Oscar Predictions: Two Weeks to Go and I'm Feeling Confident
I just can't see it going any other way
Well folks, we have just over two weeks before the Oscars and I will probably only do one more Oscar prediction piece before that time with all the bells, whistles and user polls — that is unless something drastically changes, which is rather unlikely. This week I have made only two changes, the first being with Best Director as Danny Boyle now tops my chart as his win with the Directors Guild pretty much sealed the deal.
The only other change comes in the Best Supporting Actress category and I am going all the way back to the prediction I made on November 20, 2008 in this category and going with Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona after I bumped her all the way down to third last week. Let me explain my thinking behind this one.
The way I looked at it the Actor, Actress and Supporting Actor are three categories that are all sewn up. If they weren't sewn up it meant Rourke may win instead of Penn or Streep would win instead of Winslet. I don't think anyone can look at either of those scenarios as upsets. However, looking at the Supporting Actress category we had the chance for the Academy to throw a little spice into the mixture. A moment for the Academy to be unique, something we all know they love to do. So I thought, "What the hell? Why not Taraji?" and went with it and assumed I may actually take it all the way to the 22nd. Apparently I'm not that strong as I have buckled after only seven days, but it is more of a result of looking at all five candidates as possible upsets. I would say this is the best category of candidates on the nomination board when looked at on a whole even if you don't agree with one or two of the nominations. Each actress carries a unique talent with them without a flaw among them. Therefore, there really is no monkey wrench to be thrown into the category and the traditional front-runner can come to the forefront.
There are, of course, a few other factors that come into play such as I discussed over here, but I will keep those two arguments separate from each other.
Looking over the list right now I really think I have it nailed and don't anticipate anymore changes, that is unless Rourke takes it instead of Penn and Streep takes home Oscar #3 over Winslet's chance at numero uno. Either could happen and I wouldn't be surprised. The Supporting Actress category is one that remains slightly in the air and I think at this point is the only topline category worth discussing at length, but I would love to hear from you either way.
Do any of my decisions seem too far off base? Tell me where you think I am wrong.
You can keep up with all my Oscar coverage in my "The Contenders" section right here.
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some very solid well thought out choices. i cant disagree with a single one of 'em except perhaps Best Actor. Although Ssean penn is a perennial oscar favourite and the figure he is playing would appeal itself to voters because of its historical significance, im just sort of sliding more towards Mickey Rourke, he seems to off less of a flamboyant performance and i think that that subtletly might just give him the edge.
And im glad that Benjamin Button seems to be passed over with regards to the BIG awards
Other than supporting actress (I still see that going to Davis), I agree with your predictions 100%. I know a lot of people will complain this year's awards are too predictable and boring (I won't even get into the discussion over whether the awards are tainted because of the screaming and in some cases shocking snubs this year). Sometimes it's just obvious who deserves or will win. There's nothing really wrong with that. Personally, I don't want the Oscars to be "surprised" or for the horse races. I watch them because I love movies and this is an huge part of them each year.
Best Actor is really tough. I start to wonder if Mickey Rourke is going to win, but then I remember Sean Penn winning the SAG award, so it may go to him. Personally, I'm fine with Sean Penn or Mickey Rourke winning Best Actor – they are my two favorite performances of all the nominees. The only movie I could see possibly upsetting Slumdog Millionaire for the win in Best Picture is Milk. I don't see Frost/Nixon winning anything on the night of the ceremony.
Rourke's role was physically demanding…………………
I will still bet on Meryl Streep for Best Actress. She has the momentum going on after Critics Choice & SAG. GO MERYL!
Mickey Rourke is going to win the Oscar, hands down. There is no way that he can go unrecognized for his spectactular role in the film!
Cruz has been my choice throughout, although all of the supporting actresses were strong.
I'd place Meryl in the number one position and Melissa Leo in 3 or 4. Frozen River was a very strong film.
Van Sant for director.
Still a toss between Milk and Slumdog for BP.
Penn as best actor.
Best supporting Hoffman.
Hey Brad–
I saw Slumdog Millionaire last week and felt a lot of the same things about it that you felt. It was a nice underdog movie, and there were definitely some great moments, but it wasn’t a great movie.
So tell me if I’m crazy: I think the movie would have been about 10 times better if he didn’t get the question right at the end. Think about it. A lot of what made the movie so hard for me to believe was the “Just because” business. What if he guessed incorrect? Then his sitting alone in the train station makes more sense, and I think that last scene is even better. Yeah he didn’t get the money, but that wasn’t the point of why he went on the show–he wanted to get Lakira’s attention and he succeeded. That was the real prize, that’s what was the truly poignant part. The fact that he ends up a rich man as well just made it seem a lot more phony.
I’m still deciding if they would have had to change the title if this were the case, but I think it would have been much more worthy of all this awards buzz that way.
What do you think?
Brad,
What about the Academy tradition of rewarding old people that have never won? It didn't happen last year, but with the return of an Oscar-bait Best Picture lineup, I'm thinking this tradition may make a comeback. Frank Langella is in his 70s and he gave an amazing performance in Frost/Nixon. I'm not too sure if the Academy is just going to reward him with a nomination, but maybe the whole sha-bang! Richard Jenkins also has never won, gave more than one great performance this year other than The Visitor (see Burn After Reading, Step Brothers), and is also getting up there. He's still in his 60's so I'm leaning more towards Frank Langella since he's obviously closer to death.
While I would love for Mickey to win and I think Sean gave a great performance in Milk, in my Oscar ballot I'm jotting down…
Frank Langella
@Matt: That's definitely something to consider, but if it was a hard and fast rule I think O'Toole would have won for Venus in 2007. On top of that, unlike O'Toole and his eight nominations this is only Langella's first nomination.
BRAD: Much as I like Winslet as actress — she's dones some _great_ work that should have won at least one award years ago (much less nominations) — I get the feeling Edgardo is on the money regarding best actress (might want to swap Streep and Winslet around). Otherwise, I think you called the rest.
Cheers,
Dt
I just saw THE READER today…it's a very good movie…a worthy contender….i think it has the ability to push the likes of Slumdog….but the love making secenes are over-exaggarated and the plot was a bit streched..otherwise it's a good script with some strong performances……..who knows when the envelope opens on 22nd Feb…u might just see this name…u never know…
Brad, i still think ben button will win BP, and i still dont see how slumdog has a chance to win it, so i say BP is between ben button and milk. director david fincher will win over danny boyle and streep will get actress. but i agree with the rest
@Danny D.: I agree with you 100% the way he guessed, "Just because" i mean come on, if they wanted him to win in the end make it a question that he would have known, not just a wild guess.
@Joe Wagner-It seems there are much more efficient peeps here than Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy….dont you think so????
@Joe Wagner-It seems there are much more efficient peeps here than Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy….
I AGREE WITH ALL UR PREDICTIONS.
MY HOPES:
Ben Button for best pic
sean penn for best actor
meryl streep for best actress
amy adams for best supp. actress
heath ledger for best sup. actor
David fincher for director
Kate Winslet should and will win.
I have doubts with Slumdog winning best film. The academy loves epic films.
I wouldn't be surprised if the following happened (and I wouldn't be upset about it):
Picture: The Reader
Director: Stephen Daldry
Actor: Rourke
Actress: Winslet
Supp. Actor: Ledger
Supp. Actress: Cruz or Adams
It is a good year for the Fims this year. For the first time, I am really excited to watch the show since it is all a close fight among the major categories.
This is my bet:
BUTTON, Penn, Streep, Brolin, Davis, Boyle.
Actor – Sean Penn, amazing actor and deserves this win.
Actress – Kate Winslet, although Meryl Streep may recieve her third oscar Winslet still needs her first, badly.
Supporting Actor – Heath Ledger, he could've gone over the top with his portayal of the Joker but he was perfect and deserves the win.
Supporting Actress – Penelope Cruz, although I believe Viola Davis should win, she wont because they also nominated Amy Adams for the same movie. Which will swaying some votes away from Viola.
Director – David Fincher, although Danny Boyle's Slumdog is an amazing film, I believe Benjamin Button was just so much more of a challenge
Best Movie – Slumdog Millionaire, with the hype it's been recieving, you'd have to be an idiot not to pick it.
PICTURE: Slumdog Millionaire
DIRECTOR: Danny Boyle
ACTREES: Kate Winslet
ACTOR: Mickey Rourke
S.ACTREES: Viola Davis
S.ACTOR: Heath Ledger
slumdog millionaire
danny boyle
kate winslet
mickey rourke
viola davis
heath ledger
Slum dog, dany boyle, kate winslet, A.Rahman, Sean Penn, Heath Ledger,,,because always I do go for the correct
Shelly John
Dubai
As for the best picture is concerned, I want SD to win.. I dont know if thats the best of lot as I havent watched others.. But I want all the kids to get to the stage to get the award.. I am just waiting to see..