It's been a little over 12 hours since the 2010 Golden Globes came to a close, which means it is now time to look ahead in my annual post-Globes write-up taking a look at past years of Golden Globe winners and how they compared to that same year's Oscar awards. Do last night's results even matter when it comes to predicting the Academy Awards? I, for one, was surprised with Avatar's two wins, or I should say its win for director surprised me more than Best Picture (Drama), but the film taking both categories was certainly a shock. But does it mean the Academy will also vote the same way?
Luckily, I am making it easier for you to figure that out for yourself as I bring you the latest update to my "Globes vs. Oscars" column, the fifth installment of this feature in fact (2005, 2007, 2008, 2009).
This will take a look at how the past 25 years of Golden Globe winner history compared to the Oscars. Will this give you an idea of who will win? Let's see...
Right off the bat we have a bit of confusion regarding the supporting and lead actress categories due to the fact the Academy and Hollywood Foreign Press viewed Kate Winslet's performance in The Reader differently. Winslet won the Oscar in the lead category while taking home the Globe in supporting, and as a result the numbers for the supporting categories have now dipped below 50%. Typically I would say this meant bad news for Mo'Nique and her win for Precious last night, but both her and Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds) have nothing to fear, they represent a pair of mortal locks to win on March 7 for Best Supporting Actress and Actor. So in 2011 both of those percentages will get a little bump.
Even though the lead actress category here didn't get a bump due to the Kate Winslet mix-up, that 76% likelihood the Oscars will repeat the Globe result means big things for Sandra Bullock who appears to have found her very own Erin Brockovich in The Blind Side. Will we be seeing magazine covers dubbing her the new America's Sweetheart, or will Meryl Streep take home her third Oscar for Julie and Julia?
On the men's side I think we have a two horse race, between last night's Globe winner Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) and Up In the Air star George Clooney. Bridges taking the award last night is a really good start for him and should he continue the trend at the Screen Actors Guild Awards on January 23 things will look even brighter. After all, last year Mickey Rourke took home the Globe only to lose to Sean Penn at the Oscars. Penn also won the SAG award. Perhaps there is something in the Globe/SAG combo.
I am still convinced Kathryn Bigelow is going to become the first female director to win the Oscar despite James Cameron's win last night, but the numbers tell me I am statistically wrong with 68% of the past 25 Globe winners going on to win at the Oscars. However, I just can't imagine the Academy denying themselves the chance to name their first female directorial winner. After all, the Globes had nothing to worry about, they already handed a female the Globe for Best Director. What? You didn't know that? Yeah, and it wasn't Jane Campion or Sofia Coppola, not even Nancy Meyers, Nora Ephron or Nicki Caro. Nope it was the well-respected directorial talents of one Barbra Streisand in her directorial debut Yentl back in 1984. She ultimately wasn't even nominated for an Oscar. Sadly I was saving that little nugget for my Golden Globe live blog last night, but after Bigelow didn't win I just couldn't figure out how to fit it in.
Below is a list of the instances in the last 25 years where the director winners didn't match up:
- The Globe went to Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) and Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men) took home the Oscar in 2008.
- The Globe went to Martin Scorsese (Gangs of New York) and Roman Polanski (The Pianist) took home the Oscar in 2003.
- The Globe went to Robert Altman (Gosford Park) and Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind) took home the Oscar in 2002.
- The Globe went to Ang Lee (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon) and Steven Soderbergh (Traffic) took home the Oscar in 2000.
- The Globe went to Milos Forman (The People vs. Larry Flynt) and Anthony Minghella (The English Patient) took home the Oscar in 1997.
- The Globe went to Oliver Stone (JFK) and Jonathan Demme (Silence of the Lambs) took home the Oscar in 1992.
- The Globe went to Clint Eastwood (Bird) and Barry Levinson (Rain Man) took home the Oscar in 1989.
- The Globe went to John Huston (Prizzi's Honor) and Sydney Pollack (Out of Africa) took home the Oscar in 1986.
I was already beginning to think Avatar was going to take the Oscar for Best Picture, and its win last night will go a long way in making me more comfortable with that decision when I update my Oscar predictions tomorrow. 72% of the Golden Globe winners for Best Picture have gone on to take the Oscar. Granted the Globes have both the Drama and Musical/Comedy
winners to bolster their chances in matching up, but I don't think anyone is counting on The Hangover making a serious bid for a Best Picture win, let alone a nomination.
So there you have it folks, the nominations for the 82nd Academy Awards® will be announced on Tuesday, February 2, 2010, at 5:30 a.m. PT in the Academy’s Samuel Goldwyn Theater with the big show taking place on Sunday, March 7, 2010. RopeofSilicon will once again be live and updating with a live diary and winners as they happen and if you weren't with us last night you can check out the 2010 Golden Globe winners here and my live blog of the event here.