Golden Globe Winners vs. Oscars: The 2011 Update!
Will last night's Globes be repeated on February 27?
The 2011 Golden Globes have come and gone and did so without much surprise. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association is lockstep with everyone else and The Social Network is the clear front-runner. In fact, things are so boring this year I'm not even sure an article such as this is necessary as I update the numbers comparing the Golden Globe Award winners with the Oscar winners. Do the Golden Globes even matter when it comes to predicting the Oscar winner? Does anything at this point?
To help answer those questions I bring you the latest update to my "Globes vs. Oscars" column, the sixth installment of this feature in fact (2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010).
This will take a look at how the past 26 years of Golden Globe winner history compared to the Oscars. I hope I've managed to make it somewhat interesting considering the circumstances…
Last year the acting categories were pretty much all sewn up. Even Sandra Bullock winning for The Blind Side became a foregone conclusion by the time the Oscars came around. As far as the lead categories go this year the only way I can imagine the Globes and Oscars not lining up would be if they go a different way than last night's selection of Colin Firth (The King's Speech) for Best Actor.
On the women's side it seems to have boiled down to a race between Annette Bening (The Kids are All Right) and Natalie Portman (Black Swan) and with both of them winning last night that category is likely to line-up unless the Academy decides to deviate entirely. Nicole Kidman perhaps? Lesley Manville? Is it possible the Academy at large could possibly be so unique as to not become just another one of the sheep?
When it comes to these two categories the ladies line-up far more often than the men, which means we shouldn't be surprised that of the two the men's side is the slightly more interesting.
Even though the Globes and Oscars lined up last year with Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds) and Mo'Nique (Precious) there still isn't a lot the two have in common. The men's side finds common ground with the Oscars only 57% of the time and only 50% of the time with the women. This year the supporting actor category is almost assured to match up with Christian Bale (The Fighter) winning at the Globes last night and the clear front-runner for the Oscar. However, will the Supporting Actress category be able to jump the 50% mark?
Melissa Leo won the Globe last night for her role in The Fighter and gave what was arguably the best speech of the night, something I believe will help her chances at the Oscars. Leo faces the obvious competition in Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech), Mila Kunis (Black Swan) and her The Fighter co-star Amy Adams. However, there are folks that would love to see Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom) take the Oscar home and what about Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)? Steinfeld is obviously the lead in True Grit but she's being pushed in the Supporting category and that film has done gangbusters at the box-office. Is anyone paying attention?
Last year the HFPA handed the award to James Cameron for Avatar and it immediately planted a seed of doubt in people's minds. Was it possible the Academy would ignore the opportunity to award the first female the Best Director Oscar? Short answer… No. However, will the Academy ignore the female contingent this year?
After last night's Golden Globe Awards, The Kids are All Right star Mark Ruffalo was quoted saying, "I would just like to say to the Academy members – why don't you grow a pair and vote for Lisa Cholodenko as well?" Female directors, including Cholodenko, Sofia Coppola (Somewhere) and Debra Granik (Winter's Bone) have been pretty much ignored this awards season, a year after Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker) was the first female to take home the Best Director Oscar.
Of course, this is all a long lead in to saying, yeah, David Fincher (The Social Network) will probably win the Oscar the same as he won Best Director at the Globes last night, but if you're interested in the moments the two shows didn't align over the last 26 years have a look at the list below and see if you can find any precedent for why Fincher may not win:
- The Globe went to James Cameron (Avatar) and Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker) took home the Oscar in 2010.
- The Globe went to Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) and Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men) took home the Oscar in 2008.
- The Globe went to Martin Scorsese (Gangs of New York) and Roman Polanski (The Pianist) took home the Oscar in 2003.
- The Globe went to Robert Altman (Gosford Park) and Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind) took home the Oscar in 2002.
- The Globe went to Ang Lee (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon) and Steven Soderbergh (Traffic) took home the Oscar in 2000.
- The Globe went to Milos Forman (The People vs. Larry Flynt) and Anthony Minghella (The English Patient) took home the Oscar in 1997.
- The Globe went to Oliver Stone (JFK) and Jonathan Demme (Silence of the Lambs) took home the Oscar in 1992.
- The Globe went to Clint Eastwood (Bird) and Barry Levinson (Rain Man) took home the Oscar in 1989.
- The Globe went to John Huston (Prizzi's Honor) and Sydney Pollack (Out of Africa) took home the Oscar in 1986.
Just like Best Director last year, the HFPA went with Avatar over The Hurt Locker and the gap between the top prize at the Globes and Oscars widened slightly. Last year the Academy and the Globes differed on both Best Picture and Best Director. Any chance it happens two years in a row?
First off, I think we can all agree last night's Best Picture (Comedy/Musical) winner, The Kids are All Right, will be nominated but isn't among those being considered for an Oscar Best Picture win. If Brokeback Mountain can't beat Crash I don't think Kids will be able to pull off a surprise win from behind. The Academy has already exhibited their issues with films involving gay relationships so until they're able to catch up with the rest of us let's turn our attention to The Social Network, the film that apparently everyone loves to the point of unanimous decision. (What a joke.)
Throughout the award season there's been one film that's been said could knock Network off its pedestal, but The King's Speech hasn't been making many strides toward bucking the system. The Fighter stands an outside chance should it continue to rack up acting wins and perhaps take Best Ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, but for now I think we can just line up the Social Network producers and hand 'em the Best Picture Oscar right now.
So there it is, the nominations for the 83rd Academy Awards will be announced on Tuesday, January 25, at 5:30 a.m. PT in the Academy’s Samuel Goldwyn Theater with the big show taking place on Sunday, February 27. I will once again be live and updating with a live diary and winners as they happen and if you weren't with us last night you can check out the 2010 Golden Globe winners here and my live blog of the event here.
Links from Other Sites You May Like
Showing 25 Comments
~ PLEASE NOTE ~
If, in any way, your comment is an attack on the author of this post or a previous commenter, your comment will be deleted without question.
Add a New Comment |
Click to Read Our Commenting Rules & Guidelines
Brokeback Mountain lost best picture because it was not a good movie. The Academy does not have issues with films about gay relationships, remember Milk?
Crash was the better film that year because it had a compelling story with characters that felt real and we actually cared about. Plus there was a message that everyone could relate to.
Maybe reading this will help you sort things out.
By the way, I remember Milk, it won even fewer Oscars than Brokeback Mountain.
That article is interesting and I'm glad you showed it to me. I was not aware of that story.
However, is it possible that the Academy may have been bothered not by the gay elements, but by the extremely poor ethics in the film?
Don't the two cowboys cheat on their wives, and betray their families to be with each other? The Academy may not have been reacting to the actual gay elements. They could have been reacting to how the film glorified the cowboys being unfaithful to their families.
This is just how I viewed the situation and I apologize if I came off as impolite earlier.
but Milk didnt win either…and I think the unanimous praise for brokeback kind of goes against your "its just not good" theory. O well. The Kids are alright ant win anyway. This is looking like another pretty strait forward season.
Though Brad I have to ask, would not rewarding portman and instead giving it to a lesser performance make them more credible for making another cjhoice just so they dont appear to be "sheep"
That Oscar belonged to Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler, Sean Penn is just the Academy's Poster boy.
Well, he does make a cute poster.
"I think we can just line up the Social Network producers and hand 'em the Best Picture Oscar right now" – I am absolutely agree
Yeah it looks like we can close the book on Best Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. I'm still inclined to give Benning the edge for Best Actress, but it may come down to what happens at the SAGs. If Portman wins there it'd be very hard to bet against her at the Oscars. Same with Supporting Actress, if Leo wins at the SAGs it's likely done, but if someone else can pull a mild upset (Adams and Steinfeld seem to be the only ones with a chance) that could keep the conversation open.
I think The Social Network will end up with at least six Oscars…picture, director, adapted screenplay, editing, score, and at least one of the sounds. It could also pick up the other sound as well as cinematography. Even two years ago when Slumdog was the clear frontrunner I remember only predicting it to win five or so…it ended up one short of a virtual sweep (it was a double nominee for song; I don't remember which category it lost in). I could see The Social Network pulling something similar, with the only potential losses being Eisenberg and Garfield (and I'm still not 100% sure either will be nominated).
Sound editing was the only category Slumdog lost in lol. That was Dark Knight's only other Oscar that year lol. Sorry for the laughter but it's funny to think back on it now.
I think Social Network could win sound mixing while Inception gets sound editing, although I think True Grit could pop-up as a surprise in either category.
I would say The Social Network only has 3 Oscars virtually guaranteed… Picture, Director and Screenplay. While it has a good chance to win Score, Editing and Sound, Inception is a very strong contender in each category. Cinematography is between True Grit and Inception, Social Network might not even get nominated for that one. The competition is once again very strong.
Garfield is certainly a contender and I think Eisenberg is guaranteed a nomination – he's won his fair share of critics' awards against Firth and Franco and was nominated for a Globe. What more does he need.
Also while Bale and Portman are clear frontrunners in their categories (and they deserve the Oscars 100%), I still can't get rid of the thought that Rush and/or Bening might pull an upset. I really, really, really hope that doesn't happen. Especially Bening – to me it's very clear that if she's awarded, it will be because she lost 3 times before. Well, the Academy, it was you who screwed up when you didn't award her for American Beauty, but Portman sure doesn't have to suffer because of it just 'cause she's much younger and was in an erotic psychological thriller.
Also, while I enjoyed Leo's work in The Fighter a lot (unfortunately, she and Bale were the only ones who I thought did a good job on the movie), I still have that hope that Hailee Steinfeld gets the Oscar. Her performance in True Grit was pretty much the most pleasant surprise of last year for me. Just fantastic.
I have to agree with many pundits on this one, as outrageously undeserving as Crash was, the one good that came out of it was that it's lead to a trail of films getting rewarded in recent years that would never had seen any bling with the olf school, we need our hearts tugged and our eyes drenched by the end of the evening mentality that often lead to best picture prizes.
I can't imagine The Departed, No Country for Old Men, Slumdog Millionaire (still a great BP winner to me despite the naysayers) and Hurt Locker would not have gotten anything before the 05 to 06 race. In recent years I think the academy has definitley gotten it right and hopefully they will continue to do so.
I think this year Picture, Director, Actor and actually probably Actress will all duplicate from the GG. Yeah, there's a speckle of doubt about Actress but I haven't seen anyone talking about Bening the way they were a few months back since Portman took the chatter lead.
I think she will win it.
Bale seems to have the momentum now for Supporting Actor so I think it only really leaves Best Supporting Actress as the most obvious location for an upset on the night. That would be if Steinfeld was nominated for True Grit.
I have to say, I was pretty surprised that there were no surprises at all in the Golden Globes, I can't see the Oscars differing in terms of awards going to: Bale, Portman, Fincher, Firth, Social Network (BP, screenplay and music), and TS3 (Best animated). The only award that i think is still kind of up for grabs is best supporting actress.
This really is an incredibly boring year with there not being any surprises at all along the way – well, so far anyways.
At least the quality of the films has been better than it has in a while.
I preferred 2008.
Vicky Cristina Barcelona, In Bruges, Happy Go Lucky, The Wrestler, Doubt, Milk, Wall-E, The Dark Knight, Iron Man, Frost/Nixon, Slumdog Millionaire, Kung Fu Panda and many other movies were fantastic.
hey, I have no complaints about the quality of the films in 2010. I agree that it's been much better than 2009 and 2007.
I'd say 2009 and 2007 were the best years we've had in the past decade.
Sorry, I meant 2006 (when Departed won), not 2007. 2007 for sure was one of the strongest of the last decade. No arguments there.
I still kinda feel Zimmer and Reznor/Ross are going to battle it out for Best Score. Also Cinematography, Editing and Sound awards are all going to be races with at least two major contenders. I have no idea what is gonna get Best Song either. And would love it if they didn't go all boring & conservative on us and awarded Exit Through the Gift Shop instead of Waiting for Superman or whatever.
The outcome of the Oscars will obvious end with The Social Network winning Best Picture. But should there be an upset, i'd see Inception, The Fighter, Black Swan or The Kids are All Right winning.
You're "What a joke" line seems highly unprofessional. Sure, you don't think The Social Network is the best, but you still "liked it".
Have you not realized that it is almost unanimous that everyone at least "liked it"?
Some people were bored of The King's Speech, some people were disgusted by 127 Hours, some people were confused by Inception, some people were creeped by Black Swan. Neither of those are reasons to dislike a movie, but the fact remains that even though The Social Network isn't the one that many consider THE BEST, its the only one that most agree is ONE OF THE BEST (other than Toy Story of course).
Basically, if 70 out of 100 people LOVED Black Swan and 60 out of 100 LOVED 127 Hours, but 90/100 people REALLY LIKED The Social Network… which one appeals to all audiences?
The Social Network will win. It will win because it will not only have some first place votes, but it will have a lot of 2nd place, 3rd place and 4th place votes. Unlike other films who people will LOVE IT or they just won't.
Don't worry, everything you just brought up is in the process of being discussed, but first I must spell check and edit.
And by the way, none of this has anything to do with my opinion of The Social Network or any of these movies. My "What a joke" comment is in relation to the unanimous nature of this awards race, not the quality of a movie.
I agree with the "what a joke" comment. Best Picture at this point seems wrapped up and I don't understand why. I don't believe The King's Speech is the movie to beat The Social Network and I don't personally think it deserves to, however Black Swan, The Fighter, and True Grit should certainly be considered more strongly.
Also, I will be shocked and a bit disappointed if Portman loses Actress at the Oscars. Could No Strings Attached really lose it for her? I don't care how awful that movie turns out to be she deserves the win for her performance in Black Swan. (saying that I realized I haven't seen Kidman's performance yet)
Has a movie as "out there" as Black Swan ever won Best Picture?
Will someone please tell Christopher Nolan to stop releasing his movies in July, I really think people are starting to forget about Inception and it was an absolutely fantastic movie, i know it may be ranked it bit higher than it should on IMDB but what really counts is that almost 300 thousand people have voted an opinion on it which is more than if you added the other 9 potential best picture nominees together, which does say something. If Nolan released Inception in November or October I think he would easily be the best Director front Runner.