Best Actor

Michael Keaton

#1 Michael Keaton (Birdman)

Fox Searchlight Pictures /  Directed By
Release Date: October 17, 2014

Steve Carell

#2 Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)

Sony Pictures Classics /  Directed By
Release Date: November 14, 2014 (Limited)

Timothy Spall

#3 Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner)

Sony Pictures Classics /  Directed By
Release Date: December 19, 2014 (Limited)

Previously
Ranked
7

Miles Teller

#4 Miles Teller (Whiplash)

Sony Pictures Classics /  Directed By
Release Date: October 10, 2014

Previously
Ranked
8

Ben Affleck

#5 Ben Affleck (Gone Girl)

20th Century Fox /  Directed By
Release Date: October 3, 2014

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/ghislaine/ ghislaine

    May 2014
    Some other possibilities that may be further down on your list:

    James McAvoy - Eleanor Rigby
    Mark Ruffalo - Begin Again
    Brad Pitt - Fury
    Tommy Lee Jones - The Homesman
    Bradley Cooper - Serena
    Matthew Schoenaerts - Suite Francaise, Far From the Madding Crowd
    Michael Shannon - Midnight Special
    John Hawkes - Lowdown
    Alfred Molina - Love is Strange
    Christophe Waltz - Big Eyes

  • Stacey James

    I like the full list of prospects and am looking forward to a lot of their performances this year. As for the early top 5 though, I'm worried Jack o Connell might be betrayed by his age, Michael Keaton might be betrayed by his resume (Robocop and Need for Speed are not exactly good oscar precursors), and Chadwick Boseman (& Ralph Fiennes) might be betrayed by his film's release date (which is sad in both cases). Just guesses. I'm really looking forward to Boseman, but I can't help but notice that Get On Up was given a release date less than a week apart from the excellent-but-premature Fruitvale Station. if Boseman's performance is that good, I have no doubt it will stick, but being outside the periphery of actual awards-friendly months will be a challenge for any talent.

    It will be an interesting year with this mix. Looks like we could be in for some treats, regardless of how the oscars go.

  • Michael Norris

    I don't know how the kid from Boyhood isn't at least going to be in the discussion.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Bri/ Bri

    How about BRAD PITT in FURY?

  • Anon

    I've been on the AwardsWatch forum and some of them are saying (in light of the reviews for 'Foxcatcher') that Carell may be campaigned in the Supporting Actor category (where, they say, he may have a better chance of winning).

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Mana/ Mana

    Ralph Finnes deserves a nomination and I hope to see Oscar Janeada for "Cantinflas"

  • http://www.cinemaconfessions.com/ Gautam Anand

    Hey Brad, did you change your predictions after looking at Jeff's list ? It seems like. Though, I think the changes you have made gives this list a much better look (Only, Bill Murray could have been placed higher. Possibly in top 10. That trailer does promise a lot. Both for him and the film itself)

  • Alex Feinstein

    Joaquin Phoenix should be much higher on this list. I have yet to see anything from Jack O'Connell to consider him a nom at this point. I can also see Channing Tatum being campaigned as a lead along side Carell. Coming out of Cannes Timothy Spall should be considered the favorite right now

  • Filmix

    All I can say is once you've seen Chadwick Boseman in GET ON UP you'll all be singing a different tune. If Jamie Fox won for Ray then Chadwick will no doubt be nominated and very well could win this year. His performance is truly AMAZING !!!!!!

    • Alex Feinstein

      When did you see it?

      • Filmix

        I mixed the sound on the film. Saw it for the last 2 months.

  • Alex Feinstein

    Christoph Waltz will most likely be campaigned in the lead role for Big Eyes. The film will focus on Walter Keane (Waltz) as much as Margaret Keane (Adams)

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Bri/ Bri

    How come Brad Pitt is not even in your 30 predicted nominees for his role in Fury?

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/gemini56/ gemini56

    Hi, Brad, I'm finding it difficult to believe that you don't have Philip Seymour Hoffman listed for his amazing performance in A Most Wanted Man. Not for sentimental reasons, but it may just be his finest work on film. Also, after seeing Chadwick Boseman inhabit James Brown, I think he will be moving up the list. I can't wait for the rest of your predictions to be posted.

    • cassandra7

      Absolutely agree re Hoffman.

    • xscarletstorm

      I agree 100%

  • Luiz queiroga

    Top :

    Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
    Tobey Maguire (Pawn Sacrifice)
    Garrett Hedlund (Mojave)
    Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler)
    Michael Fassbender (Macbeth)
    Miles Teller (Whiplash)
    Jack O'Connell (Unbroken)

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/David/ David Forbes

    I don't think Ben Afflect will ever be nominated in his entire career.