Friday Estimates

Friday Box Office: 'Hangover 2' Opens Huge as Does Malick's 'Tree of Life' in Limited Release

Records will be broken, but which ones?

The Hangover Part II poster

The Hangover Part II already ranks third among Thursday openers all-time. Only Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith ($50 million) and The Matrix Reloaded ($37.5 million) rank ahead of the $31.6 million the WB comedy pulled down two days ago. That number includes the $10.4 million the film made at midnight that day, which was the biggest of the year by more than double.

The film then continued its winning streak on Friday, dipping only 5%, bringing in an estimated $30 million, giving it over $61 million in just two days. Early predictions said it would make over $100 million for the five-day weekend, predictions then moved to $125 million, then $135 million and now $139 million. The Hangover Part II is certainly trending big, but it won't be big enough to break any Memorial Day weekend records which currently has Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End at the top with $139.8 million for the four-day weekend.

In all likelihood, The Hangover 2 will end up fourth on the Memorial Day weekend list, just ahead of The Lost World: Jurassic Park. And if you're wondering about the best three-day opening for an R-rated film it will be competing with The Matrix Reloaded's $91.7 million of which it has almost bitten off one-third, but is unlikely to catch.

As far as The Hangover 2's three-day prospects, that looks like we're talking around $85 million, which is almost $20 million more than Laremy predicted and will certainly be enough to take the weekend as well as best the record for an R-rated comedy, which is currently held by Sex and the City with $57 million.

Kung Fu Panda 2 poster

In second place on Friday was the 3D animated sequel Kung Fu Panda 2 with $13.1 million and what will likely increase to $45 million as families take to the theaters. If audiences really fall for the Panda it might be able to become the Memorial Day record holder for an animated film, a record currently held by Madagascar at $61 million, but it is going to need some help and there is always that 3D asterisk helping it along the way.

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides is looking at a $37 million three-day after an estimated $10.8 on Friday, which would signal a 58.9% drop. However, Nikkie Finke at Deadline predicts it will perform some serious magic over the three-day and end at $42 million... and I thought I was being generous with $37m.

Bridesmaids continues to hold on strong with an estimated $4.6 million on Friday and will likely end the weekend with about $15 million for a 39% dip after last week's incredibly strong hold. The Hangover obviously takes a bit of its business, but the film should hit around $83 million by the end of the day on Sunday, and with a reported $32.5 million budget that is great news as you can still tack on international dollars to that number.

Woody Allen's Midnight in Paris added 52 theaters this weekend and has found its way into the top ten after a stellar showing in only six theaters last weekend. The film took in an estimated $476,000 on Friday and will likely take $1.5 million for the three-day giving it a $25,862 per theater average. Not too shabby eh? And with a lot of room to expand.

Lastly, Terrence Malick's The Tree of Life, which won the Palme d'Or last weekend at the Cannes Film Festival, is finally in theaters and it took an estimated $115,000 from only four theaters in New York and Los Angeles, a $28,750 per theater average for one day. It will likely end the three-day weekend around $400,000 for a massive $100,000 per theater average for the weekend giving Fox Searchlight good reason why it opened it where it knew people would line up to see it. You can click here to see when the film will be heading your way.

I have included the Friday top ten directly below and will be back tomorrow morning with a complete wrap up.

  1. The Hangover Part II - $30 million
  2. Kung Fu Panda 2 - $13.1 million
  3. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides - $10.8 million
  4. Bridesmaids - $4.6 million
  5. Thor - $2.4 million
  6. Fast Five - $1.7 million
  7. Something Borrowed - $545,000
  8. Priest - $500,000
  9. Midnight in Paris - $476,000
  10. Jumping the Broom - $475,000
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  • MAK2.0

    Yup, Hangover 2 is gonna win the weekend. The family buzz did not help exactly help KFP2 considering a lot of animated family movies may been released this year and it's getting old real quick. But KFP2 will still success either domestic, internationally or worldwide. But don't always bet on the family dollar.

  • Oscar Smarty

    Kung Fu Panda was not going to do well in Friday kids were still in school but it's going to beat Hangpver today and tmrow and Mobday

    • Sela

      nope.

  • Ryan4

    This is no surprise. Everyone is rushing to see Hangover so expect a huge drop next weekend. Kung Fu Panda will probably have legs like Rio. Also would it be silly to consider all the adults are going to watch Hangover instead of taking their kids to see Panda?

  • ryan

    I still think that this will be yet another movie that 3D prices will kill it somewhat. DRive Angry, Rio, Rango? Other Recent movies? Who want to pay that much money for something that other than Avatar really is not that cool. Especially Drive Angry.

    • MAK2.0

      Rango wasn't in 3D but good point about the 3D prices.

    • Stiggy

      Replace Rango with Mars Needs Moms and you'd be spot on.

  • Ian

    I think The Hangover should start to fall off today. It'll win the weekend for sure now, but I think it could end up around $70 million. I just can't see how it would make ANOTHER $30 million today. But maybe it will. And Panda will do better today, tomorrow, and Monday, but it's still probably looking at just $60 million at best for the three-day, and probably less than that. That's less than the first, but things will look better for the whole five days. Outstanding numbers for Midnight in Paris and The Tree of Life.

  • Colin

    I'll make my ten biggest gorssers of the year predictions now

    1. Transformers 3-$457 million
    2. Harry Potter (the last fucking one)-$338 million
    3. Cars 2-$325 million
    4. Twilight (what ever edition of the mormon prophecy this is)-$310 million
    5. Hangover 1 again-$300 million
    6. Pirates of carribean patheitc attempt at a cash grab-$ 258 million
    7. x-men first class (the only comic book movie that looks worth seeing)-$240 million
    8. Captain America (because this movie season looks so horrendous, there's nothing else that I think could fill this spot)-$230 million
    9. Sherlock Holmes (I'll give it the benefit of the doubt)-$220 million
    10. Fast Five-$215-$220 million

    Alternates would be the chipmunks, the smurfs, green lantern (which looks...well...forget it it's not worth the energy) cowboys and aliens. Yup. That's the 2011 movie forecast.

    • John Debono

      I don't get your Cars 2 and Transformers 3 predictions. T3 has a huge x against it by the miserable reception of ROTF, if Pirates 4 taught us anything, a bad movie in a series can easily come back to haunt you. (Though I'm sure Bay will not find a need to jump out a window with a $300+ grosser)
      Now Cars 2, its amazing that this film even got a second film considering the relatively negative reaction to other Pixar films. No one thinks highly enough of Cars to make the follow up the third Pixar film to gross over $300 million. (Remembering that the other two are Toy Story 3 and Finding Nemo.) It should improve on its grosses internationally and domestically but there is a lot of potential for this to become Pixar's first legitimate dud.

      • Rashad

        Critics thought it was miserable. It still outgrossed the original by a big margin. It's going to crack a billion

      • Colin

        I think Rashad kind of answered this for me. T3 fans won't care about quality as long as they keep getting to see the same shit they saw in the first movies. And the third one looks to deliver. The 3D inflation will also help because these films aren't soley focusing on family audiences who have been turning away from 3D fair due to high prices. As for Cars 2, I might be a little bullish, but at the very least, 300 million would not surprise me. There is more anticipation for this film, expecially in the heartland,an audience that always suprises, than you think. Audiences are looking for an animated event for the summer and Kung Fu Panda will only be enough to serve as an apetizer when compared to Pixar.

      • m1

        I don't understand the Cars 2 hate. Yes, it looks a little generic, but if Pixar can turn their creative stories into something marvelous, I'm pretty sure they can turn something slightly generic into something credible as well. The first Cars was still well-received and holds up well. It's been years since the original, so Pixar should be able to find the films flaws and correct them so that the sequel will be an improvement.

      • Winchester

        I actually prefer Cars to other Pixar films such as A Bug's Life, The Incredibles and even Rataouille. I've never entirely understood the disdain for it myself.

        It's an animated Doc Hollywood...........but I still enjoy it more than others.

        However, there's another re Cars angle at play. I read a few weeks back on Deadline that Cars alone has earned Disney around $8 billion in Global merchandising sales since the first film in 2006. The original film may not be one of Pixar's highest grossers but it's one of their lucrative brands.

  • m1

    Brad, how on EARTH is a drop from Thursday to Friday a good thing?

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      I'm sorry, I don't follow. Did you look at previous Thursday openers and see a different trend?

      Because when I look at previous Thursday openers I see the following information when comparing Thursday to Friday:

      • Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith - 33% drop
      • The Matrix Reloaded - 16.5% drop
      • Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - 22.1% increase
      • Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones - 19% drop
      • The Last Airbender - 5.1% drop
      • Marley and Me - 3% drop
      • Sex and the City 2 - 9% drop

      So I guess when I see a 5% drop from one day to the next and one of those days included a $10.4 million midnight I consider it pretty impressive. You don't?

      • m1

        Ah, okay. It's just that usually drops from Thursday are not a good thing with most releases. I didn't realize that they were normal with films opening on Thursdays.

      • Topy

        It's actually an impressive feat. Good job to the Hangover, but I hope they get trumped by X-Men next week. just sayin'

  • WillE

    Little Kids LOVE Lightning McQueen, my son included. I don't know about 300 mil, but top at the end of the year seems likely. And Disney and Co will make plenty of money on merchandising.

  • Bustray

    That's a really nice start for the Hangover and while I don't think it will surpass the first one I think it will come close. On the other end of the spectrum, that's a really disappointing start for Kung Fu Panda 2, especially considering three years of inflation and 3D surcharges. I don't think it will pass the first one, but hopefully it will be able to manage to get across $200 million before the end of its run.

  • Vince (Not Vance)

    Is anyone else as surprised as I am by the pretty weak showing by Kung Fu Panda 2? There has been enough time since Rio's opening that KFP2 was to be a big event film for families, it's a sequel to Dreamwork's most popular non-Shrek film, it has prime positioning during one of the biggest holidays of the year...and it can only muster up $45 million from Fri-Sat?

    That's actually less than what Megamind made in November. LESS THAN MEGAMIND.

    If it has legs as strong as the first Madagascar, it could come close to $200 million, but considering price inflation & the 3D surcharge, that's a real disappointment.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      I'm not sure we can call it weak just yet. Kids were still in school on Thursday and Friday. I would be willing to bet by tomorrow morning things will look much better.

  • PirateGal

    Ok, no offense, but Pirates of the Caribbean (any of them, but especially the new one) will always be better than The Hangover- It's just tacky.
    Pirates is WAY better!

  • Winchester

    According to Deadline estimates Hangover 2 pulled in another $29 million on Saturday so it looks like it's on track to meet the current estimations.

    Did't grow, but didn't start to collapse either. That might indicate that word of mouth is different to the RT rating etc amongst the audience.

    I think KFP2 is definitely softer though. It didn't experience a significant lift on the Saturday over the Friday and it's going to come in for the 5 days only maybe about ten percent or so more than the first film did over three.