Oscar Predictions: Take Three, All Top Eight Categories
'Revolutionary Road,' 'Reader,' 'Button' and 'Doubt' have been seen...
Well, since last week's edition I have seen The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Doubt, Revolutionary Road and earlier today I saw The Reader. I can tell all interested parties that I think all four are quality films, but obviously some get me a bit more excited than others. I already did a short commentary on my thoughts of Benjamin Button, which basically proclaimed my love for the film and I do think it is going to end up being the film to beat as I have a limited number of films yet to see, but it isn't going to be an easy task because the majority of the films behind it are all pretty much operating on the same level. Basically, if you think of a door blocking Benjamin Button from all other contenders, just imagine the pounding that door is going to take as a group of films will be beating on it in unison as opposed to just one or two other contenders. Who knows, maybe they will break it down.
2008 has been a relatively weak year for stand-out films, but I think it has been a rather good year for a lot of "good" films, not films that specifically blow you away but films that manage to have an impact on you in some way. For me that encapsulates Revolutionary Road, Doubt and The Reader and all for different reasons.
Photo: Paramount Vantage
With Revolutionary Road I think I enjoyed the concept more than the film itself as Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet both offer up conflicting viewpoints and you are able to connect with both of them on one level or another. Kate Winslet's character looking for a way to restart the marriage while DiCaprio's character is right in line until a great opportunity at work and other contributing factors throw a kink in their plan to pick up and start their lives over in Paris. The film has some amazing performances and you will see Leonardo DiCaprio jump two spots as he, in my book, is a serious contender for Best Actor. Kate Winslet is good, but I have a feeling expectations may have led me to believe it would be amazing. I personally believe she is much better in The Reader. Michael Shannon is unfortunately going to come in second to Heath Ledger with a performance that makes the film something special (Josh Brolin and his performance in Milk will suffer the same fate). This isn't a review of the film, and like I said I like the ideas brought up in the film more than the film itself, which you will notice once you get to the Best Picture charts.
Photo: The Weinstein Co.
As for The Reader I enjoyed it very much even though it has some obvious problems, one of which is a relatively slow and meandering start and I also think 15 minutes or so could have been shaved directly off the end of the film leaving a small bit of ambiguity, but Stephen Daldry stuck to the story and took it to its end. I would say I can't argue with the Weinstein Co. selling Winslet as a supporting actress in this film even though her character is definitely the focal point of the story. I say this only because there really is no major lead and if there was one it would be David Kross as young Michael Berg. Fiennes has been dropped from my Supporting list as his role is so limited there is no chance. And in the cinematography department, Roger Deakins and Chris Menges (The Mission) turn in some stunning visuals. One scene in particular when a 16-year-old Michael Berg hops onto Hanna Schmitz's trolley at twilight is just beautiful. I don't, however, see a lot of Oscar range for the flick primarily because I think the Academy will focus on Winslet as a Lead Actress in Revolutionary Road and the film itself has just enough missteps in this mediocre year to be overlooked. That doesn't make it a bad movie by any stretch, I certainly enjoyed it, but I think many will find it a bit slow.
Finally, with Doubt I think we have a nice little ensemble cast competition about to brew between the likes of Doubt and Milk. There isn't a problematic performance inside this movie whatsoever. It is one of Meryl Streep's better performances, Philip Seymour Hoffman is as good as ever, Amy Adams is perfectly cast as the innocence opposite Streep's dictatorship and Viola Davis delivers a performance that turns the film on its head. The cinematography by Roger Deakins (yup, again) is fantastic and John Patrick Shanley has got to receive a nomination for his screenplay adaptation of his own play. Doubt will also have you talking afterwards in nice little guessing game of "Did he do it?" I have had plenty of conversations and emails already that are conflicting on the opinion. Now, to the latest batch of predictions.
Just like last time, I have ranked each pick 1-10 and I ask you to
Of that bunch I will be seeing Seven Pounds and Valkyrie next week. And don't forget we are less than a week away from the Thursday morning, December 11, 2008 announcement of the Golden Globe nominees.
As for the predictions, there are a few factors I took into consideration as I put together this week's list in case you missed it over the course of the week. This includes a growing trend by Oscar bloggers pushing for Slumdog Millionaire as well as the National Board of Review naming it Best Feature of 2008, Melissa Leo and Frozen River's recent success including Dustin Hoffman's glowing commentary on her performance.
So, with no further delay, click on the Next Page link to take a look at the predictions and
The 81st Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 22, 2009, at 5:30 a.m. PT in the Academy's Samuel Goldwyn Theater. You can keep up with all my Oscar coverage in my "The Contenders" section right here.
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So after seeing "Revolutionary Road", "The Reader", and "Doubt", which movie do you personally like the most?
Lets talk about the charts now.
Best Picture- No surprise there, that's how I would of predicted it.
Best Actor- Leo over Eastwood? Really? I would of flip floped them and made Eastwood 3rd and Leo 4th, but almost no difference.
Best Actress-I've flip-flop your #1 Blanchett with your #3 Streep, and leave Hathaway at #2.
And those are pretty much the only categories that matter to me.
Btw, Great job on another great article, Double B.
@Jerzey Jon: I would probably say Doubt, Revolutionary Road and The Reader, but they are all very close. As for Leo over Eastwood, just wait till you see Rev Road, Leo is phenomenal… I still haven't seen Torino yet so who knows. As for Actress, I am basing that purely on buzz for right now. Streep is fantastic in Doubt and it wouldn't surprise me having her win, but I do think Hathaway is likely to remain my number 2 throughout, close but no cigar style.
Hey, Brad. I was just wondering, what do you think is the most "up in the air" category? I think it's Best Actress.
@Dylan C.: I would definitely agree with that, primarily because there isn't anyone that stands out above the rest as much as there are simply a lot of good performances.
I do not believe in the possible nominations for Blanchett, Jolie and suddenly Meryl Streep. I'd like some prizes for Sally Hawkins, By so difficult and courageous performance. But Good for Anne Hathaway.
As much as I want these Oscars to be dominated by Benjamin Button, I think there won't be any dominant film.
This is a tad off subject, but I believe you said in your 2nd update of THE CHARTS that you would have your interview up with Darren Aronofsky this week. Do you know when you are going to post that? He is my favorite director and I have been anxiously awaiting for you to put that up ever since you announced it! Great job with keeping us updated with everything Oscar related and I can't wait to read your interview!
@ButchTheBoxer: Yeah, it's going to be online either Monday or Tuesday. I decided to hold it for the week of release.
Brad, do you really think that "Valkyrie" is a possible Oscar Contender, other than for technical awards (Cinematography, Makeup, Sound-Effects Editing). Don't get me wrong, I like Tom Cruise (his performances in "Magnolia" and "The Last Samurai" – not to mention "Tropic Thunder" – showed his incredible range as an actor); however I just don't see this actioner/thriller vying for any real awards.
I guess there's an outside chance that "Valkyrie" could be this year's "Munich" (although that film didn't win a single Oscar out of its 10 Nominations).
Jonathon Demme is that strong for a Best Director Nomination? I would personally put Van Sant, Aronofsky, Eastwood, and possibly Howard over him. Have you heard more about Demme then I've been reading?
@William: It's Jonathan Demme, not Jonathon. Get it straight. I hate it when people spell my name as "Jonathon".
I don't know why you are even bothering to put The Dark Knight in the Best Picture race. It was a great film, but it's just not going to get nominated, especially over Oscar-bait flicks like Doubt, The Wrestler, and The Reader. And Valkyrie may come out of nowhere and surprise everyone.
Bottom line is, anyone and everyone who thinks a Batman movie will be nominated for Best Picture is just foolish. I predict it will be nominated for the following Oscars:
-Best Supporting Actor
-Best Cinematography
-Best Film Editing
-Best Sound
-Best Sound Editing
@Josh: Nah, I include it because I think it will be a good film and because I hate all the negative talk people are spreading about it without even seeing it. I have seen people call it laughable and a Razzie contender (the stupidest "award" idea ever run by people with no imaginations) and they haven't even seen it. So, including it with Oscar talk I think is only fair.
@Jerzey Jon: Actually, I have lots of friends who spell it "Jonathon". Please get it right.
So, since you say DiCaprio is a serious contender for Best Actor, you would say you are quite confident in him at least being nominated for an Oscar?
Lots of strong supporting actresses. Hiam Abbass has my vote for the Visitor. Debra Winger was wonderful in Rachel Getting Married but it was a small role. I also loved Elsa Zylberstein in I’ve Loved You So Long.
Actress: Kristin Scott Thomas in I've Loved You So Long.
Roger Ebert just posted his best films of 2008, and he calls DiCaprio and Winslet's performances two of the best of the year.
@Garrett: Get it right? How do I need to get MY name right, my name is Jonathan not Jonathon, I'm not from the ghetto.
@Jerzey Jon: I think the point flew over your head. That was a pun on your own words to William.
@Brad: I completely understand. As a longtime fan of all things Cruise (Risky Business, Top Gun, Born on the 4th of July, Mission: Impossible (I & III), Collateral), I've been anxiously awaiting the release of Valkyrie. Forget the fact that Tom refuses to use a fake German accent (remember that terrible Irish one he tried in Far & Away?) and all the haters who haven't even seen the film yet, I'm hopeful that Bryan Singer has crafted another intelligent, and exciting film (ala The Usual Suspects, X2 or Superman).
Jonathan*, at least in Demme's case lol. It is spelled both ways though.
What do you think they will do with Heath Ledger and The Dark Knight? Also I heard they're rereleasing it to theaters in January to get some oscar points. Any thoughts?
I deff would switch meryl and cate blanchett, I think it's meryl's this year for sure. I hope so. She deserves it. and I deff think Doubt will be nominated for best picture over The Dark Knight, it's a bat man movie, super hero movies are never nominated for best picture at the academy awards, I think Heath Ledger will be nominated and maybe win, but there is no way that The Dark Knight is getting oscar nominated for best picture over doubt or any of the other contenders.
According to reviews, it doesn't look like Doubt will be getting much of anything except a few acting nods and maybe screenplay and art direction.
Sally Hawkins definitely gave a strong performance in Happy-Go-Lucky, she should be given an award for it, maybe a special award but I definitely wanted her to win the Best Actress award. Such an amazing actress!!!