Oscar Best Picture Predictions: 'Moneyball' and 'Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy' are On the Move
Three new films have moved into the top seven
I am still working out my predictions for the screenplay categories, but I hope to have at the very least my animation predictions for you by the end of the week. But over the last few days I've been mulling over the Best Picture category and I finally made some moves with seven films moving up and down the board, three of which are brand new to my top seven. Let's have a look.
I'll begin with this week's upcoming release of Moneyball. The "economics of baseball" picture is being loved from all corners and I expect that love to translate over to audiences as it is a film that has something for everyone. Seriously, if this film doesn't become a major hit I don't know what to blame it on. Brad Pitt graces the cover of Sports Illustrated and marketing can be seen all over the place. All that's left is for the film to top this weekend's box-office and it's on its way.
Explanation aside, Moneyball made the week's biggest leap, moving from the #11 position all the way to #4.
Just below Moneyball is the second newcomer to the top tier contenders, the silent film The Artist, which recently played at the Toronto International Film Festival and had come critics seeing (and loving) it for the first time and others seeing it again. The hard part for me with this one is that I enjoyed the film, but am not over the moon like so many others. However, the opinion seems to be in the film's favor so I am listening to the winds.
As I wrote in my explanation on the official Best Picture prediction page, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy had something of a stateside coming out party yesterday with screenings in New York and Los Angeles and both screenings resulted in some new love. Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere and Kris Tapley at In Contention both had glowing things to say about the film. Tapley focused a bit more on the design of the film, but both spoke very highly of Gary Oldman as well as members of the supporting cast.
Now, I have made sure to keep this one lower in the rankings for a reason, which is I don't see both Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy and David Fincher's The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo being nominated. If both hold up to expectations, it's going to be one or the other.
While I moved Dragon Tattoo down a notch today that doesn't mean it is out of the running in the slightest. Right now I would say I have at least ten serious contenders, as well as a few unseen others, that could begin leap-frogging to the top any minute. All this means is that we still have a long road ahead of us considering Dragon Tattoo and Tinker, Tailor both don't hit theaters until December.
Moving out of the top contenders are The Descendants, Midnight in Paris and The Ides of March, and if you head over to my official predictions page you will see I have a rash of scenarios where all three could ultimately find their way back above the bubble line. Moving up and down the Oscar prediction board isn't as simple as one film over another… though it should be.
So, with that I will tell you to click here to check out the updated chart and just below I have included the top seven as I see it at this moment.
- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (dir. Stephen Daldry)
- J. Edgar (dir. Clint Eastwood)
- War Horse (dir. Steven Spielberg)
- Moneyball (dir. Bennett Miller)
- The Artist (dir. Michel Hazanavicius)
- Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (dir. Tomas Alfredson)
- The Help (dir. Tate Taylor)
Now it's your turn. Have I made wrong moves in your opinion or does it look like we're getting closer to having an early jump on nailing all of the nominees? Speak up in the comments below!
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I disagree, there is no way Tailor Tinker Spy will not be nominated. It's the sort of film the Oscar members will love (and it looks brilliant too). An old school espionage thriller with such acting talent, and winning critics not featuring in the the Best Pic nomnations? no way.
Your downgrading of Midnight in Paris is a monumentally cretinous move and guarantees that I will not visit this site again, with ONE exception – I will return to confirm your stupidity when the nominations are announced.
If you refer to his review of Midnight in Paris, you will find that he enjoyed it immensely. Downgrading a film out of *possible* Best Picture nominees in no way makes it a bad film. The Academy has a knack for dramas, such as Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and J. Edgar (both of which I am salivating at the mouth for). Midnight in Paris was a huge success- financially and critically, it's just that no one is entirely sure where in the rankings it will end up come January.
I still think you're underestimating "Dragon Tattoo," however, you may be right, as the "Silence of the Lambs" and Fincher arguments aren't the strongest. Although I picked Winter's Bone over The Town, so you never know…
I wouldn't say I am underestimating it, those five or six films outside the top seven are pretty much a log jam and I don't do ties. It's a film I think could be just as easily in as it can be out and the only reason it's lower than the three ahead of it is because it hasn't been seen and the three ahead were just in the top seven.
Nice to see Moneyball in there; I'm really looking forward to seeing it this weekend. I guess the trickiest thing this year is figuring out which films will get the 5% first place vote that's required for a nomination. I have no issues with the order here (though I'm still not high on War Horse), but I'd probably shift my bubble line down a couple notches. Actually, toss War Horse out, shift the bubble line down to include The Descendents and Midnight in Paris and that would probably be my predicted field right now…eight films.
I saw Tinker Tailor last weekend (finally living in the UK has its perks) and while it's a great spy movie, I can almost guarantee that it won't land a Best Picture nomination. It's far too uncommercial for most viewers with only one moment of action that lasts around 10 seconds and the rest being a very talky, complexly woven web of mystery that many will struggle to understand.
Of course, I loved all that stuff, but when it comes to Oscar recognition, well, I'd be surprised if it made an impact outside of the technical and acting categories.
This is sad but looking back at what happened to Zodiac, your prediction could be true.
saw tinker tailor soldier spy yesterday, it was an alright movie and i dont know if this is at all in the academys whell house to be honest. i dont see gary oldman getting a nomination either, such a restrained performance. I see the ides of march, tinker tailor, and dragon tatttoo all vying for the same spot, interesting to see who takes it.
Is anyone SERIOUSLY going to put The Help at number one? I don't think so.
I saw Tinker Tailor too and I disagree with the two comments above. It's a fantastic movie all around and I'm sure it has a great shot at the Oscars.
And Gary Oldman will receive his first Oscar nomination. He is restrained but so mesmerizing I could not take my eyes off of him. Such a brilliant, brilliant performance.
Am I the only one that thinks Super 8 should get some recognition? I feel like that movie is seriously underrated.