Golden Globe Winners vs. Oscars: The 2014 Update!

Golden Globe Winners compared to Oscars
Photo: Hollywood Foreign Press Association / AMPAS

For a second year in a row -- and this is looking like how it's going to be from now on -- the Golden Globe winners have been revealed ahead of the Oscar nominations have not yet been announced. The Oscar nominations come this Thursday morning while Thursday night the Broadcast Film Critics Association (BFCA) will announce the winners of the 2014 Critics Choice Awards on Thursday night followed by the Screen Actors Guild Awards on Saturday. So, yeah, it's time to start looking at these things even closer.

As I have done for the last several years, today I offer my eighth installment of my "Globes vs. Oscars" column (2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013) and we'll take a look at the past 29 years of Golden Globe winner history compared to the Oscars and see where last night's winners may gain an edge and where they most likely won't and we'll begin with the lead acting categories.

Best Lead Actor and Actress
Actor: 19 of the last 29 Globe winners won the Oscar
Actress: 23 of the last 29 Globe winners won the Oscar

amy-adamsAs always the acting categories benefit from having two chances to win considering there are Drama and Comedy/Musical categories and as the numbers indicate, the winners of Best Actress from last night have a 79.3% chance of also taking home the Oscar based on the last 29 years of winners and there is little chance it won't happen again this year as Cate Blanchett has long been the presumed winner for Blue Jasmine. Where the category gets interesting is when you consider the win for Amy Adams (American Hustle) last night.

As of right now I don't have Adams predicted to get a nomination for Best Actress at the Oscars. My five slots include Blanchett, Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks), Judi Dench (Philomena), Sandra Bullock (Gravity) and Meryl Streep (August: Osage County). All five of those women were nominated for a Golden Globe, Streep however, was the only one in the same category as Adams (Comedy/Musical). So what to do?

Considering the Globe winners were announced after Oscar voting ended, the win won't sway Academy voters in the least and as far as I can tell this is a race between Adams and Streep. And in campaign terms, Sony vs. Weinstein. Tough call, but the percentages certainly tell us no matter who is nominated, Blanchett is likely to win.

Now the Best Actor race is really getting interesting. Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) has long been considered the front-runner, but with his win last night and growing support for the film, Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) is pushing hard to the hole. Then you have to ask if you think Comedy/Musical winner, Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street) can edge out Bruce Dern (Nebraska), Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips) or Robert Redford (All is Lost) for a nomination.

While the fact DiCaprio wasn't nominated by the Screen Actors Guild looms, that's because most of them had not even seen the film. Of course, once again, we're talking about a possible nomination for DiCaprio while the winner conversation is now between Ejiofor and McConaughey and while he lost last night, the numbers suggesting Ejiofor can still win are far better than those for Best Actress.

Best Supporting Actor and Actress
Supporting Actor: 18 of the last 29 Globe winners won the Oscar
Supporting Actress: 16 of the last 29 Globe winners won the Oscar

jennifer-lawrenceMoving to the Supporting categories we begin to see a larger disparity now that the Golden Globes only have one chance to match Oscar, not two and the numbers aren't all that impressive and certainly don't suggest Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) and Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) are going to easily walk into a win at the Oscars. In fact, based on the last 29 years Lawrence has only a 55.1% chance of winning while Leto has a 62% chance.

Last year the Globes and Oscars matched up exactly, but this year I'm predicting a split at the moment with Leto taking Supporting and Lawrence losing to Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave). However, Lawrence is certainly the girl of the moment and should she find love at the Screen Actors Guild Awards on Saturday I'll have to reconsider my current rankings.

Best Director
17 of the last 29 Globe winners won the Oscar

Another category the Golden Globes fail to serve as a good predictor for the Oscars is Best Director. In fact the last four years have seen a different director win the Oscar. Will 2014 make it five in a row?

Last night Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity) took home the honor and I currently have him second only to Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave) in my Best Director predictions. The only real threat to either of them is David O. Russell (American Hustle), but I think it's quite clear we're looking at a race between two men at this point and if you look at the last 29 years of Globe winners, a 58.6% chance of winning is, at least, a little bit of an edge.

Just below I've listed the recent discrepancies between the Globes and Oscars for this category.

  • The Globe went to Ben Affleck (Argo) and Ang Lee (Life of Pi) took home the Oscar in 2013.
  • The Globe went to Martin Scorsese (Hugo) and Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) took home the Oscar in 2012.
  • The Globe went to David Fincher (The Social Network) and Tom Hooper (The King's Speech) took home the Oscar in 2011.
  • The Globe went to James Cameron (Avatar) and Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker) took home the Oscar in 2010.
  • The Globe went to Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) and Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men) took home the Oscar in 2008.
  • The Globe went to Martin Scorsese (Gangs of New York) and Roman Polanski (The Pianist) took home the Oscar in 2003.
  • The Globe went to Robert Altman (Gosford Park) and Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind) took home the Oscar in 2002.
  • The Globe went to Ang Lee (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon) and Steven Soderbergh (Traffic) took home the Oscar in 2000.
  • The Globe went to Milos Forman (The People vs. Larry Flynt) and Anthony Minghella (The English Patient) took home the Oscar in 1997.
  • The Globe went to Oliver Stone (JFK) and Jonathan Demme (Silence of the Lambs) took home the Oscar in 1992.
  • The Globe went to Clint Eastwood (Bird) and Barry Levinson (Rain Man) took home the Oscar in 1989.
  • The Globe went to John Huston (Prizzi's Honor) and Sydney Pollack (Out of Africa) took home the Oscar in 1986.
Best Picture
20 of the last 29 Globe winners won the Oscar
Who will win Best Picture at the 2014 Oscars?

Of the major categories, Best Picture is second only to Best Actress when looking at the percentage chance the Globes match up with the eventual Oscar winner, and with 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle winning last night I can only assume it's going to match up yet again with Gravity being the only film I can see playing a possible spoiler.

And so that does, but please note, not only were the Oscar nominees voted on before last night's Golden Globe winners were announced, the HFPA and Academy are two dramatically different organizations. However, it would be silly to think last night's wins won't have an effect (however slight) on the Oscar race, but as you can see from the numbers above, the effects can vary.

The 2014 Oscar Award nominations will be announced this Thursday, January 16 and the awards will be held on Sunday, March 2. Just as we did last night for the Golden Globes, we will be live blogging and announcing the winners as they happen.

If you weren't with us last night you can check out the 2014 Golden Globe winners here and mine and Laremy's live blog of the event here.

In addition to that, I will continue to update my Oscar predictions and you can always find those here. I am also tracking all the major precursor winners in my Oscar Overture and be sure to keep up-to-date with what is coming up next with my Awards Calendar, which tells us the next major awards to be handed out are the Screen Actors Guild Awards this coming Saturday, January 18. We will be live-blogging the SAGs as well so be sure and join us then.

  • J.R.Meehl

    So basically what we have here is an indication that, generally speaking, the movies that win awards are indeed, the best films, so it makes sense for them to win both, as they are the best. However, with most of the categories only ranging in 50-60% agreement, there isn't enough for a positive correlation where it is implied that the Globes somehow make the odds better to win an Oscar.

    • Newbourne

      No, the movies that win awards are not "the best films". They are the most hyped films at the time. Winners would change depending on which week the voting takes place. Had voting for the Oscars taken place January 1, you wouldn't see The King's Speech or Slumdog Millionaire as Best Picture winners.

      • J.R.Meehl

        Well, the voting did take place over the first this year. I have a mathematical formula that has predicted the Best Picture Award winner every year since I started. The formula takes a lot into consideration, but I don't account for hype, just opinions about the artistic merit of the film. I predicted Argo as the winner in December 2012, before it won any award, it wasn't the most hyped film at Oscar voting time. If Oscar voting time was in June, would the Avengers have won. Not a chance.

        • Newbourne

          Argo was probably not the frontrunner at the time people voted, evidenced by Ben Affleck's snub in the nominations. It was only until everyone else gave Argo the award that Oscar followed suit.

          • J.R.Meehl

            Well then why did it win the Golden Globes? Some of the groups had already voted for it to win before, it wasn't a reaction.

            • Newbourne

              Not the frontrunner at the Academy. After the HFPA and everyone picked it, the Academy followed suit.

              I remember reading an interview about an Oscar voter who was really perplexed about who to vote for Director because "there wasn't any frontrunner". That basically means he only votes for whoever is the most hyped at the moment, and because Affleck wasn't nominated, he didn't know who to choose.

  • Ian

    For Best Picture, it's now clear the race is between American Hustle and 12 Years a Slave. Hustle would appear to be the frontrunner right now, but much will depend on how the SAG ensemble and PGA awards go. If those two films split those two awards and, say, Cuaron wins the DGA, this might be a legitimate down to the wire Best Picture race, which is extraordinarily rare and definitely hasn't happened in the last five years. But if either film wins both of those awards, I think it becomes the fronrunner. Were I to hedge a bet I would guess American Hustle wins the SAG ensemble and 12 Years a Slave wins the PGA. I'm convinced Cuaron will (undeservedly) win both the DGA and the Directing Oscar, but given the strong correlation between those two awards I'd expect them to match up again whichever way it goes, with McQueen and Russell being the only other viable candidates. Gravity has no chance to win Best Picture, especially if it couldn't win from the HFPA. But if say the SAG and PGA split but McQueen wins the DGA, that's huge for 12 Years a Slave.

    In the acting categories I'll likely align my predictions with the SAGs. I'm very confident Jared Leto will sweep his way to an Oscar win, and I expect Blanchett will win the SAG en route to an Oscar triumph as well. I would love to see Amy Adams knock Sandra Bullock out of the Oscar nominations, but given that she isn't up for a SAG she has very little chance to compete at the Oscars. I still think there's a possibility Dench or even Thompson could win the SAG, but if Blanchett takes it she probably has it wrapped up.

    The Best Actor field is really starting to frustrate me after seeing Her and Inside Llewyn Davis. Phoenix and Isaac are both far more deserving than Hanks...I haven't seen Nebraska or The Butler but I seriously doubt Dern or Whitaker could impress me as much as the former two. This felt like a lock for Ejiofor, and maybe McCouaughey's win last night had more to do with star power and recognizing his career renaissance than anything else. But I'm now expecting Dallas Buyers Club to be the tenth Best Picture nominee as it seems to have all kinds of buzz beyond the performances, so this will be an interesting one at the SAGs (which unfortunately I won't be able to watch live). If Ejiofor wins the SAG (which I still think will happen, though with much less confidence than I had yesterday) I'd expect him to carry on to the Oscar. But if McConaughey wins or they do something screwy like give it to Dern, this becomes a wide open race.

    The Globes didn't nominate Oprah, while the SAGs did and I expect the Academy will as well. I think the whole universe is absolutely in love with Lawrence right now, so no matter what happens at the SAGs I'll still consider the possibility she could take the Oscar. If she wins the SAG it's done, but if Oprah or Lupita Nyong'o wins it the race is probably between the winner and Lawrence.

    Right now my predictions for the Big Six look like this, with the understanding that much can change over the next two weeks as all those Academy-affiliated guilds start voting:

    Best Picture: American Hustle
    Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron
    Best Actor: Chiwetel Ejiofor
    Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
    Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto
    Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence

    • TheLastEquivocationofBrist

      Of the two presumed frontrunners for Best Picture, one is #9 on my personal top ten of 2013, and the other isn't in my top ten at all. This is one reason I start to lose interest in the awards race.

      Of course, as BnL have said, I still must be thankful awards season exists since a lot of the good movies wouldn't even be made otherwise. And I'm sure reading BnL's live blog will be more fun that actually watching the Oscars :)

    • JMan11

      Please explain why Cuaron winning would be 'undeserved'. Not since Buster Keaton made 'Sherlock Jr.' or Eisenstein's 'Potemkin' has a film so utterly reinvented the language of cinema itself. Never has the fourth wall been so completely shattered. The performances were fantastic, not to mention the guy was working with technology and techniques that have never been used by anybody, ever. So again, explain why a Cuaron win would be 'undeserving'. You clearly love movies, and are entitled to you opinion, but what is say is factually incorrect.

  • Heather Martin

    I still hope I see 12 Years a Slave as the frontrunner after the Oscar Nominations Thursday, and the SAG Awards. I seriously don't think American Hustle is at all deserving of any major awards and will be severley disappointed should it steal the Best PIcture Award.

    However, I hope to see Amy Adams up again, even if I wasn't crazy about her performance.

    As well, I'm still solidly rooting for Chiwetel Ejiofor and, though I haven't seen Dallas Buyers Club yet, I'll be disappointed if he loses.

    Director, I feel Cuaron is incredibly deserving for his work, but I would love to see Steve McQueen take it in the end. No African-American has ever won a Best Director Oscar, and I think this would be a wonderful opportunity and a perfect candidate to finally do it.

    We shall see in a few months though!

    • tomsawyer

      I'm also rooting for Ejiofor and McQueen, though I wouldn't be especially upset if Cuaron wins.
      And even if Steve McQueen wins, no African-American would have won (he's British, not American).

      • Heather Martin

        Fair enough. Am I just allowed to say a Black man has never won?

    • Newbourne

      LOL at calling Steve McQueen an African-American

      • Heather Martin

        you guys know what I meant :P African-American has gotta be like the ultimate political-correctness that it literally doesn't mean anything and is used way too widely (or at least that's the way it's used where I am). I have corrected myself (and yes I did know McQueen is a Brit!)

  • Carlos.

    This is probably not going to be a popular opinion, but I think that Julia Roberts in August Osage County had the strongest performance in the Best Supp. Actress field.
    Though the problem with her is that she's clearly a co-lead rather than supporting.

    • Burt Mizaki

      I agree, if I were one of the voting members, that would be my vote. She stole it in the "Fish scene". JLawrence didn't convince me, rather irritated me.

    • Newbourne

      Sally Hawkins was better. So was Lupita N'yongo and Oprah Winfrey.

  • Art

    Last year the winners at Golden Globes were almost perfect predictors. They went 10/11 and only got Director wrong like everyone else.

  • kathrynlynn

    i was surprised, honestly, to see jennifer lawrence take home the win last night- i really thought she was great in american hustle but find some of the performances in that category a little more interesting. do you think there'll be any crazy nominations that come in as a surprise? like fruitvale getting some love or lone survivor? i think peter berg did a fantastic job... is there no chance for a director nom?

  • topyxyz

    I really hope Her can sneak in there...

    • Newbourne

      I want Her to win everything. Best Actor? Joaquin Phoenix. Best Actress? Scarlett Johansson. Supporting Actress? Amy Adams. Director? Spike Jonze. Original Screenplay? Spike Jonze. Adapted Screenplay? Hell, give it to Spike Jonze. Supporting Actor? How about Chris Pratt! Original Score, Original Song, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Cinematography, Visual Effects, Editing, Foreign Language Film, you name it, give it to Her!