For a second year in a row -- and this is looking like how it's going to be from now on -- the Golden Globe winners have been revealed ahead of the Oscar nominations have not yet been announced. The Oscar nominations come this Thursday morning while Thursday night the Broadcast Film Critics Association (BFCA) will announce the winners of the 2014 Critics Choice Awards on Thursday night followed by the Screen Actors Guild Awards on Saturday. So, yeah, it's time to start looking at these things even closer.
As I have done for the last several years, today I offer my eighth installment of my "Globes vs. Oscars" column (2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013) and we'll take a look at the past 29 years of Golden Globe winner history compared to the Oscars and see where last night's winners may gain an edge and where they most likely won't and we'll begin with the lead acting categories.
As always the acting categories benefit from having two chances to win considering there are Drama and Comedy/Musical categories and as the numbers indicate, the winners of Best Actress from last night have a 79.3% chance of also taking home the Oscar based on the last 29 years of winners and there is little chance it won't happen again this year as Cate Blanchett has long been the presumed winner for Blue Jasmine. Where the category gets interesting is when you consider the win for Amy Adams (American Hustle) last night.
As of right now I don't have Adams predicted to get a nomination for Best Actress at the Oscars. My five slots include Blanchett, Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks), Judi Dench (Philomena), Sandra Bullock (Gravity) and Meryl Streep (August: Osage County). All five of those women were nominated for a Golden Globe, Streep however, was the only one in the same category as Adams (Comedy/Musical). So what to do?
Considering the Globe winners were announced after Oscar voting ended, the win won't sway Academy voters in the least and as far as I can tell this is a race between Adams and Streep. And in campaign terms, Sony vs. Weinstein. Tough call, but the percentages certainly tell us no matter who is nominated, Blanchett is likely to win.
Now the Best Actor race is really getting interesting. Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) has long been considered the front-runner, but with his win last night and growing support for the film, Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) is pushing hard to the hole. Then you have to ask if you think Comedy/Musical winner, Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street) can edge out Bruce Dern (Nebraska), Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips) or Robert Redford (All is Lost) for a nomination.
While the fact DiCaprio wasn't nominated by the Screen Actors Guild looms, that's because most of them had not even seen the film. Of course, once again, we're talking about a possible nomination for DiCaprio while the winner conversation is now between Ejiofor and McConaughey and while he lost last night, the numbers suggesting Ejiofor can still win are far better than those for Best Actress.
Moving to the Supporting categories we begin to see a larger disparity now that the Golden Globes only have one chance to match Oscar, not two and the numbers aren't all that impressive and certainly don't suggest Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) and Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) are going to easily walk into a win at the Oscars. In fact, based on the last 29 years Lawrence has only a 55.1% chance of winning while Leto has a 62% chance.
Last year the Globes and Oscars matched up exactly, but this year I'm predicting a split at the moment with Leto taking Supporting and Lawrence losing to Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave). However, Lawrence is certainly the girl of the moment and should she find love at the Screen Actors Guild Awards on Saturday I'll have to reconsider my current rankings.
Another category the Golden Globes fail to serve as a good predictor for the Oscars is Best Director. In fact the last four years have seen a different director win the Oscar. Will 2014 make it five in a row?
Last night Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity) took home the honor and I currently have him second only to Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave) in my Best Director predictions. The only real threat to either of them is David O. Russell (American Hustle), but I think it's quite clear we're looking at a race between two men at this point and if you look at the last 29 years of Globe winners, a 58.6% chance of winning is, at least, a little bit of an edge.
Just below I've listed the recent discrepancies between the Globes and Oscars for this category.
- The Globe went to Ben Affleck (Argo) and Ang Lee (Life of Pi) took home the Oscar in 2013.
- The Globe went to Martin Scorsese (Hugo) and Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) took home the Oscar in 2012.
- The Globe went to David Fincher (The Social Network) and Tom Hooper (The King's Speech) took home the Oscar in 2011.
- The Globe went to James Cameron (Avatar) and Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker) took home the Oscar in 2010.
- The Globe went to Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) and Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men) took home the Oscar in 2008.
- The Globe went to Martin Scorsese (Gangs of New York) and Roman Polanski (The Pianist) took home the Oscar in 2003.
- The Globe went to Robert Altman (Gosford Park) and Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind) took home the Oscar in 2002.
- The Globe went to Ang Lee (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon) and Steven Soderbergh (Traffic) took home the Oscar in 2000.
- The Globe went to Milos Forman (The People vs. Larry Flynt) and Anthony Minghella (The English Patient) took home the Oscar in 1997.
- The Globe went to Oliver Stone (JFK) and Jonathan Demme (Silence of the Lambs) took home the Oscar in 1992.
- The Globe went to Clint Eastwood (Bird) and Barry Levinson (Rain Man) took home the Oscar in 1989.
- The Globe went to John Huston (Prizzi's Honor) and Sydney Pollack (Out of Africa) took home the Oscar in 1986.
Of the major categories, Best Picture is second only to Best Actress when looking at the percentage chance the Globes match up with the eventual Oscar winner, and with 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle winning last night I can only assume it's going to match up yet again with Gravity being the only film I can see playing a possible spoiler.
And so that does, but please note, not only were the Oscar nominees voted on before last night's Golden Globe winners were announced, the HFPA and Academy are two dramatically different organizations. However, it would be silly to think last night's wins won't have an effect (however slight) on the Oscar race, but as you can see from the numbers above, the effects can vary.
The 2014 Oscar Award nominations will be announced this Thursday, January 16 and the awards will be held on Sunday, March 2. Just as we did last night for the Golden Globes, we will be live blogging and announcing the winners as they happen.
In addition to that, I will continue to update my Oscar predictions and you can always find those here. I am also tracking all the major precursor winners in my Oscar Overture and be sure to keep up-to-date with what is coming up next with my Awards Calendar, which tells us the next major awards to be handed out are the Screen Actors Guild Awards this coming Saturday, January 18. We will be live-blogging the SAGs as well so be sure and join us then.