Oscar Predictions: Any Surprise Predictions Before Tomorrow's Nominations?
The winners are pretty much locked up, but what about the nominees?
It's hard to believe the Oscar nominations are finally upon us, but what's even harder to believe is we are still over a month away from the actual award show. I don't know about you, but having the Oscar awards a month and a half after the final major awards show (SAG Awards on January 23) seems a bit excessive — almost making them obsolete in their tardiness — but that's the way it goes. I know I'm certainly still paying attention.
So, before tomorrow's nominations I decided to give my predictions one last look-see, and while my over the bubble line predictions didn't change, this was more about jockeying for position. On top of having what I believe to be the correct nominations above the bubble line, I also want to be sure to have the most likely of possible replacement nominees as close to that line as I can get them.
I'm going to start with the category that's been giving me fits, the Best Picture category and its ten nominations have started bothering more and more with every other article I read and conversation I have regarding the final three to four slots. I think most of us will agree The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Avatar, Precious, Up in the Air and An Education will be nominated, and if you ask me I think Clint Eastwood's Invictus is also a lock despite the minor grumblings to the contrary. This leaves me with three spots to fill and a bunch of movies to consider. Let's have a look starting with the three I currently have occupying those final three slots:
- The Messenger: I believe this is my darkest horse, but it also feels like the most "Oscary" film in my final three as it is more serious fare with an emphasis on acting and solid filmmaking. However, the one thing this one has working against it is whether or not Academy members made an effort to even see it.
- 500 Days of Summer: This is my populist pick. It's a feel good movie and it's a movie many people are remembering from 2009. There are a couple of other populist films that could take this slot, I'm going with the one with the best collection of acting, filmmaking, script, directing, etc.
- Up: Pixar gets its nomination. I feel confident about this one, but have it placed at #10 because I think of the ten I have on my list it is the least likely to actually win.
- A Serious Man: Here is your critical pick. If online critics listed the Best Picture nominees this would be in there. However, they don't, but are Academy members listening and reading online opinion? If A Serious Man gets a nomination next year's Oscar race will rely HEAVILY on online opinion.
- District 9: One of three remaining populist films I think has a chance. It's genre trappings are what have me doubting its chances to make the top ten, especially with Avatar already filling the sci-fi/alien quota.
- Star Trek: Ditto
- Crazy Heart: Great acting and great music, otherwise this one would have been forgotten due to its cliche script. That's why Crazy Heart will win Best Actor and Song, but won't be nominated for Picture.
- A Single Man: This one should be in there. If I had a say this would replace The Messenger. But I'm not making the list… or am I? Scary thought.
- Julie and Julia: This one is buzzy, but good Lord, if it gets a nomination it is one of two films that will have me looking at this ten nominees thing as a complete sham (I'll mention the other film in a second). Julie and Julia was NOT a good movie, it had two EXCELLENT performances (Tucci and Streep), but as a movie it is a bust.
- Nine: I'll tell you one thing, I gave Nine a B- and it has a 37% Rotten Tomatoes and a 49 at MetaCritic, but I wouldn't be as upset if this film was nominated over the likes of Julie and Julia and the one I'm about to mention next…
One film I refuse to add to my Best Picture charts or mention by name in the above contenders is The Blind Side. This isn't because I think it is bad film. In fact, quite the contrary, I quite enjoyed it, but as a Best Picture contender you really have to be kidding me. I don't care if it's nearing $250 million at the box-office. I don't care if it has Sandra Bullock's one performance out
of three that isn't stomach-churning. The fact a film surprisingly rises above its genre's average trappings doesn't mean it's worthy of "best of the year" recognition. It means you should make sure to give it a watch, at least on DVD if nothing else.
Will The Blind Side be one of the ten Best Picture nominees?
Total Voters: 372  Loading ... |
However, I mention The Blind Side because I'm not a fool. I know it stands a chance, I just simply choose to not recognize that chance outside of a few comments here. I would, though, like to get your thoughts on that chance by asking you in the poll to the right. Do you think The Blind Side will be nominated? I'm giving you a simple "yes" or "no". Don't be shy, it's okay, voting is completely anonymous.
Moving on…
The Best Actor race appears to be sewn up as far as who is going to win, but I'm not so sure about that final slot. Yup, I'm saying Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker) is a lock, but I'm a little wary about Morgan Freeman (Invictus). I think Matt Damon is going to get at least one nomination this year, but will it be for Invictus or The Informant!? Right now I'm counting on Invictus, but could see him bumping out his Invictus co-star here just as I could see Viggo Mortensen (The Road) sliding into that fifth slot. How about you, you see anyone that could slide in and surprise us in the Best Actor slot?
Best Actress, too, seems to be all figured out as far as the nominations go and it appears many believe Bullock is primed to be the winner, while Sony Classics is counting on Streep and Bullock splitting the popular vote making room for Carey Mulligan (An Education) to sweep in and take it all. Crazier things have happened. However, I'm looking at that fifth slot I currently have occupied by the undeserving Helen Mirren (The Last Station) — it's not a lead performance for starters, and it's rather generic beyond that — and wondering if one of many actresses couldn't slide in and take that fifth and final spot. Abbie Cornish? Penelope Cruz? Saoirse Ronan? Emily Blunt?
Best Supporting Actor is a category I'm anxiously awaiting to hear the nominations on as I think it is highly volatile. I do believe Christian McKay (Me and Orson Welles) will actually earn a nomination and I'm upset Stanley Tucci will earn one for The Lovely Bones as opposed to Julie and Julia, but whatever. However, here we have Matt Damon again, and will he be able to hold off the likes of Christopher Plummer, Peter Sarsgaard, Alfred Molina and Anthony Mackie?
I didn't change a thing in my Best Supporting Actress or Best Director predictions. Wins to Mo'Nique and Kathryn Bigelow. The only nomination out of the combined ten in those categories I'm not entirely sure of is Clint Eastwood (Invictus) as the fifth and final director to be nominated. I have a feeling that final slot will go to Lee Daniels (Precious), but I'm sticking with my gut on this one.
So that about does it. Oscar nominations take place at 5:30 AM (PST) tomorrow morning and right now I'm not sure if I will be getting any sleep whatsoever as I will be here to bring you the nominations followed by reactionary commentary and be looking to hear your thoughts. However, for now, weigh in with your predictions and any surprises you see down the line in the comments below.
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I see Michael Haneke getting nominated over Lee Daniels in the Best Director race – they likey nominating Foriegn directors. Also the movies from the predicted five would have likely been the final five, those two rarely match up so something has to give
Gonna keep it short and quick…
Daniels and The Blind Side won't be nominated
The Messenger hasn't even grossed $800k yet and I highly doubt many voters have seen it. So, no. As far as three BP slots to fill go, I nominate 500 Days, A Serious Man and Up.
Neither Viggo nor Damon will be nominated for Actor
Mirren will get Best Actress nom
I have a question. I noticed many, if not all, of you, meaning people who predict the Oscar online, implied Sandra Bullock is not deserving the Oscar. Some even say not for the nomination. Then, why do you guys still predict that she'll be the frontrunner? Don't you think the members of the Academy will have a plenty of time to consider what the world think? Or do you guys think the members of the Academy are fool enough to just ride on the momentum?
I'm a huge Sandra fan, but even so, I know her performance in The Blind Side is not that good to win the Oscar (or any other awards to be honest. nomination, yes, but not the win). I understand you guys predict based on the other results, SAG, Golden Globes, etc., but there have been so much backlash on her winning and don't they consider that when they actually vote for the winner?
I do hope Meryl Streep or Carey Mulligan will win. I don't want Sandra to be called a joke, which she won't deserve.
I think everything is going to be pretty chalk come tomorrow's nominations. I just felt the need to express my hope that anyone other than Streep will win Best Actress.
I must be missing the boat on this one, but I was not impressed with her Julie & Julia performance at all. A funny accent and cute mannerisms do not equal an Oscar-caliber performance in my book. Mulligan deserves the win, but I wouldn't be disappointed if Bullock gets it. I just don't want to see Streep get the win simply because she is "due." Bridges is already getting that award this year.
I agree with your top 7 movies, and Up will definately be nominated for best picture.
The Blind side will unfortunately be nominated too, with the final spot probably going to a fan favorite movie such as Star Trek (or maybe Nine).
I can't see the messanger geting nominated – it is simply too small a movie that the voters would not have seen.
@Brad Brevet: I was hoping to get your thoughts on something. I'm a firm believer that UP will garner a nomination for Best Picture and I'm also convinced that if the Academy continues to nominate 10 Films for their top prize it's a trend that will continue. My question is this: in your opinion is a mere "nomination" for Best Picture a bigger prize than winning for Best Animated Feature?
While Beauty & the Beast's nomination in 1992 was quite a shocker and a very large reward (considering that only 5 films were eligible for a nomination), I doubt it would cause such a stir in a field of 10 films.
As much as I really really want Renner to get nominated, I've been having this nagging feeling these past few days that he won't–Mortensen or Damon or even Stuhlbarg might bump him off. (Which sucks since Renner was better than all of them in my opinion.)
I a disagree with 10 Best Picture Nominees simply because, and I think you've already said this Brad but not sure, it's cheap, In my opinion anyway if it was just the five this year then it would be so close and exciting. I mean not any of the other possibile Contenders gonna get it but it just takes some of the fun out of it and I hope they change it back to five Next Year.
My two shocking Predictions:
1. Sandra Bullock doesn't get a nomination for Best Actress for "The Blind Side"
2. Viggo Mortenson receives a Best Actor nomination for "The Road"
Also for last minute predictions for Best Actress I'm still sticking with Bullock, Streep , Sidibe, Mulligan and Mirren but I have a feeling Cornish might sneek in the air and take away Mirren, but not to sure. But what's stopping me from changing my predictions is that there are already 2 Newcomers in the Main line – up this year so that I think could ruin Cornish's chances if the academy vote in a unfair manner ?
Why would Sandra Bullock not get a nomination ?
And when were the nominations finalised ?
@Brad- I think A Prophet and The White Ribbon will be nominated within the Best 10 Pictures…
Come one now, where best sound predictions?
Best Picture:
Avatar
Crazy Heart
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up In The Air
The films that I think are the least deserving of being on that list would have to be Avatar, An Education, Invictus, and Up… but I can see how they would appeal to different people, and build solid fan bases within the academy. I think Crazy Heart could sneak in there–Jeff Bridge's performance draws attention to the movie, and while I personally didn't think it was a phenomenal movie, it's a movie that's easy to root for. However, I am definitely the least confident on that choice. The Messenger could sneak in there, but I think A Serious Man will give the indie vote. It is the more widely known (not to mention the overall better) film of the two.
Best Director:
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Jason Reitman, Up In The Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Bigelow, Cameron, Reitman and Tarantino are all pretty much locked. They received both the Golden Globes and Director's Guild nods. Many people are saying Lee Daniels for the fifth slot, but I think it will go to Clint Eastwood, simply because it's a less controversial movie that people will have an easier time digesting. I know that the director's category is often the one where more original, eccentric work is acknowledged, but Eastwood is more widely known in Hollywood than Daniels, and something tells me that Eastwood is going to grab the spot.
Best Actor:
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up In The Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
All of these slots are pretty locked up– The Road doesn't seem to have the support necessary to pull Mortensen through, and the branch doesn't usually acknowledge comic performances, which leaves out Damon and Stuhlbarg. Which is disappointing, because I would rank their performances as the top two leading male performances of the year.
Best Actress:
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Abbie Cornish, Bright Star
Carrey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
I'm predicting a Cornish upset here, and I'm not exactly sure why. While I was typing up my predictions, I just thought of last year, when Michael Shannon got in for Revolutionary Road. At the beginning of the season, everyone was lauding his performance, and many people thought he was guaranteed a nomination. However, his performance was forgotten about as the season progressed. He was a longshot, but he got in, in a huge surprise on Oscar nomination morning, even though the film itself was snubbed in many other categories. I foresee this happening again this year, only in the best actress race. That last slot has many people guessing, and it could go to a contender like Cornish, who seemed like a sure thing earlier on in the season, but has fell by the wayside to the bigger name, Mirren.
Best Supporting Actor:
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Alfred Molina, An Education
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
There are many people contending for these slots this year, and it's one of the toughest categories to predict. It has become the general consensus that Damon, Harrelson, Plummer, Tucci and Waltz will be nominated–but the category is far from sewn up. I think Molina has a great chance at getting a nomination– if An Education gets the Picture nomination, I'd be surprised if he didn't. Movies that have one buzzed about performance can often get other actors nominated (see– Up In The Air or Doubt). I have had trouble believing that the best thing about an otherwise dull, monotonous movie. Tucci's role is less sympathetic, and is in a lesser liked movie. I still wouldn't be surprised if it got in, but I'd think it would be at the expense of Plummer, or even Damon.
Best Supporting Actress:
Vera Farmiga, Up In The Air
Anna Kenderick, Up In The Air
Mo'Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Samantha Morton, The Messenger
This is less hectic than the other supporting categories. Many of them are freeloading off of the film's lead performances or overall buzz–but hey, it's just a more concentrated spread of wealth. This also makes Diane Kruger a formidable opponent against Morton or Moore, as Inglourious Basterds is receiving so much buzz. I wouldn't be surprised if her name is called tomorrow morning, but the performance isn't that great, and I think that oscar voters will realize that.
Best Original Screenplay:
(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up
Avatar could sneak in here, but Titanic didn't get a nomination, and that film actually had respectable dialogue. The Messenger could as well, but it didn't get a Writer's Guild nomination when it was actually eligible to do so, and that suggests lack of support. Some people are saying The Hangover, but I think people are just becoming influenced by the Golden Gobes and BFCA wins, who's voters do not vote in the academy. Yes, it did also get a WGA nomination, but they nominated Knocked Up. It's probably not going to happen.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Crazy Heart
District 9
An Education
Precious
Up In The Air
I wish that Fantastic Mr. Fox could sneak in here, but it has become a longshot at this point. What it needed was some Animated Feature upsets to surprise in this category, but all of the major award shows and guilds have chosen Up instead. Invictus, Star Trek and Julie & Julia all have a decent shot, but Invictus didn't get the WGA nom, they're not going to want to nominate two sci-fi movies, and Julie & Julia might be a bit too fluffy for the category where they often acknowledge more serious dramas. It might've had a chance in the original screenplay category, but it's a tougher field here.
All those folks who have been discovering and falling in love with The Hurt Locker are going to vote for Anthony Mackie. Damon will be snubbed. Sorry Matt, you should've been nominated for The Informant! anyway.
And I'm betting that those who voted Inglorious for best ensemble at the SAG awards are going to reward Laurent with a nom in place of Julianne Moore.
I'm going out on a limb and saying that with Avatar, we will also see District 9 and Star Trek make it into the Best Picture lineup. My thinking is that since they are only looking at the top 2 votes, then the technical guys who would vote the technically proficient films in their list will get a bit more of a say with the ten nominee structure. But I'm pretty sure District 9 is in, and with that philosophy, Star Trek should make it as well. They will join An Education, Hurt Locker, Basterds, Invictus, Precious, A Serious Man, and Up in the Air. Certainly if they had the ten votes from each member counted, more of the Messenger and other small films then. Remember, The Messenger needs to be among the top 2 of Academy members votes, and I don't think it has it. Unless I'm confusing the voting process.
@murtada: I agree that Mackie will sneak in, but I think Harrelson gets snubbed as opposed to Damon. Damon will be riding off Freeman's nomination much the same way that Ethan Hawke rode Denzel Washington's nomination to get his own.
And I think Kruger sneaks in over Laurent, though I would prefer Laurent over Morton. Just got a feeling that The Messenger is going to miss out on a lot of love and that's the film voters will push out to get these two in.
If you guys are saying that The Messenger won't be nodded for BP because AMPAS HAS NOT SEEN IT, you are also telling me that Woody Harrelson is a long shot for supp. actor. Be LOGICAL, people!
AMELIA! Hillary Swank! What happened to this movie? Did I miss somethng? I thought for sure this would be Hill's third Oscar, yet not one thing is mentioned about this incredible movie. I don't understand at all, if someone knows the reason, please pass it on to me.
@Maureen: Well, not to burst your bubble, but the movie was a box office bomb and was a very poorly reviewed film.
Only gonna comment about a few categories. I'm hoping Star Trek, 500 Days of Summer, or District 9 will help close out the ten nominees, but I am doubtful.
Best Actor: I'm pretty sure the five noms are all sewed up: Bridges, Clooney, Firth, Freeman, and Renner. If Freeman does get bumped for some reason, I'd love to see Sam Rockwell get a nom in recognition for his fantastic performance in Moon. He essentially carried that movie himself, being practically the only cast member you see. A smaller, more thought-provoking sci-fi film amidst 2009's juggernauts. I wish it'd gotten more recognition, and Rockwell's will be one of the most overlooked performances of 2009.
Best Actress: I think the top four noms are set: Bullock, Mulligan, Sidibe, and Streep. I am really hoping that the fifth slot doesn't go to Mirren, especially based on what you've said about it Brad. It doesn't sound like a worthy performance. My fifth pick would be the very very long shot, Melanie Laurent for Inglourious Basterds. In my opinion, it was the most subtly powerful performance of the year, and has been thoroughly overlooked in awards talk. With the little chance of her getting a nom, I am hoping the final slot will go to Emily Blunt.
Picture:
Avatar, A Serious Man, An Education, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Up, Up In The Air, Precious, Crazy Heart
Director: Bigelow, Cameron, Daniels, Reitman, Tarantino
Actor: Bridges, Clooney, Firth, Freeman, Renner
Actress: Blunt, Bullock, Mulligan, Sidibe, Streep
Supporting Actor: Harrelson, McKay, Mackie, Tucci, Waltz
Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique, Farmiga, Kendrick, Kruger, Morton
Picture: Avatar, Hurt Locker, Up in the Air, Precious, A Serious Man, An Education, Inglourious Basterds, UP, The Blindside, District 9.
Melanie Laurent gets in the Supporting Actress category.
I'm going out on a limb here and call Saldana sneaking into the Actress category.
What I am wondering is if a foreign film will be nominated for Best Picture. Because everyone, including you, has basically given The White Ribbon 5 stars (A+, whatever), and also in the press conference where the 10 nominees were announced, there was alot of emphasis on him saying "yes a foreign film could me nominated even if it was in another category". So I think that it should definitely be considered, and perhaps even swapped with 500 days of summer or Up. I personally think 500 days deserves a slot, and I am one of the few that found Up really boring and nothing fantatic or special.
Also, AS IF YOU DON'T THINK MORGAN FREEMAN SHOULD BE NOMINATED FOR INVICTUS!!!!!! From the first frame of that film, he completely became Mandela. He was BRILLIANT.
I'm bursting with pride that little 'In the Loop' got nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay. For my tastes, it was far and away the funniest film of the year, and it's lovely to see it get rewarded. Well done, Oscar bods!