Oscar Predictions: The Last Picks Before Thursday's Nominations

I just saw Revolutionary Road and am absolutely certain it wont be a frontrunner at the Oscars. As far as performances go, Kate Winslet will get her nomination though i am not that sure about Leonardo Di Caprio or Michael Shannon. Leo simply because there is too much competition and Shannon didnt have much of a role.

My predictions-
Best Film:
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Wrestler
Milk
(Cant predict a clear cut winner here. For me its a 3 way tie between Slumdog, Button and Batman with Slumdog having the upper hand)

Best Director:
David Fincher
Danny Boyle
Christopher Nolan
Darren Aronofsky
Ron Howard
(Either Danny Boyle or David Fincher..again its very close to predict)

Best Actor:
Mickey Rourke
Sean Penn
Frank Langella
Clint Eastwood
Richard Jenkins
(No Pitt, No Leo.. even if they get nominated, wont matter coz Rourke has this one in the bag)

Best Actress:
Anne Hathaway
Kate Winslet
Meryl Streep
Kristin Scott Thomas
Cate Blanchett
(Tough competition here. Blanchett and Thomas wont win for sure. Ii feel Hathaway would end up surprising everyone here)

I like the KC Star reviewer, Robert Butlar. He does not fall in love with the movies like Revolutionary Road because your supposed too (calling it "American Beauty without the laughs") so let me add some of the picks he said was deserving that no one else has mentioned…

Supporting–
Ralph Fiennes “In Bruges"
Satish Kaushik "Brick Lane"
Ben Kingsley “The Wackness””
Gwyneth Paltrow "Iron Man"

Leading–
Ben Kingsley “Elegy”
Ricky Gervais “Ghost Town”

2009 predictions

These may be a little out there but the academy usually always has a few big surprises

Best Picture

The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
The Wrestler
Wall-E

Yes Benjamin Button is missing. But I think it is this year’s Dream Girls, a film that has only gotten its previous nominations from ridiculous hype. There are too many in the academy that will be disappointed by the film. The Wrestler, on the other hand is the real deal. No one who has seen it has been unmoved. WALLE is the animated film that can go the distance. It transcends its genre and more than any other Pixar film is being seen as a true work of art.

Best Director

Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight)
Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler)
Gus Van Sant (Milk)
Arnaud Desplechin (A Christmas Tale)

Sorry, it’s not Fincher’s year. That was last year with Zodiac and the academy missed out. I still don’t see how he has a chance. Benjamin Button was too much of a mess for enough sympathy votes. It’s actually Boyle, Aronofsky, Nolan, and Van Sant’s year. They all turned out (what many agree) are their finest films to date. And I know Desplechin is an out there pick but those few who have seen A Christmas Tale will surely agree. It has topped an impressive amount of critics’ lists. There is usually a room for a great film that is ineligible for best Foreign film (Letters From Iwo Jima, Talk To Her, Amélie, Vera Drake, Pan’s Labyrinth, Diving Bell and the Butterfly, City of God, and Cache)

Original Screenplay

Charlie Kauffman (Synecdoche, New York)
Dustin Lance Black (Milk)
Jenny Lumet (Rachel Getting Married)
Roger Segal (The Wrestler)
Mike Leigh (Happy Go Lucky)

Woody Allen’s screenplay for Vicky Cristina Barcelona was a big disappointment to many (Narrator, anyone?). Much of the films success was due to the scenery and the outstanding work of the cast. Wall-E, of course, is a masterpiece, but with so little dialogue, it could easily be left out. It’s such a crowded category that The Coen Brothers (Burn after Reading), Arnaud Desplechin (A Christmas Tale), and Martin McDonagh (In Bruges) will be the unfortunate casualties. I think that Kauffman has just enough ardent supporters for Synecdoche, New York to get a nod. Unfortunately, Ari Folman’s Waltz with Bashir will be dismissed as a documentary screenplay. IT’S STILL A SCREENPLAY!!

Adapted Screenplay

Jonathan Nolan & Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight)
John Ajvide Lindqvist (Let the Right One In)
Simon Beaufoy (Slumdog Millionaire)
Maurizio Braucci, Ugo Chiti, Gianni Di Gregorio, Matteo Garrone, Massimo Gaudioso & Roberto Saviano (Gomorra)
Laurent Cantet (The Class)

Eric Roth’s script for Benjamin Button seems to be adapted more from his own Forrest Gump than F. Scott FitzGerald’s short story. The academy should see how much of a mess it really is. Being a weak category this year there shouldn’t be any surprises here other than Cantet’s The Class, which is a shoe in to win Best Foreign Film. It should garner enough love to go the extra mile. The same could go for Gomorra, which is being touted as this year's City of God.

Best Actor

Brendan Gleason (In Burge)
Sean Penn (Milk)
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
Frank Langella (Frost Nixon)
Richard Jenkins (The Visitor)

I don’t see how Brad Pitt has gotten any buzz at all. Many are confusing his performance with the accomplishments of CGI and Makeup. And even awards shows are getting tired of Clint Eastwood. Dicaprio’s performance in Revolutionary Road was good but not good enough for another nod. This leaves a spot open for Benicio Del Toro for Che, but let’s be honest, a tiny fraction will muster up the nerve to sit through it. That’s why I think Gleason has a more that worthy shot (like Laura Linney last year). The fans of the film will try to get it nominated in any category they can and this seems the most likely one.

Best Actress

Meryl Streep (Doubt)
Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
Sally Hawkins (Happy Go Lucky)
Kirstin Scott Thomas (I’ve Loved You So Long)
Melissa Leo (Frozen River)

Although Winslet won the Golden Globe, her chances at an Oscar nod are still slim. The main reason why she won is due to her multiple losses. The Globes wanted a Susan Lucci moment. Also Revolutionary Road’s buzz has dwindled significantly with mixed reviews and her performance in it has very little champions. Too bad Michele Williams will be overlooked simply because not enough have seen Wendy and Lucy. If Jolie gets a nod, it will not be for this year’s performance, but for last year’s.

Best Supporting Actor

Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
Josh Brolin (Milk)
Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder)
Dev Petal (Slumdog Millionaire)
Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road)

Another predictable race with the strong possibility of an omitted P.S. Hoffman. His performance may have been up to par with everyone else in the cast, except he has not had the praise. His previous nominations have mostly been part the Doubt Oscar train. Many academy members could just forget to include him. It seems that Michael Shannon has the better chance with his few fierily scenes in Revolutionary Road, that had everyone talking. Eddie Marsden (Happy Go Lucky) could also slide in, if only everyone didn’t focus on just Sally Hawkins.

Best Supporting Actress

Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
Viola Davis (Doubt)
Kate Winslet (The Reader)
Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)
Rosemarie Dewitt (Rachel Getting Married)

The only real upset should be Dewitt, who has won almost every critics award, and has yet to be nominated for a major award (possibility of too many breakthroughs at one time). Her performance has plenty of ardent supporters who should secure the nod. The breakthrough performance that could get the boot is Taraj P. Henson, one of the few things good about Benjamin Button, may be deemed as too much of a stereotype by many.

@Anthony N.: I'm sorry, Anthony, but you're right and wrong about something you said. You said the Academy always gives us "a few big surprises." You're right that there are always surprises; however, you're wrong about their being "a few." There is usually one big surprise whether it's the strength of a movie across the board or one out-of-left-field nomination. You have a "big surprise" in every category and that doesn't happen. I'm sorry, but it just doesn't. As for Best Picture, WALL-E doesn't have a prayer although I do agree with you that Benjamin Button may very well be teetering on the brink of Dreamgirls-dom; it just crossed the $100 million mark, but by the time the movie is done it won't come close to its $200 million (after points are added) cost. The movie is a financial dud and voters usually don't like that unless it's a little movie they're trying to help by nominating.

These predictions look about right. I'll be stunned if The Dark Knight doesn't make it.

@Anthony N.: and anthony N I just wanted to say THANK YOU! For once somebody is being 100% realistic about benjamin button.

There will be a handful of surprises, that I guarantee. Wall-E will sneak in the Best Picture Category. TDK won't but Nolan will land a Directing nomination.