Friday Estimates

Friday Box-Office: 'Bourne Legacy' On Top, 'The Campaign' Overperforms and 'Total Recall' Takes a Tumble

'Dark Knight Rises' settles in at third still holding strong

Friday Box-Office with The Bourne Legacy on top of The CampaignIn terms of predicting the #1 film, it's been pretty easy for the last couple of months as films like The Amazing Spider-Man, Ice Age: Continental Drift, The Dark Knight Rises and now The Bourne Legacy have been the easy choices.

On Friday The Bourne Legacy got off to a decent start, pulling in $14 million, but that's not going to be enough to generate an opening weekend above $45 million ($7m shy of The Bourne Supremacy and $24m shy of The Bourne Ultimatum) and most likely a couple million shy of that number. The film has received a "B" CinemaScore from first day audience members, which is to say when people ask their friends if they should see it they're going to get an, "Eh, it's pretty good." One friend instant messaged me last night saying, "How was that supposed to work as an ending exactly? It's not even a successful cliffhanger. I'm not sure what I'm supposed to be hanging onto... Too bad, I really dug it till then." I'd say it's not a good thing to end on a sour note, but that's just me.

In second is a bit of a surprise with the Will Ferrell and Zach Galifianakis political comedy The Campaign slightly overperforming. With Mitt Romney announcing his running partner this morning perhaps that will help the film even further over the weekend as it pulled in $10.2 million on Friday and may be able to bump up against $30 million by Sunday if it's lucky. Of course, that "B-" CinemaScore isn't going to help it much.

The Dark Knight Rises falls from #1 to #3 where it will certainly end the weekend, probably with somewhere around $17-18 million continuing its solid, sub-50% drops from week to week and a cumulative domestic total somewhere around $390 million, creeping up on that #2 spot for the year currently held by The Hunger Games at $406.9 million.

In fourth is the week's other new wide release, though the Meryl Streep, Tommy Lee Jones and Steve Carell starrer Hope Springs opened on Wednesday, hoping to get a jump start on the weekend and wouldn't you know it, it's outperforming the sinking Total Recall even after $2.2 million on Wednesday and $2.1 million on Thursday with a $4.7 million Friday. You have to go all the way down to #6 to find last week's newcomer Total Recall, which opened to a weak $25.5 million last weekend and will struggle to hit $8 million this weekend and stay above a 70% drop. Ouch!

I've included Friday's estimated top ten directly below and will be back on Sunday with a complete weekend wrap-up.

  1. The Bourne Legacy - $14 million
  2. The Campaign - $10.2 million
  3. The Dark Knight Rises - $5.6 million
  4. Hope Springs - $4.7 million
  5. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days - $2.8 million
  6. Total Recall - $2.6 million
  7. Ice Age: Continental Drift - $2 million
  8. Ted - $983,000
  9. Step Up Revolution - $930,000
  10. The Watch - $660,000
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  • Winchester

    According to Box Office Mojo The Bourne Legacy budget was around $125 million and not the $90 million mark.

    I think TDKR should go to around $450 or a bit more million all in, it's too far behind TDK to make up the ground now but that's nothing to cry about I guess.

  • Creighton

    I agree about TDKR, Winchester. I assume it sits in for sometime more. I have a theory that with the olympics ending perhaps some of those people will return and it would seem like the obvious option if you hadn't been to the movies in two weeks.

  • Dan

    Cinemascore's mean sht. I mean look at drive.

    At least the Campaign got decent reviews.

    • http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/ Brad Brevet

      That's actually not true, the Cinemascore's are actually a pretty good barometer on what word of mouth on a film is going to be in the general public. Not always, nothing is infallible, but more of than not.

    • AS

      Um, Drive received mostly negative word of mouth. It was mainly cinephiles who responded to it so the Cinemascore perfectly reflected general audience appreciation.

      • Dan

        Then why did it have solid legs?

        • Hank

          Solid leg? What solid legs? Drive only made a total of $35 Million total in the U.S. The C- Cinemascore was right on target in terms of lack of good word of mouth.

          • Dan

            Yet it only made 11 million on it's opening weekend. But I guess that audiences just don't like good movies.

            Note: 78% of the users on Rotten Tomatoes said that they liked Drive. I wonder why it had such a low cinemscore, especially considering the fact that it was universally acclaimed.

          • mfan

            People also give low cinemascores if they don't get what they think was being sold. Drive was sold as an Action movie, yet it is a Suspence film.

  • jess E.

    Haven't seen either film but it looks like the studios are disappointed at the Box Office results of the "Bourne" and "The Campaign" films. For whatever reason the film "Bourne Legacy" was projected on mid day friday at 48m then by Friday night it was 44m and now this morning it is at 41m. Probably by Monday morning it will be less than 41m. "The Campaign" was projected at 30-33m at mid day Friday then dropped to 30m on Friday night and Saturday morning it is at 26m projection for the weekend. Word or mouth won't help either film. However, the brilliant "TDKR" continues to do well with a projection of some 19-20m for the weekend for a huge 391m after 25 days.