Harry Potter vs. Transformers – July's Box-Office Death Match 2011
New trailers due this week
Photo: Paramount Pictures
Thursday, Paramount will debut the new trailer for Transformers: Dark of the Moon and if it's anywhere near as indistinguishable as the picture of the Decepticon robot named Shockwave above than it should meet all expectations. What will likely be just as anticipated, if not more so, will be this week's new trailer for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 which arrives on Wednesday.
Both Harry Potter and Transformers arrive in July, Transformers on July 1 and Potter on July 15. Both will be in 3D… Anyone care to guess which one will rake in more money? Here's the history of the two franchises:
Transformers Franchise:
- Transformers (2007) – $319,246,193
- Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (2009) – $402,111,870
Harry Potter Franchise:
- Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001) – $317,575,550
- Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002) – $261,988,482
- Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004) – $249,541,069
- Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005) – $290,013,036
- Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007) – $292,004,738
- Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009) – $301,959,197
- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 (2010) – $295,001,070
Looking at those numbers I'd say it's pretty clear cut, at least domestically. Harry Potter, though, is a far reaching phenomenon and Deathly Hallows: Part 1 out did Revenge of the Fallen in worldwide totals, $954 million to $836 million respectively. You also have to consider Revenge of the Fallen was widely considered one of the worst films of 2009… Will people be wary of a third film and the inflated 3D ticket prices?
If you ask me, if Dark of the Moon is even marginally better than Revenge of the Fallen it will beat up on Potter domestically and with 3D may eye $500 million, especially if it's actually good. But I think Potter will take the crown in overall worldwide dollars… How about you?
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$500 million domestic for Transformers: Dark of the Moon??? WOW!!! Just for information, what films do you think will be the highest grossing films of the year, domestic and worldwide.
im looking forward to both of them, but potter soooooooooooooo much more. i still dont understand how they make so little (compritively) domesticly. Ill root for potter, but most like transformers wins
i also think as this last potter is the shortest movie of the series, and the last, and in 3d itll make a lot more then films past. Its going to be an action movie first and foremost and its the last chance to see potter in the theatres, repeat buisness will be crazy
$500m for Transformers: Dark of the Moon? Wow! Which films will be the highest grossing films this year?
I think that considering this is the last Potter film of the franchise, I'll beat Transformers easily, people got hooked up with the last movie, and the anticipation for the last battle is high.
Nobody really enjoyed t2 which will hurt this. HP will be massive. I honestly dont even think this will be a contest. I could honestly see HP putting up 450-500 domestic, and transformers barely cracking 300. The hype for this Transformers just isnt there like it was for Revenge.
I totally agree.
See, this is what I find interesting about throwing down a number like $500 million for HP.
If I can ask, since the franchise has never made more than $317 million (in 2001) and has averaged $300 million with it's last few installments establishing it has a set fanbase, where does the basis for this sudden massive growth in numbers come from?
The 3D? Assuming that people will repeat view that often? That the final film will suddenly drag a whole bunch of new people into the theatres?
I'm not attempting to be cheeky…………but when such larger numbers come out, I'm interested in why one thinks that number is a possibility.
Well from test-screeners, the final film has a massive repeat value, which means everyone who watches the film will want to come back and watch it another time just because there is so much that happens during the battle.
Add in the added hype the film gets from whoever watched Part 1, the Finale factor, 3D factor, and that it's an epic fantasy war film(usually it's swords and bows, now it's magic), that will probably get a lot of viewers in.
I agree with Jason. You also have to consider that many people just waited for Potter to come out on DVD or other mediums because they were so long. With this one I think that many of those people, like my parents, will go to the theater just for the thrill of that last great stand.
I'm hoping for Harry Potter.
How those Transformers movies make nearly one billion each is very sad. Specially Transformers 2. It doesn't make sense. That movie gave me a headache, and I'm not saying that just saying because I want to sound badass on my review or something. I ACTUALLY had a headache.
Why anyone would pay $10 for a headache again??
Oh, I know why… It's headache in 3D!!!! That's a new dimension of headache! YAY!!
You mean Deathly Hallows: Part 1 out did Revenge of the Fallen in worldwide totals, not Part 2…
Yup, thanks for the heads up.
Bay makes terrible movies, and Transformers is a perfect example. Once I heard Prime say "my bad" in the first one, I stopped watching. Didn't even bother with the second one. Thankfully I own the orignal series on DVD, so I can watch Transformers as it was meant to be. The Potter series is just all around better.
DISCLAIMER: I absolutely dispised and loathed Transformers 2; I actually used words like garbage & vomit in my review.
I would never venerate Michael Bay as some kind of genius or even as a GREAT filmmaker; however, give the guy his do. Some of his films have been rather entertaining.
1995 Bad Boys
1996 The Rock
1998 Armageddon
2001 Pearl Harbor
2007 Transformers
These films had simple dialogue (sometimes cheesy), ridiculously (and quite implausible) over-the-top action scenes and good looking actors who…well, acted like they were in a Michael Bay film – no awards here. But you know what? Each of these films claim a place on my DVD wall.
Now, while if forced to choose, I would never pick any of these films over Schindler's List, Chinatown, Downfall or Star Wars, however, it doesn't change the fact that usually I crack a smile while watching a Michael Bay film – and that (in this day and age of absolute crap at the Box Office) means a lot to this moviegoer.
Thems the facts
Being perfectly honest, the only one of those that I liked was The Rock.
I will say that I think he splits the blame with the Transformers screenwriters. I think those guys are truly awful. Star Trek was able to overcome a braindead script thanks to some lively direction and a charming cast. Bay just tries to paper over an awful script with visual mayhem, and it never works for me.
Ah, this is a close call.. I'm going to say Potter since it's the end of the series and it's supposed to be super epic. The last Transformers movie was visually enjoyable but a little weak story-wise, so my hope are a little low for the next one.
I see Transformer's 3rd outing shrink by 20%. We all know what happens when you disappoint with the first sequel of a blockbuster (a la Pirates of the Caribbean)…but T3 will still have a shot of taking the top spot
HP 7 part 2 – $145M opening weekend/ $330M total
Transformers 3 – $140M opening weekend/ $325M total
I definitely think Potter will win this. It's the end, I think it'll break records. Transformers… hopefully won't do as well, especially if it doesn't deserve it. Which I doubt it will. I think people are going to support Potter.
Interesting that both seem to be sticking to their Friday openings. I guess the OW number has become more important than getting a jump, even in the summer.
Regarding Transformers…outside of the fanboy crowd, pretty much everyone HATED the last one, and rightly so. It was an utterly terrible movie, and there's no reason to think this one will be any different really. I expect it'll be more like the first, by which I guess I mean less blatantly offensive to every culture. But the first one was pretty bad too, and I think bad will from the last one will hurt this one too. Plus, Potter will bury it, just like it did the first two. However, because it opens on a three-day weekend and has 3D, its OW number will be bigger than the first two.
Regarding Potter, I think the audience for that franchise is pretty solidly established. The last four have all finished withing $10 million of each other domestically, though they're become more frontloaded. But they drop off steeply at first, and then settle in; Part 1 looked to be heading for $275 million at best and ended up making $295 million. And I don't expect there to be any dramatically different viewing patterns with this one just because its the last; I think it will drop off just as quickly. So basically I'd just look at Part 1's numbers and inflate them to account for 3D. It'll also be the shortest of the series (reportedly around 130 minutes), and theatres will of course cram in as many showtimes as they can, but I'm not sure that will inflate things drastically.
Transformers
$125 million OW
$300 million domestic cume
Harry Potter
$145 million OW
$350 million domestic cume
Worldwide Potter will own. It should pass $1 billion and might have a shot to top The Return of the King's $1.1 billion and change to move into the #3 all-time spot.
If there is any justice in the world the transformers and the twilight movies will bomb because people will finally realise what trash these movies really are… i have had the misfortune of having seen the first movie of both those franchises and both are utter trash! HP:TDHP2 should easily be this years biggest movie and TDKR will rule 2012
I want Potter to win and I want it to win BIG! Since its going to be in 3D and since its the last one I'm going to say it will just barely miss the $400 million mark. If a bad Transformers sequel kept people going back for more (I'm sorry folks, but you don't get to $800 million worldwide unless people are doing repeat business), then what about a mediocre or even a good one?
Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Domestic: $397 million
Worldwide: $1.2 billion
Transformers: Dark of the Moon (worst. title. ever.)
Domestic: $390 million
Worldwide: $1 bilion
Thems the facts
I see people are still in denial that millions of people actually liked TF2. The third will be huge
Which is why I predicted that it will cross the $1 billion mark globally – TF2 only cleared $826
Thems the facts
i agree…i also think that t3 have the chance to beat critics ass..lol…
I don't really know why folks are going out of their way to observe how much they personally hated or refused to watch Transformers 1 and 2 – I would have thought everyone would know by now that hasn't always go to do with predicting general box office success.
That's fine, but then Transformers 2 didn't get to $825 million because the general audience hated it that much. It just doesn't work that way.
Bay does generally make movies that (to be kind) are lowest common denominator action-fests………….that's why his track record at the box office is so strong with the exception of The Island. Because that translates into large box office both domestically and foreign.
But then I also enjoy some of those films (The Rock, Armageddon and yep, Transformers 1 and 2 for what they are. Cinematic junk food) quite a lot.
The upshot is, a film series which has made global of $1.5 billion so far isn't going to tank completely with it's 3rd installment (even Pirates 3 pulled in $960 million global without 3D after the second film was not well recieved and neither was the third in 2007).
I think Transformers 3 final US gross will likely fall somewhere between the first and second films. I'll go with an OW of around $150 million, and a final gross of around $380 million based on the 3D factor but it coming in more like the first film, plus 3D and inflation and allowing a little extra on the off chance it actually gets a better reception than the second.
For Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 it will definitely beat it globally and should go past $1 billion. If DH, Part 1 could become the second highest grossing film in the HP series without 3D then there's no way it won't pass that mark WITH 3D. However, the main audience is quite set now for Harry Potter and won't suddenly grow in size, so it's US performance will depend partly on the 3D but also what sort of repeat viewing people give it. This film has all the action in it and that will get played up in the trailer hugely, so I think it can open similarly than Transformers 3 and might see better repeats because of the action quotient, but still come in a little lower because that audience is set.
I think it could open to around $150 million and finish at around $360 million.
But we'll find out in July!
cool banner brad
I'm looking forward to Transformers: Dark of the Moon more than Harry Potter 7 Part 2 but there are more potter fans than there are massive robots destroying each other.
I feel that Potter will take it mostly because of the worldwide fan base and i believe that Transformers will rake in the Domestic dollars. So Transformers has North America but Potter will take more money internationally
I feel Potter will take it because everyone knows that it will most likely be (unless there's a prequel) Potter's last film appearance and it will bring non fans who've watched movies on DVD and maybe people who haven't even watched the movies. It will be an event but don't count Transformers out.
Reality check for Potter fans. I was dragged to Trans2 by someone who wanted company, and was actually offended by a couple of scenes in the movie. Still, I have some interest in seeing #3. I don't know how else to say it except that it's a "regular" type of film though it's type is not seen enough in theaters, perhaps, to be called "regular". The good guys win, the guy gets the girl, there are a few jokes &/or gags, justice prevails, someone is willing to help you when you need help, etc, etc.
As mentioned above, the Harry Potter fan base is large and reliable, but static. I agree with Brad that the Transformers franchise is still in a growth mode, so Transformers FTW.
In some ways, Transformers is relaxing. I don't always want to go to some indie film that examines how the good guys only win because the winner get to label who the good guys are, or how the good guys and the bad guys are often the same people, or how the bad guy has just as good of a chance to get the girl, or how justice is a tricky subject, etc. Not only is Transformers relaxing, but it's actually spiritually uplifting. Go figure.
I have no horse in this race… I haven't yet seen the last 2 Harry Potter films, nor did I see Transformers 2. I have far more respect for the Harry Potter franchise than I do for Bay's Transformers, but my respect doesn't add up to much hard cash at the box office.
However, I just don't see where all of these extra Harry Potter fans are supposed to come from. This far into the series, with no new books being published, I think the audience is pretty well set. If Potter fans have a hard time letting go of the theatrical experience, I think this last one might do a bit better than most, but I certainly don't see much new audience for the second half of the seventh (?) book in a series. If it's in 3-D still, then that's the only reason I would see for it to beat the record held by the first film.
Transfomers 3 has a few things working against it as well… The second movie was apparently even worse than the first (although even more popular, so I've given up trying to equate quality to box office with this series.) Still, if fans were actually let down in any real way, it's this one that will pay for it.
They've also lost Megan Fox… and say what you want about her, she was a major face for the marketing of the first two films. Regardless of whether fans will miss her, I think the film will miss the press coverage she brought. Whomever that new girl they have gaping in the trailer is never going to match the media frenzy that Ms. Fox enjoyed for her 15 minutes.
The film is also looking at a much more competitive summer, in my opinion. The last year these films competed for the summer crown, 2009, they accounted for 2 of only 5 summer films to make the year-end top ten, and the very early summer Star Trek was the only other action-adventure entry (Pixar's Up and the comedy The Hangover were the only other summer Top Ten entries). My theory is that, if more of this summer's action entries actually turn out to be crowd pleasing, there will be fewer willing to accept a bad but visually impressive Transformers film as worthy of their entertainment dollar.
So with all that said, I think Harry Potter will be slightly up at best, Transformers 3 will be down (despite the 3-D)… but Transformers 3 will still take the box office crown (at least between these two.)
It only takes a week to catch up on the Potter films, less if you read wiki. :P
Transformers will dissapoint. Potter will rule the summer.
Transformers: Dark Of The Moon – $135 OW / $290 F
Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows, Pt. 2 – $165 OW / $370 F
OW DG WWG
Harry Potter 8 145 350 1,1B
Transformers 3 125 380 950
I wish it would be Potter…but it'll be Transformer's, dumb moviegoers flocked to the 2nd film, they'll flock to this one.
Harry Potter – 355M
Transformers – 315M
Harry Potter could dominate domestically. I believe the new Transformers will fallow the pattern of some big blockbusters that had mediocre sequels (Matrix, Pirates, Shrek) and performed visibly worse in their third installments. Also the 3D numbers could benefit Harry more since it opens later (along with Captain America). Worldwide, Deathly Hallows Pt2 will not just win the summer, but the whole year easily.
Yeah, I can't tell if opening later helps or hurts Potter. I want to say hurts, but I'm not sure why.
The HP series has a fairly defined track record. $300 mil would seem about right for domestic. A little less than a billion worldwide.
I would go for $350-$375 for Transformers 3 domestic. $850 billion worldwide.
Personally I am much more interested in HP. However Trans3 has a large audience base that likes loud, explosive summer movies.
"$850 billion worldwide."
You mean million. Lol. :P
It'll be a close one. I voted for Harry Potter 7.2, but in reality I think it's a 50/50 split. Harry Potter will not see an audience drop, but Transformers very well could.
Basically, I think Harry Potter 7.2 is guaranteed to have an audience size at least as big as 7.1, but probably bigger since it's the final chapter. Without 3D, I'd put its chances at $310mil. But since there's 3D, I'm willing to inflate that $20-30mil, but not more because I think many people are sick of 3D and many people will simply opt to see it in 2D instead (I know I will!).
As for Transformers 3, I'm quite sure it will experience an audience loss. Look what happened to Pirates of the Caribbean between parts 2 & 3: from $423mil down to $309mil. In both franchises Part 2 made so much based on the goodwill of Part 1. But Part 2 of POTC was pretty mediocre, and Part 3 suffered for it. It also didn't help that Part 3 was so much worse than Part 2, which resulted in large drops.
So if Transformers 3 is as bad as Transformers 2, it will probably only barely clear $300mil, if that. If it's better than 2, maybe it can hit $325-350. But I really don't see more than $350mil. Yes, it has 3D, but the second one had IMAX showings with special IMAX sequences which it made good money off of, so I don't see it getting a boost like Harry Potter might.
So the conclusion is: it's going to be a close race, mostly dependent on how Transformers 3 performs. If TF3 does quite well or quite poorly, this question may even be resolved by the time Harry Potter opens.
No contest. I think HP7.2 will be the biggest film of the summer, both domestic and worldwide. Bad word-of-mouth will keep TF3 from reaching TF2-sized numbers, probably on the same amount of the first (counting inflation that is).
Dark of the Moon, beating the Deathly Hallows?
No way.
The third Transformers is (almost entirely thanks to Bay's cinematographic previous disaster) not as anticipated as the second one was. The original Transformers, despite not being a masterpiece, was anyway a pretty good and enjoyable movie, and settled the grounds of what was going to be a financial success for Paramount. So the hype for the second one was expectable to be huge, and the numbers that Revenge of the Fallen finally made on it's first week confirmed that. But now that's not the case, and there's no need to say why, so, even the higher 3D ticket prices, we just can't expect Dark of the Moon to reach the same levels. Revenge of the Fallen was so freaking dissapointing that many of the people that enjoyed the first one and expected the same from the second one, now have partially or completely lost interest in the franchise, so, any number higher that 320-330 million for DOTM, would surprise me a lot.
On the other hand, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2, is fixed to become one of the most monumental movie events of all times. I would even dare to say that since, being the most anticipated movie of the year, the final installment of the most popular franchise ever worldwide, and being released in 3D in the most lucrative month of the summer season, is finally and definetely going to be the movie to have the honor of becoming the one which will break The Dark Knight's US$158.4 million opening weekend record. I would be shocked if not. Yes, maybe it's not going to break the number of tickets sold, but no way it won't achieve the gross milestone. 170 million at least for the first 3 days of release, with another towering 300+ million from overseas.
This is just going to be the most epic movie event of the new decade, only comparable to Avatar and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, from the one that finished last year.
Well….I want Potter to do better, but had to vote for TF on this one. TF has beat Potter both times domestically. But Potter will win worldwide hands down.
I'd love for Potter and it's fans to prove me wrong though ;P I for one will be seeing Potter many times over. TF…I will not.
I think a lot of people are missing the point here,even though many people hated transformers 2
It had some of the best special effects in history especially the forest fight.
Many people go to cinema to watch action and big explosions and Micheal Bay is an expert at that so Transformers 3 will be big at box office.
And will beat harry potter in box office numbers though critics will be more favorable towards harry potter.
I cant put Harry Potter above Transformers 3, i think both will kill the boxoffice competition. But i have to put Transformers 3 ahead. Transformers 3 opens up July 1, 4th of July weekend. Major bucks to be made. And Transformers will have no major competition until Harry Potter is released on July 15th. Plus this will be the last Transformers film, it will bring the war between the Autobots and Decepticons to an explosive conclusion.
Transformers 3 will win the boxoffice. Potter will be a close 2nd.
every one says potter audience is set. they forget that after GoF about 15-20% audience stopped watching the movies because of deviation from source material. and about half of them including myself are going to watch the last film. so it will actually see a small boost (about 10%). add to that the general inflation, more action, and 3-D factor and i see it gross 375+ million. tf3 s flgross will depend on reception. good movie=400mil, tf2 like=320mil
I have to go with Transformers Dark of the Moon,its the last of the trilogy. So alot of folks will go for that very reason. Transformers also has a huge fanbase that goes all the way back to 1984. It will bring in all ages. Plus its a made for summer movie. And opening on Fourth of July weekend
hell yeah, this movie has the Firworks that will make for one hell of an explosive boxoffice opening. Transformers and 4th of July go good together. Having read the novel I can say that without a doubt this film is going to be the best of the trilogy. And 3D to boot. As a fan of both Transformers and HP I will enjoy both. Its summertime the time of year to enjoy. Ill give HP the edge on worldwide gross, but domestic TF3 will be number one again.
Guys….think about this….none of the Harry Potter movies has ever made more than the Transformers movies…the first review is already out for Transformers on aint it cool news…..it is the best of the three transformers movies by fay, but they also said its visuals is slightly better than Avatar! That shocked me…..I think Transformers will be the next $500million domestically…it has a shot at $1Billion….Harry Potter? I think it will gross around $350 million domestically…$1Billion worldwide? Yes….both will go over $1 Billion.
Transformers Dark of the Moon 1ST
Harry Potter 7.2 2ND
and Potter fans dont forget about Captain America.
TRANSFORMERS DARK OF THE MOON!!!!! NUMBER ONE!!!!!!!!
TRANSFORMERS SHOULD MAKE MORE! It's a better movie by 100 times. HARRY POTTER HAS A BUNCH OF STUPID FANS WANTING THE FINAL PART. So HP will sadly probably make more…