Golden Globe Awards

Golden Globe Winners vs. Oscars: The 2010 Update!

Do last night's wins mean anything and if so what?

Photo: AMPAS / HFPA

It's been a little over 12 hours since the 2010 Golden Globes came to a close, which means it is now time to look ahead in my annual post-Globes write-up taking a look at past years of Golden Globe winners and how they compared to that same year's Oscar awards. Do last night's results even matter when it comes to predicting the Academy Awards? I, for one, was surprised with Avatar's two wins, or I should say its win for director surprised me more than Best Picture (Drama), but the film taking both categories was certainly a shock. But does it mean the Academy will also vote the same way?

Luckily, I am making it easier for you to figure that out for yourself as I bring you the latest update to my "Globes vs. Oscars" column, the fifth installment of this feature in fact (2005, 2007, 2008, 2009).

This will take a look at how the past 25 years of Golden Globe winner history compared to the Oscars. Will this give you an idea of who will win? Let's see...

Best Supporting Actor and Actress
Supporting Actor: 14 of the last 25 Globe winners won the Oscar
Supporting Actress: 12 of the last 25 Globe winners won the Oscar

Right off the bat we have a bit of confusion regarding the supporting and lead actress categories due to the fact the Academy and Hollywood Foreign Press viewed Kate Winslet's performance in The Reader differently. Winslet won the Oscar in the lead category while taking home the Globe in supporting, and as a result the numbers for the supporting categories have now dipped below 50%. Typically I would say this meant bad news for Mo'Nique and her win for Precious last night, but both her and Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds) have nothing to fear, they represent a pair of mortal locks to win on March 7 for Best Supporting Actress and Actor. So in 2011 both of those percentages will get a little bump.

Best Lead Actor and Actress
Actor: 15 of the last 25 Globe winners won the Oscar
Actress: 19 of the last 25 Globe winners won the Oscar

Even though the lead actress category here didn't get a bump due to the Kate Winslet mix-up, that 76% likelihood the Oscars will repeat the Globe result means big things for Sandra Bullock who appears to have found her very own Erin Brockovich in The Blind Side. Will we be seeing magazine covers dubbing her the new America's Sweetheart, or will Meryl Streep take home her third Oscar for Julie and Julia?

On the men's side I think we have a two horse race, between last night's Globe winner Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) and Up In the Air star George Clooney. Bridges taking the award last night is a really good start for him and should he continue the trend at the Screen Actors Guild Awards on January 23 things will look even brighter. After all, last year Mickey Rourke took home the Globe only to lose to Sean Penn at the Oscars. Penn also won the SAG award. Perhaps there is something in the Globe/SAG combo.

Best Director
17 of the last 25 Globe winners won the Oscar

I am still convinced Kathryn Bigelow is going to become the first female director to win the Oscar despite James Cameron's win last night, but the numbers tell me I am statistically wrong with 68% of the past 25 Globe winners going on to win at the Oscars. However, I just can't imagine the Academy denying themselves the chance to name their first female directorial winner. After all, the Globes had nothing to worry about, they already handed a female the Globe for Best Director. What? You didn't know that? Yeah, and it wasn't Jane Campion or Sofia Coppola, not even Nancy Meyers, Nora Ephron or Nicki Caro. Nope it was the well-respected directorial talents of one Barbra Streisand in her directorial debut Yentl back in 1984. She ultimately wasn't even nominated for an Oscar. Sadly I was saving that little nugget for my Golden Globe live blog last night, but after Bigelow didn't win I just couldn't figure out how to fit it in.

Below is a list of the instances in the last 25 years where the director winners didn't match up:

  • The Globe went to Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) and Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men) took home the Oscar in 2008.
  • The Globe went to Martin Scorsese (Gangs of New York) and Roman Polanski (The Pianist) took home the Oscar in 2003.
  • The Globe went to Robert Altman (Gosford Park) and Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind) took home the Oscar in 2002.
  • The Globe went to Ang Lee (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon) and Steven Soderbergh (Traffic) took home the Oscar in 2000.
  • The Globe went to Milos Forman (The People vs. Larry Flynt) and Anthony Minghella (The English Patient) took home the Oscar in 1997.
  • The Globe went to Oliver Stone (JFK) and Jonathan Demme (Silence of the Lambs) took home the Oscar in 1992.
  • The Globe went to Clint Eastwood (Bird) and Barry Levinson (Rain Man) took home the Oscar in 1989.
  • The Globe went to John Huston (Prizzi's Honor) and Sydney Pollack (Out of Africa) took home the Oscar in 1986.
Best Picture
18 of the last 25 Globe winners won the Oscar

I was already beginning to think Avatar was going to take the Oscar for Best Picture, and its win last night will go a long way in making me more comfortable with that decision when I update my Oscar predictions tomorrow. 72% of the Golden Globe winners for Best Picture have gone on to take the Oscar. Granted the Globes have both the Drama and Musical/Comedy
winners to bolster their chances in matching up, but I don't think anyone is counting on The Hangover making a serious bid for a Best Picture win, let alone a nomination.


So there you have it folks, the nominations for the 82nd Academy Awards® will be announced on Tuesday, February 2, 2010, at 5:30 a.m. PT in the Academy’s Samuel Goldwyn Theater with the big show taking place on Sunday, March 7, 2010. RopeofSilicon will once again be live and updating with a live diary and winners as they happen and if you weren't with us last night you can check out the 2010 Golden Globe winners here and my live blog of the event here.

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  • http://hpana.com Jeremy Baril

    It would be a crime if Avatar wins best picture.
    Let it bring home five oscars for technicals, but not best picture.

  • http://n/a Jezza

    I am making a serious bid for The Hangover to be nominated for Best Picture.

    At least The Hangover has more of a chance of a nomination than Nine. It all depends on who the voters are.

    Basically Warner Bros. beat The Weinsteins at their own game

    You currently have Nine as your #9 option for Best Picture. Do you want to swap it for The Hangover now?

  • Mystery

    @Jezza: I don't think The Hangover will take that spot...Brad, are you going to update The Contenders anytime soon?
    I'm going to say that The Hurt Locker gets Best Picture but James Cameron takes home Best Director. And I'd be fine with that. In my opinion, James Cameron deserves it. No one worked harder and Avatar is certainly proof.

  • Eric

    @Mystery: I dunno I might flip the director and picture, it seems unlikely that the little engine that could might derail Avatar in the top category.

  • Eric

    @Eric: Which is a downer since The Hurt Locker is, between the two, a better picture.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

    @Mystery: The Contenders section and all my predictions will be updated tomorrow. The predictions Jezza's referring to are almost a month old.

  • Garrett

    I have a hunch that The Hurt Locker will still take Best Picture and Best Director at the Oscars. We'll see.

  • Nick J

    Brad, just btw, you have a typo in the last line referring to the 20010 Oscars. I don't think that will be for a long time.

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

    @Nick J: Thanks, fixed. Also, I wrote the Actor race is between Bridges and Clooney in the post. I should have included Colin Firth in that equation as well because I actually think he ranks higher than Clooney at the Oscars.

  • m1

    I say that Star Trek claims that spot.

    As for the Golden Globes, GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!

    Avatar? Really? Sandra Bullock? Really?

    BTW, THE HANGOVER???!!! Really????????? How could it have edged out the best in the category, (500) Days of Summer!!!

    This proves the Golden Globes were nothing BUT a popularity and box-office-based contest.

  • Leandro Dubost

    I don't think The Hurt Locker has a shot at winning Best Picture. Director, maybe. But if it's not Avatar winning Best Picture, my second guess would be Up In The Air. It's more 'Oscar material' than any other favorite.

    And I don't get the recent 'backslash' towards Avatar for winning the GG. Sure, it has happened before. Remember, 12 years ago, when everybody suddenly decided to hate Titanic, it's not worth of an Oscar, it's overrated, etc, etc?
    I just didn't thought the same would happen to Avatar, since now everybody thinks Titanic 'has grown over time', so I thought people wouldn't make the same mistake again with Avatar.

    Was I wrong?

    I'm not saying Avatar is the best movie of the year and should win because of that.
    Since when does anyone's favorite movie of the year wins an Oscar? =P
    I'm just saying that Avatar does deserve and Oscar, being it your favorite movie of the year or not!

  • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

    @Leandro Dubost: It's not a backlash, at least not in my eyes, people can still love a movie and at the same time believe it doesn't deserve all the awards. I don't see many comments saying Avatar was a terrible movie, just people saying they didn't think it was deserving of Best Picture.

  • JunJun

    @Leandro Dubost:

    I agree. My pick was Inglourious Basterds for the win but since It didn't, I don't turn my anger towards the one that actually won the award. The movie was a great achievement in it's own right and I personally won't ignore it's merits out of spite because it beat out my favorite film of the year.

  • Central Ohio

    I'll bet the farm that 'Avatar' does NOT win an Oscar for best picture. If you think about it, it doesn't even have a chance. The Academy does not want to see James Cameron and his 'Jeff Daniels' haircut standing at that podium with his overweight ego, saying something stupid again like he's the king of the world.

    Look, it's no secret that there are many members of the academy that are jewish. So if anyone thinks that they're going to pick the smurfy looking Avatar over a jewish wet dream like 'Ingorious Basterds' or give the oscar to Cameron over Jason Reitman...then you're smokin' crack!

  • Warren

    I think the Oscars will do their typical "spread the wealth" around this year (except for the tech awards which should be in Pandora's box by now).

    Best Picture: Leaning towards Avatar right now. It's really between it and Hurt Locker. Personally, I have no problem with whoever wins.
    Best Director: Bigelow. I'm guessing her win here is probably the sole major award Hurt Locker will get.
    Orig Screenplay: Tarantino. 2nd Oscar for IB along with Walz's
    Animated: Coraline. UP/Pixar gets a big bone, which is a seat at the Best Picture table. Voters then throw this little bone up for grabs to the rest of the animation contenders.

  • Will

    Im sorry but how the hell did the Hangover win Best Movie Comedy? It seems like the Globes just give the awards to the movie with the highest box office of the bunch nominated. The Golden Globes are bullshit, its all about pleasing the viewer and making them want to come back next year.

  • Just_Myself

    Avatar isn't really the best film of the year, but I do think it's better than the ridiculously overrated Hurt Locker. I think Up In The Air should've won that award, but hey, that's the beauty of opinions. Everyone's is different.

  • m1

    @Central Ohio: Thank you SO much!!
    You finally proved my point! I thought it was good, but not great. If it wins, it will be a popularity contest, just like The Hangover winning last night.

    @Will: You have proved another point of mine. I respected their Vicky Cristina Barcelona pick last year, but (500)DOS was the best film of the category and deserved it more than any other! This is just like the year with Juno.

  • Ooze33

    I'm still trying to figure out why Ponyo wasn't nominated for Animated Feature.

  • Mystery

    @Ooze33: Yeah, Ponyo should've been nominated.

  • Jason

    I'm happy with the winners. I've seen Avatar, (500) Days of Summer, The Hangover, and The Hurt Locker and I think they got it right. The Hurt Locker was good and I liked the story, but Avatar was Amazing. Of course the visuals were top notch, but I also like the story, well not so much the story, but the whole idea of the world Pandora. The way things are connected and such. That's just my opinion.

    And for the comedy one I still have to pick the Hangover. (500) Days of Summer was good, but it's more of a chic flick/bf/gf date movie. Everyone that I know that has seen The Hangover has nothing but good things to say, except maybe the 40+ crowd.

  • Jason

    Oh yeah, and just because Avatar and The Hangover did well in the box office doesn't mean they're bad movies , it means they are entertaining. Actually isn't that why we see movies? I don't know about you but I like to be entertained when I see a movie.

    I'm all for movies with thought provoking stories and great ideas, but blockbusters can be good too. But I guess its the same reason everyone hates the Yankees.

  • goavs

    If 10 movies can be nominated, then The Hangover should definitely be nominated.

  • mfan

    Why would Titanic win Best Picture, and not Avatar? The expanded nominations list is partly to avoid criticism e.g. not nominating TDK. Will the Academy face more criticism if The Hurt Locker wins, or if Avatar wins? (hint: the hurt locker). This is ESPECIALLY true worldwide! The worldwide audience will wonder WTF is going on if Avatar loses. I believe the Academy is sensitive to overseas opinion.

  • flerk

    Avatar?! Avatar?! James Cameron?!

  • Central Ohio

    The Academy can not dictate their votes based on what's going making the tv ratings better. Who cares if the tv ratings are low. The Oscars is not a show for people who watch tv. It's a show for people who watch movies. And most of the time the Academy has enough balls not to nominate movies just because they make the most money. That's the difference between movie people and tv people. TV people think the movies that make the most money are the best movies of the year. Well, to all the TV people out there who watch movies and criticise the Oscars for being boring becase their favorite movie wasn't nominated for anything...FYI: THE OSCARS WEREN'T MADE FOR YOU. The award show you're looking for is called THE PEOPLE'S CHOICE AWARDS.

  • Garrett

    @mfan: I don't think the "worldwide audience" gives a hoot if Avatar wins or loses. More than the majority of the people in this country don't even give a hoot.

  • Eric

    @mfan: @Garrett: Well I dunno, I think the academy to a certain extent wants to regain the worldwide recognition it used to have. If that means that it picks a visual effects bonanza with an ehh story over Up in the Air or The Hurt Locker, then that's how things might play out--which sucks eggs. I do think that the expansion of the nominees and the very likely chance that Avatar will sweep in most everything it's nominated in is the AMPAS' way of "making up" for The Dark Knight.

  • Garrett

    @Eric: Choosing Avatar as the best film of the year is not going to regain the respect that the Academy once held back in it's earlier days. And that goes the other way around, too. If Avatar doesn't win, no one is going to loose any sleep, except possibly a few internet bloggers.

  • Chris138

    After the way some of the people in the room looked when Avatar won Best Picture last night, they may be voting for The Hurt Locker instead. The one thing that The Hurt Locker has going against it is the fact that it's an unpopular subject about a current war, which is also quite unpopular. I also feel that Kathryn Bigelow will become the first female director to win the Oscar, despite her disappointing loss last night to Cameron.

    I also wouldn't be surprised if Inglourious Basterds takes the win at the BAFTAs. The way Tarantino re-wrote history in that film may be appealing to the voters.

  • Eric

    @Garrett: Maybe respect was the wrong word? What's the word I'm searching for...hmmm...ah viewers? As you pointed out it's probably a lose-lose situation for the nominees and an I-don't-care-situation for everyone else. (That doesn't change the fact that I still want Bigelow's film to beat Cameron's haha.)

  • Garrett

    @Eric: Well, yes, they've always wanted more viewers and better ratings. And nominating films like Avatar and The Dark Knight for Best Picture may certainly get more viewers. But that doesn't mean that these viewers will care one way or the other what film wins or loses. On the contrary, the don't care.

  • Allan

    Hangover was my favourite picture of the year, with Inglorious Basterds #2. I hope Bridges wins best actor.

  • mfan

    @Chris138: Exactly. I didn't want to say that, but the war Iraq war was less popular overseas. Will the Academy consider that? To movie fans: please realize that the Oscars, like all awards shows, are promotional vehicles for the film industry. Although, perhaps as @Central Ohio: says, now we have the peoples choice awards, so maybe the Oscars can afford to become parochial.

  • http://joker93.livejournal.com Nick

    I think - moreso, I hope - that most of GG winners lose come Oscar night. I mean, Waltz and Mo'Nique are locks, so are most likely Giacchino and Reitman (for script) and deservedly so. However... well, what I want to say is, that HFPA always liked to reward big names and films with huge grosses, but last night they just totally crossed the f___ing line. I can never agree with, but I can understand Bullock winning over Mulligan; Downey Jr. winning over JGL; Cameron and Avatar winning over Bigelow, QT and Reitman. But this kind of freaking travesty should never, ever happen come Oscar night. Goddamn HFPA turned Golden Globes into People's Choice Awards / MTV Movie Awards, and I couldn't believe they were giving nearly all of the awards not to those who truly deserved it, but to: a) films that grossed much and b) actors who are celebrities. If Avatar, Cameron, Bullock, Clooney (he was great but nowhere near Bridges), etc. win at the Oscars, I'm gonna quit watching the ceremony. I mean it.

  • Eric

    @mfan: While that is true, the AMPAS likes to make history, so while they might not award Hurt Locker with picture, they might award Bigelow with director...

  • Central Ohio

    @Chris138

    I agree. The Oscars as a show are a promotional vehicle for the film industry. But the merit of the award is unparalleled in the industry.

    @Nick

    Right on, Brother. If Avatar or Cameron win anything else then technical awards then I'm going to puke on my brand new 46" Sony Bravia. But fear not. The Academy hasn't done something that stupid since choosing Kevin Costner or Martin Scorsese.

  • Central Ohio

    ...Choosing Costner over Scorsese is what I mean to say. Sorry I haven't had my coffe yet.

  • http://joker93.livejournal.com Nick

    @Central Ohio: I'd say, since choosing Shakespeare over Private Ryan... or even Chicago over The Pianist and Two Towers.

  • Central Ohio

    @Nick: Yes. You are correct. Those were more recent stupid decisions the academy has made. Good call.

  • Bradley Badder

    Sandra Bullock's peformance was perfect to the 'T', Okay the accent was a little annoying but if you have seen the real Leigh Anne then you will agree that it was great.
    So I ask myself the question, Why ? Are random people threatning to quit watching if people like Bullock Win, it is a deserving performance and I don't see the bother. To add aren't the people that choose professional critics ? Or just professional which proves that you don't have the say and if your gonna be that pathetic then I don't think the acadmey will mind a few less viewers, Heck with Bullock winning they might gain some because she is the biggest thing right now.....
    But saying this the other performances were great I'd say for Mr. OSCAR the 3 main contenders are -- Carey Mulligan for 'An Education' -- Meryl Streep for 'Julie and Julia' -- Sandra Bullock for 'The Blind Side' --I'd also agree that Sidibe has a chance but it's becoming a more of an outsider for her performance...But the Film itself should do well.

  • Central Ohio

    @Bradley Badder: I don't care if Sandra Bullock wins. She's actually been decent in a few movies over the last few years except for 'The Proposal' which is complete dribble. All I'm saying is it wouldn't matter how good Avatar is or how much money it makes...it's NOT going to win Best Picture. The Academy will not give James Cameron a chance at the podium. Mark my words.

  • Bradley Badder

    I don't think Cameron will win I see it and hoping it will go to Bigelow yet I could be wrong...AVATAR is becoming slightly overrated in my opinion

  • m1

    @Ooze33: I know! Cloudy W/A Chance of Meatballs, yeah right!

  • m1

    @Nick: Like I said, this is becoming a popularity and box office competition. The biggest travesty was The Hangover over (500)DOS.

  • m1

    @Allan: ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

  • Manoel

    Sinto muito em falar isso com vocês. Vocês não entendem muito acerca do que a Academia representa para o mundo. A Oscar é um prêmio da indústria e apenas com esse propósito - tornar as coisas mais comerciais - é que os prêmios serão concedidos. Que bom que Avatar seja o grande vencedor em Março, mas desconsiderar as qualidades artísticas de uma série de filmes que são muito melhores do que os favoritos a este prêmio é a dica de que o prêmio estará restrito àqueles que realizaram o maior lobby. Acredito que Avatar já ganhou o prêmio merecido pela ousadia tecnológica que empreendeu, seus mais de um bilhão de dólares. Prêmios, só se forem técnicos. The Hurt Locker" é um filme que só emociona americanos e seu patriotismo exemplar, mas que nada quer dizer para o mundo além da denúncia de que seu presidente foi uma grande tragédia. A diretora do filme deveria ser a vencedora por sua incomum ousadia. Há muita coisa que precisa ser posta, mas não creiam que o cinema que produzem é a melhor coisa que pode ser feita. The Menssenger e Brothers são filmes sobre guerra melhores e tocam mais profundamente porque trata de sentimentos universais, sentidos aí, na América, ou aqui, no mundo real.

  • Central Ohio

    Why is there backlash against The Hangover for winning the Globe for best comedy? Was there a funnier movie that came out this year? Even if The Hangover didn't make any money I would still vote it best comedy of the year and so would the Hollywood Foriegn Press. Honestly, I thought it was the funniest movie since Wedding Crashers.

    500 DOS? Really? Joseph Gordon-Levitt looks like he's 17 years old in that movie.

  • http://n/a Jezza

    @Nick: Golden Globes havn't turned into People's Choice Awards. If they did Twilight/New Moon would have swept everything.

  • http://n/a Jezza

    @Will: That hasn't always happened. If they did then Hairspray would have won 2 years ago instead of Sweeney Todd.

  • http://n/a Jezza

    @Ooze33: Ponyo wouldn't have had a hope in hell winning against Pixar's Up. I'm more suprised that A Christmas Carol wasn't nominated. Robert Zemeckis practically put Motion Capture on the animation map.

  • http://n/a Jezza

    You want to talk about Golden Globe robberies? Try these.

    The Lion King over Four Weddings & a Funeral: sure Lion King made a lot of cash, but Richard Curtis is a genious in the world of British comedy. Four Weddings & a Funeral is more original than a retelling of Hamlet.
    Babe over Toy Story: Toy Story is without a doubt the greatest animated feature of all time, and it lost to a retarded pig? Plez!
    Moulin Rouge over Shrek: O.K Moulin Rouge started the whole musical renaisance, but Shrek really brought the concept of starpower in animated flicks.

  • Stiggy

    Jezza had a point about Warner Bros beating Weinsteins

    Nine was left Hungover by The Hangover

    Daniel Day Lewis got out-smarted by Robert Downey Jr.

    over Weinstein losses

    The Dude bashed Colin "Gaylord" Firth out of actor drama prize

    Weary Kind outperformed Cinema Italianno

    Marrion Coltilrad got out-chefed by Meryl Streep

    Mo'Nique scared off Penelope Cruz