Oscar Predictions: A Second Take on Thanksgiving, All Top Eight Categories

I think Australia should at least be mentioned in the original screenplay category.

Woo Hoo. Another "The Contenders" article!!! I love double B!!

I think most of these are real solid…I still have faith in Jenkins being this year's Julie Christie…and also I have a suspicion that Andrew Stanton will get some love either in screenplay or director for his visionary film…
Your supporting actress predictions are perfect

@Michael H.: I think you are the one who must be insane Michael H. Pretty much every Oscar pundit i have seen has given Slumdog Millionaire and Benjamin Button as nominees. I'm not sure about The Dark Knight, but it will have two big advantages, firstly, being re-released and secondly, they are going to campaign like crazy for it (they sure as hell have the money for it) and campaigning makes a hell of a difference.
On another topic, I hope Fincher, Nolan and Boyle all get director noms, they're some of my favourite contemporary directors.

I really think that you are forgetting Slumdog Millionaire for best picture. It's a STRONG Oscar contender, the critics love it, feel good story and is almost a guarantee.
I also think Dev Patel for best supporting actor is highly unlikely as he is the lead. There is a high chance Danny Boyle for best director will be nominated.

Other than the Slumdog snub the pics are great!

@Michael H.: I think Gran Torino is going to be a bust. I wasn't very pleased after watching the trailer, except of Eastwood's acting of course. If Eastwood doesn't get a best actor nob, i doubt it will get any major nomination.

As for "The Wrestler", I can see that getting nominated for Best Picture. But I think "Slumdog" has a better chance.

Why is DiCaprio #5? He's safer than Eastwood and Langella.

@Laurel: Wooo, i wouldn't go that far, Langella is a lock of a nob and one can argue Eastwood as well.

You are completely overrating Rachel Getting Married – such a puny film with such paltry box office has no chance whatsoever at director, best pic, or screenplay. Also, Woody Allen should be in first place for original screenplay and should be considered for director.

@Michael: He might have liked The Dark Knight more, but he isn't making a list of movies that he likes the most, he is making a list of predictions of what the academy will like the most.

For Example, One of his favorite movies this year, is Tropic Thunder. He didn't place Tropic Thunder under Best picture, because this isn't about what he likes it's about what the voters for the academy awards will like.

Understood?

I have never made a comment here before but after seeing three movies yesterday, three today, and hopefully another two tomorrow, I am getting into the groove. I haven't read all the comments, but I thought 'rachel getting married' was totally overrated, despite a brilliant performance by Anne Hathaway. If Jenny Lumet was in film school and not the daughter of Sidney, the script would get a D+. Also disappointing was 'Happy-Go-Lucky,' which despite its limited appeal, was really about not very much. This woman is in charge of 32 kids and can't even manage her own life? I was so let down especially since Mike Leigh gave us the beautiful 'Vera Drake' and the brilliant 'Secrets and Lies.' I don't think it has much of a chance for anything unless the critics love spotted faces, ugly decor, and bad British dental work.

'Australia' is beautifully filmed and the production design is gorgeous, but there's no there there. Nicole Kidman is playing another mannequin and can't hold the screen for 2.7 hours. Baz Luhrman would annoy even the Pope, so I give it shots in costume design, production design, and cinematography categories only.

The real surprise for me this weekend, so far, was 'Milk.' I think it vaults to the very top of the heap, especially since Oscar voters love biopics and for most people this will be a new story. Sean Penn seems to me a lock for at least a nomination and I think a second Oscar. Supporting cast is also excellent and could add another two or three nominations: James Franco, Josh Brolin, and Emile Hirsch. Should also be seen in the best picture, original script, direction, score, cinematography, costume design, and production design categories. I know everybody is saying 'Benjamin Button,' but I think this is the one to beat.

Tomorrow it's 'I've Loved You So Long' and James Bond, who I am falling out of love with. I'll report later.

One last thing: you say on Eastwood's chances of getting a best actor nod that sentimentality always plays a role. It usually does in the *supporting* categories, but not for the leads, where real merit usually wins out. Clint has four Oscars already, 'Changeling' is a *major* faux pas, and 'Gran Torino' looks like a very angry movie. I think it will be ignored.

@shaq: No Way!!

Not Happening.

Question about The Contenders:

Why do you still have "Body of Lies", "Miracle at St. Anna", "Appaloosa", and other non-contenders still in The Contenders section"?

Best Actor – Mickey Rourke – Absolutely.

@K.C.: Agreed. I think he's a lock for best actor.

Hey Jon, whoops. When I noticed the language for the film (on IMDB) listed as english/hindi, I assumed that there was an equal amount of Hindi of spoken in the flick. In that case, neeeevermind! (But I still think "Dark Knight" will be dissed for the pic category while Ledger will get the supporting actor nom — and very likely win).