Oscar Predictions: Take Three, All Top Eight Categories
COMMENTS
'Revolutionary Road,' 'Reader,' 'Button' and 'Doubt' have been seen...
| BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS | |||
| RANK | NOMINEE | LAST WEEK | UP/DOWN |
| 1 | Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona) | 1 | n/c |
| 2 | Viola Davis (Doubt) | 2 | n/c |
| 3 | Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) | 5 |  |
| 4 | Rosemarie Dewitt (Rachel Getting Married) | 4 | n/c |
| 5 | Elsa Zylberstein (I've Love You So Long) | 3 |  |
| BUBBLE LINE | |||
| 6 | Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler) | 6 | n/c |
| 7 | Amy Adams (Doubt) | 7 | n/c |
| 8 | Evan Rachel Wood (The Wrestler) | 8 | n/c |
| 9 | Kate Winslet (The Reader) | 9 | n/c |
| 10 | Hiam Abbas (The Visitor) | 10 | n/c |
| BEST DIRECTOR | |||
| RANK | NOMINEE | LAST WEEK | UP/DOWN |
| 1 | David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) | 1 | n/c |
| 2 | Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire) | 2 | n/c |
| 3 | Jonathan Demme (Rachel Getting Married) | 3 | n/c |
| 4 | Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight) | 5 | |
| 5 | Sam Mendes (Revolutionary Road) | 4 | |
| BUBBLE LINE | |||
| 6 | Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler) | 8 | |
| 7 | Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon) | 6 | |
| 8 | Gus Van Sant (Milk) | 7 | |
| 9 | Stephen Daldry (The Reader) | 9 | n/c |
| 10 | Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino) | 10 | n/c |
| BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | |||
| RANK | NOMINEE | LAST WEEK | UP/DOWN |
| 1 | Jenny Lumet (Rachel Getting Married) | 1 | n/c |
| 2 | Robert Siegel (The Wrestler) | 2 | n/c |
| 3 | Charlie Kaufman (Synecdoche, New York) | 3 | n/c |
| 4 | Woody Allen (Vicky Cristina Barcelona) | 4 | n/c |
| 5 | Dustin Lance Black (Milk) | 5 | n/c |
| BUBBLE LINE | |||
| 6 | Thomas McCarthy (The Visitor) | 6 | n/c |
| 7 | Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon (WALL-E) | 7 | n/c |
| 8 | J. Michael Stranczynski (Changeling) | 8 | n/c |
| 9 | Gran Torino (Nick Schenk) | 9 | n/c |
| 10 | Grant Nieporte (Seven Pounds) | 10 |  |
| BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | |||
| RANK | NOMINEE | LAST WEEK | UP/DOWN |
| 1 | Eric Roth (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) | 1 | n/c |
| 2 | Simon Beaufoy (Slumdog Millionaire) | 2 | n/c |
| 3 | Doubt (John Patrick Shanley) | 4 | |
| 4 | Justin Haythe (Revolutionary Road) | 3 | |
| 5 | Peter Morgan (Frost/Nixon) | 5 | n/c |
| BUBBLE LINE | |||
| 6 | Jonathan and Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight) | 6 | n/c |
| 7 | David Hare (The Reader) | 7 | n/c |
| 8 | François Bégaudeau, Robin Campillo and Laurent Cantet (The Class) | 8 | n/c |
| 9 | Clay Frohman and Edward Zwick (Defiance) | 9 | n/c |
| 10 | Maurizio Braucci, Ugo Chiti, Gianni Di Gregorio, Matteo Garrone, Massimo Gaudiso, Roberto Saviano (Gomorrah) | NR | |
Remember, you can keep track of all my Oscar coverage on my "The Contenders" section right here.
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So after seeing "Revolutionary Road", "The Reader", and "Doubt", which movie do you personally like the most?
Lets talk about the charts now.
Best Picture- No surprise there, that's how I would of predicted it.
Best Actor- Leo over Eastwood? Really? I would of flip floped them and made Eastwood 3rd and Leo 4th, but almost no difference.
Best Actress-I've flip-flop your #1 Blanchett with your #3 Streep, and leave Hathaway at #2.
And those are pretty much the only categories that matter to me.
Btw, Great job on another great article, Double B.
@Jerzey Jon: I would probably say Doubt, Revolutionary Road and The Reader, but they are all very close. As for Leo over Eastwood, just wait till you see Rev Road, Leo is phenomenal… I still haven't seen Torino yet so who knows. As for Actress, I am basing that purely on buzz for right now. Streep is fantastic in Doubt and it wouldn't surprise me having her win, but I do think Hathaway is likely to remain my number 2 throughout, close but no cigar style.
Hey, Brad. I was just wondering, what do you think is the most "up in the air" category? I think it's Best Actress.
@Dylan C.: I would definitely agree with that, primarily because there isn't anyone that stands out above the rest as much as there are simply a lot of good performances.
I do not believe in the possible nominations for Blanchett, Jolie and suddenly Meryl Streep. I'd like some prizes for Sally Hawkins, By so difficult and courageous performance. But Good for Anne Hathaway.
As much as I want these Oscars to be dominated by Benjamin Button, I think there won't be any dominant film.
This is a tad off subject, but I believe you said in your 2nd update of THE CHARTS that you would have your interview up with Darren Aronofsky this week. Do you know when you are going to post that? He is my favorite director and I have been anxiously awaiting for you to put that up ever since you announced it! Great job with keeping us updated with everything Oscar related and I can't wait to read your interview!
@ButchTheBoxer: Yeah, it's going to be online either Monday or Tuesday. I decided to hold it for the week of release.
Brad, do you really think that "Valkyrie" is a possible Oscar Contender, other than for technical awards (Cinematography, Makeup, Sound-Effects Editing). Don't get me wrong, I like Tom Cruise (his performances in "Magnolia" and "The Last Samurai" – not to mention "Tropic Thunder" – showed his incredible range as an actor); however I just don't see this actioner/thriller vying for any real awards.
I guess there's an outside chance that "Valkyrie" could be this year's "Munich" (although that film didn't win a single Oscar out of its 10 Nominations).
Jonathon Demme is that strong for a Best Director Nomination? I would personally put Van Sant, Aronofsky, Eastwood, and possibly Howard over him. Have you heard more about Demme then I've been reading?
@William: It's Jonathan Demme, not Jonathon. Get it straight. I hate it when people spell my name as "Jonathon".
I don't know why you are even bothering to put The Dark Knight in the Best Picture race. It was a great film, but it's just not going to get nominated, especially over Oscar-bait flicks like Doubt, The Wrestler, and The Reader. And Valkyrie may come out of nowhere and surprise everyone.
Bottom line is, anyone and everyone who thinks a Batman movie will be nominated for Best Picture is just foolish. I predict it will be nominated for the following Oscars:
-Best Supporting Actor
-Best Cinematography
-Best Film Editing
-Best Sound
-Best Sound Editing
@Josh: Nah, I include it because I think it will be a good film and because I hate all the negative talk people are spreading about it without even seeing it. I have seen people call it laughable and a Razzie contender (the stupidest "award" idea ever run by people with no imaginations) and they haven't even seen it. So, including it with Oscar talk I think is only fair.
@Jerzey Jon: Actually, I have lots of friends who spell it "Jonathon". Please get it right.
So, since you say DiCaprio is a serious contender for Best Actor, you would say you are quite confident in him at least being nominated for an Oscar?
Lots of strong supporting actresses. Hiam Abbass has my vote for the Visitor. Debra Winger was wonderful in Rachel Getting Married but it was a small role. I also loved Elsa Zylberstein in I’ve Loved You So Long.
Actress: Kristin Scott Thomas in I've Loved You So Long.
Roger Ebert just posted his best films of 2008, and he calls DiCaprio and Winslet's performances two of the best of the year.
@Garrett: Get it right? How do I need to get MY name right, my name is Jonathan not Jonathon, I'm not from the ghetto.
@Jerzey Jon: I think the point flew over your head. That was a pun on your own words to William.
@Brad: I completely understand. As a longtime fan of all things Cruise (Risky Business, Top Gun, Born on the 4th of July, Mission: Impossible (I & III), Collateral), I've been anxiously awaiting the release of Valkyrie. Forget the fact that Tom refuses to use a fake German accent (remember that terrible Irish one he tried in Far & Away?) and all the haters who haven't even seen the film yet, I'm hopeful that Bryan Singer has crafted another intelligent, and exciting film (ala The Usual Suspects, X2 or Superman).
Jonathan*, at least in Demme's case lol. It is spelled both ways though.
What do you think they will do with Heath Ledger and The Dark Knight? Also I heard they're rereleasing it to theaters in January to get some oscar points. Any thoughts?
I deff would switch meryl and cate blanchett, I think it's meryl's this year for sure. I hope so. She deserves it. and I deff think Doubt will be nominated for best picture over The Dark Knight, it's a bat man movie, super hero movies are never nominated for best picture at the academy awards, I think Heath Ledger will be nominated and maybe win, but there is no way that The Dark Knight is getting oscar nominated for best picture over doubt or any of the other contenders.
According to reviews, it doesn't look like Doubt will be getting much of anything except a few acting nods and maybe screenplay and art direction.
Sally Hawkins definitely gave a strong performance in Happy-Go-Lucky, she should be given an award for it, maybe a special award but I definitely wanted her to win the Best Actress award. Such an amazing actress!!!