Comments on: Oscar Predictions: First Post Nomination Charts

By: Abhishek-The Oscar Maniac

Abhishek-The Oscar Maniac — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 06:25:43 +0000

Hey Danny-I agree with you…Taraji P.Henson really didnt had much to do……

By: Danny

Danny — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 01:08:56 +0000

Brad,
I was really surprised at your Best Supp. Actress choice…Taraji P. Henson? Really? Not only do I not think she is the front-runner, personally I think she was a total waste of a nominee. The role had very little depth, and paled in comparison to the other nominated performances and not nominated (Rosemaire DeWitt for Rachel Getting Married, Hiam Abbass for The Visitor, Debra Winger for Rachel Getting Married). I sincerely hope you're wrong about this one, because she was nothing more than adequate in the role (as was everyone else in that movie).
I hope Milk wins for Best Picture, upsetting the good-but-overrated Slumdog Millionaire. I would be OK with Danny Boyle winning director, though, he pieced the movie together quite well and compellingly.
As for the lead acting races, I hardly think they the "locks" you do. I hope Penn wins, but Rourke is a real competitor. As for Best Actress, the race is even tighter (and much stronger). Meryl and Kate both came away with the SAG for the movies they're nominated in, and both are long overdue for an Oscar. How can you call Winslet a lock? I actually do believe she will sneak in a win, but I think it's going to be extremely close. With those two locked at the top, I wouldn't be too surprised either if Anne Hathaway snuck in for an upset. All of the actresses this year were worthy of a nomination–it's the strongest year for actresses in a long, long time. Congratulations to them all, nominated and not nominated.
Ledger is, indeed, a lock to win the Oscar. I'd say Brolin may have edged him out for me personally, but there's no stopping Ledger and his performance was, indeed, great.
Care to explain your Taraji choice a little more? It's the only one that really threw me and that I truly disagree with.

By: Edgardo of West Hollywood

Edgardo of West Hollywood — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 20:29:23 +0000

oh for pete's sake, give it to meryl streep, she lost 12 times already. if its the basis of past and present work, she has the overall advantage, those 12 noms and then doubt, she is an outstanding actress!

i love kate but meryl is really overdue, i would be really convinced if kate was nominated for rev. road but her role in the reader is a supporting role. people will remember streep's memorable role as sister aloysius better than kate's the reader. her facial expressions in doubt is powerful enough to win her the best actress award.

i have no doubt, it will be meryl for best actress. here is my predix:

best picture: MILK
best director: danny boyle – slumdog
best actor: sean penn-MILK
best actress: meryl stree- Doubt
best sup. actor: josh brolin- Milk
best sup. actress: viola davis- Doubt

That's all!

By: Abhishek-The Oscar Maniac

Abhishek-The Oscar Maniac — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 04:40:25 +0000

Rich:You are damn right man…it is written…hell ya…Slumdog gonna win……..

By: Mark Phillips

Mark Phillips — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 14:24:47 +0000

I hope that Slumdog wins Picture and Danny Boyle wins Director. To those people who say it is an average movie, i ask you to watch it again. Benjamin Button is not any better (though a good film). Apart from that I sincerely hope Sean Penn wins best actor (unbelievable performance). Think Kate will miss out through her own fault for being a little too greedy and Meryl's performance in doubt is i'm afraid to say far more powerful.

Heath is a lock and deservingly so, even if movie-goers do not appreciate the performance.

Slumdog to dominate (hopefully)

By: Abhishek-The Oscar Maniac

Abhishek-The Oscar Maniac — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 13:44:45 +0000

Hey Brad—Just finished seeing Slumdog Millionaire 10 minutes ago…and people who are predicting about Ben Button….and then you talking about Milk shaking things up..i m sorry….Slumdog will take 6 awards home…..though i predicted Gus Van Sant for Best Director…but now i have to take back my word after seeing this one….

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Screenplay(adapted)
Best Cinematography
Best Editing
Best Song(though i think "We are coming down" will give them a tough fight but just coz it's Rahman..the Academy will honour the Indian Maestro).

I still think it can pick another award(original Score)……..

By: Rich

Rich — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 17:57:55 +0000

I'm just not seeing an Academy Slumdog backlash happening. Anecdotally, I think most people will tell you they loved the movie, and moreso than the other contenders. Sure, in another year, maybe with some true masterpiece nominees, there would be more of a fight here. The only other excellent film nominated is Milk, and between the two Slumdog strikes the better balance between crowd-pleaser and artful accomplishment. Some folks seem to be trying to make the case for Benjamin Button as a possible alternative due to its box office success, but I don't see it. Slumdog is on a box office tear right now, and most people I know who have seen BB, myself included, walked away feeling pretty "meh" about it. This is a year entirely constructed for Slumdog to win. It is…written. Sorry.

By: Tim

Tim — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 21:40:33 +0000

I will say now that I have seen all the major contenders give their performances for best actress, I feel anne hathaway deserves the oscar. Her performance was the best all around. I saw kate winslet in the reader today and personally feel she was better in revolutionary road. So she doesn't deserve it this time, sorry folks.

By: Steve

Steve — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 19:12:52 +0000

This isn't about who did or didn't win or how many wins or nominations a person had in previous years, it's about movies that came out in 2008. So with that said, Streep will win for Doubt based on the merit of that performance in a small cast full of great performances . Winslet would have won if she had been nominated in the supporting category for "The Reader" but it is not a lead actress role (and SAG voters knew it). Penn will win Best Actor. It's a nuanced performance and the movie did well at the box office and with critics. Slumdog Millionaire is a sure thing for best pic (I'd make a strong wager on that). It has gotten practically every award so far in that category -why should it go any differently with the Academy?) For supporting : Heath is a lock based on the sheer artistry of his performance. Sup. Actress I'm less certain of but think it will either be Cruz (because Allen's films do well winning in this category) or Davis (it may be short but it's happened before and the performance was incredible.

By: cler

cler — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 13:43:43 +0000

I hope kate winslet wins. I know that Meryl is the best actress alive and one of the best actresses of all time but he already has two oscar. maybe she deserved to win when she was nominated for nowhere in africa, bridges of madison county… but i think that this is not her year to win again. althought i am sure that she will win again some year. that's for sure. but kate is long overdue. her performances are all great and she should have won at least once (for eternal sunshine, she was definitely better than hilary swank). so i think this year MUST be her year. in the supporting actress category, i hope Penelope DOESN'T win. i think she's totally overrated and she doesn't deserves it. NOT YET. it's weird because i'm spanish and everyone is Spain wants Penelope to win (obviously) but i don't. so my bet is for viola davis or marisa tomei, both great actresses.

By: Tim

Tim — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 07:11:11 +0000

still gotta see the reader, I hear winslet is crazy good.

By: Tim

Tim — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 07:09:09 +0000

After some serious thought, I decided to change my stance on something. Even though I don't believe benjamin button should win best picture this years at the academy awards, I still feel it is an incredibly well crafted film. Fincher seems to have put more effort into his movie than anyone else. But what do I know. Plus, miraculously Rachel Getting Married came to a theatre on the opposite side of town, so I finally got a chance to see it. I was very surprised how natural all the conversations felt. Anne Hathaway AND her counter part Rosemarie DeWitt give incredible performances. I would say it is definitely a must see.

By: Abhishek-The Oscar Maniac

Abhishek-The Oscar Maniac — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 05:53:35 +0000

people who are not nominated for the Golden Globes are the people having maximum chance of winning the oscar.

By: han

han — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 22:45:44 +0000

eh, please tell me why it has to be winslet?

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Mighty Aphrodite (1995) – Mira Sorvino
Apollo 13 (1995) – Kathleen Quinlan
Georgia (1995) – Mare Winningham
Nixon (1995) – Joan Allen (I)
Sense and Sensibility (1995) – Kate Winslet

Best Actress in a Leading Role
As Good as It Gets (1997) – Helen Hunt (I)
Afterglow (1997) – Julie Christie (I)
Mrs Brown (1997) – Judi Dench
Titanic (1997) – Kate Winslet
Wings of the Dove, The (1997) – Helena Bonham Carter

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Beautiful Mind, A (2001) – Jennifer Connelly
Gosford Park (2001) – Helen Mirren
Gosford Park (2001) – Maggie Smith (I)
In the Bedroom (2001) – Marisa Tomei
Iris (2001/I) – Kate Winslet

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Million Dollar Baby (2004) – Hilary Swank
Being Julia (2004) – Annette Bening
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (2004) – Kate Winslet
Maria Full of Grace (2004) – Catalina Sandino Moreno
Vera Drake (2004) – Imelda Staunton

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Queen, The (2006) – Helen Mirren
Devil Wears Prada, The (2006) – Meryl Streep
Little Children (2006) – Kate Winslet
Notes on a Scandal (2006) – Judi Dench
Volver (2006/I) – Pen�lope Cruz

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Changeling (2008) – Angelina Jolie
Doubt (2008/I) – Meryl Streep
Frozen River (2008) – Melissa Leo
Rachel Getting Married (2008) – Anne Hathaway (I)
Reader, The (2008) – Kate Winslet

clearly she isn't the best among the nominees every single time.
come on, you really think the mediocre reader is worth any prize?????

By: James

James — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 22:43:54 +0000

MY WINNERS: ACTOR: Sean Penn
ACTREES: Kate Winslet
S. ACTOR: Heath Ledger
S. ACTREES: Amy Adams

By: tschwabbi

tschwabbi — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 17:43:59 +0000

@Dan Tralder: Okay, Taraji was not nominated for the golden globe, but she WAS nominated at the SAG's. and a lot of people say the SAGs are a good indicator for the oscars, but since the winner (Winslet) is no longer in that category, supporting actress is wide open. As much as i love Taraji and want her to win, my guess would go to cruz or davis, but im keeping my fingers crossed. Also are people forgetting about Ledger? If he doesnt win, i would probably start to cry. His performance was amazing, and no one is pittying his performance because he died. Also for everyone saying an oscar is overdue for Meryl, hello she has won it TWICE! One for best actress and another for best supporting actress. Do you know how many women can say that? not a lot. Winslet is much more overdue, she has given amazing performances and has been snubbed everytime (no im not saying she should have won everytime, but she should have won at least once). As for best picture i was a fan of Button and Slumdog. Milk was good, but I dont know about best picture; however thats just my opinion. I do agree that it will probably be one of those three

By: lizer

lizer — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 00:31:16 +0000

Hi Brad

I'm not agree there's a lock in the best actor category. Sean Penn & Mickey Rourke has their 50% chance each.

Sure, Sean Penn's role isn't easy & he get the SAG award. But for me there are 3 things that make Rourke's a strong contender as well:

1. Rourke's role is a very demanding one. I am agree with someone here said he can't imagine anyone else playing Randy the Ram. I'm sure years from now, it will be among the best performances lists.

2. Oscar has the tendency not to give the trophy to the same actor more then once, unless that year that particular actor is so damn good & clearly above the level of anyone else in the same category, like Tom Hanks in Forest Gump or Daniel Day-Lewis last year.
Anyone even remember the WTF Adrien Brody win? I suspect he won because every other nominees that year already won best actor.

3. His down to earth speech on Golden Globes. Who's ready for a repeat? I do.

Regards from Indonesia (no, I'm not the same as poster #27)

By: Danny

Danny — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 22:07:45 +0000

Hey Brad–

I just saw Slumdog Millionaire this afternoon and felt a lot of the same things about it that you felt. It was a nice underdog movie, and there were definitely some great moments, but it wasn't a great movie.

So tell me if I'm crazy: I think the movie would have been about 10 times better if he didn't get the question right at the end. Think about it. A lot of what made the movie so hard for me to believe was the "Just because" business. What if he guessed incorrect? Then his sitting alone in the train station makes more sense, and I think that last scene is even better. Yeah he didn't get the money, but that wasn't the point of why he went on the show–he wanted to get Lakira's attention and he succeeded. That was the real prize, that's what was the truly poignant part. The fact that he ends up a rich man as well just made it seem a lot more phony.

I'm still deciding if they would have had to change the title if this were the case, but I think it would have been much more worthy of all this awards buzz that way.

By: Neil Mackenzie

Neil Mackenzie — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 21:35:06 +0000

Whilst the Best Actor may seem to be a choice between Penn and Rourke, who could believe an actor could turn Nixon into an almost sympathetic character? I would like to see Frank Langella win here. Ok, he had a lot of material to work with (even more than Penn), but his posture, mannerisms and style were all convincing, IMHO.

By: buddy

buddy — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 18:11:24 +0000

Picture : Slumdog Millionaire (Looking @ Globes and SAG, and other attention this movie received)

Actor : Mickey Rourke (Great actor with bad past, but he repaid it all)

Actress : Either Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet, somehow Anne Hathaway will be underdog (Strongest category), but who knows, might be a tie between Meryl and Kate since both of them is overdue….

Supporting Actor : Heath Ledger (seems to be a lock)

Supporting Actress : Fight between Penelope Cruz and Viola Davis

Director : Either Gus Van Sant or Danny Boyle (but Boyle will most likely won)

So sorry for twice error.

Regards from Indonesia

By: Scott

Scott — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 17:58:02 +0000

WILL WIN:

Slumdog
Boyle
Penn
Winslet – Not a lifetime achievement, definitely one of her best performances if not the best, and this is just her year.
Ledger

And I'm pretty sure that Viola Davis will win for the same reason that Swinton won last year. This is a category where films that aren't going to win anything else get recognition. Michael Clayton was beloved by the Academy, but they didn't give it anything else because something else always trumped it. Since Doubt won't win anything else (other than maybe Streep), this is the chance to give it an award. No chance for Henson/Adams, Tomei is a major underdog, and I don't think Cruz will win either.

By: HELEN

HELEN — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 16:42:55 +0000

Slumdog Millionaire for everything!!!! Best Picture and Best Director without a doubt. Danny Boyle deserves Best Director and his film rocks!

By: Jonathan

Jonathan — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 16:18:17 +0000

SHOULD win:
Slumdog
Fincher
Rourke
Winslet (It's a crime that Sally Hawkins wasn't nominated; she was the best)
Ledger
Cruz

In Bruges for Best Original Screenplay!

By: MI

MI — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 11:41:32 +0000

MERYL STREEP – HER 3RD OSCAR IS WAY OVER DUE

Besides she was amazing in Doubt, a lot better than Kate in The Reader, which is nothing compared to Meryl's Sophie's Choice

By: loxmang

loxmang — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 04:32:57 +0000

picture: Slumdog
actor: Rourke
director: Finch
actress: Winslett
sup actor: Heath
sup actress: Henson

By: Kevin

Kevin — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 02:43:32 +0000

Should win: "Milk". Sean Penn. Meryl Streep. Josh Brolin. Viola Davis. Gus Van Sant.

Will Win: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button". Sean Penn. Meryl Streep. Heath Ledger. Penelope Cruz. Danny Boyle.

By: Bustray

Bustray — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 02:27:02 +0000

Milk is definitely the most deserving of best picture. I think, in these times with prop 8, it has a real shot at winning, and same with van sant for director. Sean Penn has won the SAG and the BFCA, and has been claimed best actor by both the NYFCC and the LAFCA. I think he's definitely a safe bet for Milk, although I hope that Richard Jenkins wins for The Visitor. Best Actress is a toss-up between Streep and Winslet. Hathaway is out of the competition by now (she's only won the BFCA, which was a tie). Supp. actor is probably going to be Ledger, but Josh Brolin has some major associations backing him, such as the National Board of Review and the NYFCC. Supp. Actress could either go to Davis or Crüz at this point. I personally hope Davis would win. Milk has no serious competition (except for maybe WALL-E, which has a slim chance) in Original screenplay, so it'll take the award there, and slumdog will probably take adapted. Bustray signing off!

By: Michael Herbertson

Michael Herbertson — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 00:37:18 +0000

Picture: Slumdog
Directing: Danny Boyle
Actor: Sean Penn
Actress: Meryl Streep
sup Actor – Heath Ledger
sup Actress: Penelope Cruz

By: Mike Littorus

Mike Littorus — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 22:17:32 +0000

BENJAMIN BUTTON SHOULD OWWWNNN!!!!

By: Risa

Risa — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 21:02:29 +0000

I'm still sticking with my last week's predictions:

Best Actor: Sean Penn(Milk)
Best Actress: Meryl Streep(Doubt)
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger(The Dark Knight)
Best Supporting Actress: Taraji P. Henson(The Curious blah blah)
Achievment in Directing: Danny Boyle(Slumdog Millionaire)
Best Picture: Milk