Jack the Giant Slayer should have no problem capturing the weekend crown, they've marketed it to hell and back, plus the main competition is Rated R. I see it pulling in the family and fantasy fans and besting tracking to settle in at $35 million.
The sour note for Warner Bros. is that the opening number extrapolates out to around $100 million domestic, but the budget was a staggering $195 million. Thus, they will need something approaching half a billion dollars worldwide to feel good about the project. Ouchie. They might just get it, but they'll be sweating out the next month, that is a ton of money to spend on a non-franchise / non-superhero film.
Next up, 21 and Over certainly looks like this year's Project X. This is another film I like to exceed tracking, I'm throwing out an $18 million seeing how it's all alone in its respective demographic. They didn't screen it for us, but early reviews aren't positive. Then again, this isn't aimed at guys and gals over 50, so it should be a relatively "review-proof" film.
The Last Exorcism: Part II is a classic example of how I'd run my imaginary studio (Mark Cuban, call me, I could fix Lionsgate for you). With a miniscule $3.5 million production budget, it will easily hit a profit in its first five days; this weekend could be around $14 million. That's financial responsibility, even if the product being put out might be inferior (another "not screened for critics" special).
Lastly, I don't have Phantom cracking the top ten. You might, I wouldn't be angry with you, but it looks to be DOA in terms of marketing. It's being released by a company called RCR Distribution, it seems to be their first film. And possibly last? Nah, let's give them the benefit of the doubt, perhaps they made it on the cheap and leaned on Ed Harris to star.
That's all from this guy, the most withering drops in terms of the holdovers should come from Snitch and A Good Day to Die Hard, both of which look like total skips if you haven't seen them yet.
How say you? Four new releases on the boards, so get to predicting!
Current Streak: Five weekends in a row.
Chances of Streak Being Broken: 12 percent
Reason: I see no reason Jack and the Giant Slayer will be far enough under tracking to make this a legit horse race.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
Jack the Giant Slayer: $29 million
21 and Over: $14 million
The Last Exorcism: Part II: $12 million
Phantom: $2 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We'll have the actual counts in Sunday's wrap-up article.
Laremy's Box-Office Predictions for March 1 - March 3, 2013
-
- Jack the Giant Slayer
- A New Line Cinema release
- $35.3 million
- THEATERS: 3,525 ($10,014 per theater)
- BUDGET: $195 million
- ROTTEN TOMATOES: 52%
- 21 and Over (Relativity Media) - $18 million
Playing in 2,771 theaters ($6,496 avg.) / $13 million budget / 29%
- The Last Exorcism Part II (CBS Films) - $14.3 million
Playing in 2,600 theaters ($5,500 avg.) / $5 million budget / 13%
- Identity Thief (Universal Pictures) - $9.1 million
Playing in 3,222 theaters ($2,824 avg.) / $35 million budget / 20%
- Escape from Planet Earth (The Weinstein Co.) - $6.5 million
Playing in 3,353 theaters ($1,939 avg.) / $40 million budget
- Snitch (Summit Entertainment) - $6 million
Playing in 2,511 theaters ($2,389 avg.) / $35 million budget / 57%
- Safe Haven (Relativity Media) - $5.3 million
Playing in 3,223 theaters ($1,644 avg.) / $28 million budget / 13%
- Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Co.) - $4.7 million
Playing in 1,750 theaters ($2,686 avg.) / $21 million budget / 92%
- A Good Day To Die Hard (20th Century Fox) - $4.6 million
Playing in 3,555 theaters ($1,294 avg.) / $92 million budget / 15%
- Dark Skies (Dimension Films) - $4.5 million
Playing in 2,000 theaters ($2,250 avg.) / $4 million budget / 30%
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'Inside Llewyn Davis' (2013) Movie Review - Cannes Film Festival
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Jack the giant slayer- $32.2 million
21 and over- $12.4 million
The last exorcism 2- $9.8 million
Jack the Giant Slayer - 36.5
21 and Over - 20.4
The Last Exorcism Part II - 10.4
Slow weekend at the box office but OZ should make over 100 million next weekend.
Jack: 18.2 million
21 and Over: 8.2 million
Last Exorcism 2: 6.2 million.
Phantom 700k
Jack Giant Killer 24.6m
LE 2 19m
21 and Over 9.7m
Jack 47 million
21 & Over 22 million
Last Ex.. 19 million
Jack- 34.2 million
Last Exorcism 2- 15.4 million
21 and over- 8.8 million
1. Jack the Giant Slayer - $27M
2. 21 and Over - $11.3M
3. Identity Thief - $10M
4. The Last Exorcism Part II - $8.4M
1. Jack the Giant Slayer- $21 million
2. 21 and Over- $15 million
3. Last Exorcism Part 2- $8.5 million
4. Snitch- $7 million
5. Identity Thief- $6.5 million
6. Escape From Planet Earth- $5.5 million
7. Safe Haven- $4 million
8. Good Day to Die Hard- $3.5 million
9. Dark Skies- $3 million
10. Silver Linings Playbook- $2 million
Jack The Giant Slayer - 24.3M
21 and Over - 17.2M
The Exorcism Part II - 11.7M
Phantom - 1.3M
Giant Slayer - 38
21 & Over - 16.5
Exorcism 2 - 12
Id Thief - 7.5
Safe Haven - 6
Escape - 5.5
Snitch - 5.3
Silver Linings - 4.3
Die Hard - 4.25
Phantom - 4
Dark Skies - 3.8
Giant Slayer- 30.1 million
Exorcism 2- 15.9 million
21 & Over- 14.1 million
21 and Over -- 12,49 mln
Jack the Giant Killer -- 39,43 mln
Phantom -- 3,74 mln
The Last Exorcism part II - 8,36 mln
1. Jack the Giant Slayer - $33.5 million
2. The Last Exorcism 2 - $15.4 million
3. 21 and Over - $14.4 million
4. Identity Thief - $7.4 million
5. Escape from Planet Earth - $6.6 million
6. Snitch - $5.9 million
7. Silver Linings Playbook - $5.0 million
8. Safe Haven - $4.7 million
9. Phantom - $4.2 million
10. A Good Day to Die Hard - $3.4 million
1. Jack the Giant Slayer- $35.3 million
2. 21 and Over- $18.8 million
3. The Last Exorcism Part 2- $ 5.5 million
4. Identity Thief- $7.1 million
5. Snitch- $5.7 million
whoops i meant 15.5 for last exorcism part 2
1. Jack the Giant Slayer - $24.7 million (My friend said it was good, so I'll see it this weekend...)
2.) The Last Exorcism: Part 2 - $17.3 million (hah, that name has amused me since I heard of it...)
3.) 21 and Over - $8.8 million (this is probably just me hating on this movie, which I hated: http://www.youwoncannes.com/2013/03/01/21-and-over-2013-jon-lucas-scott-moore/)
...
14.) Phantom - $650 Thousand
My Predix
1. Jack the Giant Slayer
2. 21 and Over
3. Identity Thief
4. The Last Exorcism part 2
5. Snitch
6. Escape from Planet Earth
7. Safe Heaven
8. Phantom
9. A Good Day to Die Hard
10. Silver Linings Playbook
Limited predix: The Sweeney will outgun Stoker (get your trousers on, you're nicked!).
Damien Lewis is in it, who will bring in the Homeland audience, stunt credits include Jeremy Clarkson, James May and Richard Hammond, who will bring in the Top Gear audience, Ray Winstone is arguably more bankable than Nicole Kidman in recent years and Ben Drew aka Plan B is one of the pre-eminant rappers of the moment.
1.Jack The Giant Slayer $42 million
2.21 and Over $28 million
3.The Last Exorcism Part II $13 million