'Inception' Bests 'Schmucks' in the Box-Office Wrap-Up
Third week at the top for 'Inception' but is this the end of its reign?
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| Inception has made predicting the #1 slot pretty easy as of late with its third time taking the top spot at the weekend box-office. Looking through commenter predictions from Laremy's Oracle article "imaRinger" was just off with a $27.3 million prediction. Next week the stiffest competition comes from The Other Guys and Step Up 3D. One has Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg and the other is a franchise film, of which Step Up 2 the Streets opened with $18.9 million in 2008 without the help of 3D ticket prices. Will Inception still be able to hold off the competition or are we looking at a second or even third place finish? Result: $27.5 million Laremy's rank Laremy picked it to finish #1 and my prediction of $29.96 million was $2.46m off for a percentage error of 8.95%. | |
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Of course, Date Night and Despicable Me were able to hold on at the box-office while Schmucks is likely to disappear very quickly, but I just don't quite understand how some people are writing him off… not just yet at least.
Laremy's rank Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $18.84 million, which is $4.46m off for a 19.14% error.
As for reader predictions, "WillE" was closest on this one with a $19 million call.
Laremy's rank Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $21.6 million, which is $2.4m off for a 12.5% error.
The closest user prediction on this one belonged to "Matt" with a $15.8 million call.
Laremy's rank Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $18.91 million, which is $3.41m off for a 22% error.
Reader picks on this one ranged from $9.4 to $25.9, but "Ryan Hoffman" hit it on the head with $12.5.
Laremy's rank Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $24.08 million, which is $11.58m off for a 92.64% error.
Laremy's rank Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $13.57 million, which is $1.47m off for a 12.15% error.
Laremy's rank Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $5.53 million, which is $0.53m off for a 10.6% error.
Laremy's rank Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $4.68 million, which is $0.18m off for a 4% error.
Laremy's rank Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $6.5 million, which is $2.2m off for a 51.16% error.
The biggest surprise this weekend for me is probably the fact Ramona and Beezus is already out of the top ten. Sure, it was made for a reported $15 million and has now grossed just over $16 million, but I don't understand how something like Diary of a Wimpy Kid (another $15 million budget) does so great and this one can't find similar footing.
Laremy's rank Not Ranked
So there we have it. Ten slots. Ten films. Next week we have The Other Guys, Step Up 3D and Middle Men. Middle Men is opening rather small and will have to work hard for a slot, but all eyes will likely be on the top three slots to see just how long Inception can hold on as it will easily be over $200 million by the time it enters its fourth weekend.
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My guess with Inception is that it will end somewhere between $265-$280 million in the states which is quite solid considering the doubts so many people had about this film being successful.
Sadly though, my guess is that Inception will lose next weekend to The Other Guys.
P.S It will still kick Step Up 3-D's ass
Yeah. I think that's prett good. I saw it again yesterday, and I loved it all over again. Deffinatly deservant of a Best Picture Nomination.
The Other Guys looks fucking HILARIOUS. I think if it does well, we may see more funnier roles for Mark Whalberg.
Completely agreed, The Other Guys has probably been one of my most anticipated comedies. The Ferrell/Wahlberg pairing, along with the supporting cast should be fantastic fun.
Though it remains to be seen if Wahlberg will give a funnier performance than he did in The Happening….
Dinner for Schmucks opening better than some predicted was due to the fact that there hasn't been a straight up comedy since Grown Ups opened five weeks ago. It is more likely to drop off quickly because it's not a very strong film itself (and it's the kind of film that should have in order to do better), plus The Other Guys has wider appeal.
I bet "The Other Guys" makes a good 30-40 million next weekend. Audiences love any movie Will Ferrell does (and the PG-13 rating will help it immensely. "Talladega Nights" opened at 47 million back in 06, so I bet this title comes close to that.
But it's been a LONG four years for Ferrell since Talladega Nights.
True but this is more similar to that than Talladega Nights. I don't think it will open as high, though. Mid-30s opening sounds reasonable.
What about Step Brothers? That was only 2 years ago and from the seme helmer.
Christ I hope not. That thing looks awful.
Other Guys is probably Farell's last chance of getting the people to watch his movies again.
Still don't understand why Cat & Dogs got 800 more theaters then Schmucks.
3D screens probably.
Inception three-peats! The world is good!
But yeah, it's probably looking at third place next weekend. It'll be interesting to see how much The Other Guys takes away from Schmucks. If Inception's WOM stays strong, it shouldn't leave the Top 5 for at least a couple more weeks.
I'm thinking Step Up 3D will do well. The soundtrack is selling o.k. already, and Disney, very smartly, put a big advertisement on the teen choice awards voting home page. 83 million votes were cast last year.
I estimate around 200,000 avid Zac Efron fans rushed out to see Charlie St. Cloud on friday for an extra $1.8 million dollars. Efron was very courageous to pick a film with little built in support. Maybe he should have given Ray Liotta or Kim Basinger more screen time than I heard they had. He'll do fine after this film because Hollywood needs some young male blood, and he's leading that pack so far.
Ramona & Beezus is geared to parents, or grandparents, who remember the source material from way back, who have young GIRLS 5-8 years old. Thats a pretty limited demographic. I know less about Diary of A Whimpy kid, except I think there are 70 million books sold, many of which have been passed around. The books are much more current and popular, and I think appeal to both boys and girs aged 5-13. And their parents of coarse. And the film must have been pretty good since it had excellent legs. Plus, Selena Gomez %&@#!'s.
Plus, I've seem more ads about the "Wimpy Kid" DVD then I ever did for "Ramona & Beezus".
If anyone wants to celebrate The Last Airbender dropping out of the top ten, I will be in the kitchen making cocktails.
I'll be right over…
The Other Guys will open great. I think 35-40 million. To me, its the first comedy of the summer that actually looks funny.
-1.The Other Guys-$23.4 (N/A)
-2.Inception-$23.4 (-15%)
3.Dinner for Schmucks-$13.2 (-43%)
-4.Step Up 3-D-$10 (N/A)
-5.Despicable Me-$10 (-35%)
-6.Salt-$9.9 (-48%)
7.Charlie St. Cloud-$8.2 (-32%)
8.Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore-$5.6 (-55%)
9.The Kids Are All Right-$5.7 (+68%)
10.Grown Ups-$2.2 (-51%)
- movies competing in photo-finishes.
Sorry, I made a boo-boo.
-1.The Other Guys-$23.4 (N/A)
-2.Inception-$23.4 (-15%)
3.Dinner for Schmucks-$13.2 (-43%)
-4.Step Up 3-D-$10 (N/A)
-5.Despicable Me-$10 (-35%)
-6.Salt-$9.9 (-48%)
7.Charlie St. Cloud-$8.2 (-32%)
8.The Kids Are All Right-$5.7 (+68%)
9.Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore-$5.6 (-55%)
10.Toy Story 3-$4.7 (-6%)
$10M for Step UP? I'm not sure about that.
I want to know who the idiots are saying Carrel's career is in trouble. Did you see the grossed for Date Night? Did you see the grosses for Despicable Me? He is the only reason why Schmucks opened over $20 million. He's doing fine.
Halleluyah!
The Last Airbender is off the top 10. Let's ignore the fact Eclipse is still there and celebrate!
Hmm good hold for Inception and it should easily get past $250M in the upcoming weeks, but $300M isn't a lock yet. Solid opening for Schmucks and a decent hold for Salt. C&D2 is now front runner for one of the worse bombs of the year next to JH with a $85M budget and it will be lucky to get past $30M. St.Cloud fell BIG after Friday and it looks like it will finish at around $30M domestic at best.
:Next Week:
The Other Guys – $33.6M
Step Up 3D – $21.4M
If Inception falls another 30/35% then it should do around $20 million next weekend.
Unless The Other Guys tanks via bad word of mouth or unless the Inception drop is shallower then I would think that The Other Guys should probably be able to take the top spot with relative ease.
However, Inception is now up to $170 million international to bring it to a $360 million gross so far and it still has plenty of money to earn yet.
Thanks Brad for the mention.
Concerning the second weekend of R&B… At my local Multiplex theater there was a big sponsor tie-in. The Tide Detergent people had setup signficant floor space where they could take pictures of children in a large peanut-butter sandwich, where children could color in-between the lines of a large mural, an HD TV replaying what I guess were bits from the movie, and boxes of Tide t-shirt giveaways.
The only problem was that R&B had already been relegated to a single screen … that it shared 1/2 time with Knight and Day! Final score over the 15 minutes I watched: Tide people to support the promotion 8. Bored children who participated while waiting for Despicable Me to start: 2.
I am curious to find the demographics from Salt. The theater I went to this weekend was packed – however the median age had to be 40. I don't know if a bunch of older people were simply trying to escape the 105 deg. heat where I live, if Salt is appealing to the older audiences while Inception appeals to the younger, or if grandparents were dumping the grandkids into Despicable Me and needed a place to sit.
1. THE OTHER GUYS – $45.2 million
2. STEP UP 3-D – $27.6 million
3. INCEPTION – $19 million
4. DINNER FOR SCHMUCKS – $13.1 million
5. SALT – $10.5 million
:)
1.) The Other Guys – It's been a long time since a Farell comedy, and Wahlberg too. Because Dinner for Shmucks opened already this week, I don't see this movie over-performing. But that 3400+ theaters will give it at least $18-28M. Plus, it's comparable to Starsky and Hutch more than Cop Out.
2.) Step Up 3-D – The fact that the audience may be weary of this franchise, but will be offering a "cool" 3-D addition to the dances, this may end up like its former sequel. $20M
3.) Inception – I was expecting Inception to gross $30M this week, I was wrong. So I guess a $16M next week isn't that bad
I'm thinking that Step Up 3 will make $20M opening weekend, and maybe $45-50M total. That accounts for a decline in attendance from the last entry in the series, plus a modest offset thanks to the revenue boost from 3D ticket prices.
Step Up seems like one of those middling franchises, like Underworld or Resident Evil, that carries a limited but dependable audience.
Brad, you definitely should see Grown Ups. It's great. I'm happy that it did well. Diary of a Wimpy Kid did great because kids loved the books, it was a story about getting through middle school, and it was okay-reviewed. On the other hand, Ramona and Beezus was a book series too but the kids who read the books when they were young are already too old for Ramona. It didn't have a big appeal. Here's my predictions for next week.
1. Inception- I think the closest competition it will have is Step Up 3D.
2. Step Up 3D- The 2nd movie grossed about 17 m. in it's first week. With this as 3D this should open at #2.
3. The Other Guys- Why do so many people think this will be #1? I don't see any hype for it and Will Ferrel's last movie (Land of the Lost) was an epic failure. It looks really stupid anyway. Many thought Sex and the City 2 would open at #1. It opened at #3.
4. Salt- Checking it out tonight.
5. Dinner For Schmucks- This will fall under Salt this week.
6. Despicable Me- I HATE IT!
7. Cats and Dogs- FAILURE!!!!!!
8. Toy Story 3- I liked it.
9. Grown Ups- Brad, you should check this out.
10. Charlie St. Cloud
Sex and the City 2 DID open at #1 in the UK, albiet Shrek Forever After didn't come out yet and Prince of Persia opened a week prior to Sex but failed to beat StreetDance 3D.
StreetDance 3D is a British dance movie starring various contestants from Britain's Got Talent (George Sampson, Diversity, Flawless and Ashley Banjo), So You Think You Can Dance (Charlie Bruce) and Gotta Dance (Akai Osei). It also has a soundtrack featuring many british urban acts such as Pixie Lott, Tinie Tempah, Chipmunk, Cheryl Cole and N-Dubz.
A song from the movie (We Dance On by N-Dubz) is currently eligible for the Academy Award for Best Original Song.
Wouldn't it be something if Randy Newman was beaten to an Oscar by N-Dubz?
Only if you're an N-Dubz fan I would think.
Off topic:
AVATAR has so far earned $2,740.2 billion worldwide.
How much will the rerelease add to the overall gross, especially since the movie has been out on DVD for months?
Any prediction?
Depends on how many screens it's getting.
I'm with you on Adam Sandler, Brad. I'm SO furious that people constantly go to his moronic comedies and broad, stupid, pandering family films, and yet nobody goes to see him is his truly great roles–"Punch Drunk Love," "Reign Over Me," "Funny People." It's a very sad trend. Adam Sandler could be making quite a critical name for himself in Oscar hopefuls, and he could have even gotten an Oscar nomination by now (after all, fellow ugly comedian John C. Reily has gotten a nod so far, and he isn't even as good a serious actor), but of course he has to be where his money is (which I can't and won't blame him for), and that happens to be in the really stupid movies. :(
Maybe if he made a slower transition into the more dramatic ones, like doing more realistic less cookie cutter comedies with drama in them instead of jumping back and forth between cookie cutter comedies and dramas/dramedies, then people might start seeing them.
Since he writes/co-writes quite a few of his comedies – these are obviously films that appeal to him as well.
On a basic level, despite dipping his toes here and there from time to time, he hasn't really even himself evolved from his Happy Gilmore days.
@Brad re Wimpy Kids:
According to Publishers Weekly in 2009:
1,365,987 Diary of a Wimpy Kid, Hardcover Backlist
1,257,806 DOAWK: Rodrick Rules, Hardcover Backlist
1,204,701 DOAWK Do-It-Yourself Book, Hardcover Backlist
2,621,952 DOAWK: The Last Straw (#3), Hardcover
3,102,504 DOAWK: Dog Days (#4), Hardcover
That's over nine and a half million hardcover books sold in 2009 and doesn't include a new hardcover that came out in November '09, doesn't include the two previous sales years, doesn't include paperbacks, and doesn't include international sales.
Truthfully, the real question is why didn't the movie do better. Both Ramona & Beezus, and Percy Jackson, for example, seem to have sold many more movie tickets per books extant.
With no special effects and no stars, Diary of a Wimpy Kid could be said to have underperformed at the box office. That could mean the sequel will do better.