting I havent seen too many critics claim that they are Best Picture quality. And with mixed reviews coming in about Avatar(even though it is doing great at the box office and will most definetly win all the technical awards) I dont think it should be ranked that high for possible best picture.
Meryl has done some great body of work! Period! She was great in Julie and Julia and I found 'its complicated' was a tough role because Meryl had to play herself! She did a great job! Meryl is doing the best she can do to win! Lets make it a Meryl Streep year:)