Iron Man 3 is going to be so huge this weekend that they may actually just come to your house and make you buy a ticket. It's getting IMAX dollars, 3D dollars, The Avengers follow-up money, sequel money, and crossover demographic cash. Even more bonus, absolutely nothing stands in its path, every other studio has cleared out, making way for the potential finale to Robert Downey Jr.'s opus.
There's not a whole lot to break down this weekend once you get past Iron Man 3's number, which we'll get to in a moment, unless Mud gets a larger expansion than I'm aware of.
Pain & Gain is going to sink like a stone, people pretty much hated it as was reflected in the C+ Cinemascore. General audiences tend to give everything at least a B+, so you can pretty much discount the current marketing angle of "Everyone loved it!" Much as with myself and Brad, people didn't see the point of all that mayhem.
Back to the only game in town, can Iron Man 3 top The Avengers all-time record of $207 million? I'm guessing the answer is no, and this phenomenon could eventually lead to problems for the downstream Marvel projects. Once you've seen all the superheroes in one movie, does a lone hero in a single film hold the same appeal?
In terms of broad appeal with the Avengers heroes, Iron Man is the closest you're going to get, but this could end up being the final Downey Jr. edition, and none of the other character franchises are nearly as strong. As such, it's not unreasonable to predict a ten percent "not big enough" penalty, making my number of $186 million a call I feel good about.
If you're looking for precedent, Iron Man 2 opened at $128 million, a great number, but still a far cry from the record. If you wanted to call for something huge around $210 million you'd probably have to cite The Dark Knight opening $110 million above Batman Begins, but I don't think the comparison there is particularly strong.
My number is already above tracking, so a lower call wouldn't be out of order, and in fact seems more probable given the massive numbers we're considering. Still, you have to love how Iron Man 3 opened internationally, it stands at $300 million and is still going strong, so there's conflicting information each direction, though we're all quite used to that by now. Here's where the art and science of predicting comes in, so I leave you to it. Get some!
Current Streak: Twelve weekends in a row.
Chances of Streak Being Broken: Negative infinity percent.
Reason: I'm looking forward to a long and fruitful summer run, starting right about now.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
Iron Man 3: $174 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We'll have the actual counts in Sunday's wrap-up article.
Laremy's Box-Office Predictions for May 3 - May 5, 2013
- Oblivion (Universal Pictures) - $9.1 million
Playing in 3,792 theaters ($2,400 avg.) / $120 million budget / 55%
- Pain and Gain (Paramount Pictures) - $8.7 million
Playing in 3,277 theaters ($2,655 avg.) / $26 million budget
- 42 (Warner Bros.) - $7 million
Playing in 3,405 theaters ($2,056 avg.) / $40 million budget / 77%
- The Croods (DreamWorks Animation) - $4.3 million
Playing in 2,800 theaters ($1,536 avg.) / $135 million budget / 69%
- The Big Wedding (Lionsgate) - $3.5 million
Playing in 2,633 theaters ($1,329 avg.) / $35 million budget / 7%
- Mud (Roadside Attractions) - $2.2 million
Playing in 500 theaters ($4,400 avg.) / $10 million budget / 99%
- G.I. Joe: Retaliation (Paramount Pictures) - $1.6 million
Playing in 2,000 theaters ($800 avg.) / $130 million budget / 28%
- The Place Beyond the Pines (Focus Features) - $1.5 million
Playing in 1,584 theaters ($947 avg.) / $15 million budget / 81%
- Scary Movie 5 (Dimension Films) - $1.4 million
Playing in 2,000 theaters ($700 avg.) / $20 million budget / 4%
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