Oscar Update: Art Directors Weigh In, Annies are Worthless and New Predictions
'Speech' vs. 'Social', but can 'Grit' make a run?
It's been a little while and the dust stirred up by the Oscar nominations has settled. We've all had a chance to catch our breath and get our bearings following the shift in the landscape from what appeared to be an impending route for The Social Network to what now appears to be a freight train by way of The King's Speech. Looks can oftentimes be deceiving, but are they in this case?
There's been a lot of sniveling going on from Oscar bloggers that are in full support of The Social Network and even doomsday prospects tossed around by Sasha Stone from Awards Daily and Jeff Wells from Hollywood Elsewhere. Talk of how the Academy is reaching back to the early '90s for their Oscar winner as both Stone and Wells seem to have conceded the race to The King's Speech. Both seem to believe, as I do, that Oscar bloggers and critics have a certain effect on the race. It just seems we all overestimated the weight of that effect.
Many of us thought The Social Network's unprecedented critical onslaught would lead the film to victory from September 2010 to February 2011. Interesting enough, if that were the case I would also think the whining that has followed the Oscar nominations, Tom Hooper's win at the Directors Guild Awards and The King's Speech's win from the Producers Guild would be a bit of a turn off to Academy members looking for guidance.
As it stands, I'm happy to see such a shift as I had grown bored with the race. I like seeing different movies winning from different groups. It's the reason the unanimous love for Social Network from the critical base seemed so silly. Variety is the spice of life and sites like this exist because of difference of opinion, not because we all love the same thing. What it boils down to for me, is this is one year where just being nominated is a realized accomplishment.
Just imagine, had Christopher Nolan been nominated for Best Director there wouldn't have been much for people to complain about. I was the only one lobbying heavily for Another Year and my complaints would've been lost to the wind. And based on the voting on this site it would appear the Academy was pretty much right in line with public opinion on their ten Best Picture nominees.
Everything said, I just updated my entire batch of Oscar predictions with many of them remaining the same as they were following the Oscar nominations, but a few notable shifts. My Best Picture race still has The King's Speech as my pick to win and The Social Network at number two. But the more I begin thinking about the preferential voting process the more I begin to think I may move True Grit into the #2 slot.
I imagine The Social Network will get plenty of #1 votes from Academy members, but after that, I imagine those that don't vote it #1 will place it somewhere around the #8 slot. The opinion on this film tends to be either you think it's great and the best film of the year or just good and one of the better films of the year. In a preferential voting process that does not benefit your film. Instead, you would prefer a whole slew of #2 and #3 votes with a few #1 votes peppered in there and when it comes to that idea both The King's Speech and True Grit seem to be the better picks.
The guilds obviously love The King's Speech as evidenced by the Screen Actors Guild, the Directors Guild and the Producers Guild. The Academy obviously loves True Grit as evidenced by the Jeff Bridges nom, the Coen brothers being nominated for screenplay and direction and the fact it was the film to earn the second highest number of nominations (10) behind The King's Speech's twelve. As such I suspect both will be in the majority of Academy members' top five when it comes time to fill out the ballot.
This curiosity also has me wondering about the Best Director race, a race I have now switched my allegiance to Tom Hooper over David Fincher as my pick to win. I just couldn't leave Fincher at number one with the way the race has gone in a year that has pretty much taught a lot of us a lesson. It's a matter of reading the tea leaves and looking at the history of the Oscars and their choices and what those guild wins mean. Everything I see adds up to Hooper.
I still have The Social Network winning for Best Film Editing, an award where the winner has gone on to win Best Picture six of the last eight years. It's a gut call here and I'll admit a bit of a preference call as I thought the editing in The Social Network was one of its highlights, but I will also say the Eddie Awards could change my mind on the 19th. I also kept Aaron Sorkin as my front-runner for Best Adapted Screenplay (even though there is now talk of a possible Toy Story 3 upset) and Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross are still my picks to win Original Score, but I'll admit that latter prediction seems a bit shaky at this point.
Elsewhere, I shook things up a bit at the top of the charts from my previous predictions in the Actress, Art Direction, Costume, Sound Mixing and Original Song categories.
Yup, I am now firmly in the Natalie Portman (Black Swan) for Best Actress corner. I wavered for about a week moving Annette Bening (The Kids are All Right) into that slot, but Portman's win at the SAGs sealed it. There isn't much more for me to say other than my quick gut instinct fooled me for a second, I expect Bening to go home on February 27 with an 0-4 Oscar record.
Next, over the weekend the Art Directors Guild named The King's Speech (Period Film), Inception (Fantasy Film) and Black Swan (Contemporary Film) as their winners. Of the three only The King's Speech and Inception are nominated for Oscars and this was one of two categories I moved Disney's Alice in Wonderland out of the #1 position and replaced it with Speech at #1 and Inception at #2 and moved Wonderland to #4 with True Grit just above it at #3.
The other category I moved Alice was in the Costume category, giving the top slot to Mary Zophres for her work on True Grit. The only way I'll switch this now is if the Costume Designers Guild gives me reason to on February 22 where I'll primarily be watching the Period Film nominees and will likely go with the winner, be it Grit or Speech. The only way I'll go back to Alice is if it wins for Fantasy Film and The Fighter takes the Period Film category, a scenario I don't see happening.
In Sound Mixing I moved Inception to the top, costing The Social Network another potential win, but the Cinema Audio Society could have me changing my mind depending on who they award on the 19th. And finally, in Best Original Song I've decided to go with "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3 over my previous choice for "I See the Light" from Tangled.
The one category I didn't even think to change was Best Animated Feature.
Over the weekend the 38th International Animated Film Society's Annie Awards were handed out and if you'll remember, these are the awards Disney and Pixar boycotted complaining about the voting process among other things such as the fact DreamWorks Animation pays for membership and Disney doesn't. And guess what, How to Train Your Dragon dominated the night, winning 10 Annie Awards to Toy Story 3's zero. Do I see this as affecting the race? No, and yet there has been talk of a Dragon upset, but it isn't coming as a result of the Annies. Instead upset talk began because of the Visual Effects Society Awards as Carolyn Giardina at The Hollywood Reporter discussed recently if you care to give that argument any weight (because I don't).
With all that said, you can check out all my predictions right here, but my Oscar tally currently looks like this:
- The King's Speech – 5 Oscars
- Inception – 3 Oscars
- The Social Network – 3 Oscars
- The Fighter – 2 Oscars
- Toy Story 3 – 2 Oscars
- True Grit – 2 Oscars
- Barney's Version – 1 Oscars
- Black Swan – 1 Oscars
I'm sure you agree with some of my predictions and disagree on others and I would love to hear your reasons. Over the last few years this seems to have turned into a group effort and we've done rather well and I'd love to see how far we've come.
The categories I'd like to hear your thoughts on the most are Best Director, Best Screenplay (Original and Adapted) and Original Score. Try to drop your allegiance and love for any of the nominees and look at it entirely objectively. It's a hard thing for all of us to do and I am still doing it with categories like Film Editing and Score, but sometimes you just think the best is the best, and who could ever argue with that?
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I still think The King's Speech is a lock to win Best Picture. Most of the guild members are also Academy members, and the producers, directors, and actors have all gone with The King's Speech. The writers couldn't, but I've always considered The King's Speech the frontrunner for original screenplay. And with all the talk about the voting system shaking up the Best Picture race…when has that actually happened recently? I know we don't see how everyone voted, but the last time a film that wasn't a favorite going into the ceremony won Best Picture was in '05-'06 with Crash. There was talk last year about Basterds winning because of the system, but guess what? The Hurt Locker was the favorite, and it won. And if a film was going to benefit from the system, I'd put The Fighter ahead of True Grit.
Another thing to remember is the context of when voting takes place. Yes the Academy loved on True Grit, but they loved The King's Speech more. And when nomination ballots were out in December/early January, what was the hottest film? True Grit. That plus just general Coen love is what lead to it getting so many nominations I think. But I also think it has now cooled off, and no one is even mentioning it as a contender to win, it's all about The King's Speech vs. The Social Network. I have it at #4 in my predictions, but I'd say 4-10 all have zero chances of winning. The only way I see The King's Speech losing at this point is if there's enough of a backlash and a notion of this being another Shakespeare in Love or English Patient or (to a lesser extent) Forrest Gump. I firmly believe that's how this year will ultimately be viewed if it wins, but I'm not sure the whole movie blogging world thinking that would sway the Academy.
Hooper is my favorite for director and that won't change. I still think Fincher could win, but it's unlikely. I have The King's Speech and The Social Network winning screenplay, and The King's Speech winning score. I have Tangled winning song still, mainly because of the whole Disney princess thing (and because it's clear this is a year where the Academy is dwelling in the past), but I have "If I Rise" as my runner up. I might be letting personal bias in there, but I think there could be some leftover Slumdog love for A.R. Rahman. Also it's just a really beautiful song that fits perfectly at the end of the film.
My full preditions:
Picture: The King's Speech
Director: Tom Hooper
Actor: Colin Firth
Actress: Natalie Portman
Supp. Actor: Christian Bale
Supp. Actress: Melissa Leo
Adap. Screenplay: The Social Network
Orig. Screenplay: The King's Speech
Animated Film: Toy Story 3
Art Direction: The King's Speech
Cinematography: True Grit
Costume Design: The King's Speech
Editing: The King's Speech
Makeup: Barney's Version
Score: The King's Speech
Song: Tangled
Sound (both): Inception
Visual Effects: Inception
That's eight for The King's Speech, three for Inception, two for The Fighter, and one for everything else.
I still haven't forgiven you for writing that article on how boring the Oscar race was, Brad.
If there is a third-place spoiler, I think you're right with True Grit being it. Everything else at this point will just have to settle for a nomination.
However, I do think you've overrated Michelle Williams' chances and I don't see Hooper taking Best Director. Great predix overall!
I would have to say The Social Network for adapted screenplay and The King's Speech for original screenplay… I think all the acting categories are definitely set in stone, as is the animated feature category… for score, I think it should be the Social Network, and I think it will win.
I am unsure for director. Something tells me Fincher will win, but I think Hooper is more deserving.
TRUE GRIT's team was applauded many in the Oscar nominee luncheon today
I still want Bening to win Best Actress despite Portman's winning seeming inevitable.
Perhaps I'm biased (I almost certainly am) but the Social Network praised seemed out of proportion to its actual quality. As entertaining as it was, there are too many flaws in the screenplay to justify a Best Picture award. Direction and acting are another matter though.
When it comes to movies, I've always just gone with what I feel personally about a movie, never mind what the critics say or what other people say. After all, our own opinion is the only one we can put out there…
I still haven't budged from The Social Network as the Best Picture winner. I saw nine of the 10 movies nominated (no interest in seeing The Kids Are All Right), and The Social Network was for me the best one. I was impressed by The King's Speech, but it came in at number six or seven for me.
The writing was what impressed me the most about The Social Network, but the performances were also outstanding across the board. The story couldn't be more topical either.
i think as a movie, in terms of sheer excellence and wow factorization, in terms of complexity and simplicity all at the same time, and in terms of high class filmmaking, I believe the BEST PICTURE of the year was Inception. I know people were scared to think in there, and they didn't want to give it the three or four viewings it demanded, but when we are talking about the film as a FILM, not a perception, it truly was the best.
The SAGS hardly ever affect the outcome of the Oscars so the Natalie Portman Best Actress win and The King's Speech Ensemble wins shouldn't be taken in consideration at all. Meryl Streep won for Doubt and lost at the Oscars, while Basterds won Ensemble and won nothing else at the Oscars either. The SAG Awards have very little influence.
The DGAs have a much larger impact. The last time a director didn't win the DGA and went on to win the Oscar was Roman Polanski for The Pianist (who lost the DGA to Rob Marshall for 2002's Chicago). Before that, it was Steven Soderbergh for Traffic who lost the DGA to Ang Lee for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. Tom Hooper's DGA win is very significant, but I don't think it builds him as a perfect replacement for David Fincher just yet.
As great as True Grit was, I think its chances of winning Best Picture are slim to none. The Academy don't like repeat winners that much and I don't see them making The Coens an exception to the rule. They should be happy with the 10 nominations.
Overall, here are my predictions for these three main categories:
Best Leading Actress: Annette Benning is the PRESIDENT OF THE ACTING BRANCH OF THE ACADEMY. She's winning.
Best Director: David Fincher is winning purely so they can reward his body of work, especially after the huge Benjamin Button love 2 years ago. Other than The King's Speech and The Damned United (a movie I really loved), Tom Hooper hasn't done anything in cinema and I think that will be his downfall. Fincher's decorated filmography will be awarded before Hooper even if Hooper is the best candidate.
Best Picture: The Social Network… This is just a consequence of David Fincher winning Director and all the hype surrounding the film. True Grit isn't winning because of the Coens, Toy Story isn't winning because its animated, Winter's Bone isn't the best by any means, The Kids Are All Right isn't either, an Inception win isn't happening and although I really love Black Swan and 127 Hours, they are more like "filler" at this point. The race is between The Fighter, The King's Speech and The Social Network and I just can't see either of the first ones win.
Kate Winslet was moved to the Best Actress category, beating Streep. Christoph Waltz took home Best Supp. Actor for Inglourious Basterds and also won the SAG before that. How do they have little influence?
I do hope your right about Bening but this is now the fourth time she's been nominated. Why didn't she win previously if she's secretary of the actor's branch?
That's a good point Elizabeth. Normally you'd think that, because she is the president of the acting branch of the academy, Annete Benning would have already won a couple of Oscars.
The Presidency changes regularly. Tom Hanks was the last one I think. And I am sure that they probably would want to avoid "conflict of interest" accusations.
If they want to avoid "conflict of interest" as you say (for some reason, I can't reply to the post you made below), then I would say Benning is NOT a sure thing to win due to her Presidency. :)
I guess you're right. If she wins, people could say it was because of the conflict of interest of her presidency. If she loses, people can say it was to avoid conflict of interest because of her presidency…. There's no way this can't be a factor.
do not be fooled, The Social Network will major winner
Wrong. The King's Speech
Enough with the True Grit bias Brad, we get that's it's your favorite movie of the year. That doesn't mean it'll win Best Picture – and you certainly don't need to throw a rumor of its chances in every post.
My Predictions:
Original Song: I See the Light
Original Score: The Social Network
Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin
Original Screenplay: Christopher Nolan
Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Director: David Fincher
Supp Actress: Melissa Leo
Supp Actor: Christian Bale
Actress: Natalie Portman
Actor: Colin Firth (Although I would kill for a James Franco upset here)
Best Picture: The Social Network
I would kill to see James Franco upset Colin Firth, because I truly believe he had the very best performance of the year. It's a very different kind of role than anything else here, and the majority of his time on screen moved me. I know its a long shot as Colin Firth was remarkable, but James Franco is definitely my performance of the year.
Totally agree with you regarding all above…
I agree. The thing is Colin Firth is a great actor. Yes, he was good in "King's Speech" but was it is best role? Absolutely not; think last year's "A Single Man". As for Franco, he really hit it out of the park. Not to say he'll never top this role, but who knows? This is an obviously fantastic performance, and I would argue the year's best, and going with Firth seems a political move that would end up being regretted just as not awarding him last year is.
I completely agree with you. Colin Firth is a great actor. And yes, I believe he will win this year, not only for his role in The King's Speech, but for being overlooked in the past. The Academy has a history of making up for past mistakes by awarding the person for future work (think Scorsese). While I thoroughly enjoyed The King's Speech and Colin Firth, I just feel like Franco had the best performance of the year, and isn't that what this award is supposed to do? Highlight the performance of the year? I know its a long shot, thats why I predicted Firth's win, but I would be happily mistaken to see Franco steal it out from under him.
Art Directors Guilds aren't exatly acurate in predicting Oscars. If they really were acurate, why did Sweeney Todd beat out BOTH ADG winners (There Will Be Blood and The Golden Compass)?
Gosh, I really hope Benning being the President doesn't solidify a win. The poster above seems pretty sure of that. I'm still rooting for Portman and even though she has done so well with all the award shows through this point, I do realize she is far from a lock.
Really???? will no one admit that David O. Russell's THE FIGHTER has the most feeling and best acting and a great story and should be best picture. Or, are we just accepting the oscar pundits tell us because the syudio spent enough money.
I loved The Fighter, I just think its going to get its recognition in the form of both Supp Oscars. There are so many great films to award this year that there is just not much hope of The Fighter pulling an upset. The Social Network and The King's Speech just have too much pull for The Fighter to overtake them. For instance, The Social Network had some awesome acting performances this year, but they have gone mostly unnoticed by the Academy, so I believe that the Academy will award the film as a whole with Best Picture to honor the entire film and validate the work done by all involved.
I agree that The Fighter had a great story, great acting, and the most heart of any film nominated. I just don't think it has everything needed to win Best Picture this year. Too much competition.
Brad,
Are you sure that all the attention "King's Speech" is getting right now enough to take both picture and director from "The Social Network"? I have a feeling that the academy will ultimately sway back towards Social and it will take both awards.
My big question is why is everyone saying Social Network for best original score? I am a product of the 90's and NIN was a staple of my youthful angst, but I feel like I am listening to an instrumental from the Downward Spiral when listening to that soundtrack. Not to say that is bad, but it does not stick with me.
I have found the How to Train Your Dragon soundtrack to be far superior and have my son to thank for that. I didn't even care to see that movie when it hit theaters and rented it when it came out on DVD but was pleasantly surprised when seeing it and found that the soundtrack helped drive the movie. It stands on its own as well and feels more like another character in the movie and not just background audio. I dare you to listen to it, it’s very addictive!