Box Office Predictions

Box Office Predictions: 'Man of Steel' Will Soar, But How High?

Not as high as the cast and crew of 'This is the End', that's for sure!

Weekend Box-Office Predictions

Man of SteelMan of Steel tracking is all over the board, from $87 million (MTC) to $140 million (RS). That, my friends, is a hell of a variance. So while I'm not exactly middling the number with my $102 million prediction, I am saying MTC is a bit low, while the RS tracking is massively optimistic. Not sure who they were polling there, but it might have been Amy Adams' family.

Now then, $102 million might seem like a nice result, but once you factor in that hefty $225 million production budget you come up with the notion that Man of Steel will need to put up a 1:1 multiplier overseas to have any hope of turning a profit.

They've done a few clever things to help on that front, pulling in Christopher Nolan, not calling it "Superman" - and all while giving the film a "global" feel. Is any of this going to work? Maybe, a little, but I still hold that the overseas market isn't all-in on Americana, and that 1:1 multiplier is about all they can hope for, Captain America-style. Which means Warner Bros. has probably set up the franchise for future success, but this won't be a huge winner for them, unless Man of Steel can put up a number north of $125 million this weekend.

The other main wide release of the weekend is This is the End. I expect this to outperform expectations by a wide margin, though to be fair that's based largely on the $8 million dollar Wednesday the film just raked in. Clearly America passed on The Internship, but I believe that just left them yearning for something decent to see. This is that something.

Our final title of note, the small release of the week, is Before Midnight. This one is expanding to a healthy 600 theaters, and I've given it $6,000 per for a total of $3.6 million and a tenth place finish, a slight upgrade on the previous version's performance. I don't know why a huge swath of people would choose to jump on this ship this late into the narrative, but if you've got a theory as to why, by all means, let's hear it.

With that said, what's your take on Man of Steel, This is the End, and Before Midnight? We've got a new, most awesome, prediction game coming, so get your final practice reps in!

Current Streak: Zero weekends in a row.
Chances of Streak Being Broken: Zero percent.
Reason: Man of Steel will win going away.

Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
Man of Steel: $87 million
This is the End: $12 million

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We'll have the actual counts in Sunday's wrap-up article.

Laremy's Box-Office Predictions for June 14 - June 16, 2013

  1. Man of Steel was #1 at the box-office
    • Man of Steel
    • $102 million
    • THEATERS: 4,250 ($24,000 per theater)
    • BUDGET: $225 million
    • ROTTEN TOMATOES: 56%
  2. This is the End () - $22.9 million
    Playing in 3,055 theaters ($7,496 avg.) / $32 million budget / 84%
  3. Now You See Me () - $13.3 million
    Playing in 3,020 theaters ($4,404 avg.) / $75 million budget / 47%
  4. The Purge () - $11.9 million
    Playing in 2,536 theaters ($4,692 avg.) / $3 million budget / 38%
  5. Fast & Furious 6 () - $11.5 million
    Playing in 3,400 theaters ($3,382 avg.) / $160 million budget / 69%
  6. The Internship () - $9.2 million
    Playing in 3,366 theaters ($2,733 avg.) / $58 million budget / 36%
  7. Star Trek Into Darkness () - $6.6 million
    Playing in 2,600 theaters ($2,538 avg.) / $190 million budget / 87%
  8. Epic () - $6.1 million
    Playing in 2,850 theaters ($2,140 avg.) / $100 million budget / 64%
  9. After Earth () - $5.4 million
    Playing in 3,401 theaters ($1,588 avg.) / $130 million budget / 11%
  10. Before Midnight () - $3.6 million
    Playing in 600 theaters ($6,000 avg.) / $3 million budget / 98%
Click here to browse our box-office charts and compare Laremy's predictions
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  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/ArthurCarlson/ Arthur Carlson

    1. Man of Steel - $120M Going big or going home. Actually I planned on going home after work today anyway.

    2. This is the End - $26.6M

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Winchester/ Winchester

    Too much variation and possibilities.

    I'm thinking mid Twenties PTA should be doable so I'm going to say $109.4 million for Man of Steel.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Winchester/ Winchester

      Although, as I wondered last week would a less than $100 million OW represent one of those bizarre instances where an opening weekend would be considered a disappointment? I think WB is playing the lowball game with it's projections but I think if it came in at that level there would be private disappoitment within.

      A little like the OW of Star Trek Into Darkness (although it's actually managed to save more face than it looked it would at the start)

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Hudsucker/ Hudsucker

    Man of Steel-$116.2 million
    This is the End-29.1 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/AndrewJ.S./ Andrew J.S.

    Man of Steel - $125
    This Is The End - $31
    Now You See Me - $15.2
    The Purge - $15.1
    Fast & Furious 6 - $14.8
    Epic - $9.9
    The Internship - $9.6
    Star Trek Into Darkness - $9.4
    Hangover III - $6.7
    After Earth - $6.5
    Iron Man 3 - $ 5.2

  • Frank Foster

    I'm thinking $107 million for Man of Steel

  • rvastar

    On a non-holiday weekend, I would have said $125M. But Father's Day is going to hurt it, so I'd bet $112M.

  • http://www.twitter.com/GregDinskisk GregDinskisk

    Before Midnight might be performing better because people over the past 18 years have seen the two films on DVD/bluray and loved them. That's my guess, at least.

  • http://www.scifiblock.com John D.

    I'm going to go a bit lower on Man of Steel:

    1. Man of Steel - $90.1 million
    2. This Is The End - $22 million

  • http://www.smartfilm.blogspot.com SmartFilm

    1. Man o' Steel - 107.2M
    2. This is the End - 29.6M

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/MovieFan/ Movie Fan

    - Man of Steel: $126.5 million
    - This is the End: $25.8 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/utahprime/ Mark Depew

    What is RS tracking?
    Thanks...

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      Company called ReelSource.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/ldm2006/ ldm2006

    Man of Steel- 142.5
    This is the End-30.1

  • http://cineenuruguay.blogspot.com/ Driver

    Man of Steel - 127.4
    This is the End - 30.1

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Anthony_X/ Anthony_X

    ERC says Before Midnight expands to 897 theaters, so I think $5M is achievable.

    Man Of Steel reception has been pretty mediocre but I believe that is going to be a huge hit among general audience. So I'm going all Nikki on you and say $130M. If I nail it I'll say Toldja! If not.. We will let it slide...

  • Aidan Khan

    Man of steel: 111 million

  • Chris Etrata

    Man of Steel: 106.5 million
    This Is The End: 23.4 million

  • http://letterboxd.com/gman/ G-Man

    1) Man of Steel - $103 million
    2) This Is The End - $25 million
    3) The Purge - $17 million
    4) Fast & Furious 6 - $9 million
    4) Now You See Me - $8 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Athar/ Athar

    1. Man of Steel - $ 134.8 million
    I don't know how, but in a summer which had Iron Man 3, Fast 6, Hangover 3 and Star Trek 2, Warner Bros has successfully managed to make Man of Steel the Biggest Movie of the Season. The Overseas multiplier for this one should be strong and even a $400 million Overseas is a possibility (so far the only figures available are from Philippines where it had the biggest opening day ever). Superman is probably the most famous superhero around the world and with the kind of marketing that has been done on this one, i think Warner Bros would have no trouble in making profits.

    2. This is the End - $ 23.5 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/EPayneDDS/ EPayneDDS

    Man of Steel $109.5

  • Steven Cole

    Man of Steel - $148.5
    This Is The End - $30.1

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ryguy815/ Ryguy815

    I know this doesn't have much to do with box office but Man Of Steel is officially rotten on RT..can you believe it? I'm pretty shocked myself.

    • Adam James

      Warner Bros. did a truly outstanding job of controlling the buzz on the film. They got good traction on the first word that the film was "outstanding" and "the movie of the summer", even though that all came from internal WB showings of it, and yet many film sites reported those reactions as gospel. They selected some good people to see the film early and give Twitter reactions to further fan the high expectations, and then the critics embargo allowed them to start the week with high praise and a number of articles about how the first full reviews were all glowing.

      And then the steady stream of bad to average reviews came pouring in for the rest of the week. Until that point, no one had any reason to think the film was anything less than a triumph.

      I honestly don't think the negative reviews will hurt them much at all, as a result.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/TheMovieGuru/ The Movie Guru

    1. Man of Steel- $105 million- People, if Man of Steel makes this much money, that is a huge win. No superhero first installment has made this much opening weekend besides Spider-Man. I think that Man of Steel will eventually turn a profit

    2. This is the End- $25 million (3-day)- I'm surprised that the Cinemascore is so low on this one, but it should still be good.

    3. Now You See Me- $12.4 million

    4. The Purge- $10.9 million

    5. Fast and Furious 6- $10.6 million

    6. The Internship- $8 million

    7. Epic- $7.8 million

    8. Star Trek Into Darkness- $6 million

    9. Iron Man 3- $4 million

    10. After Earth- $3.3 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/CJohn/ CJohn

    Man of Steel - 91.1M
    This is the End - 22.4M

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Zevastian/ Zevastian

    Man of Steel - 118.5
    This is the End - 29.8

    I don't live in USA but I can tell you Laremy that there are A LOT places overseas where people are dying to see this movie and where it's going to break records. It will have a huge overseas opening and a great whole run in my opinion. Warner Bros shouldn't worry about a thing.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/utahprime/ Mark Depew

    What does OW stand for?
    Thanks

    • Adam James

      In this context, likely "Opening Weekend".

  • cineJAB

    1. Man of Steel: $88.7 Million
    2. This Is The End: $36.4 Million

    I know I plan on seeing both of these this weekend. I feel like Man of Steel is the biggest wildcard in a long while, it could really hit and make up to $145 or it could really miss and end up below 70. Either way I think it has legs. I think This Is the End will really hit.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Will-E/ Will-E

    Man of Steel could go so many directions. Superman Returns opened at 52.5 back in 06 sporting then best comic book director Bryan Singer. Its not going that low, but it probably won't go 3x that either. Iron Man opened at 98 with 4100 theaters, and I can see a similar mix of reserved excitment here. I'm going 107.8 mil.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ian/ Ian

    Man of Steel, $126 million. I'm going big...it seems like the box office has been in a holding pattern for this film for the last two weekends, and even though bad reviews have been pouring in I agree with Adam James about how well WB manipulated the buzz on this.

    This is the End, $23 million.

    Before Midnight, $4 million.

    I didn't realize Before Midnight was going semi-wide so quickly so I haven't had time to watch Sunrise and Sunset yet. So I'm going to see This is the End and Man of Steel (which will be the first Superman movie I've seen) this weekend, make sure to catch Sunrise and Sunset during the week and then see Before Midnight next weekend.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/JNFilms/ JN Films

    Man of Steel $135 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/austinjoel/ austinjoel

    Man of Steel - $119.8M
    This is the End - $33.4M
    The Purge - $15.2M

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/andyluvsfilms/ andyluvsfilms

    Man of Steel $115.7
    This Is The End $27.7

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Jaylav3205/ Jason Lavender

    1. Man Of Steel - $114.8M
    2. This Is The End - $31.8M
    3. The Purge - $13.4M

    I will be seeing Man Of Steel in IMAX with no 3D this weekend. Can't wait. I already saw This Is The End and it was good.

  • Josh McLaughlin

    I'm going conservative with an $80 million weekend. I would go higher, but I have a hunch that the bad reviews will hurt it a little bit. However, I hope it does well (somewhere within a $95-$105 million+ opening).

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Torryz/ Torryz

    Man of Steel at $85mil

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Beautifulm/ Beautifulm

    Man of Steel 112M
    This is The End 34M

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

    I'm going with lucky 7 as in $107 million for Man of Steel
    This is the End-$19.5 million
    I think Man of Steel will rule the weekend and draw in any feeble minded indecisive movie goers

  • JA

    Man of Steel $115M
    This is the End $27.5M

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/coltonhaynes22/ coltonhaynes22

    1. Man of steel: $113.8 million 2. This is the End: $27.2 million(3day) 39.6 million (5day) 3. Now you see me: $11.4 million 4. The purge: $11.2 million 5. Furious 6: $9.5 million 6. The internship: $9.3 million 7. Star trek 2: $7.2 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/RyanJayden/ Ryan Jayden

    Man Of Steel - $130 million
    This Is The End - $27.5 million
    Before Midnight - $3.8 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/topyxyz/ topyxyz

    Man of Steel - $100M
    This Is The End - $24.3M

  • Bazellis

    Man of Steel - $136.5m

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Cordia/ Cordia

    a bit late,

    Man of steel - 107.5 million
    This is The end 28.5 million
    Before Midnight - 3.1 million

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Cordia/ Cordia

      meanwhile, boxoffice mojo thinks it will open at 139 million (Man of Steel)

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Roger/ Roger Judd

    Man of Steel: 109.2M
    This Is The End: 24.8M
    Catch Me If You Can 11.4M
    The Purge 10.1M
    Fast Furious 6: 9.8M

  • Matthew Healing

    Man of Steel: 118.2M
    This Is The End: 26.5M
    Before Midnight:3.5M

  • Matthew Healing

    As a 30 year old that only stumbled across the "Before" Movies recently, I will be seeing Before Midnight in NYC Tonight. I'm sure there any many other people that only came across the series in the DVD/Blue-Ray phase over the last 9 years. My fiance and I have been blown away by the first 2 movies and can't wait to enjoy Before Midnight this evening!

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/maja/ maja

    I have a feeling that Man of Steel will be big...

    1. Man of Steel - $141.3m
    2. This is the End - $25.2m
    3. The Purge - $10.9m

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/lalecture/ lalecture

    One other thought, Man of Steel better make some good money this weekend, because next weekend starts World War Z and White House Down, not to mention Monster's U. That is unless the Dad's have the kids and proceed to drop them off to watch Monster's U while Daddy watches the action and super hero movies!