Friday Estimates

Friday Box-Office: 'Twilight: Breaking Dawn' Will be #1 for Third Week in a Row While 'Hugo' Hangs Strong

'The Muppets' just aren't as strong as we thought they may be

Friday Box-Office Estimates
Asa Butterfield in Hugo
Photo: Paramount Pictures

Looks like The Muppets just don't have the box-office power we thought they might as The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 1 is looking at a third weekend in the #1 slot in a row after an estimated $5.5 million on Friday which should result in a $17 million three-day weekend, which will bring its domestic cume close to $250 million.

Breaking Dawn already passed the $500 million mark worldwide and with this weekend's result will become the first of the four films in the franchise to actually hold on to the #1 spot three weekends in a row. As a matter of fact, The Twilight Saga: New Moon was the only other film in the franchise to win two weekends in a row and remains the highest grossing film in the franchise in terms of worldwide totals with $709 million and it looks like it will remain the franchise's top earner, but will Breaking Dawn - Part 2 topple it next November?

In second are The Muppets with $2.7 million, a film Laremy predicted would hit $16.75 million for the weekend, but it's looking more like $10 million at this point or maybe a tiny bit more considering it is a family film headed into Saturday and Sunday.

Budgeted at $45 million (though I have to assume the marketing budget on this one was astronomical), this will put The Muppets around the $56 million range domestically after this weekend, but wow, should this hit $11 million we're still talking about a 62% drop from last weekend. Granted, it did open on a Wednesday so a larger drop would be expected, but I'm not sure many expected this large of a drop.

In third we have one of the success stories of the year so far, at least compared to expectation as the massive $150 million budget for Hugo is going to make it hard for it to be a financial success at the box-office, but with another $2 million on Friday and a weekend that could end around $10 million, the film is still doing quite well in only 1,840 theaters. We're looking at a $5,434 per theater return should it hit $10 million for the three-day. Question is, can it expand and improve on these numbers or has it already hit its peak? After all, it's only looking at a domestic cume of $27.5 million or so after this weekend, though I anticipate it doing well overseas where it just opened in the UK and Turkey this weekend.

Elsewhere, The Descendants expanded to 574 theaters this weekend and pulled in $1.4 million and should hit around $4.5 million for the weekend.

Opening in only ten theaters in five cities, Steve McQueen's NC-17-rated Shame brought in an impressive $110,476. The Weinstein's The Artist expanded to San Francisco for a total of six theaters and brought in $55,574 on Friday and fellow Weinstein release, My Week with Marilyn, brought in $345,000 from 244 theaters.

I have included the top ten below courtesy of The Hollywood Reporter and will be back on Sunday with a complete weekend wrap-up.

  1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 1 - $5.5 million
  2. The Muppets - $2.7 million
  3. Hugo - $2 million
  4. Arthur Christmas - $1.6 million
  5. Jack and Jill - $1.5 million
  6. The Descendants - $1.4 million
  7. Happy Feet Two - $1.4 million
  8. Immortals - $1.3 million
  9. Tower Heist - $1.2 million
  10. J. Edgar - $710,000
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  • Aubrey Reade

    Omg. Omg. Omg. Breaking Dawn - Part 1 is going to be the biggest movie of the holiday season! I could, like, die. But I can’t cause I have to see Part 2! It’s going to be EPIC!!!!! I can’t waittttttt! :)

    • Khaira

      Hehe...After reading that and a couple of your earlier similar posts , i'm gettin a feeling that u're actually being sarcastic in a weird way instead of a fawning fangirl.....

  • meme

    Shame opened in 9 theatres, not 10.

  • The Dude

    The Descendants is NOT in 2,549. It is in 549 theatres.

    • The Dude

      I mean 574 theatres.

    • m1

      Yeah, if it had a $5 million weekend in 2,000+ theaters, that would be a huge flop.

  • Stiggy

    "The Muppets arem't as strong as we thought they may be."

    Since when were the Muppets ever bankable in the first place?

    • Herald7

      Um the Muppets were hugely successful in their day and families still enjoy watching them. You might want to do some research.

      • mfan

        Although Muppet movies can struggle to make any money in and of themselves, Disney is making money off the brand through theme park rides, Direct to DVD titles, and tie-ins of Muppet expertise for their animatronics and even cruise ship entertainment. And of course, merchandising. Lately, they have been making free Muppet Youtube videos, clearly to keep the brand in the public eye for merchandising and branding purposes.

  • mfan

    Hmm. A first glance at the annual report of Viacom seems to indicate that their film division (Paramount) spent $27.5 million on overhead expenses per wide release (18) for FY2011. No wonder they like blockbusters.

  • http://topyxyz.wordpress.com Topyxyz

    Didn't expect The Muppets to be frontloaded. Still, I believe it still has a chance of cracking $100M.

    Next Week, Twilight's goin' down!

    As for Hugo, It'll probably gain more theaters next week, albeit dropping by about 10-20%.

  • Stiggy

    When in doubt, go with Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.

    • Winchester

      Not when it's only currently down for release in four locations.

      • Stiggy

        You're right on that front. However I sense that TTSS will expand big time at Christmas.

  • http://www.herald7.wordpress.com Herald7

    This article is really an overreaction. To make it to #2 just behind Twilight and beat those CGI kids films is an accomplishment.