Box Office Predictions

Box Office Predictions: 'Iron Man 3' Looks to Break Records

The second-biggest opening weekend of all time!

Weekend Box-Office Predictions

Iron Man 3Iron Man 3 is going to be so huge this weekend that they may actually just come to your house and make you buy a ticket. It's getting IMAX dollars, 3D dollars, The Avengers follow-up money, sequel money, and crossover demographic cash. Even more bonus, absolutely nothing stands in its path, every other studio has cleared out, making way for the potential finale to Robert Downey Jr.'s opus.

There's not a whole lot to break down this weekend once you get past Iron Man 3's number, which we'll get to in a moment, unless Mud gets a larger expansion than I'm aware of.

Pain & Gain is going to sink like a stone, people pretty much hated it as was reflected in the C+ Cinemascore. General audiences tend to give everything at least a B+, so you can pretty much discount the current marketing angle of "Everyone loved it!" Much as with myself and Brad, people didn't see the point of all that mayhem.

Back to the only game in town, can Iron Man 3 top The Avengers all-time record of $207 million? I'm guessing the answer is no, and this phenomenon could eventually lead to problems for the downstream Marvel projects. Once you've seen all the superheroes in one movie, does a lone hero in a single film hold the same appeal?

In terms of broad appeal with the Avengers heroes, Iron Man is the closest you're going to get, but this could end up being the final Downey Jr. edition, and none of the other character franchises are nearly as strong. As such, it's not unreasonable to predict a ten percent "not big enough" penalty, making my number of $186 million a call I feel good about.

If you're looking for precedent, Iron Man 2 opened at $128 million, a great number, but still a far cry from the record. If you wanted to call for something huge around $210 million you'd probably have to cite The Dark Knight opening $110 million above Batman Begins, but I don't think the comparison there is particularly strong.

My number is already above tracking, so a lower call wouldn't be out of order, and in fact seems more probable given the massive numbers we're considering. Still, you have to love how Iron Man 3 opened internationally, it stands at $300 million and is still going strong, so there's conflicting information each direction, though we're all quite used to that by now. Here's where the art and science of predicting comes in, so I leave you to it. Get some!

Current Streak: Twelve weekends in a row.
Chances of Streak Being Broken: Negative infinity percent.
Reason: I'm looking forward to a long and fruitful summer run, starting right about now.

Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
Iron Man 3: $174 million

SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We'll have the actual counts in Sunday's wrap-up article.

Laremy's Box-Office Predictions for May 3 - May 5, 2013

  1. Iron Man 3 was #1 at the box-office
  2. Oblivion () - $9.1 million
    Playing in 3,792 theaters ($2,400 avg.) / $120 million budget / 55%
  3. Pain and Gain () - $8.7 million
    Playing in 3,277 theaters ($2,655 avg.) / $26 million budget
  4. 42 () - $7 million
    Playing in 3,405 theaters ($2,056 avg.) / $40 million budget / 77%
  5. The Croods () - $4.3 million
    Playing in 2,800 theaters ($1,536 avg.) / $135 million budget / 69%
  6. The Big Wedding () - $3.5 million
    Playing in 2,633 theaters ($1,329 avg.) / $35 million budget / 7%
  7. Mud () - $2.2 million
    Playing in 500 theaters ($4,400 avg.) / $10 million budget / 99%
  8. G.I. Joe: Retaliation () - $1.6 million
    Playing in 2,000 theaters ($800 avg.) / $130 million budget / 28%
  9. The Place Beyond the Pines () - $1.5 million
    Playing in 1,584 theaters ($947 avg.) / $15 million budget / 81%
  10. Scary Movie 5 () - $1.4 million
    Playing in 2,000 theaters ($700 avg.) / $20 million budget / 4%
Click here to browse our box-office charts and compare Laremy's predictions
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  • http://www.smartfilm.blogspot.com SmartFilm

    I'm thinking IM3 will hit somewhere around 188.9M
    Followed by P+G for around 9.7 and Oblivs for 8.9

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Athar/ Athar

    Iron Man 3 - $ 178 million

    What a way to kickstart the Summer. Again like last year, the first release of the summer would be the biggest grosser.

  • http://www.twitter.com/marlonwallace marlonwallace

    i'm taking the $208 million opening. $0 of that will come from me, hmm, maybe.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/MarioLudwinski/ Mario Ludwinski

      Nice courage!

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/RyanJayden/ Ryan Jayden

    Iron Man 3 - $177.7 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/navaneethks/ navaneethks

    Iron Man 3 - $167.8 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/PocketsOtool/ PocketsOtool

    Iron Man 3 - ...$167.2m

  • Bazellis

    Iron Man 3 - 192m

  • http://letterboxd.com/gman/ G-Man

    1) Iron Man 3 - $170 million
    2) Oblivion - $10.1 million
    3) Pain & Gain - $7.8 million
    4) The Croods - $6.2 million
    5) 42 - $5.1 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Winchester/ Winchester

    I haven't really had time to think about it so it's fairly freewheelin' but I'll go with -

    Iron Man 3 - $182.7 million.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/coltonhaynes22/ coltonhaynes22

    1. Iron Man 3: $173.3 million seeing it tonight in IMAX 3D.
    2. Pain and Gain: $9.7 million
    3. Oblivion: $9.3 million
    4. 42: $6.8 million
    5. The Croods: $4.5 million
    6. The Big Wedding: $4.1 million
    7. G.I. Joe 2: $2.4 million
    8. Mud: $1.8 million
    9. The Place Beyond the Pines: $1.6 million
    10. Scary Movie V: $1.6 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/andyluvsfilms/ andyluvsfilms

    Iron Man 3 - $166 Million

  • http://www.twitter.com/GregDinskisk GregDinskisk

    Iron Man 3 - $197.5 big bones here (big bones are millions, for those of you that don't know technical economic terms)

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Jack/ Jack Tyler

    Iron Man 3- $166 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ian/ Ian

    I'm gonna say $177 million with absolutely no data whatsoever to support that number. There's really no precedent here. I'm seeing it tomorrow night; hopefully it will be closer to the fun that the first film was as opposed to the two-hour commercial that was the second.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ian/ Ian

      I'm changing my prediction: going with $157 million now. I was crunching raw numbers earlier, not PTA.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Corbin/ Corbin

    Iron Man 3- I'll say $174.3 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/MovieFan/ Movie Fan

    Iron Man 3: $171.5 million

  • http://www.shawgoestothemovies.blogspot.com B-Shaw

    Laremy, what is the longest streak you have had?

    • http://www.film.com/author/laremy-legel Laremy Legel

      Getting close to it, I think about 14 or so.

  • Chris Etrata

    Iron Man 3: 182 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Roger/ Roger Judd

    Iron Man 3 - 190.7M
    Oblivion 8.2M
    Pain & Gain 6.9M

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Ryguy815/ Ryguy815

    I'm going to go $197 million for Iron Man 3.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/TheMovieGuru/ The Movie Guru

    1. Iron Man 3- $193.7 million
    2. Oblivion- $9.6 million
    3. Pain & Gain- $8 million
    4. 42- $6.7 million
    5. The Croods- $4.8 million

  • http://cineenuruguay.blogspot.com/ Driver

    Iron Man 3 - 193 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/xfinity/ xfinity

    Iron Man 3: 12.2 million
    Pain and Gain: 15.2 million

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/FUTURENOLAN/ Jesse Bodyshield

    Iron Man 3 174.6

    Am I the only one who doesn't feel too excited for this movie?

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Artorious/ Steve Stager

      No, I'm the same way. RDJ's Iron Man is starting to wear thin on me. Hell, the whole Marvel Universe kind of is.

      • Chris Etrata

        You two seemed to be the only ones getting tired. While Iron Man 2 disappointed in comparison to the first, The Avengers was terrific and got me excited about iron man 3.

  • http://www.theoriolereport.com Bob Phelan

    Iron Man 3 - 189.9

    Pain and Gain - 9.5

    Oblivion - 8.5

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/Artorious/ Steve Stager

    Iron Man 3 $175.5m

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/JustPete/ Just Pete

    Given the crap that has been served to moviegoers over the past couple of weeks, I am actually hoping Iron Man 3 would overtake the Avengers. Still I'll be a bit cautious and go for $201m

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/profile/MarioLudwinski/ Mario Ludwinski

    This is a great opportunity to show some courage, so...

    Iron Man 3 -- 210 mln (4253 theaters, $49377 per theater)