Oscar Predictions

2013 Oscar Predictions: Are We Looking at a 'Silver Linings Playbook' Shocker?

If 'Lincoln' isn't the front-runner what is?

Jennifer Lawrence and Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook
Jennifer Lawrence and Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook
Photo: The Weinstein Co.

I've updated six categories in my Oscar predictions for the first time since the nominations were announced, and while a lot of the races remain the same, the lack of a Best Director nomination for Ben Affleck (Argo) and the fact it won Best Picture and Director at the Critics' Choice Awards and Golden Globes makes predicting those two categories incredibly difficult.

Had Affleck been nominated for Best Director I don't think there's a pundit out there right now that wouldn't have Argo on line on for Best Picture and Affleck on line one for Director. However, the Affleck absence is glaring as is the fact Argo has no support in the acting categories (outside of the Alan Arkin nomination, which no one is taking seriously). To that, only three times in history has a film won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination.

For the longest time Lincoln seemed like the sure-thing, but now not so much. This isn't to say I'm counting Lincoln out altogether, but at this point in the race it's hard to make it the front-runner in any category other than Best Actor (Daniel Day-Lewis) and a tentative hold on Best Adapted Screenplay where Chris Terrio (Argo) and one other film are looking to come on strong... That other film...

Silver Linings Playbook scored the third most nominations alongside Les Miserables and let's recount those nominations. Nominations in all four acting categories, Best Picture, Best Editing, Director and Screenplay. If it wasn't such a light-hearted and easy-to-digest film this would be the front-runner on every pundit's ballot. With the might of Harvey Weinstein in its corner and memories of 1999, it probably should be.

All that said, I have updated three major categories in my predictions and have those updates listed below along with some brief thoughts on the latter two.

You can check out all of my current predictions in the top 21 categories right here and keep an eye on the Awards Calendar as Saturday, January 26th will bring the Producers Guild Awards and then Sunday, January 27, the 2013 Screen Actors Guild Awards take place, which we will be live-blogging at 8 p.m. (ET)/5 p.m. (PT).

Best Picture

  1. Silver Linings Playbook
  2. Lincoln
  3. Argo
  4. Les Miserables
  5. Life of Pi
  6. Zero Dark Thirty
  7. Amour
  8. Django Unchained
  9. Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Director

It's looking like a year where a Best Director and Best Picture split is more and more likely, but even here I am torn between three names -- Steven Spielberg (Lincoln), David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) and Ang Lee (Life of Pi). Curiously enough, had Ben Affleck (Argo) been nominated these predictions would be much easier, but as it is, the whole thing gets thrown out of whack.

  1. Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
  2. David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
  3. Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
  4. Michael Haneke (Amour)
  5. Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Best Supporting Actor

Silver Linings Playbook is slowly emerging as the front-runner in many categories as competitors fall by the wayside and looking at this field I'm more and more convinced Robert De Niro is about to add a third Oscar to his mantle.

  1. Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
  2. Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
  3. Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
  4. Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
  5. Alan Arkin (Argo)

Again, you can check out all of my current predictions in the top 21 categories right here.

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  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Avatar/ Avatar

    If it's not Lincoln, it's Argo. And if it isn't Tommy Lee Jones, it would be Christoph Waltz.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Fox/ Fox

      But Harvey. . .

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

        Well, Django Unchained Harvey's as well... I just can't see Waltz winning for two Tarantino performances in a row.

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/jinjuriki187/ jinjuriki187

          thats true but at the same time his win at the globes increases his chances for sure, while i want hoffman to win, it will likely not happen and at this point i would say waltz has a better chance, just as good as jones or Deniro i think

  • Vince (Not Vance)

    I've been saying that Silver Linings is the true frontrunner in the Oscar race this entire time.

    I know history doesn't always repeat itself, but remember the last beloved, critical & commercial war era period piece directed by Spielberg that was considered a shoo-in to take the big prize home? It was Saving Private Ryan. And who took that prize home? The Weinsteins with Shakespeare in Love.

    It happened once, it can absolutely happen again. The Weinstein Company knows exactly what they're doing. I thought the abnormally slow rollout for Silver Linings was an awful idea, but now that Lincoln & the rest of the Oscar nominees have lost their steam from here on out (with the exception of Zero Dark Thirty), Silver Linings has nothing but momentum going forward.

    • Winchester

      I'm inclined to agree with that comparison and on the rollout of SLP. It looks as if maybe now Weinstein has been working on SLP over the long run instead. I don't think Lincoln is out for the count however totally as it's still doing well at the box office, but I can completely seeing your theory happen.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Fox/ Fox

    I'd like to say who I think's going to win, but honestly I have no clue. I guess I'll go Lincoln because I don't think I have enough to say its NOT going to be Lincoln. If that makes sense at all. .

    Supporting. . . Tommy Lee Jones?

    I feel like J.K. Simmons character in Burn After Reading. "Jesus, what a clusterfuck."

    • DavidG

      Or in Ang Lee's Brokeback Mountain: "This is a goddamn bitch of an unsatisfactory situation."

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

    I could see a 1999 again, with Harvey gettin Picture and Spielberg winning Director. I still have Lincoln at number 1, however.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Mikey/ Mikey

    I pretty much agree with your predictions, except for I think you're not giving Pi enough credit and Les Mis way too much. Les Mis is missing cinematography, editing, directing, and screenplay noms, while Pi has all four. Life of Pi definitely seems to be the stronger candidate to me.

  • Arjuna

    it just surprises me, not that I don't agree with you but I mean Harvey put SO much more effort in Django then he did on Silver Linings, I mean its still not in that many theatres and the marketing isn't even close.

    Silver Linings Playbook would be BP in the bag if the Weinstein machine had chosen it instead of Django during the last 2 months

    • Jak

      He's doing what he does with his big awards players. He waits for the awards season to begin then he expands it's release gradually. Not too atypical for Harvey Weinstein.

    • http://cinemaconfessions.blogspot.com Gautam

      Silver Linings was always Harvey's pony. And at the end of it, you realize however outlandish his strategy of its release was, finally it has worked. 8 unexpected nominations and 42 million at the box office without expansion. What more could he have done with a film that doesn't typically fall into Oscar zone.

      Django with its material was never going to be the frontrunner ,and Harvey very well knew that. Whatever efforts he put in that film has also bear fruits, few nominations and extra-ordianry box office. That's more than enough for a film like Django.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ian/ Ian

    I still say Lincoln and Silver Linings are in a virtual tie for Best Picture. After that it's Argo and then everyone else. Director is all kinds of wacky with Russell not up for the DGA...given recent history, I have to think that if Spielberg wins he'll take the Oscar, and that probably makes Lincoln the Best Picture favorite as well...unless Argo or Silver Linings wins the PGA. But say Affleck wins the DGA (granted that seems unlikely), then who's the favorite? No clue. Probably whoever wins the PGA. But if Argo wins the PGA...it all just makes my head spin (I'm also dehydrated from fighting a cold for four days). Essentially, we know nothing and won't until the PGA and DGA weigh in.

    And I don't see DeNiro winning. I'd say it's Jones, Hoffman, Waltz, DeNiro, Arkin.

  • http://cinemaconfessions.blogspot.com Gautam

    I think people are jumping their guns too soon. Let's wait for PGA, DGA and SAG when things will become more clear. Though I wish this confusion remains till the Oscar day and it can only happen if all those guilds go with a different movie. I expect SAG ensemble win for Silver Linings. Argo takes PGA and Speilberg wins DGA. Then we can call this officially the most unpredictable oscars ever. But if god forbid, Lincoln sweeps everything, we again are going to witness one of those mundane oscars where you know all the winners before even ceremony begins.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      I could wait until the Oscars, but what fun is that... have to predict in the here and now...

      Are you saying everyone should just stop talking about the Oscars until the predictions are more obvious?

      • http://cinemaconfessions.blogspot.com Gautam

        Nope. I didn't mean that though I think my 1st statement was bit misleading. Oscar predictions are fun, I do it myself but what I meant was, predicting anything now, would be more of a speculation because the picture might drastically change once the Guilds start announcing their awards. Though I like this chaos.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/samlane/ samlane

    I'm really starting to hope for a Silver Linings Playbook upset. I watched it for the second time last night, it's so good. It's not that it's my absolute favorite movie of the years, many of the others would be just a deserving, but if Lincoln, or even Life of Pi, wins, there's no surprise there whatsoever. It's what most everyone is expecting. It'd be nice to see a dark horse come in and take it for a change.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Fourleaf/ Fourleaf

    If SLP wins BP, what other award can it win? Supporting actor and maybe screenplay? Don't think a film can win BP with so few other awards, or can it happen?

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Fourleaf/ Fourleaf

      forgot about actress.....but i really don't think lawrence is the favorite

      • Julie

        Actually, she is the favorite (with Chastain) It’s Lawrence VS Chastain this year.

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

          agreed. I think they are neck and neck all the way down the pike. Once the winner is picked for sag, I predict the oscar will follow suit.

  • http://hypethemovies.wordpress.com Jordan B.

    Since the nominations came out, I've been calling it a 3-film race, with Lincoln out in front with a small lead, Life of Pi sitting solid but not gaining ground, and Silver Linings stampeding to the finish. The nominations show that there is certainly love for Silver Linings in various camps -- and especially among the actors branch -- and it is peaking at the right time. The essence of the film's story could very well be unfolding before our eyes in this Oscar race. One can only hope!

    If my favorite film of the year actually manages to win Best Picture, I just might cry tears of joy.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      me too!!

  • Jack

    I still think Hoffman takes Supporting. DeNiro and Lewis both winning their 3rd, while Spielberg wins his 3rd Director is just too crazy.

    I honestly think Playbook can win. Lincoln has honestly won nothing, I can't see the frontrunner status. I'm still gonna stick with Lincoln as of now, but in this race, anything can happen.

    PICTURE: Lincoln
    DIRECTOR: Spielberg
    ACTOR: Lewis
    ACTRESS: Lawrence
    SUPPORTING ACTOR: Hoffman
    SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Hathaway
    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Amour or Django
    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Lincoln

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      sounds like most people are feeling that Les Mis did not live up to expectations aside from Hathaway's fine performance.
      Although Lewis is fantastic, didnt he win for my left foot and gangs? I know he won the gg, but will the academy really give out a third?

      • http://hypethemovies.wordpress.com Jordan B.

        Very likely, yes, they will.

      • Risa

        He had won for My Left Foot and There Will Be Blood - I won't be surprised if he wins his 3rd this year. I would've gone with Dwight Henry, oh wait, he wasn't even nominated. But as long as Weinstein doesn't win many, I'll be happy.

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

          Any reason why people don't like Weinstein? I'm curious, not biased!

  • Garrett the Mad

    Here's what I don't get, you're all saying Lincoln shouldn't be considered the favorite anymore because it hasn't won anything yet. And so you're replacing it with Silver Linings Playbook, which has won what exactly? Oh that's right, NOTHING.

    Silver Linings Playbook was cliché-ridden garbage. It's basically a romantic comedy. It's a goddamn chick flick masquerading as an important movie because it's got a mental health aspect to it. The performances are highly overrated (Jennifer Lawrence gets worse and worse with each role she plays; Bradley Cooper's performance was all over the place; and De Niro was hamming it up for the most part), the writing is crap because it's overwritten in that every single character constantly tells you exactly what they are thinking, and the direction is flat-out ordinary.

    Lincoln will win because it is the kind of movie the Academy eats up. This is not a Shakespeare in Love vs. Saving Private Ryan kind of year wherein the lighter fare beats a serious epic-type film. First, Shakespeare, while also a romantic comedy, had the Elizabethan costume drama look and feel and the Shakespearean angle, which is also the kind of shit the Academy loves while only 3 war movies have ever won Best Picture (All Quiet on the Western Front, The Bridge on the River Kwai, and Patton). Saving Private Ryan probably lost a lot of votes from people who wanted to make it a 4th too because Malick's The Thin Red Line and the Holocaust dramedy La Vita E Bella were also nominated in 1998 and they undoubtedly stole more votes from Private Ryan than Elizabeth did from Shakespeare.

    If Silver Linings Playbook had been crushing everything in terms of awards to this point I would concede that it is probably the favorite, but it has won bupkis. If anything, Argo and Zero Dark Thirty would be considered front-runners but they didn't get Best Director nominations so clearly the Academy wasn't as thrilled with them as the critics were.

    Hey, but then again, the Academy gets it wrong so often that it probably will give the Best Picture Oscar to Silver Linings Playbook because it seems that more often that not they reward the worst of the nominees!

    • brace

      in competition with three WW2 movies I'm not surprised that most members of Academy opted for something different, funnier. Shakespeare in Love had Weinsteins and the most nominations that year but it also had brilliant script. for me that movie is one of the best Oscar winners in last 20 years. I would not compare it to SLP cause SIL is superior.

  • Zack

    I loved SLP, but I don't think there's any way in hell it wins Best Picture. Argo or Lincoln.

  • http://www.everyorsonwellesmovie.blogspot.ca/ IngmarTheBergman

    I love Silver Linings Playbook. I have seen it four times in the last five days. But I highly doubt it will receive best picture. I would love for that to happen, but the academy has it's mind set on Lincoln.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      Yeah, I think it would be a miracle if linings beat out Lincoln . Even though I loved the film and utterly disagree with Garret the Mad (in jest of course)!
      I actually thought the script for silver was well woven between the main characters.
      Im not all that familiar with studio film producers, but am listening to the various theories on timing and content. Even the politics of types of films the awards, specifically the oscars, embrace and honor.
      One question I have is how do you discern the momentum of films and the favorites in different categories? Where do you find that info?

      • Jack

        You need to keep track of the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, Critics, Directors Guild, and the rest of the guilds. The way they award films all influence each other and eventually the Academy. However, the Academy is a horse of a different color. Just look at the best director category. No one could have predicted that.

      • http://www.everyorsonwellesmovie.blogspot.ca/ IngmarTheBergman

        Yes, it was the characters who made SLP. As I keep saying to everyone, it's a cliche film with un-cliche characters. I have restored faith in Jennifer Lawrence. I thought she'd do great things after Winter's Bone but when she got into The Hunger Games and The House Down The Street (or whatever it was called) I lost intrest. I think Jack really answered your questions.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/RandallPMcMurphy/ Randall P McMurphy

    I don't really think its possible as much as I would love it to be for Silver Linings Playbook to win.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/navaneethks/ navaneethks

    I personally think Life of Pi has a better chance than Silver Linings Playbook with Lincoln still being the frontrunner. Silver Linings is not content heavy enough for the academy members compared to Life of Pi. Considering the past taste of the academy voters, Life of Pi is definitely in their ballpark for best picture.

  • Jack

    If Weinstein was to pull this off, his influence in future Academy Awards will forever evaporate. If he actually pulls off a sweep with Silver Linings, it would infuriate a lot of people. Because seriously, Silver Linings Playbook was a good movie and worthy of the nominations, but is it a WORTHY WINNER? Especially against its competition? I certainly don't think so.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      Not best picture, I agree. But after watching silver for the 4th time yesterday focusing only on the acting of Lawrence and Cooper and the energy between them, I tend to think they at least deserve the wins? Whether they will garnish the statues may be significantly influenced by the sag awards.

      • Jack

        I could see that for Lawrence. But not with Cooper. No one is beating Lewis and quite frankly I don't think anyone is more deserving.

        • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

          Yes I know you are right. No one is beating Lewis! I guess I like to give it to someone deserving the award for a complex character. Not just playing a great man.

          • Max

            If you think Pat Peoples is a more complicated and heavy role than Honest Abe, I don't really know what to say to you, other than please rewatch Lincoln.

  • Jake

    Silver linings playbook IS the best picture of the year and Bradley cooper should win best actor-- don't think daniel day Lewis was that amazing to get a third Oscar. Why exactly is it that all you naysayers don't think it should not win? Because its partially a comedy? Lincoln borders on being completely boring, zero dark thirty is now too controversial. Silver linings was inspirational, has got a great cast and a superb story that is moving.

    • Jack

      No one is knocking the movie. It was good. but come on. It's not a WINNER. Silver Linings Playbook didn't really do anything new the way Lincoln, Life of Pi, Zero Dark Thirty, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Les Miserables did.

      • http://www.everyorsonwellesmovie.blogspot.ca/ IngmarTheBergman

        Perhaps you may say it didn't do anything new for you, but personally, no modern film has ever touched me like SLP. I can't stop watching it, I daydream about, I fall asleep at night thinking about it. I'm sure that sounds very pathetic... most likely because it is. I would love it to win best picture.

      • http://www.scifiblock.com John D.

        While I can partially agree that Silver Linings didn't do anything "new," I fail to see how Lincoln did anything groundbreaking as well.

        What I thought was interesting about Silver Linings is how it took the romantic comedy angle and presented it with two toxic characters that weren't really meant to be with anyone but each other.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      Geez, I glad to hear someone else say they thought Lincoln was dull. Of course its a great story. But not BP for me.

  • http://www.scifiblock.com John D.

    I feel like every year I go through this motion where I start to suspect that the obvious frontrunner for Best Picture isn't going to win, then it does. Last year there was hope that the Descendants would take home the prize and the year before that it was The Social Network. Call me jaded but I feel as though the obvious choice is obvious for a reason. I'd love for Silver Linings to win, but I still feel 100% sure on Lincoln.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AndrewJ.S./ Andrew J.S.

    Right now I have Silver Linings atop Picture, Actress, and Supporting Actress. Lincoln just doesn't appear to have the enthusiasm so it makes sense for SLP to slip in there. The catch though, is that those are the only three I could see it winning. Spielberg gets director by default, and I can't imagine Russell's adapted script beating Kushner's Lincoln. And then editing I think you have to give to either Lincoln, Argo, or ZDT. So while a picture-director split is always possible, can something win best picture without getting any one of director, editing, or screenplay?

  • LoveforBuzz

    What would be brilliant- Argo or Zero Dark 30 win for Best Picture. Director: Russell for Silver Linings Playbook. Actor: Hugh Jackman for Les Miserables. Actress: Naomi Watts- Impossible (or Lawrence for SLP). Supporting Actor: Hoffman for The Master (or Waltz- Django). Supporting Actress: Helen Hunt for The Sessions (or Adams The Master). Original Writing- Quentin Taratino- Django. Adapted Screenplay- Tony Kushner for Lincoln. Just no compleste winner for the night. All these categories get winners from different films. Cause, honestly, the nominations (To me) is so ridiculous that it almost doesn't matter. When even in Hollywood major stars and players are upset at the nominations (mainly Direction), then you know something's not right.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

    house down the street (or whatever was) is what I consider an unfortunate decision on the part of Lawrence. But I guess we can excuse a few of those in most actor's careers. Even great actors.
    Hunger games is a great story. Yes it's popular, but almost an ageless drama about an oppressive government and the small hope to fight and rebel against all odds. Then there is an unlikely leader who doesnt believe any of that chosen one shit. (kind of like Neo in the Matrix). In that regard, I think Lawrence is quite compelling. But in slp she absolutely shines.
    Did anyone see her in poker house? film is so, so. But she completely carries it. Then came winters bone with an oscar nod.
    Ok so im a fan!!

  • LoveforBuzz

    You know cause Hollywood is really blown away with Oscar directing snubs, then j could see them rallying for Argo and Zero Dark 30 as a its not for director, but its still an Oscar award. And I think it would gell the Academy, "look, don't give nominations to directors just cause its a good movie or not give it to them cause its "controversial". And when has "controversy" been something the oscars snub. Wow, Academy has loweref itself in that regard. Guess gone are the days of "Brokeback Mountain" "Juno" "Midnight Cowboy".

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      I could live with Argo wining for bp! I loved the film and affleks directing. The academy may find themselves feeling like they owe ben for the snub.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Xarnis/ Xarnis

    And yes, Lincoln didn't win anything except Actor at the Golden Globes, but SLP only won best Actress. I know Harvey is killing people to push SLP, but i think the Academy just loves Spielberg too much. And mybe, they don't want another 1999. Maybe they think Spielberg's film should get Best Picture to make up for Saving Private Ryan's (Which I think is better than Lincoln) loss in 1999.

    On a personal note, I really want Argo to win. Zero Dark Thirty was my favorite film of the year, but it really doesn't have a chance. I loved Argo, however, and hope it will win. I did like Lincoln, but not as much as Argo or ZD30.

  • BY

    I don't understand why Life of Pi isn't getting much air time here. IMHO it's the only film that's completely ground breaking this year. 20 years from now, it'll be the only movie that is discussed in film history.

    Ang Lee really pulled off an amazing feat. That film is gorgeous and is now my all time fav. On top of that, it's the kind of material the academy really likes - its serious, thought provoking, humorous at times. The opening title song along is the prettiest I've ever seen. It has a really good chance at 4 technical awards plus shot at a couple more. Execution is so well balanced that you forget how amazing each component is. Yes it deserves and will win visual effects, but it should win a lot more, including best director and BP. Only a master like Lee can achieve this level of balance.

    • http://hypethemovies.wordpress.com Jordan B.

      "20 years from now, it'll be the only movie that is discussed in film history."

      Well that's surely not true.

    • Jay

      Well said. I agree. Unfortunately, the actors branch is the largest component of the Academy. I would like to think that they thoughtfully consider which film is best, but from articles I read... it seems that they usually only support films with all-star casts. Maybe they will recognize that Life of Pi is overall (without an all-star cast) the best this year. Hopefully.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/hellogr1/ hellogr1

      Finally someone out there! I agree with every single word...I dont understand why everybody tries to bypass that actually Life of Pi is the most 'completed' movie of all the other and above all...the most meaningful one!

      It gets so deep in so many different levels of cinematic art but the most essestial part is that ‘makes’ the viewer to take it home with him to think , rethink, to discuss it, to be disturbed, and ultimately I think to realize that the way the director chose to show the movie was not because he wanted us to be just witnesses of a pretty story but because he wanted to discover ourselves what the story was all about … and be inspireb, moved by and celebrate the grandeur of the human soul! How can anyone compare this with just another perfectly depicted historical movie that is so formulated and generic that offers us the true nothing? Im referring to Lincoln of course since all the other movies had their strenghts and I have many favourites among them (Amour ...Argo) ..but as whole, cinematic, intellectual and emotional experience, i had years to see a movie like this... and winning or not, at least im happy I will carry it with me as such an experience....thanks

  • Max

    There is no way SLP is frontrunner over Lincoln, one of the main reasons being David O Russell is lacking a DGA nomination. And Harvey already has two BP winners under his belt from the last two years. The Academy would be reluctant to give him a third one.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      Ok, I will take your advice and rewatch Lincoln. :)
      I see what you mean about Harvey's success recently. With that in mind, and no DNA nom, I agree with your eval for bp.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      Max, I watched Lincoln last night as I promised. Lewis does indeed blow all the other competition away, as you said! I'm still not sure I agree with bp. Nevertheless, I could definitely see it winning. Especially since I'm not the one who is voting!
      The supporting categories seem the most up in the air to me.
      Between Russell's and Harvey's situation I'd have to agree that they will be passed over regardless of what seems deserving.

  • http://timeforafilm.com Alex Thomas

    Sorry to refer to the odds all the time, but Silver Linings Playbook is $36 to win Best Picture (ie 35-1, ie insane odds). Surely they can't get it that wrong? Lincoln still looks likely according to the odds with Argo a slight chance. I agree though that it seems strange but they've been spot on with most of the markets (Animated film for example!)

    Supporting Actor is the most up in the air category ever but still, DeNiro isn't in the top 3 favourites.

    Thing is, I'd usually back you in Brad, so maybe I'll enjoy those odds on offer!

  • Con

    Michael Haneke will win Best Director and Lincoln will win BP. The opposite of 1999's results

    • Jason Zamora

      I think I'd like this scenario better, if anyone's beating Spielberg this year, Haneke's the most deserved one.

      • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

        I haven't seen amour. I'm curious what it is about it that makes you think it deserves best director...
        My curiosity led me to check out gold derby. The "experts" predict everyone except haneke.
        Seems that "they" split it between afflek, Spielberg and bigelow with Spielberg out in front.
        Personally if it was me voting, I'd pick afflek.

  • Jason Zamora

    Aah, now that Silver Linings Playbook is on everybody's radar, Weinstein is already winning... The love SLP is getting here will be the same arguments to be used to justify its oscar statuette come february...

  • http://wondersinthedark.wordpress.com Sam Juliano

    Utter insanity. SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK has NO chance. None.

    LINCOLN remains the solid front runner, with ARGO, LES MIS and THE LIFE OF PI next up.

    The De Niro prediction is hysterical. Try Jones, Waltz of Hoffman.

    Apparently this group here loves Russell's film and are using that sentiment to impact the nominations.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      maybe, but what about sentiment for Lincoln? Does it really deserve all of the nominations and front running? Of course, I would give award to Lewis. And perhaps Spielberg. But the other actors not so much.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Elijah/ Elijah

      Personally loved Silver Linings, but I agree De Niro probably has no chance. Best picture on the other hand would be an awesome win over Argo/Lincoln, personally rooting for Life of Pi or Beasts but that's probably impossible.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

      I've been thinking Sam....silver linings for bp is an impossibility! Or as least a real LONG SHOT! Argo is my hope.
      And waltz or jones. I haven't seen django. But I have to admit, jones was amazing in Lincoln. Oceans away from deniro.

  • AJ

    I am reading this old article when we are almost a year out from this Oscar ceremony and close to the next year's ceremony. In hindsight all this guessing and all the comments here read funny. Nobody here talks about "Life of Pi", simply because its hype lost steam somewhere along the way, fueled by the critics and media who failed to see anything in the movie beyond its 3D, despite the fact that the movie got 11 nominations. Looking back, if it had not been for all this hype, Life of Pi would have won best picture. It was, in any case, a much better movie than the winner Argo.