Friday Box-Office: 'Rio' Scares Up $10.1 Million and Will Best 'Scream 4' for the Weekend Title
'The Conspirator' also has a strong showing
I can't blame Laremy for predicting Scream 4 to beat Rio this weekend. There are some easy theories to follow that would lead him to such a conclusion such as built-in audience and the fact Rio was sure to lose a tiny bit of steam considering the last two week's box-office #1 Hop was still in theaters. However, there is also a lesson to be learned here, never underestimate the family dollar and a parent's incentive to put something in front of their children's eyes to keep 'em quiet for 96 minutes.
As it turns out, based on Friday's estimates, Laremy actually did quite well predicting Rio, he just dramatically overestimated Scream 4's numbers. Laremy pegged Rio for $36.1 million for the weekend and after its estimated $10.1 million on Friday that is exactly where it looks it will end up. His $44.5 million prediction for Scream 4, however, is looking to be about double of what the film will end up taking after an opening Friday of $7.9 million.
While Laremy's prediction on Scream 4 is off, this isn't a disappointing effort for the horror, what will be disappointing is if it is massively front-loaded, because a $20-22 million return does not make for a very large front-load. The audience CinemaScore for this one is a B-, which is quite good, so perhaps this one will have legs.
And speaking of legs, check out the film in the #3 position. FilmDistrict is grinning ear-to-ear as it looks to best all of last week's newcomers with Insidious, the other horror in theaters, which took in an estimated $2.3 million and should translate to about a $6.3 million weekend signaling a mere 32% drop. Should Scream 4 be able to duplicate a similar track record it will be well on its way to a Scream 5. As for Insidious, it will likely end the weekend with a domestic cume of over $35 million, which on a $1.5 million budget is pretty damned impressive.
As for last week's new releases, they're in a log jam with Hop right behind Insidious, all taking in estimates from $2-2.2 million and I can't see them separating much as each serves a different audience. It would be nice to see Hanna rise out of the pack, as it did last week when it slipped just above Arthur for the #2 slot.
Robert Redford's The Conspirator, which looks to have a surprisingly impressive debut as it was showing in only 707 theaters and made $1.1 million on Friday, and should move to around $3.5 million for the weekend. A positive result.
The final newcomer on the board is Atlas Shrugged: Part I which is heading to a strong $2.1-2.4 million for the weekend after $670,000 on Friday from just 299 screens.
I have included Friday's top ten below and will be back on Sunday morning with a complete wrap-up
- Rio – $10.1 million
- Scream 4 – $7.9 million
- Insidious – $2.3 million
- Hop – $2.2 million
- Soul Surfer – $2.12 million
- Hanna – $2.1 million
- Arthur – $2.0 million
- Source Code – $1.8 million
- Your Highness – $1.2 million
- The Conspirator – $1.1 million
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Well damn, Atlas Shrugged looks like it's actually going to make some money. I'm quite torn, because I love the book so much (and I'm going to end up watching the movie at some point), but this adaptation seems to be such a blah effort. I was sure it would be a dud at the box office, even if it was good, simply because of its utterly-unmarketed indy status. But $2.1-2.4 mil should translate to $7000-8000 PTA, which is really quite good. Maybe Parts II and III will be made after all.
I hope Scream 4 is not frontloaded and will have good legs. It's a great movie, maybe modern audiences just don't care about the franchise anymore, but word of mouth could increase its gross in the long term.
As I said, it's a great movie, should be succesfull not because I want Scream 5 (I don't), but because it deserves.
And surprising results for Atlas Shrugged.
I though nobody would bother watching it. Ayn Rand is pop now? =P
What about next weekened? Will Rio hold off over two new debuts like Rango did? I'm thinking yes
You mean Hop right? Rango never held off Battle LA.
No. The last Madea film made 41 million opening weekend and the new one is tracking to do the same. Tyler Perry fanbase always show up. Rio will half to increase to beat Madea. I don't see that happening.
Well, look what tracking did to Scream 4. I wouldn't be surprised if Rio held off the Madea movie.
Scream and Madea are way different. It has been 11 years since the last scream. Fanbase has moved on. Tyler Perry's fanbase is alive and well.
I can not see Rio beating Madea next weekend. Madea films always open big. Tyler perry's fans is huge and Madea always tops the Boxoffice. I see rio doing 23 and Madea doing 35-40 million.
Right there with you. Rio might hold a bit better since spring break for the kiddos is coming right up, but Madea's guarenteed at least $25 million next weekend (and that's on the low end), and it can go up to $40 million if it becomes as big as Madea Goes to Jail was.
Yea, but we're feeling the effects of a crappy economy. It's possible for Madea to disappoint.
People will come out to a movie regardless of a "crappy economy"; it's all about making a movie that people want to see.
Madea Goes to Jail was released during the height of the economic crisis & was still able to make $41 million over a 3-day period. I'm not sure if this new Madea film will make that much, but it has the chance.
I forgot that the people who actually wanted to see Atlas Shrugged are crazy people so…yeah, that movie's doing alright. It's getting shredded by critics (is it still at 0% at RT?), but that audience doesn't care.
Scream 4's downfall is that R-rating. If it were PG-13, it be different. Rio has it on the ropes because it is a family film.
You are right, however the 25 of us that went last night would have definitely skipped it if it had been PG-13
Yikes for Scream. That'll probably only translate to $20 million at best. I'm also shocked that Insidious held on so well again; going up against a newer horror film I figured it would have plunged. But maybe it's a sign of the shift in the horror genre; slasher films are on the way out. Scream won't even do half of what Friday the 13th did, and it'll be well below Nightmare on Elm St. as well. I wonder if those two turned people off to slasher reboots. That would be a shame if Scream, which by most accounts seems to be a good film as slasher flicks go, got screwed over by those two. Rio looks like it'll land right about where I thought, maybe a little under, which means Rango might hold on to the the top weekend number for at least another week. I'm surprised by The Conspirator's numbers too; it looked DOA to me but I guess they picked the right markets for a barely wide release.
Whats really sad this weekend is the fact RIo only manged $10.1 on friday, which is less than Hop's first friday. It also looks worse for the fact that Rio is IN 3D and Hop is NOT! 2D=the new 3D
the upside on these news? there won´t be a scream 5.
i got so dissapointed with s4 and it´s awful opening sequence that deserves the b.o. that´s coming; seriously the makers of s4 didn´t dare to try some new approach, kill the old leads (at least sydney, she just got sooooooo annoying in this one) and give room to the new people in the cast. plus it totally looked like a relic from another era: it´s just too nineties and after the effective take on the horror genre provided by insidious it shows that audiences got tired of serial killers on film.
such a shame.
Gotta love Insidious' grosses, I have to say. Bad result for Scream 4, I was never a fan, but still. Torn between my feelings about Rio, on one hand I don't want it to beat Rango, on the other hand we've been without a $40 million opener for so long it's ridiculous. Will something please make money?
Water For Elephants will top next weekend
Never underestimate the Madea crowd stealing the win from Patterson's nose.
I enjoyed Rio it was very entertaining. Rio is fun fot the whole family. The jokes aren't stupid the timeline was a bit different it was an amazing film I think the best Blue Sky has done and I would love to see a sequel :)