When it comes to the Oscar Best Picture race, prior to the nomination announcement the question is and always will be going forward How many films will be nominated? By the time the nominations roll around most pundits have a pretty good idea what films will be winning and, for the most part, what films will be nominated. After this weekend it seems quite clear two more films are locked in for nominations and one specifically continues to be the front-runner.
At the end of September, I revealed my first Best Picture predictions and of my initial nine, eight remain in my top nine today with only Anna Karenina falling out of the top slots. Additionally, my #1 remains the same, which is Tom Hooper's Les Miserables, which had everyone talking on Friday and Saturday and now that the holiday weekend is over the chatter continues in some corners today.
The film that takes the place of Anna in the top nine is Kathryn Bigelow's Zero Dark Thirty, which had its coming out party yesterday and is now one of my five locks for a nomination alongside Lincoln, Argo and Silver Linings Playbook. Though, the latter of that bunch is struggling a little in limited release and is going to need a boost from somewhere to maintain that "lock" status, but I'm sure Weinstein will shore it up before turning our attention to one of the two final award season contenders hoping to turn our heads.
All that's left now is Quentin Tarantino's Django Unchained and Peter Jackson's return to the ring-obsessed Middle Earth with The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. Neither of those two films is currently in my top nine for a nomination, as they both lay in waiting of their first screenings. The Hobbit will be screening for the first time on December 2 and Django shortly after on the 5th so expect reactions soon enough.
So all that said, here's the breakdown of my top nine films so far...
- Les Miserables
- Lincoln (strong box-office keeps it a strong #2)
- Argo (steady)
- Silver Linings Playbook (wavering)
- Zero Dark Thirty (climbing)
SHOULD GET IN
- Life of Pi
COULD IT BE FORGOTTEN?
- The Master
HANGING ON UNTIL DJANGO AND HOBBIT SCREEN
- Beasts of the Southern Wild
- Moonrise Kingdom
You can see my full field of predictions right here and stay tuned as plenty of Oscar predictions will be updated today and all week.