Golden Globe Winners vs. Oscars: The 2013 Update!

Golden Globe Winners compared to Oscars
Photo: Hollywood Foreign Press Association / AMPAS

Last year when writing up this column the Oscar nominations had not yet been announced. I'm not sure how much of a difference that makes in looking at the numbers and searching for a winner, but I will say with Ben Affleck (Argo) having now won Best Director at the Critics' Choice Awards and the Golden Globes, just imagine the announcement of those Oscar nominees and not hearing Affleck's name now. The bewilderment over his absence before he won back-to-back major awards was nothing compared to what it would be if the Oscars were announced this Thursday instead of last.

Last night's two big winners were Argo and Les Miserables, neither of which were necessarily the first that come to mind when talking about Oscar front-runners as after the nominations most of the attention was focused on Lincoln and it's leading 12 nominations followed by Life of Pi and the Weinstein-backed Silver Linings Playbook. However, with Argo winning Best Picture (Drama) and Best Director and Les Miserables winning Best Picture (Musical/Comedy) and Anne Hathaway and Hugh Jackman winning Best Supporting Actress and Best Actor (Comedy/Musical), both films have now stepped up in the spotlight.

As I have done for the last several years, today I offer my eighth installment of my "Globes vs. Oscars" column (2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012) and we'll take a look at the past 28 years of Golden Globe winner history compared to the Oscars and see where last night's winners may gain an edge and where they most likely won't and we'll begin with the lead acting categories.

Best Lead Actor and Actress
Actor: 18 of the last 28 Globe winners won the Oscar
Actress: 22 of the last 28 Globe winners won the Oscar

Daniel Day-Lewis in LincolnLast year both Jean Dujardin (The Artist) and Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) won the Golden Globe and then went on to win the Oscar and over the last 28 years the winning percentage in these categories is pretty good. The Globes offer up two contenders that have a shot, doubling the chances for a match and this year is unlikely to be any different.

Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) won Best Actor (Drama) last night and he has long been considered the favorite for the Best Actor Oscar and I'm not sure there are many out there that believe he's going to lose. Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables) is likely his closest competition at this point, but while he may be the "closest", it's a distant second.

For Best Actress it isn't as clear cut as to who will win, but last night's winners -- Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) and Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) -- are certainly the two most likely winners. Personally I still believe Lawrence will take the statue home. Why? Well, she sort of hinted at it last night during her acceptance speech when she said, "Harvey, thank you for killing whoever you had to kill to get me up here today." Harvey will definitely put in the work, but this is going to be a close race all the way.

Best Supporting Actor and Actress
Supporting Actor: 17 of the last 28 Globe winners won the Oscar
Supporting Actress: 15 of the last 28 Globe winners won the Oscar

Anne Hathaway in Les MiserablesUnlike last year, this year's Supporting categories aren't entirely predictable. Last year to bet against Christopher Plummer (Beginners) or Octavia Spencer (The Help) would have been foolish and this year Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) is just as much a lock for the Oscar as Daniel Day-Lewis, but what about that Supporting Actor category?

Over the last 28 years the Supporting Actor winner at the Golden Globes has matched the Oscar winner 60.7% of the time, but over the last five years that percentage is a 100% match with winners such as Plummer, Christian Bale (The Fighter), Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds), Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight) and Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men).

In a bit of a surprise, Waltz won Best Supporting Actor last night for the second time at the Globes for his role in Quentin Tarantino's Django Unchained. His competition was virtually the same as it will be at the Oscars, though at the Globes he was also competing against fellow Django star Leonardo DiCaprio. No such competition exists at the Oscars where DiCaprio was not nominated, instead replaced by Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook) who is in the running for his third Oscar win.

Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) has long been considered the Supporting Actor front-runner, but he has definitely slipped in recent weeks. With Waltz winning at the Globes and Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) winning at the Critics' Choice it would seem those two have climbed into front-runner status for the Oscars, but I'm not quite ready to count out Jones or even De Niro, which turns this into a four horse race.

Best Director
17 of the last 28 Globe winners won the Oscar

Ben Affleck at the 2013 Golden GlobesWell, I said it at the outset, Ben Affleck (Argo) wasn't nominated for an Oscar so despite his Globe and Critics' Choice win, there won't be a sweep of the major awards for the young helmer whose Oscar will surely come soon enough. As far as the Globes are concerned, recent history shows they aren't exactly the best barometer for predicting the Oscars anyway.

Just below I've listed the recent discrepancies between the Globes and Oscars for this category.

  • The Globe went to Martin Scorsese (Hugo) and Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) took home the Oscar in 2012.
  • The Globe went to David Fincher (The Social Network) and Tom Hooper (The King's Speech) took home the Oscar in 2011.
  • The Globe went to James Cameron (Avatar) and Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker) took home the Oscar in 2010.
  • The Globe went to Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) and Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men) took home the Oscar in 2008.
  • The Globe went to Martin Scorsese (Gangs of New York) and Roman Polanski (The Pianist) took home the Oscar in 2003.
  • The Globe went to Robert Altman (Gosford Park) and Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind) took home the Oscar in 2002.
  • The Globe went to Ang Lee (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon) and Steven Soderbergh (Traffic) took home the Oscar in 2000.
  • The Globe went to Milos Forman (The People vs. Larry Flynt) and Anthony Minghella (The English Patient) took home the Oscar in 1997.
  • The Globe went to Oliver Stone (JFK) and Jonathan Demme (Silence of the Lambs) took home the Oscar in 1992.
  • The Globe went to Clint Eastwood (Bird) and Barry Levinson (Rain Man) took home the Oscar in 1989.
  • The Globe went to John Huston (Prizzi's Honor) and Sydney Pollack (Out of Africa) took home the Oscar in 1986.

Right now I still see Steven Spielberg (Lincoln) in the driver's seat for Best Director at the Oscars, but considering he's yet to win a major precursor, all eyes will be on those Directors Guild Awards on February 2 to see who wins. If you haven't yet checked out this year's DGA nominees, you can do so right here... Affleck is among them.

Best Picture
19 of the last 27 Globe winners won the Oscar
Who will win Best Picture at the 2013 Oscars?

The Globes have a decent percentage when it comes to matching with the Oscar winner, but as of late they have only matched up four times in the last ten years, twice in the last eight.

I'm sure most of you would love to say Argo is the Best Picture front-runner after its Globe and Critics' Choice wins, but as I said last night, only three films have ever won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination and the last time was Driving Miss Daisy in 1990. Before that you have to go back to the very first Oscar awards and Wings and then 1932 with Grand Hotel. I'm not saying Argo doesn't have a chance, but I am saying history isn't in its favor.

Les Miserables certainly got a little bump from last night's win and the race is now looking like it has five very strong contenders with Lincoln, Life of Pi, Les Misérables, Silver Linings Playbook and Argo. A case could be made for every single one of them, which means we may actually have some fireworks once the Oscars come around this year and that final envelope is opened.

So there it is, the 2013 Oscar Awards will be held on Sunday, February 24. Just as we did last night for the Golden Globes, we will be live blogging and announcing the winners as they happen.

If you weren't with us last night you can check out the 2013 Golden Globe winners here and mine and Laremy's live blog of the event here.

In addition to that, I will continue to update my Oscar predictions up until February 24 and you can always find those here. I am also tracking all the major precursor winners in my Oscar Overture and be sure to keep up-to-date with what is coming up next with my Awards Calendar, which tells us the next major awards to be handed out are the Producers Guild Awards next Saturday followed by the Screen Actors Guild Awards next Sunday, January 27. We will be live-blogging the SAGs as well so be sure and join us then.

  • Criterion10

    What are the chances that a split between Lawrence and Chastain occurs, and Riva takes home the Oscar? I'd certainly love to see that happen, and it is possible...

    • Lisa Rechsteiner

      I think Lawrence deserves it, but the academy doesn't usual the award to a comedy performance. Even thought links is considered a sort of dramedy. The award will most likely go to chastain.

  • Patrick

    "Les Miserables certainly got a little bump from last night's win and the race is now looking like it has five very strong contenders with Lincoln, Life of Pi, Les Misérables, Silver Linings Playbook and Argo."

    Les Mis is still out of the race. For every reason that Argo is not the frontrunner, it applies doubly to Les Mis. Les Mis doesn't have director nods for Oscars, BAFTA nor Globes. At least Argo has the benefit of winning Picture/Director with both the BFCA and Globes; Les Mis does not. And along with missing the director nod at the Oscars, Les Mis is also missing screenplay, cinematography and editing nods. Les Mis has far more obstacles than Argo.

    • David Gaillardetz

      I don't think Brad would disagree with you, but it would be silly to not accept that it received a bump. A small bump at that, and one that keeps it near the bottom of those five, but still. I am thinking it looks like Lincoln, LIfe of Pi, Silver LInings Playbook, Argo, Les Miserables. For me, SLP and Life of Pi could be switched and I wouldn't have much argument.

  • Jack

    What about screenplay?

    I hope Hoffman wins supporting.

  • Crow

    What makes you so sure about the life of pi chances?

    • Sir Trey

      Eleven nominations...has to at least be a strong contender when you've hit double digits.

      • Stiggy

        Gangs of New York and True Grit both had 10 nominations each and didn't win a single one of them.To put that in scoring terms;

        The Golden Compass: 1 Gangs of New York: 0

        • Patrick

          "Gangs of New York and True Grit both had 10 nominations each and didn't win a single one of them."

          Who cares how many they won; we're talking about winning Best Picture. Gangs of New York lost to Chicago, which had 13 nominations. True Grit lost to The King's Speech, which had 12 nominations. So you're just supporting Sir Trey's point: more nominations increases your likelihood of winning Best Picture.

  • Connor420

    Affleck should be nominated for Best Director. Same as Tarantino and Bigelow. I was surprised about Les Miserables over Silver Linings Playbook.

    • jessied44

      Matter of opinion. SLP could find the nearest round file and I wouldn't miss it for a second.

  • Winchester

    It's weird. Since Argo was the big Globes winner but doesn't have that Director nomination it makes it seem unlikely it can overcome the weight of history either and take Best Picture at the Oscars.

    But Lincoln really has to start converting nominations other than DDL into wins in order to look like the contender 12 nominations makes it appear. However, given the way the nominations fell it seems it should be just that.

    I'm not buying Life of Pi as a contender (though partly because it's a very poor adaptation of the book that's been mangled up and I bluntly don't even think it should have the nominations it does) just now. It wouldn't be the first film to get lots of noms and go away with almost nothing. The question is...........could that actually happen with Lincoln outwith seeming lock DDL.

  • Frank

    What went wrong Zero Dark Thirty? It was winning all the critics award in the beginning of award season looking like the favorite, and it just fell off the map. Now it looks like it won't even win Best Original Screenplay with Django starting to get some wins.

  • Xarnis

    I would like to see Ben Affleck win the Dorectors Guild. That would cause an uproar. And I wish people could see past the controversy surrounding Zero Dark Thirty, and see the legitimately good movie that it is.

  • Corbin

    I think that Silver Linings coud easily upset Lincoln for the Best Picture win. However, I wouldn't count out Argo or Life of Pi. Surprisingly, Zero Dark Thirty seems all but done save for Chastain, who still has a chance to win. I think the Golden Globes gave Argo some of its fire back, and put the final nail in the coffin for Zero Dark Thirty.

    • lalecture

      I was wondering if the whole torture thing would backfire in the film. Politics aside, it's just a hard thing for some to swallow. I venture to say that's part of the reason for its slippage.
      Overall I don't think it should beat Lincoln,Argo or slp.

  • britt

    Its not a fair race with 9-10 best picture nominations, and only 5 best director spots. Which I think may give Argo a chance, espeacially since it also won at the critic choice awards. I just think Argo is the better all around movie, Daniel Day Lewis carried Lincoln.....But the story and scripts for other films were better.

  • Thornsy

    I think Silver Linings Playbook will be the ultimate victor on Oscar night. To be fair, I could just be blinded by my fanyboy-love for that film.

    • lalecture

      I'm a biased fan of slp as well! I was watching it again today on my iPad as I worked out (don't ask me how!). Specifically the minute mannerisms, facial expressions and dialogue between cooper and Lawrence. I have to say if I put the performance of Lawrence side by side with chastain's, that Jennifer blows her out of the water!
      As I said in another post the academy may choose the political nature of zero over the character driven slp.

      • Thornsy

        Actors are the biggest part of the academy, and love character-driven movies, they would definitely pick SLP. Come SAG Awards night and it'll all start to clear up.

        • lalecture

          Yes, I agree about character driven films-like crash. i am anticipating an interesting race for the oscars in the . Silver has noms in ALL of main awards categories which has only happened a handful of times.

        • lalecture

          Also the ballots for the oscars are due feb 19, so the academy members still have time to "ponder" all of the film categories.
          Btw, how does one become a member of the academy? Is if they have been nominated?

          • Thornsy

            If they are nominated for or win an Oscar. You can also be invited if the Academy thinks you have contributed significantly to the industry even without an Oscar nomination. Basically it's an invitation thing.

            • lalecture

              Thanks Thornsy! That's what I thought. I wonder how many actors vote for themselves?! Or whether the goes are anonymous? What do you think?

              • Thornsy

                I can definitely imagine some people just voting for themselves.

  • Newbourne

    I for one and upset Killing Them Softly has been completely ignored. It should have at least been nominated for Adapted Screenplay or Cinematography. Brad Pitt and Scoot McNeary should have also been strong contenders in the acting categories. Its just sad to see it disappear in critics' minds.

  • jessied44

    Don't be in so big of a hurry to crown Day-Lewis for Best Actor. Let's see what happens at SAG